Impact of atmospheric and oceanic conditions on the frequency and genesis location of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific in 2004 and 2010     

Pan SONG  Jiang ZHU  Zhong ZHONG  Linlin QI  Xiaodan WANG 《大气科学进展》2016,33(5):599-613

This study examines the impact of atmospheric and oceanic conditions during May–August of 2004 and 2010 on the frequency and genesis location of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific. Using the WRF model, four numerical experiments were carried out based on different atmospheric conditions and SST forcing. The numerical experiments indicated that changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions greatly affect tropical cyclone activity, and the roles of atmospheric conditions are slightly greater than oceanic conditions. Specifically, the total number of tropical cyclones was found to be mostly affected by atmospheric conditions, while the distribution of tropical cyclone genesis locations was mainly related to oceanic conditions, especially the distribution of SST. In 2010, a warmer SST occurred west of 140°E, with a colder SST east of 140°E. On the one hand, the easterly flow was enhanced through the effect of the increase in the zonal SST gradient.The strengthened easterly flow led to an anomalous boundary layer divergence over the region to the east of 140°E, which suppressed the formation of tropical cyclones over this region. On the other hand, the colder SST over the region to the east of 140°E led to a colder low-level air temperature, which resulted in decreased CAPE and static instability energy. The decrease in thermodynamic energy restricted the generation of tropical cyclones over the same region.  相似文献   

Asymmetric distribution of convection in tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific Ocean     

Lu Yang  Jianfang Fei  Xiaogang Huang  Xiaoping Cheng  Xiangrong Yang  Juli Ding  Wenli Shi 《大气科学进展》2016,33(11):1306-1321

Forecasts of the intensity and quantitative precipitation of tropical cyclones(TCs) are generally inaccurate, because the strength and structure of a TC show a complicated spatiotemporal pattern and are affected by various factors. Among these, asymmetric convection plays an important role. This study investigates the asymmetric distribution of convection in TCs over the western North Pacific during the period 2005–2012, based on data obtained from the Feng Yun 2(FY2)geostationary satellite. The asymmetric distributions of the incidence, intensity and morphology of convections are analyzed.Results show that the PDFs of the convection occurrence curve to the azimuth are sinusoidal. The rear-left quadrant relative to TC motion shows the highest occurrence rate of convection, while the front-right quadrant has the lowest. In terms of intensity, weak convections are favored in the front-left of a TC at large distances, whereas strong convections are more likely to appear to the rear-right of a TC within a 300 km range. More than 70% of all MCSs examined here are elongated systems, and meso-β enlongated convective systems(MβECSs) are the most dominant type observed in the outer region of a TC. Smaller MCSs tend to be more concentrated near the center of a TC. While semi-circular MCSs [MβCCSs, MCCs(mesoscale convective complexes)] show a high incidence rate to the rear of a TC, elongated MCSs [MβECSs, PECSs(persistent elongated convective systems)] are more likely to appear in the rear-right quadrant of a TC within a range of 400 km.  相似文献   

T639全球模式的台风初始化方案升级试验     

瞿安祥  麻素红  张进 《气象》2016,42(6):664-673

由于洋面上缺少有效的台风观测资料,台风初始化对全球数值预报业务模式而言,仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。国家气象中心自从2009年将T639全球数值预报系统投入业务运行以来,应用了一套完整可行的台风初始化方案,其技术路线是在台风刚发生时的预报时刻,在背景场嵌入人造bogus涡旋;而在后续的循环滚动预报时刻,采取涡旋重定位和涡旋调整技术方案;因此,第一个预报时刻的涡旋形成技术直接影响到后续时刻的台风涡旋质量乃至预报效果。但是,人造bogus涡旋主要依据统计的经验模型建立,其结构与全球数值模式的动力学、物理学属性并不匹配。基于国家气象中心T639全球资料分析同化-预报循环系统,一套升级版的台风初始化方案被发展了起来,与业务方案的主要区别在于升级方案利用资料同化技术来形成初始涡旋而不是直接嵌入人造bogus涡旋;这在很大程度上减少了人为主观因素对台风初始结构的影响,而更多地是依靠变分资料同化来协调约束产生三维空间的涡旋环流,这样产生的涡旋环流不但与周围环境场比较协调,而且与模式的动力学、物理学属性也比较匹配。应用新方案,本文对生成于西北太平洋2011-2012年27个台风进行了数值试验,初步分析表明,新方案在实现台风初始涡旋环流结构方面有着不错的表现,相比于业务使用的方案而言,新方案台风路径平均预报误差有了不错幅度的降低,2~5 d预报平均路径误差普遍降低了3%~15%。  相似文献   

ANALYSIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE PRECIPITATION FOR DIFFERENT INTENSITY CLASS IN NORTHWEST PACIFIC WITH TRMM DATA     

刘喆  白洁  黄兵  严军  周著华  张文军 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2016,22(2):118-126

Combined with TRMM products and Tropical Cyclone (TC) best track data in Northwest Pacific from 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2009, a total of 118 TCs, including 336 instantaneous TC precipitation observations are established as the TRMM TC database, and the database is stratified into four intensity classes according to the standard of TC intensity adopted by China Meteorological Administration (CMA): Severe Tropical Storm (STS), Typhoon (TY), Severe Typhoon (STY) and Super Typhoon (SuperTY). For each TC snapshot, the mean rainfall distribution is computed using 10-km annuli from the TC center to a 300-km radius, then the axisymmetric component of TC rainfall is represented by the radial distribution of the azimuthal mean rain rate; the mean rain rates, rain types occurrence and contribution proportion are computed for each TC intensity class; and the mean quadrantal distribution of rain rates along TCs motion is analyzed. The result shows that: (1) TCs mean rain rates increase with their intensity classes, and their radial distributions show single-peak characteristic gradually, and furthermore, the characteristics of rain rates occurrence and contribution proportion change from dual-peak to single-peak distribution, with the peak rain rate at about 5.0 mm/h; (2) Stratiform rain dominate the rain type in the analysis zone, while convective rain mainly occurred in the eye-wall region; (3) The values of mean rain rate in each quadrant along TCs motion are close to each other, relatively, the value in the right-rear quadrant is the smallest one.  相似文献   

前冬澳大利亚周边海温与我国长江流域夏季降水的联系     

董祝雷  任保华  郑建秋  卢国阳  徐迪 《大气科学》2016,40(6):1273-1283

利用1980～2012年Hadley中心的HadISST再分析海温资料、美国NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料和中国160站月平均降水资料,研究了前冬澳大利亚周边海温与长江流域夏季降水关系。研究表明,澳大利亚周边冬季逐月海表温度距平（SSTA）EOF分解第一模态具有全区一致模形式,澳大利亚周边海温一致模具有季节持续性,可从前一年冬季一直维持到当年的夏季。用Ni?o3.4指数剔除海温场中ENSO线性信号后,表明澳大利亚周边海温一致模可能是独立于ENSO位相的区域局地现象。基于冬季澳大利亚周边海温一致模形式,定义了表征长江流域夏季降水一致模指数（CMI）,对长江流域夏季降水具有一定的短期预测意义。澳大利亚周边海温一致模与长江流域夏季降水显著相关,一方面是因为澳大利亚周边海温异常能激发南北半球遥相关,造成西太平洋副热带高压异常,从而影响长江流域夏季降水;另一方面,澳大利亚周边海温异常导致热带地区南北半球对流异常,尤其使得菲律宾周边地区的对流活动异常,进而造成长江流域夏季降水异常。  相似文献   

Heterozoan carbonates from the equatorial rocky reefs of the Galápagos Archipelago          下载免费PDF全文

Claire E. Reymond  Konny‐Sebastian Zihrul  Jochen Halfar  Bernhard Riegl  Alexander Humphreys  Hildegard Westphal 《Sedimentology》2016,63(4):940-958

Strongly influenced by seasonal and interannual (i.e. El Niño‐Southern Oscillation) upwelling, the equatorial setting of the Galápagos Archipelago is divided into well‐defined temperature, nutrient and calcium carbonate saturation (Ω_aragonite) regions. To understand the relationship between oceanographic properties and sediment grain associations, grain size, carbonate content and components from sea floor surface samples were analysed, representing the main geographical regions of the Galápagos Archipelago. The shallow‐water rocky reefs of the Galápagos Archipelago are characterized by mixed carbonate–siliciclastic slightly gravelly sands. Despite minor differences in carbonate content, major differences exist in the distribution and composition of key carbonate producing biota. Halimeda is absent and benthic foraminifera occur in extremely low abundance. The western side of the Galápagos Archipelago is strongly influenced by nutrient‐rich, low‐Ω_aragonite, subtropical water, which generates a heterozoan carbonate biofacies in a tropical realm resembling cold‐water counterparts (i.e. serpulid, echinoderm, gastropod, barnacle and bryozoan‐rich facies). The Central East region is composed of a transitional‐heterozoan biofacies. Biofacies observed in the northern region have an increased occurrence of tropical corals, albeit with a minor overall contribution to the carbonate components. Although the temperature gradient would allow for a broader distribution of photozoan biofacies, the increased nutrient concentration and related reduced light penetration from the upwelled waters favour heterozoan carbonate factories, mimicking cool‐water, deeper or higher latitude environments. The recent sedimentary record of the Galápagos Archipelago presents a range of tropical heterozoan carbonate communities, responding to more than simply latitude or temperature but a much more complex mixture of physical, evolutionary and geological processes.  相似文献   

