地震立体网络多因复成学说与DZW333预测模式及其应用     

韩东银  魏英祖 《国际地震动态》2006,(11):15-28

综合目前各地震成因假说而提出了地震立体网络多因复成学说,该学说包括两个基本点:地震时空分布具有立体网络性;地震是显、隐性立体网络力能结构上的一个纽结。显性网络力能主要是以应力形式作用的力能,主要来源于地球自身的运转、地壳整体收缩和地幔活动因素,表现为局部性挤压和拉伸,结果往往形成断裂、断裂带、系或其他地球物理薄弱地带。隐性网络力能主要是以连续性(区域)场和瞬间冲击、扰动形式作用的力能,主要来源于太阳、月亮及太阳系各行星因素以及宇宙膨胀复原力能、宇宙高能粒子流或慧星与地球相遇引发的流星雨,表现为区域性引拉和斥推,以及瞬间冲击力、干扰力。隐性网络力对蕴震体物质和能量进行“加载”或“卸载”,结果是广泛沟通蕴震体内部及与外部的联系、调节控制蕴震体振动方式和运动方式及其能量积累和释放、促进或诱发蕴震体发震。显、隐性网络力能叠加于蕴震体,当蕴震体自由振动被叠加振动剧烈加强即蕴震体发生共振时,引起蕴震体加速运动而处于临界态,出现降维、减熵的有序特征,在临界态蕴震体受瞬间冲击或扰动,或者与环境出现解耦,而出现突变、混沌、发生地震。基于地震立体网络多因复成学说认识提出了DZW333预测模式,预测模式包括地震成因物理模型、典型地震发生机制和地震三级预测程序3部分主要内容。DZW即地震网络学说,333即由3类显性物质单元组成,即发震地壳体、球内地幔活动体、球外天体;由3部分力能因素组成,即地壳体自动力能、地幔热压体浮沉力能、星际引斥扰动力能;有3级预测程序,即时空网络预测、形态特征预测、精确信息预测。前两级预测也属于以研究对象中的共性为基础的统计预测,应确定概率值。后一级的信息预测则是以研究对象中的特性为基础的确定性预测,不涉及概率。以唐山大地震为例作了解析。  相似文献   

从大洋中脊反思大陆漂移说——兼论地球膨裂说     

白卉  闫玉英  沈文杰 《吉林地质》2007,26(2):71-74

本文通过讨论地幔对流的可能性以及大洋中脊的运动方式,证明了大陆漂移说对大陆漂移的源动力的解释仍存在漏洞,并提出大陆漂移源动力与地球膨裂的关系。对大陆漂移说具有补充性。  相似文献   

编制地壳垂直运动速率等值线图的有限元法   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

李家权  张勤 《大地测量与地球动力学》1998,(3)

根据地壳垂直运动研究中的均衡理论,建立描述地壳垂直运动速率空间分布的数学模型,并提出应用有限元法拟合地壳垂直运动速率面的理论和方法。通过计算验证,说明有限元法可实现对地壳垂直运动速率面的精确逼近,是编制地壳垂直运动速率等值图的有效方法。  相似文献   

新四面体理论与磁极倒转     

王战 《地球科学与环境学报》1990,(2)

本文以最新修正了的新四面体理论模型来解释地球磁极倒转现象及其规律性。文章简要回顾了依附于收缩说的地球四面体理论的兴衰,接着简述了应归属于脉动说范畴的新四面体理论研究的最新进展——地球多级驻波(式)脉动演化模型。新模型可概括为:地球的形态在演化过程中呈“准球体→负准四面体→准球体→正准四面体→准球体→…”的驻波脉动;在呈每种形体的大阶段中,又包含着次级、更次级的驻波脉动。然后论述了地磁极性倒转的规律性(即多变→固定[正向]→多变→固定[反向] →多变→…)以及新模型对其所做的解释(即固定正向和固定反向阶段分别为负和正准四面体阶段,多变阶段为准球体阶段)。  相似文献   

基于EEMD的黄河中上游夏季降水预报方法的研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

王文  任冉  李耀辉 《气象科学》2014,34(3):261-266

传统的统计方法难以很好的对气候系统这一集非线性、非平稳性为一身的多层次系统进行处理。因此集层次化处理和平稳化处理的集合正交经验模态分解技术(EEMD)的提出,为解决上述问题提供了有效的途径。本文选取黄河中上游24个气象观测站的逐月降水资料,结合组合预报和集合预报思路,基于EEMD建立了统计预报模型。其中对降水序列中的高频部分进行了二次平稳化处理,实现对2008—2013年6—8月的降水预报,并用预报评分检测预报效果。结果表明:EEMD模型对黄河中上游夏季降水有着较强的预报能力,在该区域与气候模式和传统的统计方法相比具有更高的精度和更好的应用前景。  相似文献   

Stationary Wave Activity Associated with the East Asian Winter Monsoon Pathway          下载免费PDF全文

WANG Lin 《大气和海洋科学快报》2014,(1)

