怀化三次西南涡暴雨天气过程对比分析          下载免费PDF全文

王强 《中低纬山地气象》2018,42(4):16-24

利用常规观测资料、地面区域气象自动站加密资料、卫星以及NCEP再分析资料,对2010年6月、2012年6月、2015年6月3次发生在湖南怀化的暴雨天气过程进行对比分析。结果表明:(1)3次过程均是典型的低涡冷槽型暴雨过程,降雨分布在低涡东南侧及其向东伸展出的切变线附近,对于低涡沿切变线东移的暴雨过程,降雨分布在低涡移动的路径上。(2)中低层中尺度低涡或辐合中心是直接造成暴雨的系统,其发展演变和移动直接影响降雨的落区和持续时间,在卫星云图上反应为中尺度云团的生消。(3)孟湾、南海是怀化暴雨的水汽源地,暴雨发生在高温高湿的不稳定层结和强水汽辐合区域,强降雨是整层水汽通量和水汽辐合共同作用的结果,当两者同步增强并达到极值时,降雨也同步增强,当两者不同步时,不能使用单一要素判断降雨,而要综合考虑。(4)3次暴雨过程都是发生在低层正涡度、负散度和高层负涡度、正散度的高低空耦合结构下。  相似文献   

近海水汽初值和对流影响一次华南前汛期沿海强降水对流系统发展过程的机理研究   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

鲁蓉  孙建华  傅慎明 《大气科学》2018,42(1):1-15

本研究在对华南季风降水试验（SCMREX）观测资料分析的基础上,采用数值模拟试验探讨南海北部区域湿度场初值误差和海上对流对2014年5月8日华南沿海地区的一次强降雨过程的中尺度对流系统（MCS）的发展和移动的影响。加密探空和风廓线观测分析表明在珠江口地区有西南风和偏东风急流形成的辐合区,为对流在该地区增强发展提供了条件。增加和减少近海湿度以及关闭积云和微物理过程潜热释放,所造成的温度场以及风场的变化对广东沿海地区的对流的强度和移动路径都有明显的影响。特别是增加海上关键区的湿度,由于海上对流的发展改变了整个区域的环流,抑制了陆地上对流的发展。关闭海上关键区对流过程潜热的释放,导致低空急流到达更加偏北的位置,对流系统在模拟的后期向东北移动。通过这些试验表明,海上的湿度等要素场和对流活动对沿海地区的降雨预报有着十分重要的影响,需要进一步加强海上观测及其资料同化方法。  相似文献   

基于小时降水资料研究北京地区降水的精细化特征   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  

杨萍  肖子牛  石文静 《大气科学》2017,41(3):475-489

根据北京全区2007~2014年117个自动气象站逐小时降水资料,在揭示降水总体时空特征的基础上,进一步研究了北京地区各季（以春、夏、秋为主）降水的精细化特征。研究发现:北京全区年均降水量存在两个高值中心（城区和下风方向的降水高值中心）,城市热岛效应可能是城区高值中心形成的重要影响因素之一;北京全区降水的季节分布不均,日分布也不均匀;城市化对北京地区降水的影响具有季节差异,夏季短历时和中历时降水在城区和东北部存在显著的大值区,受到城市热岛效应的影响可能较为明显,长历时降水在城区反而相对偏低,而春季城区短、中历时降水并未偏多,长历时降水却在城区出现明显的高值中心;降水日变化季节差异明显,春、秋两季呈现双峰型变化,而夏季呈现单峰型变化,该日变化的特征与全区降水的空间分布格局关系紧密。  相似文献   

基于NLS-4DVar方法的雷达资料同化及其在暴雨预报中的应用     

张斌  田向军  张立凤  孙建华 《大气科学》2017,41(2):321-332

在基于本征正交分解POD（Proper Orthogonal Decomposition）的集合四维变分同化方法（POD4DEnVar）建立的雷达资料同化系统（PRAS）的基础上,本文利用非线性最小二乘法的集合四维变分同化方法（NLS-4DVar）对PRAS进行改进,解决PRAS在高度非线性情况下的适应性问题,建立了新的雷达资料同化系统（NRAS）。通过观测系统模拟试验OSSEs（Observing System Simulation Experiments）和两次实际暴雨同化试验（2010年7月8日,中国中部地区;2014年3月30日,中国华南地区）对NRAS进行检验,并与PRAS的同化结果进行了对比。结果表明:无论是OSSEs还是实际雷达资料的同化,相对于PRAS,NRAS能够进一步提高同化效果。通过增加迭代的次数,NRAS能够有效地调整初始场的风场和水汽场,进一步提高了降水强度和位置的预报精度。但随着迭代次数的增加,对初始场的调整变小,进而对降水预报效果的改进也减小。试验结果表明NRAS能够有效解决PRAS在高度非线性情况下的应用问题,通过有限次数的迭代,即可得到近似收敛的结果。因而NRAS有望在数值预报中更有效地同化雷达资料,提高中小尺度天气的预报水平。  相似文献   

哀牢山降水垂直分布特征   总被引：16，自引：1，他引：15  

张克映  张一平 《地理科学》1994,14(2):144-151

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太阳辐射日变化对R15L9气候模拟效果的影响   总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12  

邵慧  王谦谦 《高原气象》1998,17(2):158-159

利用菱形截民１５波９层全球谱模式做了有、无太阳辐射日变化的对比试验,分析了模拟的平均海平面气压、５００ｈＰａ高度、地表温度和降水的１月和７月气候场,并利用统计方法做了显著性检验。结果表明：太阳辐射日变化对大气模拟有显著的影响,尤其表现在北半球和陆地上。而当忽略日变化这种物理过程时,势必影响气候模拟的效果,产生系统误差。  相似文献   

