The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature in South Korea using dynamic linear models     

Keon-Tae SOHN  Deuk-Kyun RHA  Young-Kyung SEO 《大气科学进展》2003,20(4):575-582

The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature from 00 h out to 45 h in South Korea(38 stations) is performed using the DLM (dynamic linear model) in order to eliminate the systematic error of numerical model forecasts. Numerical model forecasts and observations are used as input values of the DLM. According to the comparison of the DLM forecasts to the KFM (Kalman filter model) forecasts with RMSE and bias, the DLM is useful to improve the accuracy of prediction.  相似文献