Uncertainty in quantitative analyses of topographic change: error propagation and the role of thresholding     

Scott W. Anderson 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(5):1015-1033

Topographic surveys inevitably contain error, introducing uncertainty into estimates of volumetric or mean change based on the differencing of repeated surveys. In the geomorphic community, uncertainty has often been framed as a problem of separating out real change from apparent change due purely to error, and addressed by removing measured change considered indistinguishable from random noise from analyses (thresholding). Thresholding is important when quantifying gross changes (i.e. total erosion or total deposition), which are systematically biased by random errors in stable parts of a landscape. However, net change estimates are not substantially influenced by those same random errors, and the use of thresholds results in inherently biased, and potentially misleading, estimates of net change and uncertainty. More generally, thresholding is unrelated to the important process of propagating uncertainty in order to place uncertainty bounds around final estimates. Error propagation methods for uncorrelated, correlated, and systematic errors are presented. Those equations demonstrate that uncertainties in modern net change analyses, as well as in gross change analyses using reasonable thresholds, are likely to be dominated by low-magnitude but highly correlated or systematic errors, even after careful attempts to reduce those errors. In contrast, random errors with little to no correlation largely cancel to negligible levels when averaged or summed. Propagated uncertainty is then typically insensitive to the precision of individual measurements, and is instead defined by the relative mean error (accuracy) over the area of interest. Given that real-world mean elevation changes in many landscape settings are often similar in magnitude to potential mean errors in repeat topographic analyses, reducing highly correlated or systematic errors will be central to obtaining accurate change estimates, while placing uncertainty bounds around those results provides essential context for their interpretation. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.  相似文献   

长江中下游平原升金湖流域硝酸盐来源解析及其不确定性     

崔玉环  王杰  郝泷  董斌  高祥 《湖泊科学》2021,33(2):474-482

考虑流域地理特征的空间分异,以升金湖流域人口/农业集约区大渡口(DDK)与森林子流域唐田河(TTH)为研究区,利用贝叶斯同位素混合模型分别解析这2个子流域硝酸盐来源的贡献率,并分析其不确定性.研究表明:(1)地下水中,DDK、TTH硝酸盐均主要来源于粪便/污水,贡献率可达65%以上,粪便/污水通过土壤下渗导致地下水硝酸盐富集.(2)地表水中,DDK硝酸盐主要来源于化学肥料,贡献率约为56%;而TTH主要来源于土壤,贡献率为44%;化肥和粪便/污水在DDK的贡献率要高于TTH.(3)无论是地表水还是地下水,贡献率大的硝酸盐来源,其不确定性较大,这与流域土地利用方式、生活污染源以及土壤理化特性等因素的空间差异有关.  相似文献   

自动气象站数据采集器温度通道校准修正方法与不确定度评定     

武向娟  张红英  王少辉 《气象科技》2014,42(2):208-212

自动气象站数据采集器温度通道的采集处理性能直接影响温度测量数据准确性,利用最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM:Least Squares Support Vector Machine)算法对一款区域站数据采集器温度通道校准数据系统误差进行拟合建模。基于该模型对校准结果进行修正,并对校准修正后温度通道的测量结果进行不确定度评估。经校准修正后,数据采集器温度通道测量误差均小于0.05℃,测量结果的不确定度为0.06℃,远小于修正前测量误差与不确定度,修正效果显著。该方法同样适用于其他型号的数据采集器,为自动站观测数据质量控制提供有效参考。  相似文献   

PTB220型压力传感器检定结果不确定度评估   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李昕娣  罗怀洁 《气象科技》2014,42(6):983-985

测量不确定度是表明测量结果可信程度的参数。为了保证气压传感器检定结果的准确可靠,依据JJG(气象)001-2011《自动气象站气压传感器检定规程》及JJF 1059.1-2012《测量不确定度评定与表示》的要求,使用省级压力标准器745,以VAISALA的PTB220型压力传感器为研究对象,通过建立被测量的数学模型,分析并列出了对测量结果有明显影响的不确定度来源,并定量评定了各标准不确定度分量,通过实验分析及验证得出其检定结果的扩展不确定度为0.2hPa,对其他类型压力传感器的检定结果的不确定度评定具有指导意义和参考价值。  相似文献   