西太平洋副热带高压脊线变化与我国汛期降水的关系   总被引：12，自引：2，他引：10       下载免费PDF全文

沙万英  郭其蕴 《应用气象学报》1998,(Z1)

利用最近４６年（１９５１～１９９６年）完整而系统的副高特征量资料和全国１６０个站降水量资料进行相关普查,得出副高脊线与汛期降水关系最好．因此,我们着重讨论了副高脊线的变化与我国汛期降水的关系．研究表明副高脊线与汛期降水的高相关集中在两个时段,即同期和副高脊线超前１年左右相关最好;从区域分布看,较大范围的高相关区主要集中在长江中游—江南、东北的东南部—华北东部、河套、黄淮—江淮的东部沿海及华南中部．同时随着副高季节性北跳,高相关区也随之北移．  相似文献   

Effects of the southern oscillation on the probability for climatic categories of monthly rainfall, in a semi-arid region in the southern mid-latitudes     

Omar Abel Lucero 《Atmospheric Research》1998,49(4):337-348

In many regions of the world, planning agricultural and water management activities is usually done based on probabilities for monthly rainfall, taking on values on specified intervals of values. These intervals of monthly rainfall amounts are commonly grouped into three categories: drought, normal rainfall, and abundant rainfall. Changes in the probabilities for occurrence of monthly rainfall amounts within these climatic rainfall categories will influence the decisions farmers and water managers will take (for example, crops to cultivate, flood preparedness, and operations of water reservoirs). This research explores the changes produced by the SO (Southern Oscillation) on the probability that the areal average of monthly rainfall (AAvMR) takes on values belonging to specified climatic rainfall categories. The semi-arid region under study is a major agricultural region in central Argentina; weather effects on agriculture in this region influence the world market of several crops. The evolution of the Southern Oscillation was divided into three phases: LSOI (low Southern Oscillation index phase, that includes ENSO events), NSOI (neutral SOI phase), and HSOI (high SOI phase that includes La Niña–SO events). The following are the criteria defining the three phases of the SO: (1) low SOI (ENSO), where the five-month moving average of the SO index, SOI, is less than −0.5 standard deviation during at least five consecutive months, and is equal to or less than −1 standard deviation during at least one month; (2) high SOI (La Niña–SO), where the SOI is greater than 0.5 standard deviation during at least five consecutive months, and is equal to or greater than 1 standard deviation during at least one month; and (3) neutral SOI (transition between extremes), where the SOI does not correspond to low SOI nor to high SOI. It was found that the Southern Oscillation influences the probability distribution of monthly rainfall only in four months of the year. Findings show that monthly rainfall has a complex response to the evolution of the SO. The response is not restricted to higher probability for occurrence of abundant rainfall or drought categories during low SOI (ENSO) or high SOI (La Niña–SO) episodes, respectively. The LSOI (ENSO) phase influences the AAvMR in several ways: depending on the month, it increases or decreases the probability of the abundant rainfall category. LSOI (ENSO) also increases or decreases, depending on the month, the probability of the normal rainfall category. It also decreases the probability that AAvMR takes on values in the drought category. A similar kind of complex response of monthly rainfall amounts occurs when the active phase is the HSOI (La Niña–SO). The responses are: (1) the probability of the category `drought' increases only in three months of the year, (2) increase or decrease of the probability of the normal rainfall category, depending on the month, and (3) decrease of the probability of the abundant rainfall category. Finally, the effects of NSOI (neutral phase of the SO) are not negligible. Depending on the month, NSOI episodes increase or decrease the probability of drought, or abundant rainfall, or normal rainfall categories.  相似文献   

Rainfall as a trigger of shallow mass movements. A case study in the Dolomites, Italy   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

A. Pasuto  S. Silvano 《Environmental Geology》1998,35(2-3):184-189

 The article presents results of regional analysis on a historical basis correlating the occurrence of shallow mass movements and disruptive events in time with precipitation trends. For the latter, different time-spans have been considered in an attempt to find the most typical ones which might have triggered landslides. Research was carried out in the 850 km² wide basin of the River Cordevole in the Dolomites (NE Italy). Data concerning slope movements and floods, which have affected the area since the last century, were collected. Events which took place after 1920 have been correlated with the significant pluviometric events recorded. In spite of the regionally high variability of both geological conditions and spatial distribution of precipitation, three types of typical pluviometric trends related to an effective rainfall period of 15 days and to a peak rainfall of 24–48 h preceding the onset of the movements were identified. Received: 1 November 1996 · Accepted: 25 June 1997  相似文献   

Establishing the frequency and magnitude of landslide-triggering rainstorm events in New Zealand   总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13  

Thomas Glade 《Environmental Geology》1998,35(2-3):160-174

 Landslide erosion has an established history in New Zealand. Some broad estimates of economic costs for short-term event damage, long-term landslide damage, and proactive measures are provided and compared on a national and international level. Frequency and magnitude analysis based on historical records of landslide-triggering rainstorms demonstrates that 1) landslides are a nationwide problem, 2) recognition and recording of these events is dependent on public awareness and therefore related to population distribution and extent of urbanized areas, and 3) deforestation increases the frequency of landslide events, but not necessarily the total magnitude of their impact. However, some regions such as Northland and Wellington in the North Island and Greymouth and North Otago in the South Island are more frequently and more strongly affected than others. Landslide occurrence in time and space, within representative study areas in Hawke's Bay, Wairarapa, and Wellington, is correlated with the climatic variable daily precipitation. Different regional hydrological thresholds for landslide triggering are established. Received: 15 Ocotober 1997 · Accepted: 25 June 1997  相似文献