1953～2017年黄河源区气温变化的多尺度特征     

冯晓莉  刘彩红  林鹏飞  白文蓉  余迪 《气候与环境研究》2020,25(3):333-344

基于黄河源区8个站点的年平均气温序列,利用集合经验模态分解（Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition,EEMD）方法,揭示了以玛多站为代表的黄河源区1953~2017年气温演变的多时间尺度特征,探讨不同时间尺度上的周期振荡对气温变化总体特征的影响程度,分析了黄河源区不同时间尺度的气温变化与海温指数,尤其是与北大西洋多年代际振荡（Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,AMO）间的关系。结果表明:（1）1953年以来黄河源区玛多站年平均气温以0.31 ℃/10 a的变化率表现为明显的增暖趋势,20世纪80年代后期开始转暖,尤其是进入20世纪90年代后期变暖更加明显。（2）1953~2017年,黄河源区年平均气温呈现3 a、6 a、11 a、25 a、64 a及65 a以上时间尺度的准周期变化,其中以准3 a和65 a以上时间尺度的振荡最显著,准3 a的年际振荡在21世纪以前振幅较大,而进入21世纪后年际振荡振幅减弱,65 a以上时间尺度的年代际振荡振幅明显加大。（3）1998年气候显著变暖以前,以准3 a周期为代表的年际振荡在气温演变过程中占据主导地位,1998年气候显著变暖以后,65 a以上时间尺度周期振荡的贡献率增加近5倍,与准3 a周期振荡的贡献相当。（4）气温与Nino3.4指数和PDO（Pacific Decadal Oscillation）指数的同期相关均不显著,但当气温领先PDO指数22 a时正相关最大且显著,不同于PDO指数,气温原始序列及其3个年代际尺度分量滞后AMO指数3~7 a或二者同期时相关性最高,这就意味着AMO对黄河源区气温具有显著影响。（5）AMO的正暖位相对应着包括中国的整个东亚地区偏暖,黄河源区只是受影响区域的一部分,20世纪60年代至90年代初期AMO的负冷位相期、20世纪90年代中后期至今AMO的正暖位相与黄河源区气温距平序列的负距平、正距平相对应,气温在65 a以上时间尺度的变化与AMO指数相关性更高,可见,AMO是影响黄河源区气温变化的一个重要的气候振荡,这种影响主要表现在年代际时间尺度上。  相似文献   

地理学的逻辑方法和基本法则   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

楚义芳 《地理学报》1988,(3)

从科学哲学和科学学的角度考察地理学思想史,可以发现:地理学之所以徘徊于科学性不强的“经验科学”的水平,关键在于其科学的理论化和系统化不够。本文对地理学的逻辑方法及其公理系统作了初步探讨,并尝试就此推演地理定理,估计地理学的未来发展趋势。  相似文献   

Ab initio study of the high-pressure behavior of CaSiO3 perovskite     

Daniel Y. Jung  Artem R. Oganov 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2005,32(2):146-153

Using density functional simulations, within the generalized gradient approximation and projector-augmented wave method, we study structures and energetics of CaSiO₃ perovskite in the pressure range of the Earths lower mantle (0–150 GPa). At zero Kelvin temperature the cubic CaSiO₃ perovskite structure is unstable in the whole pressure range, at low pressures the orthorhombic (Pnam) structure is preferred. At 14.2 GPa there is a phase transition to the tetragonal (I4/mcm) phase. The CaIrO₃-type structure is not stable for CaSiO₃. Our results also rule out the possibility of decomposition into oxides.

Daniel Y. JungEmail: Phone: +41-44-6323744Fax: +41-44-6321133

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500hPa环流变化与山东春季降水异常   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

高留喜  安兴琴  刘秦玉  黎清才  高慧君 《气象科学》2004,24(4):440-447

应用SVD技术,诊断分析了北半球500hPa高度场与山东春季降水的关系。结果表明：山东春季降水与北半球500hPa高度场关系密切,山东春季降水与东亚上空500hPa高度场具有很好的同步联系。前期(冬季)日本东北部500hPa高度场是影响山东南部春季降水的关键区,具有预测意义。500hPa高度距平场东高西低型是造成山东春季降水的主要大气环流形势,西高东低型是造成山东少雨的主要大气环流形势。  相似文献   

Flood pattern and weather determine Populus leaf litter breakdown and nitrogen dynamics on a cold desert floodplain     

D.C. Andersen  S.M. Nelson 《Journal of Arid Environments》2006,64(4):626-650

Patterns and processes involved in litter breakdown on desert river floodplains are not well understood. We used leafpacks containing Fremont cottonwood (Populus deltoides subsp. wislizenii) leaf litter to investigate the roles of weather and microclimate, flooding (immersion), and macroinvertebrates on litter organic matter (OM) and nitrogen (N) loss on a floodplain in a cool-temperate semi-arid environment (Yampa River, northwestern Colorado, USA). Total mass of N in fresh autumn litter fell by 20% over winter and spring, but in most cases there was no further N loss prior to termination of the study after 653 days exposure, including up to 20 days immersion during the spring flood pulse. Final OM mass was 10–40% of initial values. The pattern of OM and N losses suggested most N would be released outside the flood season, when retention within the floodplain would be likely. The exclusion of macroinvertebrates modestly reduced the rate of OM loss (by about 10%) but had no effect on N dynamics over nine months. Immersion in floodwater accelerated OM loss, but modest variation in litter quality did not affect the breakdown rate. These results are consistent with the concept that decomposition on desert floodplains progresses much as does litter processing in desert uplands, but with periodic bouts of processing typical of aquatic environments when litter is inundated by floodwaters. The strong dependence of litter breakdown rate on weather and floods means that climate change or river flow management can easily disrupt floodplain nutrient dynamics.  相似文献   

