琼州海峡海口站近岸风暴增水概率风险分析     

陈玲舫  韩树宗  车志伟  罗耀  谢强 《海洋工程》2017,35(2):115-122

基于海口站1976~1997年逐时潮位和逐日最大风速资料,利用阿基米德Copula函数构建海口年最大增水与相应日期最大风速的联合概率分布模型。结果表明:1)广义极值分布可作为海口站年最大增水和相应日期最大风速的边缘分布。两个序列之间存在强正相关关系,G-H Copula函数更适用于作为海口站年最大增水和相应日期的最大风速联合概率分布的连接函数。2)两变量联合作用的同频率增水高度设计值与增水的单变量边缘分布设计值之间的相对差值约为7.5%。3)条件概率1(P(Y≥y|X≥x))中同频率的年最大增水和相应风速的遭遇概率介于78.2%~80.9%,条件概率2(P(Y≥y|X≤x))中同频率的年最大增水和相应风速两者的遭遇概率小于4.8%。  相似文献   

全过程联合校正方法在饶河流域洪水预报中的应用研究     

王钦钊  黄一昕  梁忠民  邓晓栋 《水文》2021,41(2):45-50

为提高饶河流域洪水预报精度,将全过程联合校正(EPJC)方法与三水源新安江(XAJ)模型结合,按一定比例划分洪水预报总误差为各过程误差,基于系统响应理论反演得到面雨量计算误差和模型参数误差,重新输入流域水文模型正演得出校正后的洪水过程.选取洪峰流量相对误差、峰现时间绝对误差、径流深相对误差和确定性系数作为模型评价指标,...  相似文献   

地震-电成像联合探测试验——以淄博市活断层探测为例   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

朱涛  何正勤  冯锐  郝锦绮  周建国  王华林  王硕卿 《地震地质》2007,29(2):373-380

在城市浅部活断层探测中,地震和电成像是2种主要的地球物理勘探手段。它们既可独立开展工作,也可在地质构造复杂地段进行联合探测,以更合理地解释探测区域的地质构造。文中利用电阻率和地震纵波速度之间的简单关系,进行了地震-电成像联合反演的初步探索。结果表明,通过参考电成像图像的电阻率分布,可获得合理的准二维地震波叠加速度模型,最终获得探测区域合理的地震时/深剖面,深化对地质构造的认识和提供合理的解释  相似文献   

Matlab与高级编程语言在科学计算中的联合运用   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

高立峰  陈飞  胡光武  殷翔  沙宏武 《地震地磁观测与研究》2007,28(2):111-114

在数字地震观测、地震预报及地震工程研究中,Matlab作为一套功能强大的科学计算及数学分析软件,得到广泛的应用.本文介绍如何将Matlab高效的数值计算和分析能力与高级编程语言结合的方法.  相似文献   

Joint probability density function of the stochastic responses of nonlinear structures     

陈建兵  李杰 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2007,6(1):35-47

The joint probability density fimction （PDF） of different structural responses is a very important topic in the stochastic response analysis of nonlinear structures. In this paper, the probability density evolution method, which is successfully developed to capture the instantaneous PDF of an arbitrary single response of interest, is extended to evaluate the joint PDF of any two responses. A two-dimensional partial differential equation in terms of the joint PDF is established. The strategy of selecting representative points via the number theoretical method and sieved by a hyper-ellipsoid is outlined. A two-dimensional difference scheme is developed. The free vibration of an SDOF system is examined to verify the proposed method, and a flame structure exhibiting hysteresis subjected to stochastic ground motion is investigated. It is pointed out that the correlation of different responses results from the fact that randomness of different responses comes from the same set of basic random parameters involved. In other words, the essence of the probabilistic correlation is a physical correlation.  相似文献   

Nonlinear aspects of energy dissipation in wood-panel joints   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Sara Casciati 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2007,6(3):259-268

The joints connecting vertical and horizontal elements are the "weak link" in structural systems assembled from wood panels. If they are too weak, local failures may occur, resulting in performance that is significantly below expectations. If they are too resistant, the joints may be unable to dissipate energy during vibrations, thus possibly initiating a fast progressive failure. This paper re-processes and re-elaborates the results of shaking table tests previously carried out by the author and other co-workers. The goal is to assess the feasibility of a joint which is able to dissipate energy during vibration, without degrading the connection performance.  相似文献   

隔板贯通式梁柱节点抗震性能试验研究   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

李黎明  陈志华  李宁 《地震工程与工程振动》2007,27(1):46-53

设计了低周反复荷载作用下3个十字形足尺隔板贯通式梁柱节点试件(其中2个节点的柱子浇筑了混凝土,1个为空钢管)的拟静力试验。通过研究拟静力试验所得的滞回曲线求得该节点的等效阻尼比,衡量它的耗能能力。从恢复力特性曲线得到了和一次加载相接近的骨架曲线,节点的初始刚度和刚度退化等参数。通过这些从强度、变形和能量等三方面判别和鉴定隔板贯通式梁柱节点的抗震性能,并得出了一些具有参考价值的结论。  相似文献   

Fractographic determination of joint length distribution in chalk     

Dov Bahat 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》1988,21(1):79-94

Summary Measurements of fracture joint distribution combined with determinations of plume length and orientation on a vertical section of a single chalk layer near Beer Sheva, Israel, reveal that joints marked by unilateral and circular plumes are skewed towards the shorter sizes while joints decorated by bilateral plumes are skewed towards the longer sizes. The mean lengths of the unilateral and bilateral joints are 66.5 cm and 155.6 cm, with standard deviations of 30 cm and 60.6 cm, respectively. These results as well as joint length observations from other areas seem to suggest a bimodal length distribution. However, since the minor maximum is generally very weak, and due to some additional uncertainties, further confirmation of the present observations is needed.  相似文献   

Shear resistance of jointed rock masses and stability calculation of rock slopes     

Xing Zhang 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》1993,11(2):107-124

Summary Based on an extension to a model originally proposed by Zhang (1990), a method for estimating the shear strength of a jointed rock mass containing two joint sets is developed. Compared to the original method in which only a single en-echelon joint set was considered, the new method has the following advantages: (1) it allows a much more realistic joint pattern to be incorporated; (2) the effects of joint connectivity and intersection angle between joint sets on shear strength are included. Use of the new method is demonstrated by application to the calculation of the stability of slopes in jointed rock. The importance of joint connectivity, joint persistence and joint set intersection angle on slope stability, as predicted by the model, is revealed.  相似文献   

Tomographic determination of 3-D crustal structure — Joint inversion of explosion and earthquake data     

Xian-Kang Zhang  Zhuo-Xin Yang  Yu-Chun Yang  Jian Yang  Jian-Li Song  Ping Zhao 《地震学报(英文版)》1995,8(4):519-529

In this paper, the theory and method, obtaining the tomographic determination of three-dimensional velocity structure of the crust by use of the joint inversion of explosion and earthquake data, are given. The velocity distribution of the crust is regarded as a continuous function of the spatial coordinates without parametrization of the velocity model ahead, so that the inversion solution would not be influenced by different parametrization procedures. The expressions of integration kernels, which relates the two kinds of data sets, are also given. The authors have processed the observed data in Tangshan earthquake region by the method proposed in this paper, and obtained the tomographic results of the middle and upper crust structures in this region. The comparison of these results with the result obtained only by the explosion data, has also been made.  相似文献