“一带一路”沿线国家矿业投资风险评价——基于改进的灰色关联分析模型          下载免费PDF全文

徐国良  高继雷  代名梅  刘洪  张振飞 《山东国土资源》2023,39(5):72-78

随着共建“一带一路”倡议的推进,中国对沿线国家矿业投资稳步增长。由于部分国家特殊的政治、经济、文化背景,使得投资活动常面临众多风险,因此,有必要对矿业投资风险进行科学评价,以提高风险抵御能力。以国际投资风险一体化分析框架为基础,提出从社会一般环境与行业一般环境2个维度展开的矿业投资风险评价“四层次”指标体系,然后运用灰色系统理论的重要工具灰色关联分析对指标体系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,政局稳定程度是影响矿业投资风险的首要因素,其次为外交关系情况、基础设施建设、矿产资源禀赋、对外单项投资和国民教育水平;以国别进行风险评价的研究结果表明,越南、印度尼西亚等为低风险国家,哈萨克斯坦、波兰等为中风险国家,巴基斯坦、伊朗等为高风险国家。  相似文献   

RESPONSE ANALYSIS FOR FUZZY STOCHASTIC DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS WITH MULTIPLE DEGREES OF FREEDOM     

ZHANG YUE  WANG GUANGYUAN  SU FEN  SONG YUHAI 《地震工程与结构动力学》1997,26(2):151-166

Most real-life structural/mechanical systems have complex geometrical and material properties and operate under complex fuzzy environmental conditions. These systems are certainly subjected to fuzzy random excitations induced by the environment. For an analytical treatment of such a system subjected to fuzzy random excitations, it becomes necessary to establish the general theory of dynamic response of a system to fuzzy random excitations. In this paper, we extend the work published in Reference [1], and discuss the case of Multi-Degree-of-Freedom (MDF) fuzzy stochastic dynamical systems. The theory of the response, fuzzy mean response and fuzzy covariance response of multi-degree-of-freedom system to fuzzy random excitations in the time domain and frequency domain is put forward. Two cases to determine the fuzzy response statistics of the fuzzy stochastic dynamical system with multiple degrees of freedom are discussed. Two examples are considered in order to demonstrate the rationality and validity of the theory. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Soil erosion rates assessed by RUSLE and PESERA for a Chinese Loess Plateau catchment under land-cover changes     

Pengfei Li  Yuzhe Zang  Doudou Ma  Wanqiang Yao  Joseph Holden  Brian Irvine  Guangju Zhao 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(3):707-722

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Hazard Assessment of Co-seismic Landslides Based on Information Value Method: A Case in 2018 MW6.6 Hokkaido Earthquake, Japan     

WEN Boyu  XU Chong  HE Xiangli  MA Siyuan  SHAO Xiaoyi  LI Kai  ZHANG Zhongjian  LI Zhengfang 《中国地震研究》2020,34(1):64-80

An M_W6.6 earthquake occurred in eastern Hokkaido, Japan on September 6^th, 2018. Based on the pre-earthquake image from Google Earth and the post-earthquake image from high resolution (3 m) planet satellite, we manually interpret 9 293 coseismic landslides and select 7 influencing factors of seismic landslide, such as elevation, slope, slope direction, road distance, flow distance, peak ground acceleration (PGA) and lithology. Then, 9 293 landslide points are randomly divided into training samples and validation samples with a proportion of 7:3. In detail, the training sample has 6 505 landslide points and the validation sample has 2 788 landslide points. The hazard risk assessment of seismic landslide is conducted by using the information value method and the study area is further divided into five risk grades, including very low risk area, low risk area, moderate risk area high risk area and very high risk area. The results show that there are 7 576 landslides in high risk area and very high risk area, accounting for 81.52% of the total landslide number, and the landslide area is 22.93 km², accounting for 74.35% of the total area. The hazard zoning is in high accordance with the actual situation. The evaluation results are tested by using the curve of cumulative percentage of hazardous area and cumulative percentage of landslides number. The results show that the success rate of the information value method is 78.50% and the prediction rate is 78.43%. The evaluation results are satisfactory, indicating that the hazard risk assessment results based on information value method may provide scientific reference for landslide hazard risk assessment as well as the disaster prevention and mitigation in the study area.  相似文献   

2020年1月19日伽师MS6.4地震灾害损失评估及震害特点分析     

阿里木江·亚力昆  谭明  姚远  张文秀 《内陆地震》2020,34(1):30-39

2020年1月19日新疆伽师发生M S6.4地震,造成1人死亡、2人受伤,各类建(构)筑物、公共服务设施、生命线工程等都遭受不同程度的破坏。按照国家相关标准的原则和方法,通过对本次地震现场震害调查,评估出本次地震造成的总直接经济损失为15.26亿元,灾后恢复重建经费约需20.78亿元,并且分析了本次地震震害特点。这为今后的抗震救灾和灾后重建提供了科学依据。  相似文献   

贵州草海湿地不同水位梯度沉积物中汞、砷形态分布及风险评价     

汤向宸  林陶  夏品华  黄先飞  马莉  杨羽 《湖泊科学》2020,32(1):100-110

通过改进Tessier连续提取法对贵州草海黑颈鹤栖息地不同水位梯度下沉积物汞(Hg)、砷(As)形态及生态风险进行了研究.结果表明,草海湿地沉积物中Hg含量在0.45～1.51-mg/kg之间,超过国家土壤环境质量农用地土壤风险管控标准;形态组成上,残渣态汞(Res-Hg)有机结合态汞(Org-Hg)碳酸盐结合态(Car-Hg)铁锰氧化态(Fe-O-Hg)可交换态(Ex-Hg),不同水位梯度下含量和赋存形态在不同区域不一致.As含量在16.4～23.8-mg/kg之间,形态依次为残渣态砷(Res-As)有机结合态砷(Org-As)铁锰氧化态砷(Fe-O-As)碳酸盐结合态砷(Car-As)可交换态砷(Ex-As).-As含量与贵州省土壤背景值持平,随着水位梯度的抬升,其总量呈增加趋势,残渣态占比逐步增多,性质逐渐稳定.采用地积累指数(I_(geo))、潜在生态风险指数(E_r~i)、风险评价编码法(RAC)对Hg、As的危害程度进行分析表明,基于草海较高Hg环境背景值,Hg整体污染风险较高,As处于低水平的污染风险等级且对环境影响较小.该研究揭示了不同水位梯度下Hg、As总量及形态分布特征,对草海湿地水位抬升恢复湿地提供了参考.  相似文献   

