文峪金矿元素地球化学统计分析及深部预测研究     

谭铁龙  成吉虎 《华东地质学院学报》1995,18(4):353-360

文峪金矿是著名的小秦岭金矿成矿带中的重要矿床，位于河南省与陕西省交界处，本文通过系统的地球化学元素样品分析，采用数学地质统计分析方法，确定了成矿元素间的亲缘关系的组合规律，建立了该矿床成矿元素分带序列模型，指出文峪金矿深部具有良好的找矿远景。  相似文献   

陕西勉略宁地区致矿地质异常场结构及找矿预测   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

陈守余  胡光道  周宗桂 《地球科学》1999,24(5):472-475

陕西勉略宁“三角区”构造块体呈楔状夹持在秦岭微板块,扬子陆块和松潘甘孜褶皱带之间,目前已探讨明多种矿产,成矿作用 了自新太古代以来不同构造体抽下的多次构造,岩浆热事件和变质变形的复杂的地质作用,使致矿地质异常场结构复杂化。  相似文献   

Detecting patterns of climate change in long-term forecasts of marine environmental parameters     

Gianpaolo Coro  Pasquale Pagano  Anton Ellenbroek 《International Journal of Digital Earth》2020,13(5):567-585

ABSTRACT

Forecasting environmental parameters in the distant future requires complex modelling and large computational resources. Due to the sensitivity and complexity of forecast models, long-term parameter forecasts (e.g. up to 2100) are uncommon and only produced by a few organisations, in heterogeneous formats and based on different assumptions of greenhouse gases emissions. However, data mining techniques can be used to coerce the data to a uniform time and spatial representation, which facilitates their use in many applications. In this paper, streams of big data coming from AquaMaps and NASA collections of 126 long-term forecasts of nine types of environmental parameters are processed through a cloud computing platform in order to (i) standardise and harmonise the data representations, (ii) produce intermediate scenarios and new informative parameters, and (iii) align all sets on a common time and spatial resolution. Time series cross-correlation applied to these aligned datasets reveals patterns of climate change and similarities between parameter trends in 10 marine areas. Our results highlight that (i) the Mediterranean Sea may have a standalone ‘response’ to climate change with respect to other areas, (ii) the Poles are most representative of global forecasted change, and (iii) the trends are generally alarming for most oceans.  相似文献   

夏季亚洲对流层中上层温度年际变率的预测水平评估及其在我国东部降水预测中的应用     

张丽霞  周天军 《大气科学》2020,44(1):150-167

夏季亚洲对流层温度异常与中国东部夏季降水紧密相关并可能作为降水的有效预报因子。基于欧盟ENSEMBLES计划的季节预测试验耦合模式每年5月1日开始的回报试验，分析了其对1960～2005年夏季亚洲对流层中上层温度（以200～500 hPa厚度替代，简称对流层温度）年际变率的预测结果，发现模式集合平均对夏季亚洲对流层温度年际变率具有较高的预报技巧，可以合理回报其前两个EOF（Empirical Orthogonal Function）主导模态（EOF1、EOF2），只是未能回报出EOF2高纬度的温度异常，模式集合平均预测的第一模态主成分（PC1）和第二模态主成分（PC2）与再分析资料的时间相关系数分别达到0.63和0.77。再分析资料中前两个EOF模态分别由ENSO（El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation）发展年印度夏季降水异常所激发的丝绸之路遥相关波列和ENSO衰减年西北太平洋夏季降水异常对应的太平洋—日本遥相关波列导致。ENSEMBLES计划可以合理预测出相应的海温异常及遥相关波列，进而合理预测出前两个EOF模态。对流层温度PC1和PC2分别表征了欧亚大陆与周围海洋之间的纬向和经向热力对比异常，模式对由PC1的预报技巧远高于前人定义的纬向热力对比的东亚夏季风指数，对前人定义的经向热力对比指数的预测技巧与PC2相当。将PC1和前人定义的经向热力对比指数作为预报因子，建立了中国夏季降水的动力—统计降尺度预测模型，交叉检验的结果表明该预报模型显著提高了东北和长江流域上游夏季降水的预报技巧。本文提出的亚洲对流层温度年际变率的EOF1及PC1，既能较好表征纬向热力对比与中国东部夏季降水显著相关，又能被模式合理预测，可以作为我国中高纬度地区，特别是东北地区降水的重要预测因子之一。  相似文献   

基于雷达资料的定量降水预报外推算法试验     

苏华英  曾莉萍  罗乃兴  王国松 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2020,14(5):27-35

摘要：目前贵州在短时临近降水预报客观算法方面研究匮乏，而短时强降水常常给贵州造成严重的洪涝灾害和地质灾害。将短时临近降水预报应用于气象防灾减灾、电网输电线路安全预警、水利防洪自动化方面是未来重要的研究应用方向。本文基于灾害天气短时临近系统（Severe Weather Automatic Nowcast System，SWAN）的定量降水预报(QPF)产品进行0～2小时QPF外推试验研究。利用贵州省地面自动站数据、SWAN 输出的1h-QPF产品、SWAN 1h定量降水估测(QPE)产品。选取2018年3次典型暴雨个例进行试验，采用融合订正技术，利用相似离度算法对降水强度位相进行调整、Weibull分布算法对降水极值分布进行订正、改进后的交叉相关法(Improved Cross-correlation Extrapolation Method，COTREC)进行降水外推预报。通过主客观检验对比，初步说明基于Weibull分布算法的降水极值订正对降水极值分布有很好的模拟效果。融合订正外推的贵州省短时临近定量降水预报产品（Nowcasting precipitation forecast of GuiZhou，下文简写为GZ_NPF）在大于5mm以上量级降水的TS检验中评分更高。GZ_NPF的空报率明显降低，但空报率降低的代价是漏报率相对提高。GZ_NPF总的相对误差减小，格点总降水量与实况总降水量更为接近。试验说明新的融合订正外推算法提高了0～2h短时临近降水的预报能力。  相似文献   

