2017年江西汛期设区市城区暴雨回波特征分析   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

邓虹霞  智海  马中元  张瑛  何文 《气象科学》2019,39(2):274-284

使用江西WebGIS雷达拼图和自动站雨量、雷电监测、强天气监测等数据,以及MICAPS常规天气图资料,对2017年3—7月江西汛期11个设区市26次城区暴雨过程的雷达回波特征进行分析。结果表明:2017年江西汛期共出现52日暴雨过程,其中江西11个设区市所在地城区出现26次暴雨。在这26次城区暴雨个例中,有23次伴随出现短时强降水,有3次降水比较均匀。暴雨维持时间长短不一,最长的有15 h,最短只有3 h,平均是10 h。有5次出现大风天气,21次没有大风出现。雷达回波特征主要有3种:块状(强单体、超级单体)、带状(飑线、回波带)、絮状(絮带、絮团)。这3种回波形态特征,出现率最高的是絮状回波,即比较宽、嵌有中等强度的对流单体絮带状回波带,强度40～55 dBz,出现16次,概率62%;其次是窄而长、紧密排列由强单体组成的飑线回波带,强度50～60 dBz,出现8次,概率30%;块状(强单体、超级单体)回波强度最强,中心强度达到60～70 dBz,出现2次,概率8%。  相似文献   

Role of the Nocturnal Low-level Jet in the Formation of the Morning Precipitation Peak over the Dabie Mountains     

Peiling FU  Kefeng ZHU  Kun ZHAO  Bowen ZHOU  Ming XUE 《大气科学进展》2019,36(1):15-28

The diurnal variation of precipitation over the Dabie Mountains(DBM) in eastern China during the 2013 mei-yu season is investigated with forecasts of a regional convection-permitting model. Simulated precipitation is verified against surface rain-gauge observations. The observed morning precipitation peak on the windward(relative to the prevailing synoptic-scale wind) side of the DBM is reproduced with good spatial and temporal accuracy. The interaction between the DBM and a nocturnal boundary layer low-level jet(BLJ) due to the inertial oscillation mechanism is shown to be responsible for this precipitation peak. The BLJ is aligned with the lower-level southwesterly synoptic-scale flow that carries abundant moisture.The BLJ core is established at around 0200 LST upwind of the mountains. It moves towards the DBM and reaches maximum intensity at about 70 km ahead of the mountains. When the BLJ impinges upon the windward side of the DBM in the early morning, mechanical lifting of moist air leads to condensation and subsequent precipitation.  相似文献   

2010—2016年江西省暖季短时强降水特征分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

付超  谌芸  朱克云  单九生  曾智琳 《气象》2019,45(9):1238-1247

利用江西省2010—2016年5—9月1597个观测站逐小时降水资料对江西省短时强降水进行统计分析。采用REOF将降水场划分为5个区域：赣北南部（Ⅰ区）,抚州市及赣州中部（Ⅱ区）,赣北北部（Ⅲ区）,赣南南部、北部（Ⅳ区）以及赣中西部（Ⅴ区）。短时强降水高频区主要分布在山地及河谷附近,分别为湘赣交界罗霄山脉东侧、武夷山西侧、信江河谷、乐安河谷和昌江河谷。河谷附近短时强降水频次以昌江河谷最高（16.9次/a）,山地附近最高在罗霄山脉东侧（12.6次/a）,极端短时强降水分别位于上饶市东北部山区（3.7次/a）及九岭山南侧的锦江河谷（3.3次/a）。短时强降水主要发生在5月第3候,6、7月第3~4候以及8月第2~3候。Ⅳ、Ⅴ区具有单峰型的日变化特征;Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ区具有双峰型的日变化特征。主峰基本集中在下午17时;次峰在上午08—10时。短时强降水对暴雨贡献率基本在40%以上,Ⅰ、Ⅱ区的暴雨天气过程将近一半是由短时强降水贡献的。信江河谷是暴雨雨量中心,但并不是短时强降水雨量中心;昌江河谷与武夷山西麓既是暴雨中心也是短时强降水中心。  相似文献   

Relations indices de Végétation–Pluie au Burkina Faso: Cas du Bassin Versant du Nakambé/Relationship between Rainfall and Vegetation Indexes in Burkina Faso: A Case Study of the Nakambé Basin     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2)

Abstract

This work deals with the problem of the use of remote sensing data derived from NOAA/AVHRR observations for monitoring the West African Sahel climatic variability. NDVI is widely used in hydrological and climatological research, and in the study of global climatic changes. The relationships between NDVI and climatic parameters are not well established yet and are the focus of many studies. The relationships between NDVI and rainfall were studied at a 10-day time step in the Nakambe River basin in Burkina Faso in the Sahelo-Sudanian area over the years 1982–1999. Good correlations were found in the annual evolution of these two variables. The statistical analysis shows a significant relationship between NDVI and the sum of the annual rainfall with determination coefficients greater than 0.80. At the spatial scale of 0.5° × 0.5°, the determination coefficient ranges from 0.91 to 0.96. It was also found that the NDVI is a good indicator of the determination of the beginning and the end of the rainy season. It gives reasonably good results in comparison with the other methods commonly used in the study region.  相似文献   

Sustaining trajectories towards Sustainability: Dynamics and diversity in UK communal growing activities     

Rebecca White  Andrew Stirling 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(5):838-846