ENSO与影响福建省热带气旋数量和强度关系研究          下载免费PDF全文

焦梦梁 《应用海洋学学报》2016,35(1):33-37

利用1949~2013年的热带气旋最佳路径和Nino3.4指数资料,探讨了影响福建省的热带气旋数量和强度与ENSO之间的关系.结果表明,影响福建省的热带气旋数目在拉尼娜年要比厄尔尼诺年略偏多.但对于强台风和超强台风级别的热带气旋而言,反而是在厄尔尼诺年偏多,其频数是拉尼娜年的1.5倍.另外,热带气旋发生的高峰期,在拉尼娜年为7~9月,在厄尔尼诺年则为7~10月,即厄尔尼诺年中的高峰期相对较长;同时,在拉尼娜年中,强台风和超强台风的发生时间较厄尔尼诺年的6~9月要迟延1个月左右,为7~10月.  相似文献   

An Investigation into Effect of Randomly Distributed Small Scale          下载免费PDF全文

LUO Zhexian  LI Chunhu 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2008,22(2):143-151

Previous studies concerning the interaction of dual vortices have been made generally in the deterministic framework. In this paper, by using an advection equation model, eight numerical experiments whose integration times are 30 h are performed in order to analyze the interaction of dual vortices and the vortex self-organization in a coexisting system of deterministic and stochastic components. The stochastic components are introduced into the model by the way that the Iwayama scheme is used to produce the randomly distributed small-scale vortices which are then added into the initial field. The different intensity of the small-scale vortices is described by parameter K being 0.0, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, and 1.0, respectively. When there is no small-scale vortex （K=0.0）, two initially separated meso-beta vortices rotate counterclockwise mutually, and their quasi-final flow pattern is still two separated vortices; after initially incorporating small-scale vortices （K=0.8, 1.0）, the two separated meso-beta vortices of initially same intensity gradually evolve into a major and a secondary vortex in time integration. The major vortex pulls the secondary one, which gradually evolves into the spiral band of the major vortex. The quasi-final flow pattern is a self-organized vortex with typhoon-like circulation, and the relative vorticity at its center increases with increasing in K value, suggesting that small-scale vortices feed the self-organized vortex with vorticity. This may be a possible mechanism responsible for changes in the strength of the self-organized vortex. Results also show that the quasi-final pattern not only relates with the initial intensity of the small-scale vortices, but also with their initial distribution. In addition, three experiments are also performed in the case of various boundary conditions. Firstly, the periodic condition is used on the E-W boundary, but the fixed condition on the S-N boundary; secondly, the fixed condition is set on all the boundaries; and thirdly, the periodic conditio  相似文献   

A SIMULATION STUDY OF THE INFLUENCE OF LAND FRICTION ON LANDFALL TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK AND INTENSITY   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

袁金南  黄燕燕  刘春霞  万齐林 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2008,14(1):53-56

A quasi-geostrophic barotropic vorticity equation model is used to simulate the influences of topographic forcing and land friction on landfall tropical cyclone track and intensity. The simulation results show that tropical cyclone track may have sudden deflection when the action of topographic friction dissipation is considered, and sudden deflection of the track is easy to happen and sudden change of tropical cyclone intensity is not clear when the intensity of tropical cyclone is weak and the land friction is strong.The land friction may be an important factor that causes sudden deflection of tropical cyclone track around landfall.  相似文献   

影响长江口区热带气旋的特征分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

石少华  李爱平  沙伟 《海洋通报》2005,24(1):18-22

根据 1979—2002年大戢山和引水船的观测资料,结合西北太平洋热带气旋年鉴资料,统计和分析了热带气旋对长江口区的影响规律,统计结果显示,在近 24 a中,热带气旋年均有 2.0个,通常出现在6— 10月期间,以 月份最多,发生频数为 8 45.8 %;严重影响长江口区的热带气旋年均只有 0.3 个,有60 %集中在 月份,都属海上转向型;影响长江口的热带气旋源区 8 90 % 位于菲律宾和琉球群岛以东洋面,且有超过一半生成于10°N ~ 20°N;影响长江口区热带气旋次数存在 4 ~ 6 a 的小周期波动和 10 a 左右的周期变化,并且在厄尔尼诺年的影响次数较反厄尔尼诺年少。  相似文献