b值在地震预测中的三类应用及其物理基础与须注意的问题   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

韩渭宾 《四川地震》2003,(1):1-5

将b值在地震预测中的直接应用归为三类：1）根据b值的动态变化预测地震。2）根据G－R律求出各级地震平均复发周期或年均发生率，推测未来一定时段如50年或100年内发生各级地震的危险性。3）根据G－R直线在横轴的截距，预测强余震的震级。讨论了这三种用法的物理基础及现有工作中容易出现的问题。  相似文献   

高维PP时间序列分析在地震预报中的应用   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

王琼  朱令人 《地震工程学报》2003,25(2):103-111

将投影寻踪(PP)与高维时间序列分析结合起来，建立了地震PP综合预测模型。并选取祁连山地区作研究区，做了未来三个月内最大震级的短期预测，经展望式检验，合格率(预测误差≤0．5或≤10％)≥80％。中根据实际需要提出建立一定震级门限(M≥4．0)的预测具有更好的效果。本预测模型还可增加自变量、维数和改变时间尺度，并运用到其他领域中。  相似文献   

邛崃4.5级地震与震后趋势判断     

袁海良  朱昌保  宋杰  高进  任寰 《地震地磁观测与研究》2003,24(4):80-83

邛崃地震发生后，成都市地震局很快做出反应，及时开展了地震考察并做出了正确的震后趋势判断，取得了较好的社会效益。  相似文献   

Recent Precipitation Trends in Hungary in the Context of Larger Scale Climatic Changes   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Domonkos  Peter 《Natural Hazards》2003,29(2):255-271

The time series of monthly precipitation totals from 14 Hungarian observing stations (1901–1998) were analysed to reveal the long term changes in precipitation characteristics occurred in the 20th century. A particular attention was given to the changes in the recent decades and their links with the larger scale climatic and circulation changes over Europe and the Atlantic.The statistical significancesof systematic changes are controlled by linear trend analysis and the Mann–Kendall test. The long term fluctuations are illustrated applying a 15-point Gaussian filter on the time series. The Standardised Precipitation Index is used to evaluate the changes in the drought event frequency. The relationships with larger scale changes are mostly discussed relying on contemporary papers, and the Grosswetterlagen Catalogue is used as well.The annual precipitation total decreased by 15–20% in Hungary during the 20th century. The decline is substantial in both halves of the century, but the precipitation sums in the transition seasons declined in the first 50 years, and the winter precipitation decreased in the latest decades. The precipitation total of the period November–February declined significantly in the last 50 years. In the same time the mean winter value of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) increased, the positions of the main pressure patterns over the Atlantic are shifted northeastward, and lot of other coherent changes detected in the winter climate of the European–Atlantic region. The mean summer precipitation total has hardly changed, but the frequency of summer drought events increased. There are some signs of a shift of the Hungarian summer climate towards a Mediterranean like climate.  相似文献   

Copper-Polymetal Metallogenic Series and Prospecting Perspective of Eastern Section of Gangdise   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

ZhengYouye XueYingxi GaoShunbao 《中国地质大学学报(英文版)》2003,14(4):349-355

Geological, geophysical, geochemical and remote sensing comprehensive studies show that big ore-prospecting potentiality is contained in the eastern section of the Gangdise Mountains, Tibet.There are various mineralization types with dominant types of porphyry and exhalation. According to their relations with tectonic evolution, they are divided into four kinds of metallogenic series as follows:magnmtic type (Cr, Pt, Cu, Ni) and exhalation type (Cu, Pb, Zn, Ag) ore deposit series related to Neo-Tethys oceanic crust subduction action (125-96 Ma); epithermai type (Au, Ag, Pb, Zn, Sb), altered fractured rock type (Cu, Mo) and skarn rock type (Cu) ore deposit series related to arc-continental collision; porphyry type (Cu, Mo), cryptoexplosion breccia type (Cu, Au, Pb, Zn), shear zone type (Au, Ag, Sb) and skarn rock type (Cu, Fe) ore deposit series with relation to post-orogenic extensional strike-slip. From subductive complex to the north, zoning appears to be crystallization differentiation type (segregation type)-shear zone type (altered rock type)-skarn rock type, epithermai type-porphyry type-porphyry type and exhalation type-exhalation type-hydrothermai filling-replacement type.The ore deposit is characterized by multi-places from the same source, parity and multi-stage, hypabyssal rock from the deep source and poly genetic compound as a whole.  相似文献   

卫星测高问题的球谐级数解法   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

于锦海 《测绘学院学报》2003,20(1):7-9

研究了球界面下卫星测高问题的解法，利用有限逼近方法得到了下列结论：若陆地部分是球冠，则卫星测高问题的解可以转换成关于球谐级数位系统的线性方程组。同时证明了常用的Stokes问题、Dirichlet问题、Neumann问题可以看成卫星测高问题的特殊情况。  相似文献   

Multiresolution Flux Decomposition     

J. F. Howell  L. Mahrt 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1997,83(1):117-137

Geophysical variables are orthogonally decomposed by averaging timeseries using different averaging lengths, referred to as a (Haar)multiresolution decomposition. This simple and economic decomposition isassociated with cospectra that formally satisfy Reynolds averaging rules foreach averaging length. The multiresolution decomposition provides a naturalestimate of the random error in estimating a mean turbulent flux. The Fourierand multiresolution decompositions are compared using aircraft data fromBOREAS.  相似文献   

北淮阳金寨—苏仙石地区中生代花岗岩类岩石学及地球化学特征   总被引：4，自引：4，他引：4  

李家振  刘文灿 《现代地质》1997,11(1):102-110

位于大别山北麓的北淮阳金寨—苏仙石地区广泛发育花岗岩类侵入岩，同位素年龄为１４０～９７Ｍａ，时代属Ｊ３—Ｋ１。根据侵入岩的地质、岩石学和岩石地球化学特征，将本区侵入岩划分为３个超单元（包括１０个单元）和３个独立单元，分属中性岩和酸性岩两大类，岩石类型有闪长岩、二长岩和花岗岩等。根据岩石化学的判别结果，侵入岩均属亚碱性系列中的钙碱性岩石，并属于普通型和钾质型  相似文献   

先进的大地电磁资料处理和反演方法在INDEPTH-MT中的应用研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

谭捍东  陈乐寿 《现代地质》1997,11(3):393-400

简述了包括Ｒｏｂｕｓｔ估计、阻抗张量分解、Ｒｈｏｐｌｕｓ理论、二维快速松弛反演、静位移校正等一些先进的大地电磁资料处理和反演方法的理论。结合ＩＮＤＥＰＴＨ ＭＴ实测资料例举了它们的应用效果。提供了一套处理野外资料的系统流程。  相似文献   

西藏聂拉木高喜马拉雅结晶岩系的伸展变形     

何政伟  王根厚 《世界地质》1997,16(2):1-6

西藏聂拉木高喜马拉雅结晶岩系在区域上以单一的叶理和单一的拉伸线理占主要地位，其变形带的组构主要反映了透入性的伸展变形；根据显微构造分析表明早期由北往南推覆，晚期由南向北伸展，且晚期表现非常明显。  相似文献