Civil society is a critical arena both for exploring Sustainability itself and for sustaining trajectories towards it through innovation, experimentation and debate. Innovations can be mould breaking and can challenge local institutions. Concurrently, initiatives may be fragile due to the development of new working relationships, reliance on voluntary labour and goodwill, and dependence on grant funding. Here we examine different aspects of what it takes to sustain grassroots trajectories for ‘communal growing’, given the pressures that groups and intermediary organisations practicing and supporting this activity experience, and the consequential need to build qualities like ‘resilience’. Attending carefully to the definition of this otherwise slippery concept, a particular focus is given to how contrasting aspects of temporality and agency lead to divergent constructions of ‘resilience’ and strategies for sustaining growing. We draw on fieldwork that explores the practice and support of communal growing in East Sussex, England, and directly associated activities at a national level.We find important interdependencies between communal growing projects and the intermediary organisations supporting them. Additionally there is huge diversity within and between both projects and the organisations that support them, including with respect to the ends to which growing is seen as a means. These ends link growing initiatives – both antagonistically and synergistically – to food, education and health systems. This diversity can be seen positively as: a source of innovation; facilitating the open and bottom up nature of growing; and, enabling the securing of greater financial support for the endeavour. What is less clear is how this plays into framing and configuring communal growing specifically in relation to achieving a more Sustainable and localised food system. We discuss the conceptual and methodological implications of these empirically derived observations with regards future research on grassroots innovations.  相似文献   

我国多雨季和少雨季的一些统计特征     

张建  汤懋苍 《高原气象》1988,(3)

通过对我国31年124季降水距平图的分析发现1.全国性的特多(少)雨季中,在高原东侧(95—105°E间)总有一少(多)雨带出现。2.多(少)雨季之后仍为多(少)雨季的持续性以春一夏最好,秋冬最差。3.一年中出现多雨季的次数与黑潮海温和西太平洋副高强度呈正相关。  相似文献   

Monitoring overburden layer changes and fault movements from time-lapse seismic data on the Valhall Field     

Thomas Røste  Martin Landrø  Paul Hatchell 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,170(3):1100-1118

A method developed by Røste et al. , which discriminates between layer thickness and velocity changes, is tested on pre-stack time-lapse seismic ocean bottom cable (OBC) data from the Valhall Field. A key parameter in this discrimination process is the dilation factor, α, which is the relative velocity change divided by the relative thickness change within a given layer. The high quality and good repeatability of the OBC data enables us to estimate α with a reasonable accuracy for α-values between 0 and −5. For α-values below −5, complementary information, like for instance geomechanics is required. For the top reservoir horizon we estimate a maximum subsidence of 0.50 m ± 0.29 m and a corresponding velocity decrease for the sequence from the seabed to the top reservoir of 2.0 m s⁻¹± 0.40 m s⁻¹.
Time-lapse distortion patterns with characteristic time-shift versus offset signatures are observed. The positions and vertical extents of the distortion zones are determined from ray path considerations and modelling. The distortion zones correlate with buried faults, indicating that a (time-lapse) distortion zone might be produced by a localized slip in a fault zone. We present an extended method which allows for vertical (in addition to lateral) variations in the relative thickness and velocity changes. This method can be viewed as a simplified version of time-lapse tomography, but involving fewer unknown parameters, giving more stability to the estimated changes in thickness and velocity. Using this technique, we are able to estimate α for positions with localized time-lapse distortions.  相似文献   

青藏高原雪盖异常对福建雨季旱涝影响的环流诊断   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

蔡学湛  吴滨  温珍治 《南京气象学院学报》2002,25(6):800-806

利用19555-1994年多种不同类型青藏高原积雪资料的综合再分析结果，通过分析青藏高原雪盖异常年冬季和初夏北半球大气环流特征，及北半球大气环流与福建雨季降水的遥相关，讨论高原雪盖异常反馈影响大气环流，进而导致福建雨季旱涝的可能途径，为在福建雨季旱涝预测中应用积雪因子提供一定的物理基础。  相似文献   

3S技术在晚稻长势监测中的综合应用研究   总被引：12，自引：1，他引：12  

李剑萍  郑有飞  殷剑敏  魏丽 《南京气象学院学报》2001,24(1):106-112

以江西省为试验区，探讨用RS－GIS－GPS技术监测作物长势的方法和途径。针对丘陵山区地形复杂、地块不成规模的情况，在GIS支持下，将数字高程数据、土地利用分类数据与GPS定位观测数据相结合，对NOAA／AVHRR进行判读，提取反映双季晚稻长势的植被指数，用该指数与GPS定位观测资料及地理信息数据进行监督分类监测苗情，并用迭代自组织分析法进行无GPS定位观测资料时相应时相的NOAA／AVHRR的长势监测。研究结果表明，选用的地理信息数据（数字高程数据、土地利用分类）与GPS定位观测资料相结合提高NOAA／AVHRR数据的利用效果是适合的和切实可行的。  相似文献   

广西主汛期降水量异常诊断分析     

李耀先  涂方旭  李桂峰  李秀存  张永强 《气象研究与应用》2001,22(1):1-7

通过对广西主汛期降水量的分析 ,初步确定了异常偏多和异常偏少年 ,分析广西主汛期平均降水量与太平洋海温场和大气环流的关系 ,筛选影响广西降水量的海温和 5 0 0 h Pa位势高度场因子 ;建立降水异常的统计诊断模型及概念诊断预测模型。  相似文献