The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature in South Korea using dynamic linear models     

Keon-Tae SOHN  Deuk-Kyun RHA  Young-Kyung SEO 《大气科学进展》2003,20(4):575-582

The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature from 00 h out to 45 h in South Korea(38 stations) is performed using the DLM (dynamic linear model) in order to eliminate the systematic error of numerical model forecasts. Numerical model forecasts and observations are used as input values of the DLM. According to the comparison of the DLM forecasts to the KFM (Kalman filter model) forecasts with RMSE and bias, the DLM is useful to improve the accuracy of prediction.  相似文献   

砂岩型铀矿成矿预测评价信息系统研究     

谢迎春  薛重生  李名松  江民忠 《地质科技情报》2003,22(3):73-76

基于Arcview3．2a平台的二次开发工具,采用Avenue和Microsoft VB6．0语言,设计开发了地漫砂岩型铀矿成矿预测评价信息系统。信息平台应用地理信息系统(GIS)强大的空间分析功能以及空间和属性数据的管理和查询功能,以某盆地的控矿地质、盆地构造、地质异常多深信息数据为例,建立了砂岩型铀矿成矿预测评价信息系统。系统对该盆地的地质、遥感、地球物理数据进行了基于空间分析和成矿预测的数据处理,圈定出14片远景区,其中4号远景区已钻探见矿。该系统的开发成功对铀矿的成矿预测评价进入数字化、信息化和可视化的空间信息处理具有重要的试验意义。  相似文献   

Meteorological monitoring of an active volcano: Implications for eruption prediction     

Jenni Barclay  Jade E. Johnstone  Adrian J. Matthews   《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2006,150(4):241-358

Rainfall data collected on and around the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat between 1998 and 2003 were analysed to assess the impact on primary volcanic activity, defined here as pyroclastic flows, dome collapses, and explosions. Fifteen such rainfall-triggered events were identified. If greater than 20 mm of rain fell on a particular day, the probability of a dome collapse occurring on that day increased by a factor of 6.3% to 9.2%, compared to a randomly chosen day. Similarly, the probability of observing pyroclastic flows and explosions on a day with > 20 mm of rainfall increased by factors of 2.6 and 5.4, respectively. These statistically significant links increased as the rainfall threshold was increased. Seventy percent of these rainfall-induced dome collapse episodes occurred on the same calendar day (most within a few hours) as the onset of intense rainfall, but an extra 3 occurred one or two calendar days later. The state of the volcano was important, with the rainfall–volcanic activity link being strongest during periods of unstable dome growth and weakest during periods of no dome growth or after a recent major collapse.Over 50% of the heavy rain days were associated with large-scale weather systems that can potentially be forecast up to a few days ahead. However, the remaining heavy rain days were associated with small-scale, essentially unpredictable weather systems. There was significant variability in the amount of rainfall recorded by different rain gauges, reflecting topographic variations around the volcano but also the inherent small-scale variability within an individual weather system. Hence, any monitoring/warning program is recommended to use a network, rather than just a single gauge. The seasonal cycle in rainfall was pronounced, with nearly all the heavy rain days occurring in the May–December wet season. Hence, the dome was at its most vulnerable at the beginning of the wet season after a period of uninterrupted growth. Interannual variability in rainfall was related to tropical Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies, and holds out the prospect of some limited skill in volcanic hazard forecasts at even longer lead times.  相似文献   

潞西盆地浅层地下水脆弱性预测分析     

魏海霞  薛传东  高照忠 《云南地质》2006,25(4):498-504

运用DRASTIC方法，评价潞西盆地浅层地下水脆弱性，结合区内人类工程活动因子。对潞西盆地远期地下水脆弱性进行预测分析，成果可为区内土地规划、备用水源地的选择、垃圾填埋场的选址及实现水资源可持续利用提供合理依据。  相似文献   

基于改进的Elman神经网络的中长期径流预报   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

屈亚玲  周建中  刘芳  杨俊杰  李英海 《水文》2006,26(1):45-50

径流中长期预报长期以来一直都是人们关注的热点研究问题。现行的径流预报方法很多,传统的有时间序列法,多元回归分析法等,这些方法虽然简单易用,但是如果预报对象提供的样本容量偏小或者因子选择不够合理,都会造成预报精度偏差过大,难于有效的指导工程应用。鉴于此,本文提出一种改进的采用局部回归的Elman神经网络方法。并应用到凤滩水库优化调度的径流预报中。结果表明,与回归分析法、BP网络相比较,该方法不仅提高了算法的效率,而且提高了预报的精度,在径流预报中具有有效性和优越性。  相似文献