Ensemble prediction of regional droughts using climate inputs and the SVM–copula approach          下载免费PDF全文

Poulomi Ganguli  M. Janga Reddy 《水文研究》2014,28(19):4989-5009

In this study, the climate teleconnections with meteorological droughts are analysed and used to develop ensemble drought prediction models using a support vector machine (SVM)–copula approach over Western Rajasthan (India). The meteorological droughts are identified using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). In the analysis of large‐scale climate forcing represented by climate indices such as El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole Mode and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on regional droughts, it is found that regional droughts exhibits interannual as well as interdecadal variability. On the basis of potential teleconnections between regional droughts and climate indices, SPI‐based drought forecasting models are developed with up to 3 months' lead time. As traditional statistical forecast models are unable to capture nonlinearity and nonstationarity associated with drought forecasts, a machine learning technique, namely, support vector regression (SVR), is adopted to forecast the drought index, and the copula method is used to model the joint distribution of observed and predicted drought index. The copula‐based conditional distribution of an observed drought index conditioned on predicted drought index is utilized to simulate ensembles of drought forecasts. Two variants of drought forecast models are developed, namely a single model for all the periods in a year and separate models for each of the four seasons in a year. The performance of developed models is validated for predicting drought time series for 10 years' data. Improvement in ensemble prediction of drought indices is observed for combined seasonal model over the single model without seasonal partitions. The results show that the proposed SVM–copula approach improves the drought prediction capability and provides estimation of uncertainty associated with drought predictions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Varying water utilization of Haloxylon ammodendron plantations in a desert‐oasis ecotone          下载免费PDF全文

Hai Zhou  Wenzhi Zhao  Gefei Zhang 《水文研究》2017,31(4):825-835

Haloxylon ammodendron is a desert shrub used extensively in China for restoring degraded dry lands. An understanding of the water source used by H. ammodendron plantations is critical achieving sustainable vegetation restoration. We measured mortality, shoot size, and rooting depth in 5‐, 10‐, 20‐, and 40‐year‐old H. ammodendron plantations. We examined stable isotopic ratios of oxygen (δ¹⁸O) in precipitation, groundwater, and soil water in different soil layers and seasons, and in plant stem water to determine water sources at different shrub ages. We found that water acquisition patterns in H. ammodendron plantations differed with plantation age and season. Thus, the main water source for 5‐year‐old shrubs was shallow soil water. Water sources of 10‐year‐old shrubs shifted depending on the soil water conditions during the season. Although their tap roots could absorb deep soil water, the plantation main water sources were from soil water, and about 50% of water originated from shallow and mid soil. This pattern might occur because main water sources in these plantations were changeable over time. The 20‐ and 40‐year‐old shrubs acquired water mainly from permanent groundwater. We conclude that the main water source of a young H. ammodendron plantation was soil water recharged by precipitation. However, when roots reached sufficient depth, water originated mainly from the deep soil water, especially in the dry season. The deeply rooted 20‐ and 40‐year‐old shrubs have the ability to exploit a deep and reliable water source. To achieve sustainability in these plantations, we recommend a reduction in the initial density of H. ammodendron in the desert‐oasis ecotone to decelerate the consumption of shallow soil water during plantation establishment.  相似文献   

Building a model-based personalised recommendation approach for tourist attractions from geotagged social media data     

Xiaoyu Sun  Xia Peng  Yiran Chen  Yu Liu 《International Journal of Digital Earth》2019,12(6):661-678

When travelling, people are accustomed to taking and uploading photos on social media websites, which has led to the accumulation of huge numbers of geotagged photos. Combined with multisource information (e.g. weather, transportation, or textual information), these geotagged photos could help us in constructing user preference profiles at a high level of detail. Therefore, using these geotagged photos, we built a personalised recommendation system to provide attraction recommendations that match a user's preferences. Specifically, we retrieved a geotagged photo collection from the public API for Flickr (Flickr.com) and fetched a large amount of other contextual information to rebuild a user's travel history. We then created a model-based recommendation method with a two-stage architecture that consists of candidate generation (the matching process) and candidate ranking. In the matching process, we used a support vector machine model that was modified for multiclass classification to generate the candidate list. In addition, we used a gradient boosting regression tree to score each candidate and rerank the list. Finally, we evaluated our recommendation results with respect to accuracy and ranking ability. Compared with widely used memory-based methods, our proposed method performs significantly better in the cold-start situation and when mining ‘long-tail’ data.  相似文献   