离子色谱法测定生活饮用水中溴酸盐的不确定度评定          下载免费PDF全文

李清彩  陈娟  毛秀丽  赵庆令 《山东国土资源》2018,34(12)

采用离子色谱法对生活饮用水样品中的溴酸盐进行测定,并对测量结果进行不确定度评定。剖析了影响测量不确定度的主要因素,对储备标准溶液、稀释标准溶液、拟合标准曲线、重复性测量、仪器稳定性等影响不确定度的因素进行评定,并计算出扩展不确定度,使结果的表达更加客观,为实验室质量控制提供参考依据。  相似文献   

菱镁矿、蛇纹岩、碲金矿化学成分标准物质研制          下载免费PDF全文

洪飞  赵伟  刘耀华  吕振生  王卿  姜云  张文娟  张会堂 《山东国土资源》2018,34(5)

当前我国尚无菱镁矿、蛇纹岩、高品位碲金矿化学成分标准物质,国外相应标准样品存在定值元素少,且主成分含量不成系列,不能满足地质行业对菱镁矿、蛇纹岩、碲金矿标准物质的迫切需求。该文研制了菱镁矿、蛇纹岩、碲金矿化学成分标准物质共12个,将采自典型矿区的样品按照常规球磨方式粉碎混匀,采用电感耦合等离子体发射光谱法(ICP-AES)和电感耦合等离子体质谱法(ICP-MS)进行均匀性和稳定性检验,选择11家有资质的实验室,采取经典分析方法与现代仪器分析方法相结合的方式,选用2种以上不同原理的准确度高的可靠方法对该标准物质联合定值,依照JJF 1343—2012和一级标准物质技术规范,12个化学成分标准物质给出了30项主、微量元素的认定值和不确定度。其中,菱镁矿Mg O的含量范围为43.64%~81.26%,蛇纹岩Mg O的含量范围为23.73%~43.09%,高品位碲金矿Au的含量范围为19.6×10~(-6)~32.1×10~(-6)、Te的含量范围为51×10~(-6)~83×10~(-6),基本涵盖我国菱镁矿、蛇纹岩、高品位碲金矿的矿物类型,能够满足菱镁矿、蛇纹岩、碲金矿勘查、评价和开发的需求。  相似文献   

Challenges in constraining the P–T conditions of mafic granulites: An example from the northern Trans‐North China Orogen          下载免费PDF全文

Guangyu Huang  Michael Brown  Jinghui Guo  Philip Piccoli  Dingding Zhang 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2018,36(6):739-768

