Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland     

Erik Rüttener  Juan José Egozcue  Dieter Mayer-Rosa  Stephan Mueller 《Natural Hazards》1996,14(2-3):165-178

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.  相似文献   

Generalized ‘dependencies’ and parameter variance     

Heinrich Eichhorn 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1996,64(3):273-275

The autodependence, (a special case of the — now quite obsolete — dependences, which had been introduced for very specialized astrometric purposes) is proportional to the parameter variance which is the expectation of the variance of the systematic error of a function evaluated with estimated parameters.  相似文献   

Estimation of statistical parameters for censored lognormal hydraulic conductivity measurements     

Xian-Huan Wen 《Mathematical Geology》1994,26(6):717-731

Field tests of hydraulic conductivity (e.g., injection test, pumping test, etc.) in low permeability formations are subject to censoring due to the detection limit of the instruments used. An iterative method of estimating the mean and variance of hydraulic conductivity data with a presumed log-normal distribution function is presented. This method accounts for the data that are actually below the lower detection limit (called truncated data) and thus gives distribution parameters that are more representative for the underlying distribution. The proposed method is then tested on two simulated normally distributed random datasets having different variances. The results show that the means and variances estimated by the proposed method are very accurate. Finally, the method is used to estimate the mean and variance of hydraulic conductivity data from single hole water injection tests in a fractured geological formation.  相似文献   

人工神经网络在白云岩类型识别中的应用     

蔡煜东  姚林声 《岩石矿物学杂志》1994,13(1):51-54

利用地球化学数据,运用人工神经网络方法对美国密苏里州东南Ｂｏｎｎｅｔｅｒｒｅ组（寒武纪）滨海相的白云岩进行了分类、识别,判别率达１００％,结果表明,该方法性能良好,可望成为岩石分类、判别的有效手段。  相似文献   

Interpolation by regularized spline with tension: I. Theory and implementation   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Helena Mitáová  Lubos Mitá 《Mathematical Geology》1993,25(6):641-655

Bivariate and trivariate functions for interpolation from scattered data are derived. They are constructed by explicit minimization of a general smoothness functional, and they include a tension parameter that controls the character of the interpolation function (e.g., for bivariate case the surface can be tuned from a membrane to a thin steel plate), Tension can be applied also in a chosen direction, for modeling of phenomena with a simple type of anisotropy. The functions have regular derivatives of all orders everywhere. This makes them suitable for analysis of surface geometry and for direct application in models where derivatives are necessary. For processing of large datasets (thousands of data points), which are now common in geosciences, a segmentation algorithm with a flexible size of overlapping neighborhood is presented. Simple examples demonstrating flexibility and accuracy of the functions are presented.On leave from the Department of Physical Geography and Cartography, Comenius University, Mlynská dolina, Bratislava, Czechoslovakia.On leave from the Institute of Physics, Dúbravská cesta 9, Bratislava, Czechoslovakia.  相似文献   

基于消息通知机制的国省数据共享系统的设计与实现     

顾文静  戴晴  张媛媛  王鹏 《气象科技》2021,49(6):860-868

为解决卫星广播传输缺陷及省级用户获取临省实时观测资料和实况分析产品等迫切的业务需求，设计并实现了基于消息通知机制的国省数据共享系统。系统基于RabbitMQ的消息机制进行业务和数据资源的整合及集成，采用多层体系架构，满足基于地面宽带的数据快速有序下载和卫星广播数据补调等国省数据共享需求，支持大容量多种数据的高速传输，支持HTTP、FTP、SFTP等多种数据传输协议。系统已经上线提供服务，实现智能网格、多源融合实况分析等25种气象资料的国省数据共享，月平均共享数据量达6.3 TB，且建立全流程监视，有效保障数据共享的时效性。  相似文献   

区域地下水信息管理系统研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

吕武  张国生 《测绘学院学报》1995,(1)

本文通过《河南省地下水动态信息管理系统》的建立,讨论了区域地下水信息管理系统的设计目标,数据结构和软件实现,着重介绍了系统的软件设计特点,最后指出了这种管理系统在水文地质部门中具有广泛的应用前景。  相似文献   

A realistic model for point-sources imaged on array detectors: The model and initial results     

W. J. Merline  Steve B. Howell 《Experimental Astronomy》1995,6(1-2):163-210

We have constructed a computer model for simulation of point-sources imaged on two-dimensional detectors. An attempt has been made to ensure that the model produces data that mimic real data taken with 2-D detectors. To be realistic, such simulations must include randomly generated noise of the appropriate type from all sources (e.g. source, background, and detector). The model is generic and accepts input values for parameters such as pixel size, read noise, source magnitude, and sky brightness. Point-source profiles are then generated with noise and detector characteristics added via our model. The synthetic data are output as simple integrations (onedimensional), as radial slices (two-dimensional), and as intensity-contour plots (three-dimensional). Each noise source can be turned on or off so that they can be studied separately as well as in combination to yield a realistic view of an image. This paper presents the basic properties of the model and some examples of how it can be used to simulate the effects of changing image position, image scale, signal strength, noise characteristics, and data reduction procedures.Use of the model has allowed us to confirm and quantify three points: 1) The use of traditionalsize apertures for photometry of faint point-sources adds substantial noise to the measurement which can significantly degrade the quality of the observation; 2) The number of pixels used to estimate the background is important and must be considered when estimating errors; and 3) The CCD equation normally used by the astronomical community consistently overestimates the signal-to-noise obtainable by a measurement while a revised equation, discussed here, provides a better estimator.  相似文献   

冰川目录数据库     

刘宗香  王良纬 《冰川冻土》1990,12(2):167-174

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A combined study of macroseismic data and focal mechanisms applied to the West-Bohemian earthquake,Czechoslovakia     

J. Zahradník  M. Antonini  G. Grünthal  J. Janský  D. Procházková  E. Schmedes  A. Špičak  J. Zedník 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1990,133(1):53-71

The main shock of the West-Bohemian earthquake swarm, Czechoslovakia, (magnitudem=4.5, depthh=10 km) exhibits an irregular areal distribution of macroseismic intensities 6° to 7° MSK-64. Four lobes of the 6° isoseismal are found and the maximum observed intensity is located at a distance of 8 km from the instrumentally determined epicentre. This distribution can be explained by the energy flux of the directS wave generated by a circular source, the hypocentral location and focal mechanism of which are taken from independent instrumental studies. The theoretical intensity, which is assumed to be logarithmically proportional to the integrated squared ground-motion velocity (i.e.,I=const+log v ² (t)dt), fits the observed intensity with an overall root-mean-square error less than 0.5°. It is important that the present intensity data can also be equally well explained by the isotropic source. The fit was attained by means of a horizontally layered model though large fault zones and an extended sedimentary basin suggest a significant lateral heterogeneity of the epicentral region. The results encourage a broader application of the simple modelling technique used.  相似文献