Knowledge Representation Methods in Expert System for Earthquake Prediction ESEP 3.0     

Wang Wei 《中国地震研究》2005,19(1):43-53

INTRODUCTIONKnowledgerepresentationandknowledgeacquisitionarekeyissuesinbuildinganexpertsystem .Theyarecloselyrelatedtothedomainproblem solvinglevelandcompetenceoftheexpertsystem .Intheknowledgeacquisitionprocess,thedomainexpertwillfirstofferandorganizepr…  相似文献   

The Quantitative Identification of Regional Mine and Natural Earthquakes and Its Application     

Liu Xiqiang 《中国地震研究》2005,19(3):269-281

INTRODUCTIONThe structural mine earthquake in coal mines refers to the quake induced by excavationengineeringthatleadstorupturingor change of geological structure and weakness surfaceintheinteriorof rock mass.According to the origin,mine earthquakes can b…  相似文献   

库水位变化对库岸边坡稳定性的影响   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

夏麾  刘金龙 《岩土工程技术》2005,19(6):292-295

在假定坡体孔隙水水位为水平线且不考虑渗透作用影响的基础上,基于极限平衡法考察了水位上升及下降的快慢对边坡安全系数的影响。对比计算表明:在水位缓慢变化即坡体内外水位线等高的条件下,边坡的安全系数随着水位坡高比的增大先略减小后急剧增大,且在水位坡高比为0.3处取得最小值,在边坡完全淹没于水中时取得最大值。当边坡完全淹没于水中后,水位高于坡顶的多少对边坡安全系数没有影响;在水位骤降或陡升条件下,相同库水位对应的边坡安全系数基本上均小于水位缓慢变化情况下的安全系数,故工程实际中无论是排水还是蓄水,都应尽量保持水位缓慢变化,这样才能使边坡处于较安全的状态。  相似文献   

Transport rate of calcareous sand in unidirectional flow     

DAVID A. SMITH  KWOK FAI CHEUNG 《Sedimentology》2005,52(5):1009-1020

This paper examines the transport of calcareous sand in unidirectional flow and its prediction through existing sediment transport models. A flume experiment of four sand samples collected on Oahu, Hawaii, provides 29 sets of sediment transport data in the bed-form and suspended transport stages. The measured transport data are compared with direct predictions from four energy-based transport models developed for siliceous particles. Corrections for the grain-size, fall velocity, and critical velocity of calcareous sand based on recent research are applied to the models and the results are compared with the direct calculations and measured data. The comparison illustrates the important role particle shape plays in the transport of calcareous sand. All four sediment transport models give consistent predictions and good agreement with the majority of the measured data. Two of the models respond positively to the corrections in both the bed-form and suspended transport stages indicating that such an approach may provide an interim solution for the transport of calcareous sand.  相似文献   

浅析福建地倾斜潮汐因子γ及其组合动态特征     

傅再扬  危福泉  吴绍祖  陈光 《福建地震》2005,(Z1)

本文计算了福建自1992年至2004年以来的地倾斜EW和NS两分量的固体潮潮汐因子,并进行动态组合,绘制组合动态三种特征量:ΔγEW ΔγNS(表征扩容)、ΔγEW-ΔγNS(表征剪切应变)、ΔγEW/ΔγNS(表征介质各向异性)的时序曲线图,并进行固体潮特征分析,寻找中、强地震发生前远场块体和近场块体地倾斜突变性形变异常与之对应关系。结果表明:在福建沿海,海潮是决定倾斜固体潮特征的主要因素;福建发生5级上的中强地震、台湾发生7级以上强烈地震时,福建地倾斜固体潮潮汐因子及其动态组合特征存在明显的渐进式突变性形变异常现象,异常量和异常持续时间与震级和震中距有较好的对应关系。  相似文献   

沉降预测的非等步长灰色时变参数模型     

柳治国 《探矿工程》2005,32(3):1-4

针对经典灰色系统模型的不足，根据灰色系统理论的信息处理原则，在模型中引入遗忘因子，建立了灰色系统沉降预测的非等步长灰色时变参数模型，并在求解过程中引入遗忘因子以修正预测结果。模型充分考虑了预测系统的时变性和灰色性，从而降低对预测系统状态的预测误差。实例预测表明，灰色时变参数模型可以将工后总沉降量的预测误差控制在23%以内。误差检验结果显示，预测结果的精度等级较引入遗忘因子修正前有显著的提高。  相似文献   

Fracture mechanics analysis of multiple cracks in anisotropic media     

Chia‐Huei Tu  C.‐S. Chen  T.‐T. Yu 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2011,35(11):1226-1242