O₂-O₂云反演算法及其在TROPOMI上的应用     

张文强  刘诚  郝楠  Gimeno Garcia Sebastian  邢成志  张成歆  苏文静  刘建国 《遥感学报》2020,24(11):1363-1378

利用遥感技术对大气环境污染进行监测时，云是影响痕量气体反演精度的重要因素，因此在痕量气体反演中需要对云的影响进行校正，通常使用的云参数主要是有效云量和云压。本文基于O₂-O₂ 477 nm吸收波段构建了O₂-O₂云反演算法：首先，根据有效云量和云高与连续反射率和O₂-O₂斜柱浓度之间的对应关系，结合假定的云模型利用VLIDORT辐射传输模型建立关于有效云量和云压的查找表；然后，通过差分吸收光谱技术拟合卫星载荷观测的大气层顶辐射，获得O₂-O₂斜柱浓度并计算连续反射率；最后，结合辅助数据，根据查找表进行插值反演获得有效云量和云压。通过将算法应用到OMI观测数据，将反演结果与OMCLDO2产品进行对比验证，有效云量和云压空间分布一致，相关系数R均超过0.97；并还将该算法应用于下一代大气成分监测仪器TROPOMI，与FRESCO+产品对比，有效云量和云压空间分布基本一致，当地表类型为海洋时，有效云量相关系数R大于0.97，云压相关系数R大于0.94，云压反演结果存在一定的区别；通过将O₂-O₂云反演算法和FRESCO+云压反演结果与CALIOP Cloud Layer产品进行对比，结果表明，在低云情况下，O₂-O₂云反演算法线性回归方程斜率为0.782，截距为198.0 hPa，相关系数R为0.850，算法表现优于FRESCO+。而在高云情况下，FRESCO+反演结果更接近CALIOP云压结果。在OMI和TROPOMI上的应用表明O₂-O₂云反演算法在大气云反演中具有较高的准确性和可行性，可以为大气痕量气体反演的校正提供云参数，并为中国同类型卫星载荷的云反演算法提供算法参考。  相似文献   

Geospatial data mining for digital raster mapping     

Bruce K. Wylie  Neal J. Pastick  Joshua J. Picotte  Carol A. Deering 《地理信息系统科学与遥感》2019,56(3):406-429

We performed an in-depth literature survey to identify the most popular data mining approaches that have been applied for raster mapping of ecological parameters through the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remotely sensed data. Popular data mining approaches included decision trees or “data mining” trees which consist of regression and classification trees, random forests, neural networks, and support vector machines. The advantages of each data mining approach as well as approaches to avoid overfitting are subsequently discussed. We also provide suggestions and examples for the mapping of problematic variables or classes, future or historical projections, and avoidance of model bias. Finally, we address the separate issues of parallel processing, error mapping, and incorporation of “no data” values into modeling processes. Given the improved availability of digital spatial products and remote sensing products, data mining approaches combined with parallel processing potentials should greatly improve the quality and extent of ecological datasets.  相似文献   

利用旋转平台模拟双河口羽流相互作用的研究     

戴娟娟  袁野平  宋浩宸 《海洋与湖沼》2020,51(5):1108-1117

本文通过旋转平台实验室实验的方法,探讨了双河口情况下两个羽流将如何发生相互作用。在研究中,提出了一种新颖的技术对河口羽流的各切面流场进行测量,来获得河口羽流多个平面的速度场及涡度场,并基于此模拟了双河口羽流系统的准三维结构。通过对不同入流速度下的双河口羽流流场演变过程和内部结构进行了一系列对比研究,以期揭示上游河流的入流如何影响下游河口涡旋的形成及在羽流相互作用情形下各个羽流的演变。实验结果表明:随着上游入流流量的增加,上游羽流形成的沿岸流对下游河口涡旋沿岸迁移的促进和离岸输运的抑制作用将更加显著。特别是在上游入流流量等于或大于下游入流流量的情况下,下游羽流河口涡旋的体积增长明显较单一河口情况放缓。在上游入流流量较大的情况下,下游原有河口涡旋被推向更下游位置,在远离河口的位置形成另一个河口涡旋。在垂直方向上,我们可以观察到高上游入流流量条件下的下游河口涡旋的深度较小,更有利于形成三层流体的情况。本研究对多河口近海流域的营养盐及污染物的输运情况等社会和生态问题的研究有着重要的意义。  相似文献   

