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101.
102.
The Florida State University (FSU) multimodel superensemble forecast is evaluated against several other operational weather models for the Southeast Asia region. The superensemble technique has demonstrated its exceptional skills in forecasting precipitation, motion and mass fields compared to either individual global operational or ensemble mean forecasts. The motion field investigation for the season of 2001 reveals that the superensemble forecasts are closer to the observed data compared to the other global member operational models through its low systematic errors at the 850 hPa level. The FSU multimodel superensemble forecasts exhibit the lowest root mean square errors (RSMEs), the highest correlation against the best observed data and the lowest systematic errors compared to the other operational model members. These forecasts have the potential to provide better daily weather predictions over the Southeast Asia region, particularly during the early northeast monsoon that often causes heavy rainfall in the equatorial part of the Southeast Asia region.  相似文献   
103.
During the excavations for the foundations of a three storey building on the limestone tuffs of Condeixa, Central Portugal, a large dissolution fissure and smaller dissolution voids were found. Since the area has never been the subject of engineering geology investigation, it was decided to evaluate the risk associated with the construction of the building. These limestone tuffs were formed in a continental environment by the precipitation of calcite carried by the water coming from the large limestone body in the east. The precipitated calcite mixed with the terrigenous materials and around trunks and leaves of plants, originating a very heterogeneous and porous ground, which is characteristic of limestone tuffs. The study started with a detailed geological survey followed by a large number of destructive drillings, located essentially under the pad foundations. The results revealed several karstic cavities with serious problems for the building foundations and the structure, and many smaller dissolution cavities, often filled with clayey soils. The ground treatment solutions used included, dental cleaning, filling with concrete or granular material the dissolution structures accessible at the level of the foundation, reinforcement of the footing and the structure of the building and adding a continuous foundation beam to hold the foundations together. The cost of the engineering geology study, site investigation, ground treatment, and the reinforcement of the foundation and building, increased the total construction cost from 2%, at the design stage, to 4.8%.  相似文献   
104.
Early Estimation of Seismic Hazard for Strong Earthquakes in Taiwan   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
A shakemap system providing rapid estimates of strong ground shaking could be useful for emergency response providers in a damaging earthquake. A hybrid procedure, which combines site-dependent ground motion prediction models and the limited observations of the Real-Time Digital stream output system (RTD system operated by Central Weather Bureau, CWB), was set up to provide a high-resolution shakemap in a near-real-time manner after damaging earthquakes in Taiwan. One of the main factors that affect the result of ground motion prediction analysis is the existence of site effects. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the local site effects and their influence in the ground shaking and then establish an early estimation procedure of potential hazard for damaging earthquakes. Based on the attenuation law, the site effects of each TSMIP station are discussed in terms of a bias function that is site and intensity-level dependent function. The standard deviation of the site-dependent ground motion prediction model can be significantly reduced. The nonlinear behavior of ground soil is automatically taken into account in the intensity-level dependent bias function. Both the PGA and the spectral acceleration are studied in this study. Based on the RTD data, event correctors are calculated and applied to precisely estimate the shakemap of damaging earthquakes for emergency response.  相似文献   
105.
The procedure for geotechnical site investigation is well established but little attention is currently given to investigating the potential of vegetation to assist with ground stability. This paper describes how routine investigation procedures may be adapted to consider the effects of the vegetation. It is recommended that the major part of the vegetation investigation is carried out, at relatively low cost, during the preliminary (desk) study phase of the investigation when there is maximum flexibility to take account of findings in the proposed design and construction. The techniques available for investigation of the effects of vegetation are reviewed and references provided for further consideration. As for general geotechnical investigation work, it is important that a balance of effort is maintained in the vegetation investigation between (a) site characterisation (defining and identifying the existing and proposed vegetation to suit the site and ground conditions), (b) testing (in-situ and laboratory testing of the vegetation and root systems to provide design parameters) and (c) modelling (to analyse the vegetation effects).  相似文献   
106.
基于预测的边缘检测方法   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
提出了一种基于预测的、有一定自适应性的边缘检测方法。介绍了其原理和算法实现过程。通过计算两个相邻像素的灰度值的均值、均方差和梯度来预测下一个像素的灰度值,比较预测值和真实值来判断下一个像素是否是边界点。通过与现有同类算法的比较,证明了该算法的优越性。  相似文献   
107.
地震属性分析中水平切片的应用   总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6  
利用地震数据体中含有的丰富地质信息,可以有效地进行储层预测。层拉平水平切片地层学解释方法是先将地震剖面目的层段做层拉平处理,然后对切片顺地层层面追踪,勾绘出各种地层现象,并以地层学的观点加以解释。该方法在吉林探区扶新南部地区的应用中,对于识别河道的展布趋势取得了较好的效果,而且发现了多期叠置的扇型沉积体。另外,还可指导反演数据体的解释,做到对岩性体从定性到定量的描述。  相似文献   
108.
一种基于核学习的储集层渗透率预测新方法   总被引:2,自引:1,他引:2  
基于核学习的支持向量机,是一种采用结构风险最小化原则代替传统经验风险最小化原则的新型统计学习方法,具有完备的理论基础。这里提出了核学习技术在储集层非均质特性描述中渗透率参数预测的新用途。在复杂地层中,基于支持向量机的智能和自适应模式识别能力而建立了常规测井多参数信息输入的渗透率预测模型,然后对实际油田储集层渗透率进行了预测。与常规线性回归模型预测结果相对比,所提出的方法更易于使用,很少受不确定因素的影响,并具有较强的信息整合能力以及更高的预测准确性和可信度。  相似文献   
109.
现阶段地表油气化探技术难题与发展对策   总被引:2,自引:1,他引:2  
姚俊梅 《物探与化探》2005,29(6):477-480,486
虽然地表油气化探方法技术已取得显著的应用效果, 但是由于成功率计算标准不同及方法技术本身的缺陷, 导致人们对方法的认同度较低。当前, 地表油气化探技术的发展, 一方面要以可靠的实验依据、严谨的数理推导及理论模型应对来自方法技术本身的挑战, 另一方面也要利用其快速、廉价和直接的优势, 加强与地质、遥感、非震物探等方法综合应用。  相似文献   
110.
低频泥石流特征及防治 --以四川汶川县茶园沟为例   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
低频泥石流指30a以上发生1次的泥石流。尽管发生频率很低,但由于自身的特征及人们认识上的原因,其造l戒的人员伤亡和财产损失却居各类泥石流之首。对低频泥石流的研究在预防和减轻泥石流灾害方面有着重要意义。文章以2003年8月9日发生在四川汶川县茶园沟的泥石流为蒯,采用形态调查法和称重法等方法确定了流量、流速及重度。分析了其物质来源及形成的自然和人为原因,探讨了低频泥石流的特征。针对低频泥石流的低频性、破坏性和隐蔽性特点,同时考虑到低频泥石流沟的防治受保护对象的重要程度及资金投入等因素的限制,提出了进行泥石流危险性分区、搞好小流域水土深持、普及泥石流防灾减灾知识及加强监测和预警预报等措施,这对减轻低频泥石流区的灾害有一定的借鉴意义。  相似文献   
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