考虑有雨无雨辨识的多源降水融合方法          下载免费PDF全文

李伶杰  王银堂  唐国强  高轩  王磊之  胡庆芳 《水科学进展》2022,33(5):780-793

多源降水融合是精准估计降水时空分布的重要途径,多聚焦降水量或降水强度的误差订正,对短历时降水雨区辨识的重视不足。提出考虑有雨无雨辨识的多源降水融合框架,耦合地理加权逻辑回归与地理加权回归模型,构建兼顾雨区辨识及雨量估计的降水融合方法,并应用于汉江流域MSWEP V2.1与地面站网观测日降水融合。结果表明：所提方法成功再现有雨无雨空间格局并刻画了降水中心,整体强化了MSWEP V2.1对地面降水的表征能力,降低误报率和误报降水量的幅度超过了60%,提高临界成功指数和Kling-Gupta效率系数达40%以上;较降水空间插值数据,削减误报降水量并提升Kling-Gupta效率系数高于10%;另外,较参考数据,降水融合改善强降水事件(雨强≥50 mm/d)分辨精度的增益不低于60%。所提方法有效改善了降水估计效果,为多源降水融合提供了新思路。  相似文献   

地震死亡人数评估的投影寻踪回归建模研究     

于晓虹  叶晶  洪赢政  楼文高 《华北地震科学》2022,(4):19-27

基于中国1990—2011年68次地震历史资料的5个评价指标数据和地震死亡人数,采用五重交叉验证法,建立基于SMART算法的投影寻踪回归（S-PPR）模型,模型预测误差小于等于0人、1人、2人、10人的样本占比分别为41.2%、61.8%、75%和92.6%,8个测试样本预测误差少于2人的占比62.5%,表明模型具有较高的预测精度。在5个评价指标中,地震震级对地震死亡人数的影响最显著,其次是人口密度,然后是地震发生时间、震中烈度,ΔL的影响较小。针对本例数据,不采用交叉验证法,在满足建立BPNN模型最基本要求的情况下,在多次训练的基础上可以“挑选”出“误差很小”、“精度很高”的模型,但这种挑选出来的模型是没有泛化能力和实用价值的。与采用交叉验证法建立的MLR、BPNN模型相比,S-PPR模型具有更高的数据拟合能力、泛化能力和稳健性,拓展了地震死亡人数评估的新方法和技术。  相似文献   

气象要素对巴里坤水平摆倾斜观测的影响     

张录  周丹  陈鲁刚 《地震地磁观测与研究》2022,(6):107-115

通过对比、相关性和回归分析,探讨了气温、气压和降水对巴里坤水平摆倾斜的影响,进而定量剔除了倾斜观测中的年变信息。结果显示：(1)倾斜观测受气温的影响最大,且气温对EW分量的影响明显大于NS分量;(2)降水会造成倾斜观测数据短期内出现波动变化,且具有延后效应,NS分量受降水影响的程度大于EW分量;(3)气温、气压参与拟合的回归方程,能较好地消除倾斜观测年变信息,凸显震前异常趋势变化。  相似文献   

粒子群优化广义回归神经网络与HHT样本熵结合的地震辨识研究     

庞聪  丁炜  程诚  吴涛  江勇  马武刚  廖成旺 《地球物理学进展》2022,(4):1457-1463

天然地震与人工爆破信号具有许多相似的特性,为实现地震类型的准确辨识,提出一种基于粒子群优化广义回归神经网络和HHT样本熵的地震类型辨识新方法．该方法先通过经验模态分解（EMD）将初始信号分解成6个本征模态函数（IMF）及1个残余向量,对前三个IMF进行Hilbert变换得到瞬时频率和瞬时能量,进而提取出样本熵并构造神经网络训练集与测试集;利用粒子群算法和训练集优化广义回归神经网络的光滑因子参数值,建立PSO-GRNN分类模型．将该模型结果与BPNN模型、GRNN模型、PNN模型及RBFNN模型等神经网络模型进行性能对照,得到该模型单次识别的准确率、MAE、MAPE、RMSE R2及MSE分别为95%、0.1604、0.1204、0.2381、0.7123、0.0567,绝大多数性能评价指标优于其他4种神经网络模型．该研究建立的PSO-GRNN模型性能较稳健,在100次循环随机试验中辨识效果仍然较突出,计算得到的上述评价指标均值为97.42、0.04、0.04、0.12、0.89、0.02,其对应的标准差为3.53、0.05、0.04、0.08、0.11、0.02,将PSO-GRNN模型...  相似文献   