南海北部海域油气勘探保障建设选址适宜性研究     

武二亮  陈浩东  刘裕光  安永宁 《海岸工程》2020,39(4):256-262

为分析南海北部海域油气勘探保障建设选址的适宜性,在广泛研究备选区特征资料的基础上,基于层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP)原理,以自然环境因素、开发环境因素、基础设施与投资情况以及其他因素作为一级评判准则,建立了包括12项二级评判准则的递进层次结构模型,并以永兴岛、赵述岛和晋卿岛作为3个假定备选区,来验证分析评价模型的有效性和可靠性。AHP评判结果显示,3个备选区的整体优劣指数依次为0.587 1, 0.212 1, 0.200 8;AHP模型的一致性比例CR值为0.020 3。通过分析和筛选影响远海油气勘探保障建设的选址因子,构建基于AHP原理的选址评价模型,可用于分析评价南海北部岛礁油气勘探保障建设选址的适宜性。  相似文献   

Calibration of paired watersheds: Utility of moving sums in presence of externalities          下载免费PDF全文

Herbert Ssegane  Devendra M. Amatya  Augustine Muwamba  George M. Chescheir  Tim Appelboom  E.W. Tollner  Jami E. Nettles  Mohamed A. Youssef  François Birgand  R.W. Skaggs 《水文研究》2017,31(20):3458-3471

Historically, paired watershed studies have been used to quantify the hydrological effects of land use and management practices by concurrently monitoring 2 similar watersheds during calibration (pretreatment) and post‐treatment periods. This study characterizes seasonal water table and flow response to rainfall during the calibration period and tests a change detection technique of moving sums of recursive residuals (MOSUM) to select calibration periods for each control–treatment watershed pair when the regression coefficients for daily water table elevation were most stable to minimize regression model uncertainty. The control and treatment watersheds were 1 watershed of 3–4‐year‐old intensely managed loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) with natural understory, 1 watershed of 3–4‐year‐old loblolly pine intercropped with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), 1 watershed of 14–15‐year‐old thinned loblolly pine with natural understory (control), and 1 watershed of switchgrass only. The study period spanned from 2009 to 2012. Silvicultural operational practices during this period acted as external factors, potentially shifting hydrologic calibration relationships between control and treatment watersheds. MOSUM results indicated significant changes in regression parameters due to silvicultural operations and were used to identify stable relationships for water table elevation. None of the calibration relationships developed using this method were significantly different from the classical calibration relationship based on published historical data. We attribute that to the similarity of historical and 2010–2012 leaf area index on control and treatment watersheds as moderated by the emergent vegetation. Although the MOSUM approach does not eliminate the need for true calibration data or replace the classic paired watershed approach, our results show that it may be an effective alternative approach when true data are unavailable, as it minimizes the impacts of external disturbances other than the treatment of interest.  相似文献   

Site characterization model using least‐square support vector machine and relevance vector machine based on corrected SPT data (Nc)     

Pijush Samui  T. G. Sitharam 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2010,34(7):755-770

Statistical learning algorithms provide a viable framework for geotechnical engineering modeling. This paper describes two statistical learning algorithms applied for site characterization modeling based on standard penetration test (SPT) data. More than 2700 field SPT values (N) have been collected from 766 boreholes spread over an area of 220 sqkm area in Bangalore. To get N corrected value (N_c), N values have been corrected (N_c) for different parameters such as overburden stress, size of borehole, type of sampler, length of connecting rod, etc. In three‐dimensional site characterization model, the function N_c=N_c (X, Y, Z), where X, Y and Z are the coordinates of a point corresponding to N_c value, is to be approximated in which N_c value at any half‐space point in Bangalore can be determined. The first algorithm uses least‐square support vector machine (LSSVM), which is related to a ridge regression type of support vector machine. The second algorithm uses relevance vector machine (RVM), which combines the strengths of kernel‐based methods and Bayesian theory to establish the relationships between a set of input vectors and a desired output. The paper also presents the comparative study between the developed LSSVM and RVM model for site characterization. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于CityEngine的三维城市规划设计与研究     

李宏旭  杨李东 《测绘与空间地理信息》2016,(5):55-57

城市规划领域越来越需要三维建模技术的支持。CityEngine作为一种新型的三维建模软件,不仅可以批量生成规划模型,还可以用来辅助三维城市规划设计。本文基于CityEngine规则建模方法,实现了规划方案对比、建筑体量调整、规划指标计算等功能,通过对某小区进行实际建模验证,证明了CityEngine可以为城市规划者们提供新的思路,为城市设计和城市管理提供决策支持。  相似文献