Testing an earthquake prediction algorithm   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Vladimir G. Kossobokov  John H. Healy  James W. Dewey 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1997,149(1):219-232

A test to evaluate earthquake prediction algorithms is being applied to a Russian algorithm known asM8 TheM8 algorithm makes intermediate term predictions for earthquakes to occur in a large circle, based on integral counts of transient seismicity in the circle. In a retroactive prediction for the period January 1, 1985 to July 1, 1991 the algorithm as configured for the forward test would have predicted eight of ten strong earthquakes in the test area. A null hypothesis, based on random assignment of predictions, predicts eight earthquakes in 2.87% of the trials. The forward test began July 1, 1991 and will run through December 31, 1997. As of July 1, 1995, the algorithm had forward predicted five out of nine earthquakes in the test area, which success ratio would have been achieved in 53% of random trials with the null hypothesis.  相似文献   

用遗传算法反演地壳的变密度模型   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：7  

柯小平  王勇  许厚泽 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2004,29(11):981-984

用青藏高原布格重力异常资料 ,结合亚东 格尔木地学断面得到的Moho面结构 ,反演了青藏高原中部地壳内密度随深度变化的指数分布函数 ,试验得出地壳表层与地幔的密度差约为 - 0 .92 6 g·cm-3 ,地壳的平均密度值为 2 .75 0 g·cm-3 。  相似文献   

Evolutionary aseismic design and retrofit of structures with passive energy dissipation     

G. F. Dargush  R. S. Sant 《地震工程与结构动力学》2005,34(13):1601-1626

A new computational framework is developed for the design and retrofit of building structures by considering aseismic design as a complex adaptive process. For the initial phase of the development within this framework, genetic algorithms are employed for the discrete optimization of passively damped structural systems. The passive elements may include metallic plate dampers, viscous fluid dampers and viscoelastic solid dampers. The primary objective is to determine robust designs, including both the non‐linearity of the structural system and the uncertainty of the seismic environment. Within the present paper, this computational design approach is applied to a series of model problems, involving sizing and placement of passive dampers for energy dissipation. In order to facilitate our investigations and provide a baseline for further study, we introduce several simplifications for these initial examples. In particular, we employ deterministic lumped parameter structural models, memoryless fitness function definitions and hypothetical seismic environments. Despite these restrictions, some interesting results are obtained from the simulations and we are able to gain an understanding of the potential for the proposed evolutionary aseismic design methodology. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Implicit integration under mixed controls of a breakage model for unsaturated crushable soils          下载免费PDF全文

Yida Zhang  Giuseppe Buscarnera 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2016,40(6):887-918

This paper discusses a series of stress point algorithms for a breakage model for unsaturated granular soils. Such model is characterized by highly nonlinear coupling terms introduced by breakage‐dependent hydro‐mechanical energy potentials. To integrate accurately and efficiently its constitutive equations, specific algorithms have been formulated using a backward Euler scheme. In particular, because implementation and verification of unsaturated soil models often require the use of mixed controls, the incorporation of various hydro‐mechanical conditions has been tackled. First, it is shown that the degree of saturation can be replaced with suction in the constitutive equations through a partial Legendre transformation of the energy potentials, thus changing the thermomechanical state variables and enabling a straightforward implementation of a different control mode. Then, to accommodate more complex control scenarios without redefining the energy potentials, a hybrid strategy has been used, combining the return mapping scheme with linearized constraints. It is shown that this linearization strategy guarantees similar levels of accuracy compared with a conventional strain–suction‐controlled implicit integration. In addition, it is shown that the use of linearized constraints offers the possibility to use the same framework to integrate a variety of control conditions (e.g., net stress and/or water‐content control). The convergence profiles indicate that both schemes preserve the advantages of implicit integration, that is, asymptotic quadratic convergence and unconditional stability. Finally, the performance of the two implicit schemes has been compared with that of an explicit algorithm with automatic sub‐stepping and error control, showing that for the selected breakage model, implicit integration leads to a significant reduction of the computational cost. Such features support the use of the proposed hybrid scheme also in other modeling contexts, especially when strongly nonlinear models have to be implemented and/or validated by using non‐standard hydro‐mechanical control conditions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Quantifying flows along hydrological pathways by applying a new filtering algorithm in conjunction with master recession curve analysis          下载免费PDF全文

