Simulation of quasi-linear mesoscale convective systems in northern China: Lightning activities and storm structure   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Wanli Li  Xiushu Qie  Shenming Fu  Debin Su  Yonghai Shen 《大气科学进展》2016,33(1):85-100

Two intense quasi-linear mesoscale convective systems(QLMCSs) in northern China were simulated using the WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model and the 3D-Var(three-dimensional variational) analysis system of the ARPS(Advanced Regional Prediction System) model.A new method in which the lightning density is calculated using both the precipitation and non-precipitation ice mass was developed to reveal the relationship between the lightning activities and QLMCS structures.Results indicate that,compared with calculating the results using two previous methods,the lightning density calculated using the new method presented in this study is in better accordance with observations.Based on the calculated lightning densities using the new method,it was found that most lightning activity was initiated on the right side and at the front of the QLMCSs,where the surface wind field converged intensely.The CAPE was much stronger ahead of the southeastward progressing QLMCS than to the back it,and their lightning events mainly occurred in regions with a large gradient of CAPE.Comparisons between lightning and non-lightning regions indicated that lightning regions featured more intense ascending motion than non-lightning regions;the vertical ranges of maximum reflectivity between lightning and non-lightning regions were very different;and the ice mixing ratio featured no significant differences between the lightning and non-lightning regions.  相似文献   

Verification and Correction of Cloud Base and Top Height Retrievals from Ka–band Cloud Radar in Boseong,Korea     

Su-Bin Oh  Yeon-Hee Kim  Ki-Hoon Kim  Chun-Ho Cho  Eunha Lim 《大气科学进展》2016,33(1):73-84

In this study,cloud base height(CBH) and cloud top height(CTH) observed by the Ka-band(33.44 GHz) cloud radar at the Boseong National Center for Intensive Observation of Severe Weather during fall 2013(September-November) were verified and corrected.For comparative verification,CBH and CTH were obtained using a ceilometer(CL51) and the Communication,Ocean and Meteorological Satellite(COMS).During rainfall,the CBH and CTH observed by the cloud radar were lower than observed by the ceilometer and COMS because of signal attenuation due to raindrops,and this difference increased with rainfall intensity.During dry periods,however,the CBH and CTH observed by the cloud radar,ceilometer,and COMS were similar.Thin and low-density clouds were observed more effectively by the cloud radar compared with the ceilometer and COMS.In cases of rainfall or missing cloud radar data,the ceilometer and COMS data were proven effective in correcting or compensating the cloud radar data.These corrected cloud data were used to classify cloud types,which revealed that low clouds occurred most frequently.  相似文献   

A microscale model for air pollutant dispersion simulation in urban areas: Presentation of the model and performance over a single building   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ning Zhang  Yunsong Du  Shiguang Miao 《大气科学进展》2016,33(2):184-192

A microscale air pollutant dispersion model system is developed for emergency response purposes. The model includes a diagnostic wind field model to simulate the wind field and a random-walk air pollutant dispersion model to simulate the pollutant concentration through consideration of the influence of urban buildings. Numerical experiments are designed to evaluate the model's performance, using CEDVAL(Compilation of Experimental Data for Validation of Microscale Dispersion Models) wind tunnel experiment data, including wind fields and air pollutant dispersion around a single building. The results show that the wind model can reproduce the vortexes triggered by urban buildings and the dispersion model simulates the pollutant concentration around buildings well. Typically, the simulation errors come from the determination of the key zones around a building or building cluster. This model has the potential for multiple applications; for example, the prediction of air pollutant dispersion and the evaluation of environmental impacts in emergency situations; urban planning scenarios;and the assessment of microscale air quality in urban areas.  相似文献   

相对湿度和PM_2.5浓度对大气能见度的影响研究:基于小时资料的多站对比分析          下载免费PDF全文

樊高峰  马浩  张小伟  刘樱 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2016,74(6):959-973

