基于AGA的SVM需水预测模型研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张灵  陈晓宏  刘丙军  王兆礼 《水文》2008,28(1):38-42,46

需水预测是一个由城市人口、工业水平、社会经济水平共同作用的多因素、多层次的复杂非线性系统.其结果将直接影响受区域水资源承载力约束的产业结构、布局形态等决策.作为一种集中参数预报方法,支持向量机方法具有对未来样本的较好的泛化性能,对于这类资料缺乏、系统结构尚欠清晰的问题可以取得较好的模拟和预测结果.基于此,本文将支持向量机方法引入需水预测领域,建立了需水预测支持向量机模型.同时,本文将加速遗传算法和支持向量机方法耦合起来,构造了支持向量机模型参数的自适应优化算法.模型在珠海市的应用实例表明:与简单遗传算法比较,AGA的模型参数寻优效率更高;与BP神经网络模型相比,SVM模型较好地解决了小样本、经验性等问题,并取得了较高的预测精度.  相似文献   

青岛奥运水域主要污染物环境容量的预测     

徐艳东  娄安刚  谭海涛  龙绍桥  石晓勇 《海洋科学》2006,30(2):38-42

通过对青岛奥运水域现场调查和资料分析,确定了奥运水域污染物的主要来源和主要污染物,然后在潮流模拟的基础上,利用物质输运方程数值模拟了2000~2003年污染物浓度的空间分布,其结果与现状调查基本吻合。最后再利用该输运方程,预测了奥运帆船水域的化学需氧量(COD)、氨氮(NH4 -N)、总磷(TP)的环境容量(中潮时分别为:69.948 t/d,7.46 t/d,0.5455 t/d),为奥运水域的目标管理提供科学依据。  相似文献   

南印度洋SST与南亚季风环流年代际变化的研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

朱娜  孙即霖 《海洋湖沼通报》2004,(4):1-9

利用美国NCEP全球大气再分析资料和JONES全球海表面温度异常(SSTA)资料，分析了南印度洋SSTA和南亚季风环流年代际变化的特征。研究发现，无论是南印度洋副热带海水辐合区的SST还是赤道以北非洲西海岸附近上升运动海区的SST的长期变化趋势，除了准3-5年的变化以外，还存在着明显的年代际的变化。对于全球最显著南亚季风环流的分析表明，南亚季风环流也存在明显的年代际时间尺度的变化。与南太平洋SST的年代际变化相比，南印度洋SST的变化周期要相对短一些。通过分析南半球冷空气年代际活动的特征发现，冷空气与南印度洋SST年代际时间尺度的变化具有密切的联系。  相似文献   

伶仃洋沉积动力特点的研究   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

应秩甫 《热带海洋学报》1995,(2)

位于珠江三角洲东侧的伶仃洋，因径流下泄与潮流进退的流向不一，使它各分流口门的出口水道都有主槽和支槽之分，即都有主干水道和分汊水道。陆架高盐海水入侵又使伶仃洋内沉积动力过程在空间分布上发生差异，如沉积物分布有粗－细－稍粗之分；而水体中的密度、速度差异，常常产生锋带，对水下地形的发展有不可忽视的影响。因而全面认识发生在伶仃洋内的沉积动力作用，对深水航道的选线极为重要。  相似文献   

Geophysical evidence of mud diapirism on the Mediterranean Ridge accretionary complex   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

A. Camerlenghi  M. B. Cita  B. Della Vedova  N. Fusi  L. Mirabile  G. Pellis 《Marine Geophysical Researches》1995,17(2):115-141

