成都城市发展对热岛强度影响的主成份回归分析     

石凤云  唐佑民 《成都信息工程学院学报》1991,(Z1)

本文对成都市总人口、建成区面积等11个因子、作了主成份回归L-S估计和M-估计,讨论了成都城市发展对“热岛”强度的主要影响因子。结果表明,城区房屋建筑面积及总人口数是影响城市气候(气温)的主要因子,其次为城市人口总户数、建成面积等。 文中,对回归方程进行了拟合计算,回归效果比较满意(尤其是稳健回归)。  相似文献   

Comparison of structural and least-squares lines for estimating geologic relations   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Garnett P. Williams  Brent M. Troutman 《Mathematical Geology》1990,22(8):1027-1049

Two different goals in fitting straight lines to data are to estimate a true linear relation (physical law) and to predict values of the dependent variable with the smallest possible error. Regarding the first goal, a Monte Carlo study indicated that the structural-analysis (SA) method of fitting straight lines to data is superior to the ordinary least-squares (OLS) method for estimating true straight-line relations. Number of data points, slope and intercept of the true relation, and variances of the errors associated with the independent (X) and dependent (Y) variables influence the degree of agreement. For example, differences between the two line-fitting methods decrease as error in X becomes small relative to error in Y. Regarding the second goal—predicting the dependent variable—OLS is better than SA. Again, the difference diminishes as X takes on less error relative to Y. With respect to estimation of slope and intercept and prediction of Y, agreement between Monte Carlo results and large-sample theory was very good for sample sizes of 100, and fair to good for sample sizes of 20. The procedures and error measures are illustrated with two geologic examples.  相似文献   

青藏高原腹地湖泊沉积对第四纪晚期古季风变化的响应   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

胡东生  张华京  徐冰  李炳元  孔照辰  温景春 《干旱区地理》2006,29(4):483-489

通过对青藏高原腹地的综合科学考察和对中心钻孔岩芯剖面的最新研究,用层序地层学与年代地层学和气候地层学相结合的方法,分辨出可可西里地区湖泊沉积记录(孔深7.25 m)的第四纪晚期距今3万余年以来的古气候变化,沉积物磁化率等因子综合表征的高原古季风变化是波动发展的,发生在仙女木期地质环境事件中的季风活动具有强烈暴发的特点,是高原季风发展中的突变事件,而且地表热点效应对其起到了激发作用。综合分析的研究成果表明,它的变化频谱与激变因子及其运行机制是伴随着青藏高原地质效应的演变而发展的,为研究第四纪冰消期以来的气候变化提供了新的信息。  相似文献   

Reservoir description using dynamic parameterisation selection with a combined stochastic and gradient search     

Lars Kristian Nielsen  Sam Subbey  Mike Christie  Trond Mannseth 《Computational Geosciences》2006,10(3):321-342

There is a correspondence between flow in a reservoir and large scale permeability trends. This correspondence can be derived by constraining reservoir models using observed production data. One of the challenges in deriving the permeability distribution of a field using production data involves determination of the scale of resolution of the permeability. The Adaptive Multiscale Estimation (AME) seeks to overcome the problems related to choosing the resolution of the permeability field by a dynamic parameterisation selection. The standard AME uses a gradient algorithm in solving several optimisation problems with increasing permeability resolution. This paper presents a hybrid algorithm which combines a gradient search and a stochastic algorithm to improve the robustness of the dynamic parameterisation selection. At low dimension, we use the stochastic algorithm to generate several optimised models. We use information from all these produced models to find new optimal refinements, and start out new optimisations with several unequally suggested parameterisations. At higher dimensions we change to a gradient-type optimiser, where the initial solution is chosen from the ensemble of models suggested by the stochastic algorithm. The selection is based on a predefined criterion. We demonstrate the robustness of the hybrid algorithm on sample synthetic cases, which most of them were considered insolvable using the standard AME algorithm.  相似文献   

Comparative Seismic Risk Studies for German Earthquake Regions on the Basis of the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98     