为了全面分析浙江省不同区域能见度变化基本特征及影响机理,基于杭州、宁波、温州3个国家基本气象站2013-2014年逐时能见度观测资料,比较分析了3市能见度变化的基本特征。发现3市不同等级能见度出现频率基本一致,随着能见度等级的提高,出现频率逐渐降低;从能见度的日变化来看,07时（北京时）前后最低,之后缓慢上升,14-15时达到最高,随后逐渐下降;全年有两个能见度较低时段,分别出现在12月-次年2月和5-6月;总体而言,宁波能见度最优,杭州和温州大体相当。功率谱分析结果表明,3市能见度均有显著的日周期,高频波段呈现出多个显著谱峰,低频波段存在若干显著谱峰。进一步开展机理分析,发现相对湿度和PM_2.5浓度是调制大气能见度的关键因子,相对湿度增大、PM_2.5浓度升高导致能见度降低。在同一相对湿度等级下,初始阶段能见度随PM_2.5浓度的升高迅速降低,到达“拐点”之后降低速率趋于缓慢。在同一PM_2.5浓度水平下,相对湿度越大,能见度越低,说明水汽对能见度也有重要影响。基于相对湿度和PM_2.5浓度两个因子,采用非线性拟合方案构建了大气能见度定量统计模型,总体而言模型拟合效果较好。最后针对研究中存在的不足和未来值得进一步发掘的科学问题进行了讨论。  相似文献   

黄海海雾WRF数值模拟中垂直分辨率的敏感性研究   总被引：9，自引：1，他引：8       下载免费PDF全文

杨悦  高山红 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2016,74(6):974-988

基于WRF模式探究不同垂直分辨率下模式对黄海海雾的模拟表现。将3种垂直分层方案（35η、44η与63η）和2种边界层方案（YSU、MYNN）组合,对10次海雾做模拟研究。统计分析了水平雾区与雾顶高度对垂直分辨率的敏感性,并利用1次典型个例剖析了雾顶长波辐射与雾体湍流的作用。统计结果显示,提高垂直分辨率能显著改进水平雾区的模拟效果,改善明显的个例在不同垂直分辨率试验下的雾顶高度差异也较大;YSU方案相比于MYNN方案更敏感,从35η层增至44η层其试验个例的击中率（POD）和公正预兆得分（ETS）的平均改进率分别提高了13.29%和10.22%。典型个例研究结果揭示,模式对雾顶长波辐射和雾体湍流作用的模拟程度强烈依赖垂直分辨率：粗垂直分辨率给出的湍流强度很弱,导致模拟失败;雾顶存在“云水含量增多→长波辐射增强→降温加大→云水含量增多”的正反馈过程,细垂直分辨率比粗垂直分辨率更容易维持与增强此反馈;只有细垂直分辨率才能模拟出雾顶长波辐射冷却产生的贯穿雾体直抵海面、强度不弱于近海面机械湍流的浮力湍流,它导致雾体降温而出现符合观测事实的海温高于气温的现象。  相似文献   

Cascades of green: A review of ecosystem-based adaptation in urban areas     

《Global Environmental Change》2016

Climate change impacts increase pressure on challenges to sustainability and the developmental needs of cities. Conventional, “hard” adaptation measures are often associated with high costs, inflexibility and conflicting interests related to the dense urban fabric, and ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) has emerged as a potentially cost-efficient, comprehensive, and multifunctional approach. This paper reviews and systematises research on urban EbA. We propose an analytical framework that draws on theory from ecosystem services, climate change adaptation and sustainability science. It conceptualises EbA in terms of five linked components: ecological structures, ecological functions, adaptation benefits, valuation, and ecosystem management practices.Our review identified 110 articles, reporting on 112 cities, and analysed them using both quantitative statistical and qualitative content analysis. We found that EbA research in an urban context is fragmented due to different disciplinary approaches and concepts. Most articles focus on heat or flooding, and the most studied ecological structures for reducing the risk of such hazards are green space, wetlands, trees and parks. EbA is usually evaluated in bio-geophysical terms and the use of economic or social valuations are rare. While most articles do not mention specific practices for managing ecological structures, those that do imply that urban EbA strategies are increasingly being integrated into institutional structures. Few articles considered issues of equity or stakeholder participation in EbA.We identified the following challenges for future EbA research. First, while the large amount of data generated by isolated case studies contributes to systems knowledge, there is a lack of systems perspectives that position EbA in relation to the wider socio-economic and bio-geophysical context. Second, normative and ethical aspects of EbA require more thought, such as who are the winners and losers, especially in relation to processes that put people at risk from climate-related hazards. Third, there is room for more forward-looking EbA research, including consideration of future scenarios, experimentation in the creation of new ecological structures and the role of EbA in transformative adaptation.  相似文献   

