预测陕西关中地区需水量的改进GM(1,1)模型   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

王菊翠  曹明明  仵彦卿 《干旱区地理》2006,29(1):35-41

需水量评价与预测是水资源规划与管理一项重要的研究内容。本文采用定额法计算需水量。通过对陕西关中地区需水量要素组成的分析,认为需水量要素属平稳时间序列,且一阶累加生成数据系列满足指数规律,符合灰色预测条件。为了提高GM(1,1)模型的精度,采用一种改变背景值的新方法,即:中心逼近方法。通过精度检验,中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型平均误差百分比、误差平方和分别比传统的GM(1,1)模型提高了0.147和1.579。用中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型预测需水量各要素近期和中长期值,经检验,其中非农业人口、农业人口、耕地面积、工业总产值预测模型满足一级模型,等级为良好。牲畜头数预测模型为不合格模型,分析其原因,主要是因为时间序列数据不完全符合指数规律。通过定额法计算,预计75%保证率时2005年和2010年关中地区工农业需水量分别占总需水量的92.21%和89.75%,生活需水量分别占7%和9.04%。  相似文献   

Stratigraphic evolution of a fluvial–eolian succession: The example of the Upper Jurassic—Lower Cretaceous Guará and Botucatu formations, Paraná Basin, Southernmost Brazil     

Claiton M.S. Scherer  Ernesto L.C. Lavina 《Gondwana Research》2006,9(4):475-484

The Guará and Botucatu formations comprise an 80 to 120 m thick continental succession that crops out on the western portion of the Rio Grande do Sul State (Southernmost Brazil). The Guará Formation (Upper Jurassic) displays a well-defined facies shift along its outcrop belt. On its northern portion it is characterised by coarse-grained to conglomeratic sandstones with trough and planar cross-bedding, as well as low-angle lamination, which are interpreted to represent braided river deposits. Southwards these fluvial facies thin out and interfinger with fine- to medium-grained sandstones with large-scale cross-stratification and horizontal lamination, interpreted as eolian dune and eolian sand sheets deposits, respectively. The Botucatu Formation is characterised by large-scale cross-strata formed by successive climbing of eolian dunes, without interdune and/or fluvial accumulation (dry eolian system). The contact between the Guará and the Botucatu formations is delineated by a basin-wide deflation surface (supersurface). The abrupt change in the depositional conditions that took place across this supersurface suggests a major climate change, from semi-arid (Upper Jurassic) to hyper-arid (Lower Cretaceous) conditions. A rearrangement of the Paraná Basin depocenters is contemporaneous to this climate change, which seems to have changed from a more restrict accumulation area in the Guará Formation to a wider sedimentary context in the Botucatu Formation.  相似文献   

Ultra-rapid landscape response and sediment yield following glacier retreat, Icy Bay, southern Alaska     

Andrew Meigs  William C. Krugh  Kelsay Davis  Greg Bank 《Geomorphology》2006,78(3-4):207-221

The páramo is a neotropical alpine ecosystem that covers more than 75,000 km² of the northern Andes of Colombia, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Peru. It provides important environmental services: more than 10 million people in the Andean highlands benefit from the water supply and regulation function, which is attributed to the volcanic soils that underlie the ecosystem. The soils are also major carbon sinks of global significance. Severe land use changes and soil degradation threaten both the hydrology and carbon sink function. Nevertheless, soil genesis and properties in the páramo is rather poorly understood, nor are their ecological functions well documented. The impact of the geomorphology of the páramo on soil genesis was studied in the rio Paute basin, south Ecuador. Two toposequences were described and analysed. In each toposequence, four pedons were selected representing summit, backslope, undrained plain situation, and valley bottom positions in the landscape. The soils are classified as Hydric Andosols in the World Reference Base for Soil Resources and Epiaquands or Hydrudands in Soil Taxonomy. They are very acidic and have a high organic matter content, high P deficiency, and Al toxicity. Their water content ranges from 2.64 g g^− 1 at saturation, down to 1.24 g g^− 1 at wilting point, resulting in a large water storage capacity. Two major soil forming processes are identified: (1) volcanic ash deposition and (2) accumulation of organic carbon. Volcanic ash deposits may vary in depth as a result of regional geomorphological factors such as parent material, orientation, slope, and altitude. Organic carbon accumulation is an interaction of both waterlogging, which depends on the position in the landscape, and the formation of organometallic complexes with Al and Fe released during volcanic ash breakdown. Despite the high variability in parent material and topography, the soil is characterised by a notable homogeneity in physico-chemical properties. Statistical analysis reveals that only topographic location has a slight but significant influence on soil pH as well as the organic matter content, saturated conductivity and water retention at high pressure. Finally, the exceptional properties of these soils provide useful insights to improve classification of the Andosols reference group of the FAO World reference Base for Soil Resources.  相似文献   

