基于循环神经网络的单站能见度短临预报试验          下载免费PDF全文

李昕蓓  张苏平  衣立  韩美  潘宁 《山东气象》2019,39(2):76-83

由于能见度具有局地性和复杂的非线性变化特征,一直是精细化预报的难点。人工神经网络对复杂变化过程的模拟能力较高,为解决这一难题提供了可能性。本文采用循环神经网络,利用福州气象观测站地面观测数据,建立了福州单站能见度短临预报模型,并就预报能力进行了评估。随机检验结果表明,在1 h、3 h、6 h时效上,循环神经网络的预报与观测的变化趋势一致性较好;均方根误差比基于实况的预报分别减小15.75%、31.66%、41.26%,说明具备较好的预报能力;平均绝对值误差比传统BP神经网络分别减小12.90%、24.45%、 38.99%,表明循环神经网络对能见度预报具有优势,为能见度的精细化短临预报提供了新途径。  相似文献   

Global ENSO-streamflow teleconnection,streamflow forecasting and interannual variability     

FRANCIS H. S. CHIEW  THOMAS A. McMAHON 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):505-522

Abstract

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been linked to climate anomalies throughout the world. This paper presents an overview of global ENSO-streamflow teleconnection and identifies regions where the relationship may be exploited to forecast streamflow several months ahead. The teleconnection is investigated by fitting a first harmonic to 24-month El Niño streamflow composites from 581 catchments worldwide and the potential for forecasting is investigated by calculating the lag correlation between streamflow and two indicators of ENSO. The analyses indicate clear ENSO-streamflow teleconnections in many catchments, some of which are consistent across large geographical regions. Strong and regionally consistent ENSO-streamflow teleconnections are identified in Australia and New Zealand, South and Central America, and weaker signals are identified in some parts of Africa and North America. The results suggest that the ENSO-streamflow relationship and the serial correlation in streamflow can be used to successfully forecast streamflow. The streamflow forecasts can be used to help manage water resources, particularly in systems with high interannual variability in Australia, southern and drier parts of Africa and some areas of North America.  相似文献   

Developing a large‐scale water‐balance approach to seasonal forecasting: application to the 2012 drought in Britain     

V. A. Bell  H. N. Davies  A. L. Kay  T. J. Marsh  A. Brookshaw  A. Jenkins 《水文研究》2013,27(20):3003-3012

Seasonal hydrological forecasts, or outlooks, can potentially provide water managers with estimates of river flows and water resources for a lead time of several months ahead. An experimental modelling tool for national hydrological outlooks has been developed which combines a hydrological model estimate of sub‐surface water storage across Britain with a range of seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide estimates of area‐wide hydrological conditions up to a few months ahead. The link is made between a deficit in sub‐surface water storage and a requirement for additional rainfall over subsequent months to enable sub‐surface water storage and river flow to return to mean monthly values. The new scheme is assessed over a recent period which includes the termination of the drought that affected much of Britain in the first few months of 2012. An illustration is provided of its use to obtain return‐period estimates of the ‘rainfall required’ to ease drought conditions; these are well in excess of 200 years for several regions of the country, for termination within a month of 1 April 2012, and still exceed 40 years for termination within three months. National maps of sub‐surface water storage anomaly show for the first time the current spatial variability of drought severity. They can also be used to provide an indication of how a drought situation might develop in the next few months given a range of possible future rainfall scenarios. © 2013 CEH/Crown and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

皖江中东部雾的客观预报自动化业务系统     

周述学  叶金印 《气象》1994,20(11):37-39

介绍了一种雾的客观预报方法，并研制了一个与ＳＴＹＳ接口的雾的客观预报自动化业务系统，对雾有一定的预报能力。  相似文献   

多源信息方法在殷庄矿开采水文地质预测分区中的应用     

赵林  吴大新  郑世书  徐志斌  孙亚军 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》1994,(2)

根据对殷庄矿地质、水文地质、开采条件与矿井涌水之间关系的研究，提出了煤矿开采水文地质条件预测分区的方法——多源信息方法。该方法借助于地理信息系统技术实现了矿井涌水因素间的有机处理。经过将模型与实际情况反复拟合，最终得出了分区预测模型。  相似文献   

The reserves of extracted resources: Historical data     

Julian L. Simon  Guenter Weinrauch  Stephen Moore 《Natural Resources Research》1994,3(4):325-340

The available data on known reserves of extracted resources have not previously been tabulated and graphed. In this article we compile the reserves data in one place for the first time. This serves to (1) show the trends in the reserves series, (2) make the series available to others, and (3) place the reserves data in the context of price data for which longer series have been available, and with which they can now be seen to be consistent in both showing increasing availability rather than increasing scarcity.  相似文献   

A comparison of state space and multiple regression for monthly forecasts: U.S. Fuel consumption     

Kyungcho Bae Recent PhD graduate in Mineral Economics  DeVerle Harris 《Natural Resources Research》1995,4(4):325-339

Monthly consumption forecasts for U.S. oil, natural gas, and coal are made using state space and multiple regression applied to the same data. These forecasts are compared with actual consumption for a test period. The forecasts made using state space are preferred to those made using multiple regression models for both expost and exante cases. The state space forecasts track data cycles better than do the regression forecasts. Average absolute forecast errors are less for the state space models than they are for the multiple regression models.  相似文献   

船舶气象导航随船验证     

杨良华 《气象》1993,19(9):52-55

通过横流太平洋往返两个航次随船调查，研究了采用气象导航对减少燃油消耗和保证船舶安全、班期等，不但有定的经济效益，而且是一种非常有效的航运管理方法。  相似文献   

用时间序列模拟和预报天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川年径流总量     

宋强  陈靖 《冰川冻土》1990,(2)

本文把1958—1984年天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川的融水径流总量的时间序列X(t),分解为趋势项L(t)、周期项P(t)、平稳项S(t)、随机项ε(t),使该时间序列表示为X(t)=L(t)+P(t)+S(t)+ε(t)。采用非线性回归提取L(t),用谱分析和Fourier级数提取P(t),余差用自回归方程建模,用上述项的叠加作出预报,按相关指数公式计算R=0.90,效果良好。  相似文献   

A univariate model for long-term streamflow forecasting   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

P. F. Krstanovic  V. P. Singh 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1991,5(3):173-188

This paper, the first in a series of two, employs the principle of maximum entropy (POME) via maximum entropy spectral analysis (MESA) to develop a univariate model for long-term streamflow forecasting. Three cases of streamflow forecasting are investigated: forward forecasting, backward forecasting (or reconstruction) and intermittent forecasting (or filling in missing records). Application of the model is discussed in the second paper.  相似文献