The pathway of the East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM) that usually leads to the out-of-phase pattern of surface air temperature between northern and southern East Asia is an important feature in the variability of the EAWM besides its strength.Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-year(ERA40) reanalysis dataset,this study investigates the pathway-related stationary wave activity to explore the mechanism of the interannual variations in the EAWM pathway.It reveals that when the southern pathway of the EAWM is strong,the phase of the climatological stationary wave tends to be shifted westward significantly in both the horizontal and vertical directions by an anomalous wavenumber 2 pattern at mid-latitudes,whereas the changes are relatively small in the subtropics.The horizontal changes in the stationary wave phase facilitate a north-south-oriented East Asian trough in the middle troposphere that eventually produces the strong southern pathway of the EAWM.The vertical changes in the stationary wave,in contrast,feature a westward-tilted phase line with height over the North Pacific,indicating enhanced upward propagation of waves into the stratosphere.This result suggests that the phase of stationary waves at mid-latitudes dominate the interannual variations in the EAWM pathway.Moreover,it supports our previous interpretation of the possible role of the North Pacific sea surface temperature(SST) in the EAWM pathway variability.It also implies that the excitation of anomalous mid-latitude stationary waves may be the key in the response of the EAWM pathway to the North Pacific SST.  相似文献   

海山区浮游生态学研究   总被引：10，自引：7，他引：3  

张武昌  于莹  李超伦  李学刚  肖天 《海洋与湖沼》2014,45(5):973-978

本文综述了海山浮游生态学研究的现状。海山是大洋中常见的地形单元,在有的海山附近鱼类和底栖生物的生物量比周围大洋中要多,针对这些鱼类和底栖生物的饵料来源提出了三种假说,第一种假说认为海山区特殊的物理环境导致初级生产力较高(经典假说),第二种假说认为海山区的饵料不是本地生产的,地形和流场使得外来的浮游生物在海山区富集或通量加大(外来营养补充假说),第三种假说认为海山上部的颗粒有机物营养较高,是鱼类和底栖生物的营养来源之一(颗粒有机物补充假说)。对海山浮游生态学的研究基本围绕这几个假说进行。目前只在9座海山进行了浮游生态学研究,这些研究表明单个假说并不能解释海山附近鱼类生物量较大的现象,海山鱼类和底栖生物的营养来源可能有很多,这些假说阐述的机制并不互相矛盾,海山生物之间的营养关系也比原来想象的复杂得多。已有研究都是针对其中某个假说进行验证研究,建议我国即将进行的海山浮游生态学研究针对三种假说进行海上调查,以提供完备的数据支持。  相似文献   

带丁坝型半封闭矩形海湾中M_2分潮潮波和潮流特性分析     

钱学生  陈永平  张长宽 《海洋学报》2014,36(9):37-44

将黄渤海海域概化为矩形海湾,山东半岛概化为垂直于海岸的巨型丁坝,形成一个带丁坝型半封闭矩形海湾。利用DELFT3D-FLOW计算模块在上述海湾中进行了M2分潮数值模拟,对其无潮点和辐射状潮流场的特性进行了分析。研究发现:考虑科氏力影响和巨型丁坝反射作用,坝前形成了明显的无潮点,但在等水深条件下并未形成辐射状潮流场,而叠加上倾斜海底地形后其得以形成;无潮点和辐射状潮流场顶端位置受水深影响明显,随着平均水深的增大,无潮点将向湾口和湾中轴线方向偏移,而辐射状潮流场顶端则向湾口方向偏移。研究结果有助于加深对带丁坝型半封闭矩形海湾中驻潮波系统形成机制和动力特性的理解和认识。  相似文献   

Going green or going away: Environmental regulation,economic geography and firms’ strategies in China’s pollution-intensive industries     

《Geoforum》2014

The high-growth, resource- and pollution-intensive industrialization model that China has pursued has caused severe environmental pollution and deterioration, particularly in a number of clusters in the coastal regions of East and Southeast China, where the Reform and Opening-up policies first started. The lack of uptake of environmental norms/values, deficit of regulatory enforcement of environmental policies, and insufficient institutional capacity have been compounding factors. As environmental standards were raised by China’s central government, the enforcement of environmental regulation has been compromised more in inland China than in coastal regions, due to China’s “decentralized governance structure” and regional disparity in terms of both economic development and environmental pollution. This paper therefore argues that rising environmental regulations, as well as firm characteristics, regional hub effect and political environment, have all been particularly important in forcing China’s pollution-intensive enterprises to restructure their production, through innovation, upgrading, geographical relocation, outsourcing and plant closure, especially in China’s coastal regions. It contributes to recent studies by developing a heuristic analytical framework that aims to be sensitive to the impacts of environmental regulation, political environment and regional hub effect over firm restructuring, but which does so by stressing these impacts are simultaneously inflected by the nature and attributes of firms. The empirical analysis suggests a roughly inverted “U”-shaped relationship between firm relocation tendency and firm size (or firm capability), resulting from complex interactions between political environment, regional hub effect and environmental regulation.  相似文献   

Earth System Science: Conception and Misconception——To the Third Conference on Earth System Science,Shanghai     

Wang Pinxian 《地球科学进展》2014,29(11):1277-1279

Earth system science should not be understood as an all embracing term that combines various disciplines studying the planet Earth. Rather, it is a new approach to consider interaction between its various subsystems, and seeks to integrate various research fields to understand the Earth as a system. Earth system science has developed from global changes studies, then extended into the deep geological past and now is facing a new challenge connecting the surface processes with those in the Earth’s interior.  相似文献