Elastic properties and stability of coexisting 3T and 2M 1 phengite polytypes     

Nadia Curetti  Davide Levy  Alessandro Pavese  Gabriella Ivaldi 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2006,32(10):670-678

The elastic properties of coexisting natural 3T and 2M ₁ phengite samples (Cima Pal, Sesia Zone; Val Savenca; Western Alps, Italy) with similar chemical compositions have been studied by room temperature–high pressure powder diffraction, using synchrotron radiation on the ID9A beam-line at ESRF (Grenoble, France). The P–V curves have been modelled by the Birch–Murnaghan model; a third-order expansion fitted to the experimental data yields for 3T and 2M ₁ K ₀=60.4(±0.7) GPa, K′=5.79(±0.11) at V ₀=703.8851 ų, and K ₀=57.3(±1.0) GPa, K′=6.97(±0.24) at V ₀=938.8815 ų, respectively. The relative stability of 3T vs. 2M ₁ has been explored as a function of pressure and temperature in terms of configuration and deformation contributions to the Gibbs energy, using the elastic properties determined here and other thermodynamic parameters from earlier investigations. The results presented agree with the hypothesis of stability of the 3T polytype in the high pressure regime.  相似文献   

我国西部1∶5万地形图空白区地物解译研究——以西藏那曲其香错地区为例     

洪志刚  戴尔阜  储美华 《测绘科学》2005,(6)

我国西部部分地区1∶5万地形图数据尚未完成,给区域和国家经济发展带来极大不便。空间技术、计算机技术和信息技术的高速发展为遥感技术应用提供了技术支持,高分辨率影像获取能力的提高为大比例尺地物特征的提取提供了数据可能。本文采用SPOT5遥感影像,以1∶5万地形图图式标准为依据,进行青藏高原其香错地区地物判读,结果表明SPOT5能基本满足1∶5万地形图制图要求。为进一步提高判读结果,可采用多时相、多分辨率影像进行1∶5万地形图地物判读。  相似文献   

考虑关断时间效应的瞬变电磁一维反演   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3  

杨云见  王绪本  何展翔 《物探与化探》2005,29(3):234-236

为克服因关断时间校正而带来的误差,尝试直接对包含关断时间效应的瞬变电磁资料进行反演。正演采用将斜阶跃波离散为多个阶跃波之和的方法,反演采用经典的马奎特法。对模型试算的结果表明,采用该方法直接对斜阶跃响应进行反演,结果比较理想,计算速度也可以接受。  相似文献   

C1相干算法及其在三维地震资料处理解释中的应用     

丛茂祥  李洪亮 《中国煤田地质》2005,17(2):49-50,70

C1相干算法是计算每道的横测线和相邻纵测线的互相关，依据相干值来判断地层和岩性的横向不均匀性。根据互相关原理，提出了相干体算法中二维和三维C1算法的内容及其具体实现。通过对实际三维地震资料的处理，结合已知地质资料，证明C1相干技术在三维地震资料的断层解释方面有着明显的效果。  相似文献   