Mud volcanoes, mud cones, and mud ridges have been identified on the inner portion of the crestal area, and possibly on the inner escarpment, of the Mediterranean Ridge accretionary complex. Four areas containing one or more mud diapirs have been investigated through bathymetric profiling, single channel seismic reflection profiling, heat flow measurements, and coring. A sequence of events is identified in the evolution of the mud diapirs: initially the expulsion on the seafloor of gasrich mud produces a seafloor depression outlined in the seismic record by downward dip of the host sediment reflectors towards the mud conduit; subsequent eruptions of fluid mud may create a flat topped mud volcano with step-like profile; finally, the intrusion of viscous mud produces a mud cone.The origin of the diapirs is deep within the Mediterranean Ridge. Although a minimum depth of about 400 m below the seafloor has been computed from the hydrostatic balance between the diapiric sediments and the host sediments, a maximum depth, suggested by geometric considerations, ranges between 5.3 and 7 km. The presence of thermogenic gas in the diapiric sediments suggests a better constrained origin depth of at least 2.2 km.The heat flow measured within the Olimpi mud diapir field and along a transect orthogonal to the diapiric field is low, ranging between 16 ± 5 and 41 ± 6 mW m^–2. Due to the presence of gas, the thermal conductivity of the diapiric sediments is lower than that of the host hemipelagic oozes (0.6–0.9 and 1.0–1.15 W m^–1 K^–1 respectively).We consider the distribution of mud diapirs to be controlled by the presence of tectonic features such as reverse faults or thrusts (inner escarpment) that develop where the thickness of the Late Miocene evaporites appears to be minimum. An upward migration through time of the position of the décollement within the stratigraphic column from the Upper Oligocene (diapiric sediments) to the Upper Miocene (present position) is identified.  相似文献   

登陆我国热带气旋活动的年代际变化分析   总被引：16，自引：1，他引：16  

叶英  董波 《海洋预报》2002,19(2):23-30

本文利用1950－1999年西北太平洋热带气旋资料，对50年来登陆我国热带气旋的月际、年际和年代际变化及异常情况进行了统计分析，指出了登陆我国的热带气旋频数存在明显的年代际差异，并对比分析了同期的副热带高压等海洋大气环流指数的统计特征。  相似文献   

Circulation over the continental shelf in the northern Gulf of Mexico   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

J. Carter Ohlmann  P. Peter Niiler 《Progress in Oceanography》2005,64(1):45-81

  相似文献   

河口环流和盐水入侵Ⅱ--径流量和海平面上升的影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

胡松  朱建荣  傅得健  吴辉 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2003,33(3):337-342

本文利用本序列上篇论文建立的理想河口数值模式,研究径流量和海平面上升对河口环流和盐水入侵的影响.在径流量增大的情况下,口门内表层向海的流速增大,底层向陆的密度流减弱,滞流点下移.口门外侧向口门的密度流增大,上升流趋于增强.口门内盐水入侵减弱,口外盐度减小、冲淡水扩展范围增大.在口门上游北岸底层盐度下降明显,口门处南岸表层盐度下降明显.径流量变化对盐水入侵影响十分巨大.在海平面上升的情况下,拦门沙区域向陆的密度流增强,滞流点上移,表层向海的流动增大.口门内盐水入侵增强,口外盐度增大,冲淡水扩展范围减小.海平面上升对盐水入侵影响十分明显,北岸底层盐度增大尤为特出.  相似文献   

Influence of Current Width Variation on the Annual Mean Transport of the East Sakhalin Current: A Simple Model     

Yoichi?ShimadaEmail author  Atsushi?Kubokawa  Kay?I.?Ohshima 《Journal of Oceanography》2005,61(5):913-920

Recent observations suggest that the annual mean southward transport of the East Sakhalin Current (ESC) is significantly larger than the annual mean Sverdrup transport. Motivated by this observational result, transport of a western boundary current has been investigated using a simple numerical model with a western slope. This transport is defined as the instantaneous barotropic transport integrated from the western boundary to the offshore point where the barotropic velocity vanishes. The model, forced by seasonally varying wind stress, exhibits an annual mean of the western boundary current transport that is larger than that of the Sverdrup transport, as observed. The southward transport from October to March in the model nearly equals the instantaneous Sverdrup transport, while the southward transport from April to September decreases slowly. Although the Sverdrup transport in July vanishes, the southward transport in summer nearly maintains the annual mean Sverdrup transport, because the barotropic Rossby wave cannot intrude on the western slope. This summer transport causes the larger annual mean. Although there are some uncertainties in the estimation of the Sverdrup transport in the Sea of Okhotsk, the seasonal variation of the southward transport in the model is qualitatively similar to the observations.  相似文献   

东海区近海强风预报模式     

杨良华 《海洋预报》1995,12(4):34-42

本文探讨东海区近海强风预报模式，首先介绍建立预报模式的思路和步骤，及使用说明，为了验证强风预报模式和判别条件，用１９８６、１９８７上日本传真天气图进行试报，准确和基本准确度为９１．１％，并给出了１９８９、１９９５年随船试验预报结果，准确和基本准确率为９０％以上。  相似文献