辽东湾海洋工程可靠性设计的海冰参数选取     

马玉贤  关湃  许宁  许有良  袁帅  刘永青  于福祥 《海洋工程》2019,37(3):136-142

海冰参数的合理取值是海洋工程海冰灾害风险评估的重要内容。利用1950—2018年的冰情等级(5个等级)数据,进行了1950—2018、1950—1990、1991—2018三种情景下的回归分析,确定了不同时期的冰情等级概率分布密度函数。利用鲅鱼圈雷达观测站2002—2017年的海冰现场实测资料,分别对鲅鱼圈附近海域一般冰厚、最大冰厚、最小冰厚进行概率分布拟合。基于上述概率分布结果,给出不同冰情等级的重现期,进而对海冰作业条件给出的设计参考值进行评价。结果表明:1990年以后2级、3级冰情重现期相对1990年之前变小,4级、5级冰情重现期相对1990年之前变大,规范给出重现期范围已不能代表辽东湾冬季海冰情况。本研究成果可为辽东湾海洋工程可靠性设计提供重要数据支撑。  相似文献   

浙江省沿海陆域与舟山海域地闪回击特征分析     

陈军  孙轶  李京校  张骁  林伟  于梦颖 《气象科技》2022,50(1):139-146

采用2016-2020年浙江省闪电定位资料,利用Access和MATLAB对浙江省陆域、舟山海域地闪回击特征进行分析.结果显示:浙江省陆域年平均地闪回击密度为1.97次·km-2·a-1,正地闪回击密度为0.10次·km-2·a-1,正地闪回击占总地闪回击的5.1％,正地闪回击平均电流强度为42.49 kA,负地闪为3...  相似文献   

冬小麦拔节期灌溉防霜冻效果研究     

余卫东 《气象与环境科学》2018,41(2):13-19

以矮抗58为研究对象,在冬小麦拔节期设置灌溉与未灌溉两种水分处理,通过对无霜冻年份(2012年)和晚霜冻年份(2013年)的对比试验,分析晚霜冻害对冬小麦群体密度、干物质积累、产量及其构成要素的影响,探讨拔节期灌溉的防霜效果。研究结果表明:1)孕穗-抽穗期发生晚霜冻害可使冬小麦群体密度下降、产量显著降低。2012年的产量整体高于2013年的,且2012年未灌溉处理的产量显著高于2013年灌溉处理的(P0.05);受霜冻影响,2013年灌溉与未灌溉的成熟期密度分别比抽穗期下降11.8%和14.8%,地上部分总干物质重先显著下降而后逐渐恢复,和抽穗期相比其下降幅度分别为18.5%(灌溉)和33.7%(未灌溉)。2013年成熟期叶片干重占地上部分总干物质重比例为43.5%(灌溉)和41.0%(未灌溉),显著高于2012年的16.3%(灌溉)和4.1%(未灌溉)。2)无论是否有霜冻害发生,拔节期灌溉均可显著提高产量,灌溉处理产量分别比未灌溉处理的偏高16.3%(2012年)和24.5%(2013年)。霜冻年份拔节期灌溉处理可显著降低穗粒数损失和抽穗期以后叶面积指数的衰减速度。3)2013年灌溉处理较2012年灌溉处理减产23.6%,未灌溉处理较2012年未灌溉处理减产32.9%。拔节期灌溉能够有效减少霜冻造成的产量损失,但这主要是由水分增加所引起,抽穗期的冬小麦抗霜能力并没有提高。  相似文献   

区际贸易隐含碳排放转移研究进展与展望   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

李富佳 《地理科学进展》2018,37(10):1303-1313

区际贸易隐含碳排放转移是导致区际碳泄漏、碳减排权责失衡等问题的重要原因,对全球碳排放格局及碳减排效果影响重大。研究区际碳转移时空格局演化规律和内在驱动机理,研制针对性碳转移优化调控方案,对提升区域整体碳减排效率和经济生态综合效益,具有重要现实意义,近年来已引起了国内外学者越来越多的关注,逐渐成为区域可持续发展和生态经济研究的热点问题之一。本文对国内外区际碳转移的相关研究成果进行了梳理,重点总结了对中国省际隐含碳转移问题研究的进展和成果应用情况,展望了区际贸易碳转移问题未来研究的方向：进一步重视国际、省际碳排放转移间的协同研究,揭示区际碳排放转移的动态驱动力及驱动机理,探索创新基于共同责任的省际碳转移减排机制等。  相似文献   

An extreme value analysis of the flow of Burbage Brook     

J. H. Barrett 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1992,6(3):151-165

An extreme value analysis of the flow of Burbage Brook is carried out by modelling peaks over a high threshold. The aims are to illustrate recently developed statistical techniques and to report on interesting features of the flow of the brook over a 58-year period. Peak flows are found to show marked seasonal variation and a downward trend. Then-year return level is estimated for various values ofn, and the reliability of the estimates is assessed.  相似文献   