Logistic判别模型在强降水预报中的应用   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

张芳华  曹勇  徐珺  陶亦为  金荣花  代刊 《气象》2016,42(4):398-405

利用Logistiv判别模型进行强降水预报,并设计3种方案进行对比分析。方案1直接使用14个影响因子进行判别预报,受因子共线性作用及噪音信号影响,虽然拟合效果较好,但预报效果明显下降。方案2对14个影响因子进行主成分分析,利用前6个主成分建模,虽然拟合效果较方案1降低,但由于消除了因子共线性作用以及噪音信号影响,预报效果较方案1提高。方案3运用Bootstrap抽样技术得到符干样本并建模计算模型参数,打乱了原有时间序列中的波动,仪保留平稳信息,拟合自由度进一步降低,导致拟合效果较方案案2下降,但预报效果却是3种方案中最好且最稳定的。在上述研究基础上,利用欧洲中心数值预报模式的预报场资料,建立基于Logistic判别模型的强降水客观预报系统,并在中央气象台业务运行。2013和2014年连续两年汛期预报检验结果表明,概模型对强降水预报的TS评分高于数值模式本身,具有一定的业务参考价值。  相似文献   

风暴分类识别技术在人工防雹中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

方德贤  李红斌  董新宁  丁建芳  濮文耀 《气象》2016,42(9):1124-1134

利用新一代多普勒天气雷达资料,在风暴跟踪识别算法的基础上,发展了风暴分类技术,以提高人工防雹作业指挥的效率。首先以SCIT算法为基础,结合风暴的结构特征,综合利用雷达、探空资料,自动提取风暴结构特征指数;其次采用基于决策树模型的风暴自动分类技术,将风暴按强度分为雷雨云、单体风暴、多单体风暴和强风暴;最后根据风暴强度、高度和位置等属性,对有可能产生冰雹的单体,结合GIS,自动对下游方向或附近作业点进行预警或输出作业参数。通过对2006—2014年期间重庆、辽宁大连和河南三门峡三地发生的较为典型的31次冰雹天气过程、182站次冰雹样本的检验来看:该方法通过对风暴按强度、垂直结构等综合属性进行分类,能有效提高冰雹识别的命中率、降低空报率,其中强风暴的命中率能达到100%,空报率仅为11.4%。能有效提高人工防雹作业的自动化程度,对防雹作业的科学决策有着重要参考作用。  相似文献   

承德初霜冻预报指标分析及其预报方法     

彭九慧  李树丛  陆倩  杨庆红 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2016,10(3):15-20

应用常规观测资料与ncep1°×1°再分析资料,对承德市各县区初霜的时空分布特征及南北县区初霜出现时间的稳定性进行了分析,在对117个初霜环流形势分析的基础上,建立了初霜预报的天气概念模型;筛选因子,分县区确立了预报指标;采用概率、指标、数值预报产品相结合的方法及概率区间取值法建立了分县区初霜预报模型;检验表明,该模型对于中重度初霜冻预报准确率可达95%以上,对轻度初霜的预报准确率可达68%以上,无漏报出现。  相似文献   

基于DERF2.0的月平均温度概率订正预报   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

章大全  陈丽娟 《大气科学》2016,40(5):1022-1032

国家气候中心第二代月动力延伸模式回算资料的分析表明,二代模式月平均温度预报与观测实况仍然存在较大偏差,模式预报有较大改进空间。本文采用非参数百分位映射法对模式月平均温度预报进行概率订正,该方法基于模式集合平均给出的确定性预报,结合模式回算资料各集合成员计算得到的模式概率密度分布,给出确定性预报在模式概率密度分布中的百分位值,并将百分位值投影到观测资料的概率密度分布中,得到模式预报的概率订正值。对订正前后模式预报的检验评估显示,该订正方案不仅有效降低了模式预报与实况的均方根误差（RMSE）,对月平均温度距平分布的预报技巧也有所改善,不同超前时间模式预报的预测技巧评分（PS）和距平相关系数（ACC）均有提升,同时模式预报误差的大小对订正效果无明显影响。从分月的订正预报结果来看,对夏季各月的温度预测技巧的提升整体高于冬季各月。  相似文献