This paper presents a single‐domain boundary element method (BEM) for linear elastic fracture mechanics analysis in the two‐dimensional anisotropic material. In this formulation, the displacement integral equation is collocated on the un‐cracked boundary only, and the traction integral equation is collocated on one side of the crack surface only. A special crack‐tip element was introduced to capture exactly the crack‐tip behavior. A computer program with the FORTRAN language has been developed to effectively calculate the stress intensity factors of an anisotropic material. This BEM program has been verified having a good accuracy with the previous researches. Furthermore, by analyzing the different anisotropic degree cracks in a finite plate, we found that the stress intensity factors of crack tips had apparent influence by the geometry forms of cracks and media with different anisotropic degrees. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Changes in potential evapotranspiration and surface runoff in 1981–2010 and the driving factors in Upper Heihe River Basin in Northwest China          下载免费PDF全文

Kaisheng Luo  Fulu Tao  Xiangzheng Deng  Juana P. Moiwo 《水文研究》2017,31(1):90-103

Changes in potential evapotranspiration and surface runoff can have profound implications for hydrological processes in arid and semiarid regions. In this study, we investigated the response of hydrological processes to climate change in Upper Heihe River Basin in Northwest China for the period from 1981 to 2010. We used agronomic, climatic and hydrological data to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model for changes in potential evapotranspiration (ET₀) and surface runoff and the driving factors in the study area. The results showed that increasing autumn temperature increased snow melt, resulting in increased surface runoff, especially in September and October. The spatial distribution of annual runoff was different from that of seasonal runoff, with the highest runoff in Yeniugou River, followed by Babaohe River and then the tributaries in the northern of the basin. There was no evaporation paradox at annual and seasonal time scales, and annual ET₀ was driven mainly by wind speed. ET₀ was driven by relative humidity in spring, sunshine hour duration in autumn and both sunshine hour duration and relative humility in summer. Surface runoff was controlled by temperature in spring and winter and by precipitation in summer (flood season). Although surface runoff increased in autumn with increasing temperature, it depended on rainfall in September and on temperature in October and November. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

重庆市滑坡灾害时空特征分析     

蒲娉璠  吴健平 《测绘与空间地理信息》2016,(10):130-133

重庆市是滑坡灾害高发的城市,滑坡灾害每年都会造成大量的人员伤亡和经济损失。本文结合历年滑坡统计资料,基于GIS平台,分析重庆市滑坡灾害的时空分布特征。自1980年起,重庆发生滑坡的次数明显增加,且集中发生在5~9月,尤其是7月。80%以上的滑坡为降雨引发,其次是自然灾害和人类活动,人类活动诱发滑坡灾害增长速度最快。重庆滑坡密度大的地区为市区以及万州区、忠县等三峡库区核心地带,滑坡高发地区有东北向西南方向变化的趋势。  相似文献   

南京雷达数据的一致性分析和订正          下载免费PDF全文

朱艺青  王振会  李南  徐芬  韩静  楚志刚  张晗昀  焦鹏程 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2016,74(2):298-308

运用几何匹配法处理了南京雷达和热带测雨卫星(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission,TRMM)上搭载的测雨雷达(Precipitation Radar,PR)的反射率因子探测资料,统计分析了2008—2013年共245个时次的匹配数据。 以TRMM PR工作多年持续稳定特征为参照,揭示了南京雷达6 a的探测资料情况。结果表明,南京雷达和TRMM PR探测降水具有较强的一致性,6 a时间里南京雷达存在一定的运行不稳定情况,南京雷达0℃层以下数据存在“3段特征”:时段Ⅰ2008年1月—2010年3月,时段Ⅱ2010年3月—2013年5月,时段Ⅲ2013年5—10月。3个时段之间整体回波强度有差异,时段Ⅱ整体回波强度比时段Ⅰ、Ⅲ偏小2—3 dB;而3个时段内的回波整体保持相对的稳定,南京雷达与TRMM PR的回波强度差值随回波强度的变化呈线性关系;在中低回波值时TRMM PR比南京雷达大,在中高回波值时南京雷达比TRMM PR大。基于两种雷达回波强度值的拟合关系,对南京雷达的反射率因子进行分段线性订正,有效地改善了南京雷达的一致性:3个时段回波强度的整体差异减小到0.75 dB以内;在245个匹配时次和105894个匹配点上南京雷达和TRMM PR的反射率因子的相关系数增大,南京雷达-TRMM PR值的标准差减小。  相似文献