Evaluation of seismic hazard at Roermond, The Netherlands: A comparison of results after the 13 April 1992 earthquake     

M. García-Fernández  M. J. Jiménez  J. J. Egozcue 《Natural Hazards》1996,13(3):297-300

Mean return periods, RP, for the site of Roermond, The Netherlands, as calculated by different methods, are compared, and its quality evaluated by a simple two-tail test of hypothesis. Results show that RP values by the EGO-method are statistically more likely. They can be considered, despite their broad 90% probability intervals, and for the site and data used, more reliable, since the Roermond earthquake was not an unusual or surprising event for the Lower Rhine Embayment area, where earthquakes of comparable size have occurred since the 18th century.  相似文献   

Deep groundwater circulation and associated methane leakage in the northern Canadian Rocky Mountains     

《Applied Geochemistry》2016

Concern over potential impact of shale gas development on shallow groundwater systems requires greater understanding of crustal scale fluid movement. We examined natural deeply circulating groundwater systems in northeastern British Columbia adjacent to a region of shale gas development, in order to elucidate origin of waters, depths of circulation, and controls on fluid flow. These systems are expressed as thermal springs that occur in the deformed sedimentary rocks of the Liard Basin. Stable isotope data from these springs show that they originate as meteoric water. Although there are no thermal anomalies in the region, outlet temperatures range from 30 to 56 °C, reflecting depth of circulation. Based on aqueous geothermometry and geothermal gradients, circulation depths up to 3.8 km are estimated, demonstrating connection of deep groundwater systems to the surface. Springs are also characterised by leakage of thermogenic gas from deep strata that is partly attenuated by methanotrophic microbial communities in the spring waters. Springs are restricted to anomalous structural features, cross cutting faults, and crests of fault-cored anticlines. On a regional scale they are aligned with the major tectonic features of the Liard Line and Larsen Fault. This suggests that while connection of surface to deep reservoirs is possible, it is rare and restricted to highly deformed geologic units that produce permeable pathways from depth through otherwise thick intervening shale units. Results allow a better understanding of potential for communication between deep shale gas units and shallow aquifer systems.  相似文献   

Reflecting on the risks and ethical dilemmas of digital research     

《Geoforum》2016

As technology continues to evolve, digital methods are increasingly becoming key components of social and cultural geographers’ research toolkits. This paper explores the risky and uncertain dimensions of digital research by reflecting on an adverse ethical event which occurred in research involving young people and online dialogic diaries. Assemblage thinking is used to conceptually frame the data leakage event, the subsequent disruption of confidentiality, and the wide-ranging affects and effects that followed. Three particular issues which are critical for researchers working with digital methodologies to consider are highlighted: the ethical implications of procedural disruption, institutional responses within the neoliberal university, and researcher wellbeing. We conclude by advocating for researchers to continue to push boundaries with digital research but suggest that this needs to be undertaken in an informed way that takes account of the immanent potential for digital disruption.  相似文献   

热带气旋资料长度对风暴潮危险性评估结果的影响   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

刘永玲  冯建龙  江文胜  方伟华 《海洋学报》2016,38(3):60-70

热带气旋历史样本数不足一直困扰着风暴潮风险评估研究,本文基于西北太平洋62 a(1949-2010年)历史观测热带气旋事件集资料和用随机模拟方法构造的1000 a模拟热带气旋随机事件集,以福建省连江县为例,开展了资料长度对风暴潮灾害危险性评估结果的影响分析。文中用ADCIRC模型模拟了两种数据集强迫下的风暴潮增水,采用极值Ⅰ型分布法得到了典型重现期的风暴潮增水,经过对计算结果分析发现典型重现期的风暴潮增水计算结果与所用数据资料长度有着密切相关性,数据资料越长,结果越稳定。对于1000 a一遇的风暴潮增水值,使用500 a长度的资料已经趋于稳定,并接近用1000 a资料计算得到的结果。在进行风暴潮危险性评估时,相比用几十年尺度的热带气旋历史数据集,1000 a的热带气旋模拟数据集的计算结果更具实际意义。  相似文献   

控压钻井技术在涪陵页岩气田的实践与认识          下载免费PDF全文

陈林  范红康  胡恩涛  宋争  陈小龙 《探矿工程》2016,43(7):45-48

随着涪陵页岩气田勘探开发进程的不断深入,长水平段页岩气井在钻井过程中遇到的复杂事故愈发凸显。目的层龙马溪组,裂缝发育、岩性构成复杂且破碎严重,钻井中钻井液密度窗口窄,易发生垮塌、溢漏同存、水平井段漏失大量油基泥浆等问题。为了快速、安全有效地钻穿复杂页岩层段,采用控压钻井技术破解长水平段页岩气井井漏的钻井难题,在焦页33-4HF井应用控压钻井技术,在长水平段钻遇多个不同压力系数的漏失显示层,安全钻达完钻井深,大大减少了油基泥浆的漏失及其不良影响,减小了经济损失,取得了显著应用效果。  相似文献