Jochen Schwarz  Mathias Raschke  Holger Maiwald 《Natural Hazards》2006,38(1-2):259-282

Within the framework of recent research projects, basic tools for GIS-based seismic risk assessment technologies were developed and applied to the building stock and regional particularities of German earthquake regions. Two study areas are investigated, being comparable by the level of seismic hazard and the hazard-consistent scenario events (related to mean return periods of 475, 2475 and 10000 years). Significant differences exist with respect to the number of inhabitants, the grade and extent of urbanisation, the quality and quantity of building inventory: the case study of Schmölln in Eastern Thuringia seems to be representative for the majority of smaller towns in Germany, the case study of Cologne (Köln) stands for larger cities. Due to the similarities of hazard and scenario intensities, the considerable differences do not only require proper decisions concerning the appropriate methods and acceptable efforts, they enable conclusions about future research strategies and needs for disaster reduction management. Not least important, results can sharpen the focus of public interest. Seismic risk maps are prepared for different scenario intensities recognising the scatter and uncertainties of site-dependent ground motion and also of the applied vulnerability functions. The paper illustrates the impact of model assumptions and the step-wise refinements of input variables like site conditions, building stock or vulnerability functions on the distribution of expected building damage within the study areas. Furthermore, and in contrast to common research strategies, results support the conclusion that in the case of stronger earthquakes the damage will be of higher concentration within smaller cities like Schmölln due to the site-amplification potential and/or the increased vulnerability of the building stock. The extent of damage will be pronounced by the large number of masonry buildings for which lower vulnerability classes have to be assigned. Due to the effect of deep sedimentary layers and the composition of building types, the urban centre of Cologne will be less affected by an earthquake of comparable intensity.  相似文献   

A Review of Studies Dealing with Tree Rings and Rockfall Activity: The Role of Dendrogeomorphology in Natural Hazard Research   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

M. Stoffel 《Natural Hazards》2006,39(1):51-70

Over the last few years, rockfall research has increasingly focused on hazard assessment and risk analysis. Input data on past rockfall activity were gathered from historical archives and lichenometric studies or were obtained through frequency–volume statistics. However, historical records are generally scarce, and lichenometry may only yield data with relatively low resolutions. On forested slopes, in contrast, tree-ring analyses may help, generally providing annual data on past rockfall activity over long periods. It is the purpose of the present literature review to survey the current state of investigations dealing with tree-ring sequences and rockfall activity, with emphasis on the extent to which dendrogeomorphology may contribute to rockfall research. Firstly, a brief introduction describes how dendrogeomorphological methods can contribute to natural hazard research. Secondly, an account is provided of the output of dendrogeomorphological studies investigating frequencies, volumes or spatial distributions of past rockfall activity. The current and potential strengths of dendrogeomorphology are then presented before, finally, the weaknesses of tree rings as natural archives of past rockfall activity are discussed and promising directions for further studies outlined.  相似文献   

Assessing the Vibrational Frequencies of the Cathedral of Cologne (Germany) by Means of Ambient Seismic Noise Analysis   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Andreas Fäcke  Stefano Parolai  Sandra M. Richwalski  Lothar Stempniewski 《Natural Hazards》2006,38(1-2):229-236

Ambient seismic noise measurements were conducted inside the Cathedral of Cologne (Germany) for assessing its frequencies of vibration and for checking whether these occur in the range where soil amplification is expected. If this is the case, damages may increase in case of an earthquake due to an increased structural response of the building. Analysis of the ratio between the horizontal and vertical components of the spectra recorded at stations located inside the building as well as the ratio between the corresponding components of the spectra recorded simultaneously inside the building and at a reference station placed in the basement of the cathedral indicated several modes of vibration. Facilitated by these results an assessment of the seismic vulnerability was attempted for a 2D ground motion scenario using the finite element method.  相似文献   

