CST-based first order second moment method for probabilistic slope stability analysis     

《Computers and Geotechnics》2017

Correlated random variables are commonly involved in probabilistic slope stability analysis, such as reliability analysis of slopes with spatially variable soil properties. This paper proposes a simple Correlated Sampling Technique (CST) for generating samples of correlated random variables. The CST firstly produces correlated standard-normally distributed samples through linear combinations of independent standard-normally distributed samples. Correlated arbitrarily distributed samples can then be obtained by the Nataf transformation. The CST was combined with FOSM (named CST-based FOSM) for probabilistic slope stability analysis. The slope reliabilities of a single-layered cohesive soil slope and a high earth and rockfill dam were analyzed to illustrate the CST-based FOSM. These illustrative examples indicated that the CST-based FOSM can accurately estimate the slope reliability indices with considerably fewer simulations (especially in the case of low failure probability) compared with direct MCS, and the slope reliability was sensitive to the correlation of the strength parameters.  相似文献   

田块尺度作物辐射温度获取方法对比研究     

康国婷  阎广建  任华忠  王颢星  钱永刚 《地球科学进展》2009,24(7):784-792

热像仪的优势在于可以获得组分辐射温度,常用于地面温度同步测量实验中,其数据与植被覆盖度联合还可以得到作物田块尺度的平均辐射温度。以黑河流域进行的星—机—地遥感综合观测试验加密观测——盈科绿洲玉米地的热像仪和手持式红外辐射计温度测量数据为基础对不同采样方式获得的地面辐射温度进行对比。对于热像仪数据:①采用阈值法对热像仪影像中的玉米和土壤背景两组分进行分离,获得了各自辐射温度的平均值;②利用LAB彩色变换法处理同步拍摄的真彩色照片,获得每块玉米样地的植被覆盖度;③最终结合组分温度和植被覆盖度求得地块平均的辐射温度。经过实验对比发现,由热红外图像计算获得的地面平均辐射温度与手持式红外辐射计垂直垄或顺垄条带采样获得的地面平均辐射温度差值较小,基本在±1℃以内,而3种测量方式的最大值、最小值相差较多。还模拟了几种常见尺度下利用手持式红外辐射计进行随机采样时,其采样平均值以不同的置信度处于真实温度±0.5℃之间所对应的采样次数。分析表明,基于点测量的采样方案难以仅利用1~2台手持式红外辐射计实现对田块或更大尺度平均辐射温度的准确测量,高时空采样频率是保障地面辐射温度测量精度的前提,与遥感像元尺度相匹配的地面真实性检验需要...  相似文献   

亚洲象生境评价     

李芝喜  李红旮  陆锋 《遥感学报》1996,(2)

本文阐述了通过外业抽样调查进行亚洲象生境因子定量分析，利用遥感技术提取生境专题信息建立数据库，在此基础上，应用ＧＩＳ对西双版纳勐养自然保护区亚洲象生境因子进行评价。同时，提出改善栖息地环境质量的治理方案。  相似文献   

成矿预测中非参数蒙特卡洛模拟方法研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

赵玉琛 《矿产与地质》1991,5(3):191-199

非参数方法是在成矿预测中、当统计数据不服从或不完全服从现则分布时的一种蒙特卡洛模拟形式 非参数方法采用拉格朗日插值函数和三次条样函数,并均满足密度函数的条件.可以对统计数据进行拟合.借以建立各种抽样模型 即便是离散型数据.也可用牛顿插值法为其建立非参数抽样模型 因而.它具有算法统一.编程简单和有利于计算机自动化模拟等优点.具有广阔的应用前景  相似文献   

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model     

M. N. French  R. L. Bras  W. F. Krajewski 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1992,6(1):27-45

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.  相似文献   

Accuracy of two sampling methods used to estimate sediment concentrations in runoff from soil-loss plots     

R. D. Lang 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1992,17(8):841-844

The use of a bottle sampler and a soil pipette to quickly and accurately sample soil-water mixtures of known sediment concentrations was tested. Both devices failed to sample adequately soil-water mixtures containing 1–187 gl^?1 of solid particles. Poor sampling ability was attributed to rapid settlement of larger particles and to innate deficiencies in the sediment trapping ability of the samplers. These sampling devices should not be used to estimate sediment loads in runoff from soil-loss plots, and erosion data from plot studies which have used a sediment sampling procedure should be treated with caution.  相似文献   

估计迹长概率分布函数的新方法及其应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

金曲生  王思敬  陈昌彦 《工程地质学报》1997,(2)

本文提出一种估计迹长概率分布函数的新方法。该方法的优点是不需要有节理在测窗上出露长度的数据，有效的减少了野外工作量  相似文献   

Radon变换的抽样取值与小波   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

李世雄 《地球物理学报》1993,36(2):233-241

Radon变换在实际应用中必须考虑抽样取值的问题,通信理论中常用的Shannon取样定理在地球物理学等领域中并不适用,因为它要求函数是频谱有限的.本义介绍利用小波理论建立新的取样定理的方法,这一方法的优点在于可以根据具体问题的要求选取适当的基本空间V_0,从而获得较佳的抽样插值效果.  相似文献   

田间土壤含水率的空间结构及取样数目确定   总被引：18，自引：0，他引：18  

杨诗秀  雷志栋 《地理学报》1993,48(5):447-456

本文以田间试验资料为基础,研究田间土壤含水率的空间变异性与空间结构。对1m土层不同深度的含水率与1m土层平均含水率作了统计、自相关与半方差分析,表明田间土壤存在着空间变异性。1m土层平均含水率的变差系数Cv小于各不同深度含水率的Cv值。资料还表明含水率在平面位置上相关性不显著。将田间含水率作为空间变异的随机变量,可计算其符合要求的置信水平P1和估值精度的合理取样数目。本文提供的取样数目表亦可供确定合理取样数目时参考。  相似文献   

Sediment variability and bed material sampling in gravel-bed rivers     

M. P. Mosley  D. S. Tindale 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1985,10(5):465-482

In a 350 m wide reach of the braided, gravel-bed Ashley River, the surface layer of the bed material was sampled in 141 areas of homogeneous graded sediment along seven cross-sections, and 30 kg bulk samples were collected at 86 randomly selected locations along the cross-sections. At one location, a single 854 kg sample composed of 28 subsamples was also collected. Analysis of the single large sample indicate that accurate determination of mean grain size D at that site requires, desirably, a sample of ～ 100 kg, but that samples in which the weight of the largest stone is less than 5 per cent of the total weight have unbiased estimates of D. Spatial variability of bulk material is such that 228 and 50 samples are needed to estimate D to ± 10 and ± 20 per cent respectively of the true value; requirements for estimating inclusive graphic standard duration are only 11 and 3 respectively. The grain-size distribution of the surface layer is only weakly related to the bulk material beneath. The results of ‘Wolman sampling’ along 12 cross-sections at two pace intervals (average 120 stones per cross-section) indicate that estimation of overall surface D to ±10 and ±20 per cent would require sampling along 64 and 14 cross-sections respectively. It is concluded that accurate characterization of bed sediment in gravel-bed rivers is very demanding of labour and resources, and that careful planning is needed to ensure efficiency and meaningful results.  相似文献