基于多元线性回归分析的页岩气有利区评价新方法 ——以上扬子地区五峰组—龙马溪组海相页岩为例          下载免费PDF全文

周业鑫  赵安坤  余谦  张娣  张茜  雷子慧 《沉积与特提斯地质》2021,41(3):387-397

本文以四川盆地及其周缘五峰组—龙马溪组页岩气评价为例,总结了页岩气有利区优选的储层参数、保存参数和压力系数等参数,量化了各关键参数平面分布,运用多元线性回归分析方法计算了参数权重,通过多参数加权叠加公式建立了多元线性回归模型:有利区=-0.317+0.75×埋深+0.285×TOC+0.148×RO+0.093×孔隙度...  相似文献   

贝类净化技术研究现状与展望     

邱天龙  陈文超  祁剑飞  刘金虎  董逸  孙建明 《海洋科学》2021,45(3):134-142

随着养殖水域环境问题日益凸显,贝类食品安全问题越来越受到重视,贝类在进入流通环节前进行净化将成为不可缺少的处理环节.本文从贝类净化工艺类型、净化用水处理技术,以及贝类净化对风味的影响等方面对当前国内外研究进展进行了总结梳理,并提出下一步贝类净化应重点解决的问题,为深入开展贝类净化相关研究提供参考.  相似文献   

Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models: An Empirical Validation of ISWRidge Relationships     

Cheng-Wu CHEN  Hsien-Chueh Peter YANG  Chen-Yuan CHEN  Alex Kung-Hsiung CHANG  Tsung-Hao CHEN   《中国海洋工程》2008,22(1):43-56

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p 〈0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to cheek the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height （X1 ） and potential energy （X2 ） significantly impact （p 〈 0. 0001 ） the amplitude-based refleeted rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all 〉 0.05 （0.2839, 0.3438, respectively）. That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height （ X1 ） and potential energy （X2） can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model. Investigation of 6 predictive powers （ R2, Max-rescaled R^2, Sorners＇ D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively） indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.  相似文献   

Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models： An Empirical Validation of ISW-Ridge Relationships   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Hsien-Chueh Peter YANG  Alex Kung-Hsiung CHANG  Tsung-Hao CHEN 《中国海洋工程》2008,22(1)

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p<0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to check the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) significantly impact (p<0.0001) the amplitude-based reflected rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all >0.05 (0.2839, 0.3438, respectively). That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model.Investigation of 6 predictive powers (R2, Max-rescaled R2, Somers'D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively) indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.  相似文献   

五措并举 科学防御 全面提升地质灾害防治工作水平     

潘圣明 《浙江国土资源》2008,(4):14-16

浙江特殊的自然地理环境,以及近些年异常的气候变化。加上强烈的人类工程活动对地壳表层的扰动,导致我省地质灾害频发。据2001年至2006年统计,全省共发生滑坡、崩塌、泥石流地质灾害989处,导致192人伤亡（其中死亡145人）,直接经济损失2亿多元。当前,有效防治地质灾害。不仅成为全省各级政府肩负的重要职责,而且成为落实科学发展、构建和谐社会的重要内容。因此,探索地质灾害防治规律。努力做到科学防灾,切实提高防灾工作效果,就显得十分重要和紧迫。总结我省近些年地质灾害防治工作经验,着力查灾、努力减灾、合力防灾、大力消灾、全力救灾。“查、减、防、消、救”五措并举,科学防御,是全面提升地质灾害防御水平的重要保证。  相似文献   

注重创新提升实效杭州市国土资源局突出"四性"抓普法     

曾志勇  林亮 《浙江国土资源》2008,(5):50-51

近年来。杭州市国土资源局以加快构建保障科学发展新机制为目标。深入开展“五五普法”。着力强化普法内容的针对性、普法形式的多样性、普法载体的新颖性和普法组织的联动性。切实有效地推动了“法律六进”和依法治理工作。  相似文献