Ronan J. O'Brien  Bruce D. Misstear  Laurence W. Gill  Paul M. Johnston  Raymond Flynn 《水文研究》2014,28(26):6211-6221

Quantifying the proportion of the river hydrograph derived from the different hydrological pathways is essential for understanding the behaviour of a catchment. This paper describes a new approach using the output from master recession curve analysis to inform a new algorithm based on the Lyne and Hollick ‘one‐parameter’ signal analysis filtering algorithm. This approach was applied to six catchments (including two subcatchments of these) in Ireland. The conceptual model for each catchment consists of four main flow pathways: overland flow, interflow, shallow groundwater and deep groundwater. The results were compared with those of the master recession curve analysis, a recharge coefficient approach developed in Ireland and the semi‐distributed, lumped and deterministic hydrological model Nedbør‐Afstrømings‐Model. The new algorithm removes the ‘free variable’ aspect that is typically associated with filtering algorithms and provides a means of estimating the contribution of each pathway that is consistent with the results of hydrograph separation in catchments that are dominated by quick response pathways. These types of catchments are underlain by poorly productive aquifers that are not capable of providing large baseflows in the river. Such aquifers underlie over 73% of Ireland, ensuring that this new algorithm is applicable in the majority of catchments in Ireland and potentially in those catchments internationally that are strongly influenced by the quick‐responding hydrological pathways. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Retaining wall optimization using interior search algorithm with different bound constraint handling          下载免费PDF全文

A.H. Gandomi  A.R. Kashani  F. Zeighami 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2017,41(11):1304-1331

Along with the applicability of optimization algorithms, there are lots of features that can affect the functioning of the optimization techniques. The main purpose of this paper is investigating the significance of boundary constraint handling (BCH) schemes on the performance of optimization algorithms. To this end, numbers of deterministic and probabilistic BCH approaches are applied to one of the most recent proposed optimization techniques, named interior search algorithm (ISA). Apart from the implementing different BCH methods, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to find an appropriate setting for the only parameter of ISA. Concrete cantilever retaining wall design as one of the most important geotechnical problems is tackled to declare proficiency of the ISA algorithm, on the one hand, and benchmark the effect of BCH schemes on the final results, on the contrary. As results demonstrate, various BCH approaches have a perceptible impact on the algorithm performance. In like manner, the essential parameter of ISA can also play a pivotal role in this algorithm's efficiency. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Landform‐oriented flow‐routing algorithm for the dual‐structure loess terrain based on digital elevation models          下载免费PDF全文

Liyang Xiong  Guoan Tang  Shijiang Yan  Shijie Zhu  Yiying Sun 《水文研究》2014,28(4):1756-1766

The loess landform in the Loess Plateau of China is with typical dual structure, namely, the upper smooth positive terrain and the lower cliffy negative terrain (P–N terrain for short). Obvious differences in their morphological feature, geomorphological mechanism, and hydrological process could be found in the both areas. Based on the differences, a flow‐routing algorithm that separately addresses the dual‐structure terrain would be necessary to encompass this spatial variation in their hydrological behaviour. This paper proposes a mixed flow‐routing algorithm to address aforementioned problems. First, the loess landform surface is divided into P–N terrains based on digital elevation models. Then, specific catchment area is calculated with the new algorithm to simulate the water flows in both positive and negative terrain areas. The mixed algorithm consists of the multiple flow‐routing algorithm (multiple‐flow direction) for positive areas and the D8 algorithm for negative areas, respectively. The approach is validated in two typical geomorphologic areas with low hills and dense gullies in the northern Shaanxi Loess Plateau. Four indices are used to examine the results, which show that the new algorithm is more suitable for loess terrain in simulating the spatial distribution of water accumulation, as well as in modeling the flow characteristics of the true surface by considering the morphological structures of the terrain. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Slope stability analysis using evolutionary optimization techniques          下载免费PDF全文