花园口站年最大洪峰流量时间序列的HHT分析     

任健  史红玲 《地理与地理信息科学》2012,28(3):83-86,100

Hilbert-Huang变换能够定量描述非线性、非平稳复杂时间序列的时频特性,较传统分析方法更具优势。通过对时间序列进行EMD分解,得到变化过程的内在模态函数和趋势项函数,而后对各内在模态函数进行Hilbert-Huang变换,从而揭示出时间序列的多时间尺度特征。以黄河花园口站1952-2009年的年最大洪峰流量时间序列为例,对其进行多时间尺度分析,得到不同波动周期的振荡分量及趋势分量,具体分析了各分量的变化特征。结果表明,花园口年最大洪峰流量变化过程中存在准3.2a、准6.4a、准11.8a和准31.0a周期的波动,其中准3.2a和准6.4a的周期波动是引起原序列波动的主要原因,近60年来花园口年最大洪峰流量变化呈递减趋势,由此揭示了年最大洪峰流量变化过程的多时间尺度特征。在此基础上,探讨了各波动分量变化的影响因素,其变化与大气低频振荡、ENSO、太阳活动及气候变迁等因素有关。  相似文献   

Development Processes of the Tropical Pacific Meridional Mode     

WU Shu  WU Lixin  LIU Qinyu  Shang-Ping XIE 《大气科学进展》2010,27(1):95-99

Mechanisms for the spatio-temporal development of the Tropical Pacific Meridional Mode(TPMM) are investigated using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model and observations.In both observations and the model,this meridional mode displays decadal variations and is most pronounced in spring and early summer.The model simulation suggests that once SST anomalies in the subtropical northeastern Pacific are initiated,say by northeasterly trade wind variability,perturbations evolve into a merdional dipole in 2-3 months.A...  相似文献   

EOF analysis of a time series with application to tsunami detection     

Elena Tolkova 《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2010

Fragments of deep-ocean tidal records up to 3 days long belong to the same functional sub-space, regardless of the record’s origin. The tidal sub-space basis can be derived via Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of a tidal record of a single buoy. Decomposition of a tsunami buoy record in a functional space of tidal EOFs presents an efficient tool for a short-term tidal forecast, as well as for an accurate tidal removal needed for early tsunami detection and quantification [Tolkova, E., 2009. Principal component analysis of tsunami buoy record: tide prediction and removal. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans 46 (1–4), 62–82] EOF analysis of a time series, however, assumes that the time series represents a stationary (in the weak sense) process. In the present work, a modification of one-dimensional EOF formalism not restricted to stationary processes is introduced. With this modification, the EOF-based de-tiding/forecasting technique can be interpreted in terms of a signal passage through a filter bank, which is unique for the sub-space spanned by the EOFs. This interpretation helps to identify a harmonic content of a continuous process whose fragments are decomposed by given EOFs. In particular, seven EOFs and a constant function are proved to decompose 1-day-long tidal fragments at any location. Filtering by projection into a reduced sub-space of the above EOFs is capable of isolating a tsunami wave within a few millimeter accuracy from the first minutes of the tsunami appearance on a tsunami buoy record, and is reliable in the presence of data gaps. EOFs with ∼$\sim$3-day duration (a reciprocal of either tidal band width) allow short-term (24.75 h in advance) tidal predictions using the inherent structure of a tidal signal. The predictions do not require any a priori knowledge of tidal processes at a particular location, except for recent 49.5 h long recordings at the location.  相似文献   

纬向平均的风向改变指数与季节转换     

朱敏  张铭  徐建霞 《热带气象学报》2010,26(1):86-92

通过定义一个能客观定量描述大气环流四维时空变化的风向改变指数WI,用以研究大气环流的时空演变规律和季节转换。在对纬向平均的WI做了经验正交函数(EOF)分析后,得到了其前四个模态。第一模态揭示的是全年平均的WI空间分布的基态。第二模态反映的是WI场的偏差中呈现准调和变化的部分,热带、副热带、温寒带季风区在该模态中均有明显体现。第三模态反映的是WI场的偏差中呈现非调和变化的部分,该部分揭示了因南北半球海陆分布的差异和因大气、海洋流体的非线性效应,其所造成的从春到秋与从秋到春的季节变化的不对称性以及平流层的二月突变现象。第四模态反映的是全球各层盛行风反向区域从春到夏的北进和从夏到秋南撤的现象。  相似文献   

基于SVD和修正Z指数的汛期旱涝预测及其应用   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

周后福  方茸  张建军  钱玉萍 《气候与环境研究》2010,15(1):64-72

利用奇异值分解(SVD)方法、500hPa高度场、太平洋海温场和降水资料,建立起汛期降水的预测方程;经过适应本地化的Z指数修正,将预测结果转化为旱涝等级;将SVD技术与修正的Z指数结合起来,实现旱涝的气候预测;将研究成果推广应用到气象、防汛抗旱部门。结果表明:1)影响江淮分水岭地区汛期降水的因子有5个,分别是太平洋地区2个,印度半岛附近2个,欧洲地区1个;2)理论上的Z指数等级不符合江淮分水岭地区的实际状况,因而必须对Z指数进行修正。经过修正后的各个旱涝等级的划分概率较为合理,说明Z指数的5级指标是可靠的;3)利用5个影响因子可以建立汛期降水量与影响因子之间的预报方程,在共计8年的旱涝滚动预测和实况检验中,等级相符的有7年,只有2003年的预测试验相差一个等级,5级的预测准确率达到87.5%;4)经过气象、防汛抗旱部门2008年的应用,旱涝等级的预测意见和实际基本吻合,说明预测技术的应用情况良好。  相似文献