T -distributed Random Fields: A Parametric Model for Heavy-tailedWell-log Data1     

Jo R?islien  Henning Omre 《Mathematical Geology》2006,38(7):821-849

Histograms of observations from spatial phenomena are often found to be more heavy-tailed than Gaussian distributions, which makes the Gaussian random field model unsuited. A T-distributed random field model with heavy-tailed marginal probability density functions is defined. The model is a generalization of the familiar Student-T distribution, and it may be given a Bayesian interpretation. The increased variability appears cross-realizations, contrary to in-realizations, since all realizations are Gaussian-like with varying variance between realizations. The T-distributed random field model is analytically tractable and the conditional model is developed, which provides algorithms for conditional simulation and prediction, so-called T-kriging. The model compares favourably with most previously defined random field models. The Gaussian random field model appears as a special, limiting case of the T-distributed random field model. The model is particularly useful whenever multiple, sparsely sampled realizations of the random field are available, and is clearly favourable to the Gaussian model in this case. The properties of the T-distributed random field model is demonstrated on well log observations from the Gullfaks field in the North Sea. The predictions correspond to traditional kriging predictions, while the associated prediction variances are more representative, as they are layer specific and include uncertainty caused by using variance estimates.  相似文献   

Control of dust emissions by geomorphic conditions, wind environments and land use in northern China: An examination based on dust storm frequency from 1960 to 2003   总被引：9，自引：1，他引：9  

Xunming Wang  Zijiang Zhou  Zhibao Dong 《Geomorphology》2006,81(3-4):292-308

The degree to which dust emissions are controlled by geomorphic conditions, wind environments and land use was investigated using the dust storm frequency (DSF) and data from more than 300 meteorological stations throughout northern China. Our analysis showed that most dust emissions originated in gobi deserts that developed in piedmont alluvial fans of the Kunlun, Qilian and Helan mountains. Dust emissions are low from other gobi desert regions, such as the northern Gurbantunggut and eastern Taklimakan, where high vegetation coverage restrained dust emissions or where dust-size particles are not abundant after a long period of strong wind erosion. Sandy deserts with relatively high vegetation coverage or an extensive cover by mobile sands are not a major dust source. Although the highest dust emissions did not appear in regions with the highest wind energy, DSF trends in each region from 1960 to 2003 were closely related to local wind activity. DSF was low in regions with high levels of human activity, where the mean DSF from 1960 to 2003 did not exceed 4 days/year; even from the 1960s to the early 1970s, the period with the greatest DSF, frequency did not exceed 8 days/year, which indicates that extensive land use did not contribute to DSF. The low DSF in these areas might result from the fact that although land use could produce abundant fine soil fractions, vegetation coverage and soil moisture remained higher than in the gobi deserts of arid China, thereby decreasing dust-storm occurrence.  相似文献   

Flood seasonality and generating conditions in the Tay catchment, Scotland from 1200 to present   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Lindsey J McEwen 《Area》2006,38(1):47-64

The new maximum recorded river flows in Scotland since 1988 have triggered widespread interest in whether floods are becoming more frequent and in the conditions that generate floods of different magnitudes and frequencies. There are questions about the longer-term variability in flood-generating characteristics, and whether there are past analogues for present hydroclimatic variability. The present paper builds on previous work reconstructing a detailed historic flood chronology for the Tay, the largest catchment in Scotland, and its tributaries over the past 800 years, extending the gauged discharge record (1952 onwards). It categorizes flood-generating factors in the Tay catchment and analyses the hydro-meteorological conditions that have generated extreme and moderate floods over a historical period. This work is placed in a broader literature context of historical 'climaxes of storminess', periods of higher storm frequency, flood patterns observed in Scotland and Europe during the Little Ice Age and longer-term rainfall and temperature patterns. The paper concludes that the variability in flood-generating characteristics is highly dependent on the timescale of observation. Inevitably the relative dominance of winter and early spring flooding can vary from year to year and within specific time-periods, but so can the level of augmentation of the flood series with summer and autumn floods to produce notable 'flood years' and flood clusters. The Tay provides a good 'all-Scotland surrogate' for historical flood patterns, reflecting its gathering areas in eastern and western Scotland. The value of a historical approach to the assessment of flood seasonality and generating characteristics is clearly demonstrated.  相似文献