A.H. Gandomi  A.R. Kashani  M. Mousavi  M. Jalalvandi 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2017,41(2):251-264

Slope stability optimization, in the presence of a band of a weak layer between two strong layers, is accounted for in complicated geotechnical problems. Classical optimization algorithms are not suitable for solving such problems as they need a proper preliminary solution to converge to a valid result. Therefore, it is necessary to find a proper algorithm which is capable of finding the best global solution. Recently a lot of metaheuristic algorithms have been proposed which are able to evade local minima effectively. In this study four evolutionary algorithms, including well‐known and recent ones, such as genetic algorithm, differential evolution, evolutionary strategy and biogeography‐based optimization (BBO), are applied in slope stability analysis and their efficiencies are explored by three benchmark case studies. Result show BBO is the most efficient among these evolutionary algorithms and other proposed algorithms applied to this problem. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Incremental elastoplastic FEM for simulating the deformation process of suction caissons subjected to cyclic loads in soft clays     

《Applied Ocean Research》2016

This paper presents an incremental elastoplastic finite element method (FEM) to simulate the undrained deformation process of suction caisson foundations subjected to cyclic loads in soft clays. The method is developed by encoding the total-stress-based bounding surface model proposed by the authors in the ABAQUS software package. According to the model characteristics, elastoplastic stress states associated with the incremental strains of each iteration are determined using the sub-incremental explicit Euler algorithm, and the state parameters describing the cyclic accumulative rates of strains are updated by setting state variables during the calculations. The radial fallback method is also proposed to modify the stress states outside the bounding surface to the surface during determination of the elastoplastic stress states. The stress reversals of soil elements are judged by the angle between the incremental deviatoric stress and the exterior normal vector at the image stress point on the bounding surface to update the mapping centre and state variables during cyclic loading. To assess the general validity of the method, the reduced scale model tests and centrifuge tests of suction caissons subjected to cyclic loads are simulated using the method. Predictions are in relative good agreement with test results. Compared with the limit equilibrium and quasi-static methods, the method can not only determine the cyclic bearing capacity, but can also analyse the deformation process and the failure mechanisms of suction caisson under cyclic loads in soft clays.  相似文献   

APG:A novel python-based ArcGIS toolbox to generate absence-datasets for geospatial studies     

Seyed Amir Naghibi  Hossein Hashemi  Biswajeet Pradhan 《地学前缘(英文版)》2021,12(6):90-104

One important step in binary modeling of environmental problems is the generation of absence-datasets that are traditionally generated by random sampling and can undermine the quality of outputs.To solve this problem,this study develops the Absence Point Generation(APG)toolbox which is a Python-based ArcGIS toolbox for automated construction of absence-datasets for geospatial studies.The APG employs a frequency ratio analysis of four commonly used and important driving factors such as altitude,slope degree,topographic wetness index,and distance from rivers,and considers the presence locations buffer and density layers to define the low potential or susceptibility zones where absence-datasets are gener-ated.To test the APG toolbox,we applied two benchmark algorithms of random forest(RF)and boosted regression trees(BRT)in a case study to investigate groundwater potential using three absence datasets i.e.,the APG,random,and selection of absence samples(SAS)toolbox.The BRT-APG and RF-APG had the area under receiver operating curve(AUC)values of 0.947 and 0.942,while BRT and RF had weaker per-formances with the SAS and Random datasets.This effect resulted in AUC improvements for BRT and RF by 7.2,and 9.7％from the Random dataset,and AUC improvements for BRT and RF by 6.1,and 5.4％from the SAS dataset,respectively.The APG also impacted the importance of the input factors and the pattern of the groundwater potential maps,which proves the importance of absence points in environmental bin-ary issues.The proposed APG toolbox could be easily applied in other environmental hazards such as landslides,floods,and gully erosion,and land subsidence.  相似文献