基于模糊理论的高铁连续梁桥地震风险评估          下载免费PDF全文

冯莉  樊燕燕  王力  李子奇 《地震工程学报》2020,42(3):639-645

以某高速铁路线上一座连续梁桥为例,运用模糊综合评判法,结合基于位移的支座损伤分析和截面曲率的桥墩损伤分析,以全概率理论地震损失模型为基础,提出了基于模糊理论的桥梁系统地震经济风险评估方法。结果表明:综合考虑桥梁系统的模糊地震经济风险分析方法能更全面地计算出连续梁桥在地震作用下的经济损失,仅以桥墩构件代表全桥所得地震经济损失误差较大。基于模糊理论的年预期损失风险框架方法通过结构抗震性能的概率特征可对高速铁路连续梁桥的地震直接经济风险进行全面评估,为该类桥梁的抗震设计、维修加固和灾后重建等方案做出合理评价。  相似文献   

星基增强系统L1频段信息服务性能分析     

赵镇  陈刚  胡志刚 《中国地震》2020,36(4):912-923

在北斗全球导航服务进程中,北斗星基增强服务的建设是我国卫星导航事业自身建设和不断完善发展的内在需求,更是我国卫星导航系统标准化建设的必然要求。本文基于星基增强信息定位原理,研究并实现星基增强系统的标准定位算法,采用IGS站点数据及增强信息电文,对WAAS与EGNOS系统服务性能进行分析评估,在“陆态网络”数据处理中,加入SBAS信息也可对相关误差进行改正。结果表明,加入播发的差分改正信息定位精度相对于伪距单点定位显著提高,平面方向统计均方根残差优于1m,高程方向优于1.2m;研究发现受地面参考站分布区域以及电离层、观测星座的影响,WAAS和EGNOS在定位服务性能覆盖范围内均表现出一定的区域性。从总体分析来看,不同系统空间段GEO卫星播发SBAS消息特性不一,均满足单频定位需求,EGNOS稳定性低于WAAS系统,播发消息时有中断现象,在实时单频定位性能方面,WAAS的服务性能较EGNOS得到更优的解算结果。  相似文献   

Numerical homogenization-based seismic assessment of an English-bond masonry prototype: Structural level application     

Luís C. Silva  Paulo B. Lourenço  Gabriele Milani 《地震工程与结构动力学》2020,49(9):841-862

A multiscale strategy is evaluated at a structural level for the analysis of unreinforced masonry structures. The mechanical characterization of the masonry is deduced from homogenization-based micro-scale finite element (FE) models. The derived data are here employed at a structural level via a discrete FE model. The discrete FE model is composed of quadrilateral rigid plates interconnected through vertical and horizontal interfaces. On the interfaces, between adjoining discrete elements, a model that accounts for the in- and out-of-plane behavior of masonry, with damage and plasticity, is adopted. Such interfaces represent the material pre- and post-peak regimes, its orthotropy, and, depending on the micro-model assumed, account by three-dimensional shear effects that are especially important for multi-leaf walls and complex regular textures. The discrete model has been implemented in an advanced structural analysis software where powerful built-in features as the arc-length method, line-search algorithm, and implicit or explicit solver schemes are available. The multi-scale model is applied for the dynamic study of a small English-bond masonry house prototype subjected to a series of consecutive earthquake records. Detailed comparisons between the experimental and numerical data are presented, including the results obtained through a continuous total strain rotating crack model. Quasi-static and dynamic analyses are conducted. Results demonstrate that when enough experimental information is available on the masonry components under tension, shear, and compression regimes, the approach predicts well the seismic structural response in terms of time-history displacements, seismic capacity, and damage patterns. The required computational cost (CPU time) is very attractive.  相似文献   

Pushover-based seismic risk assessment and loss estimation of masonry buildings     

Jure Snoj  Matjaž Dolšek 《地震工程与结构动力学》2020,49(6):567-588

A pushover-based seismic risk assessment and loss estimation methodology for masonry buildings is introduced. It enables estimation of loss by various performance measures such as the probability of exceeding a designated economic loss, the expected annual loss, and the expected loss given a seismic intensity. The methodology enables the estimation of the economic loss directly from the results of structural analysis, which combines pushover analysis and incremental dynamic analysis of an equivalent SDOF model. The use of the methodology is demonstrated by means of two variants of a three-storey masonry building both of which have the same geometry, but they are built, respectively, from hollow clay masonry (model H) and solid brick masonry (model S). The probability of collapse given the selected design earthquake corresponding to a return period of 475 years was found to be negligible for model H, which indicates the proper behaviour of such a structure when designed according to the current building codes. However, the corresponding probability of collapse of model S was very high (46%). The expected total loss given the design earthquake was estimated to amount to 28 000 € and 290 000 €, respectively, for models H and S. The expected annual loss per 100 m² of gross floor area was estimated to amount to 75 € and 191 €, respectively, for models H and S. For the presented examples, it was also observed that nonstructural elements contributed more than 50% of the total loss.  相似文献