Some mafic granulites in the Sanggan area of the northern Trans‐North China Orogen (TNCO) have a relatively simple mineralogy with low energy grain shapes that are compatible with an assumption of equilibrium, but the rock‐forming minerals show variations in composition that create challenges for thermobarometry. The mafic granulites, which occur as apparently disrupted dyke‐like bodies in tonalite–trondhjemite–granodiorite gneisses, are divided into two types based on petrography and chemical composition. Type 1 mafic granulites are fine‐ to medium‐grained with an equilibrated texture and an assemblage of plagioclase+clinopyroxene+garnet+magnetite+ilmenite and sometimes minor hornblende±orthopyroxene. Type 2 mafic granulites are coarse‐grained and hornblende bearing with a peak assemblage of garnet+clinopyroxene+plagioclase+hornblende and variably developed coronae and symplectites of plagioclase+hornblende+orthopyroxene partially replacing porphyroblastic garnet±clinopyroxene. SIMS U–Pb dating of metamorphic zircon from two type 1 mafic granulites yields metamorphic ages of c. 1.84 and 1.83 Ga, consistent with published ages of the type 2 mafic granulites. Based on phase equilibrium modelling, we use the common overlap of P–T fields defined by the mineral assemblage limits, and the mole proportion and composition isopleths of different minerals in each sample to quantify the metamorphic conditions. For type 1 granulites, overlap of the mineral proportion and composition fields for each of three samples yields similar P–T conditions of 710–880°C at 0.57–0.79 GPa, 820–850°C at 0.59–0.63 GPa and 800–860°C at 0.59–0.68 GPa. For the type 2 granulites, overlaying the peak assemblage fields for three samples yields common P–T conditions of 870–890°C at 1.1–1.2 GPa. For the retrograde assemblage, overlap of the mineral proportion and composition fields for each sample yields similar P–T conditions of 820–840°C at 0.85–0.88 GPa, 860–880°C at 0.83–0.86 GPa and 880–930°C at 0.89–0.95 GPa. The P–T conditions appear distinct between the two types of mafic granulite, with the mineralogically simple type 1 mafic granulites recording the lowest pressures. However, there are significant uncertainties associated with these results. For the granulites, there are uncertainties related to the determination of modes and composition of the equilibration volume, particularly estimation of O and H₂O contents, and in the phase equilibrium modelling there are uncertainties that propagate through the calculation of mole proportions and mineral compositions. The compound uncertainties on pressure and temperature for high‐T granulites are large and the results of our study show that it may be unwise to rely on P–T conditions determined from the simple intersection of calculated mineral composition isopleths alone. Since the samples in this study are from a limited area—a few hundred square metres—we infer that they record a single P–T path involving both decompression and cooling. However, there is no evidence of the high‐P granulite facies event at 1.93–1.90 Ga that is recorded elsewhere in the TNCO, which suggests that the precursor basic dykes were emplaced late during the assembly of the North China Craton.  相似文献   

Travel impedance agreement among online road network data providers     

Eric M. Delmelle  Derek M. Marsh  C. Dony  Paul L. Delamater 《International journal of geographical information science》2019,33(6):1251-1269

ABSTRACT

Online mapping providers offer unprecedented access to spatial data and analytical tools; however, the number of analytical queries that can be requested is usually limited. As such, Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) services offer a viable alternative, provided that the quality of the underlying spatialtheir data is adequate. In this paper, we evaluate the agreement in travel impedance between estimates from MapQuest Open, which embraces OpenStreetMap (OSM) data–a is based on VGI datasetfrom OpenStreetMap (OSM), and estimates from two other popular commercial providers, namely Google Maps? and ArcGIS? Online. Our framework is articulated around three components, which simulates potentialcalculates shortest routes, estimates their travel impedance using a routing service Application Program Interface (API), and extracts the average number of contributors for each route. We develop an experimental setup with a simulated dataset for the state of North Carolina. Our results suggest a strong correlation of travel impedance among all three road network providers. and that travel impedanceThe agreement is the greatest in areas with a denser road network and the smallest for routes of shorter distances. Most importantly, tTravel estimates from MapQuest Open are nearly identical to both commercial providers when the average number of OSM contributors along the route is larger. The latter finding contributes to a growing body of literature on Linus’s law, recognizing that a larger group of contributors holds the potential to validate and correct inherent errors to the source dataset.  相似文献   

A FORM-based approach for probabilistic analysis in geotechnics: Application to a reinforced concrete drainage culvert     

Jie Zhang  Zhi Zheng  Yongchang Cai  Ning Li  Dongmei Zhang 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2019,43(12):2090-2105

As numerical models are increasingly used as a design tool in geotechnical engineering, it is highly desirable if geotechnical reliability analysis can be conducted based on numeral models. Currently, the practical use of geotechnical reliability analysis-based numerical models is still quite limited. In this study, an easy to access method is derived to conduct geotechnical reliability analysis based on numerical models. To facilitate its application, a procedure is outlined to implement the suggested method such that geotechnical reliability analysis can be automated using existing geotechnical numerical packages. The procedure is illustrated in detail with an example, and the source codes provided can be easily adapted to analyze other similar problems. The method described in this paper is used to study the reliability of a deteriorating reinforced concrete drainage culvert in Shanghai, China. The suggested method provides a convenient means for reliability analysis of complex geotechnical problems.  相似文献   

Space-time prisms on a sphere with applications to long-distance movement     

Bart Kuijpers  Georgios Technitis 《International journal of geographical information science》2020,34(10):1980-2003

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