刘桥一矿陷落柱发育规律及含水性研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

黄大兴  王永功 《中国煤田地质》2005,17(4):35-37

根据刘桥一矿1971年建井至今发现的8个陷落柱实际资料，通过对揭露陷落柱的地质、水文地质及分布特征的分析，阐述了陷落柱发育的根基所在，对陷落柱发育规律及成因进行了探讨，对于含水陷落柱的注浆封堵、留设保护煤岩柱，以及本矿矿井的深部开采都具有借鉴意义。  相似文献   

基于GM(1,1)优化模型的岩石边坡变形预报     

巫德斌  徐卫亚 《地质灾害与环境保护》2002,13(4):60-63

岩石边坡系统是一典型灰色系统，其变形发展过程可以用灰色预测模型完成。尽管传统GM（1，1）模型预测有很多成功的实例，但是也存在一些预测偏差过大的情况，必须对其进行优化。逐步迭代法GM（1，1）模型不仅收敛速度快，而且与原始数据库序列的凹凸性保护一致。利用自编的计算程序对马步坎边坡预测测点G1沉降和开裂进行预测分析，结果表明逐步迭代法GM（1，1）优化模型计算精度较传统GM（1，1）模型和背景构造法GM（1，1）优化模型高，较好地反映了岩石边坡的变形趋势。  相似文献   

Late Cenozoic transpressional ductile deformation north of the Nazca–South America–Antarctica triple junction     

Jos Cembrano  Alain Lavenu  Peter Reynolds  Gloria Arancibia  Gloria Lpez  Alejandro Sanhueza 《Tectonophysics》2002,354(3-4)

The southern Andes plate boundary zone records a protracted history of bulk transpressional deformation during the Cenozoic, which has been causally related to either oblique subduction or ridge collision. However, few structural and chronological studies of regional deformation are available to support one hypothesis or the other. We address along- and across-strike variations in the nature and timing of plate boundary deformation to better understand the Cenozoic tectonics of the southern Andes.Two east–west structural transects were mapped at Puyuhuapi and Aysén, immediately north of the Nazca–South America–Antarctica triple junction. At Puyuhuapi (44°S), north–south striking, high-angle contractional and strike-slip ductile shear zones developed from plutons coexist with moderately dipping dextral-oblique shear zones in the wallrocks. In Aysén (45–46°), top to the southwest, oblique thrusting predominates to the west of the Cenozoic magmatic arc, whereas dextral strike-slip shear zones develop within it.New ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar data from mylonites and undeformed rocks from the two transects suggest that dextral strike-slip, oblique-slip and contractional deformation occurred at nearly the same time but within different structural domains along and across the orogen. Similar ages were obtained on both high strain pelitic schists with dextral strike-slip kinematics (4.4±0.3 Ma, laser on muscovite–biotite aggregates, Aysén transect, 45°S) and on mylonitic plutonic rocks with contractional deformation (3.8±0.2 to 4.2±0.2 Ma, fine-grained, recrystallized biotite, Puyuhuapi transect). Oblique-slip, dextral reverse kinematics of uncertain age is documented at the Canal Costa shear zone (45°S) and at the Queulat shear zone at 44°S. Published dates for the undeformed protholiths suggest both shear zones are likely Late Miocene or Pliocene, coeval with contractional and strike-slip shear zones farther north. Coeval strike-slip, oblique-slip and contractional deformation on ductile shear zones of the southern Andes suggest different degrees of along- and across-strike deformation partitioning of bulk transpressional deformation.The long-term dextral transpressional regime appears to be driven by oblique subduction. The short-term deformation is in turn controlled by ridge collision from 6 Ma to present day. This is indicated by most deformation ages and by a southward increase in the contractional component of deformation. Oblique-slip to contractional shear zones at both western and eastern margins of the Miocene belt of the Patagonian batholith define a large-scale pop-up structure by which deeper levels of the crust have been differentially exhumed since the Pliocene at a rate in excess of 1.7 mm/year.  相似文献