A Bootstrap Approach to Computing Uncertainty in Inferred Oil and Gas Reserve Estimates     

Attanasi  Emil D.  Coburn  Timothy C. 《Natural Resources Research》2004,13(1):45-52

This study develops confidence intervals for estimates of inferred oil and gas reserves based on bootstrap procedures. Inferred reserves are expected additions to proved reserves in previously discovered conventional oil and gas fields. Estimates of inferred reserves accounted for 65% of the total oil and 34% of the total gas assessed in the U.S. Geological Survey's 1995 National Assessment of oil and gas in US onshore and State offshore areas. When the same computational methods used in the 1995 Assessment are applied to more recent data, the 80-year (from 1997 through 2076) inferred reserve estimates for pre-1997 discoveries located in the lower 48 onshore and state offshore areas amounted to a total of 39.7 billion barrels of oil (BBO) and 293 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of gas. The 90% confidence interval about the oil estimate derived from the bootstrap approach is 22.4 BBO to 69.5 BBO. The comparable 90% confidence interval for the inferred gas reserve estimate is 217 TCF to 413 TCF. The 90% confidence interval describes the uncertainty that should be attached to the estimates. It also provides a basis for developing scenarios to explore the implications for energy policy analysis.  相似文献   

利用油藏地质地球化学特征综合划分含油气系统   总被引：10，自引：2，他引：10  

窦立荣  程顶胜  张志伟 《地质科学》2002,37(4):495-501

含油气系统的划分和范围的确定关系到油气勘探的方向和有利区带的选择,油源对比是含油气系统划分的关键.在缺乏成熟烃源岩样品的情况下,须结合油气藏的地质特征和演化历史,才能科学地划分含油气系统.据中非Muglad盆地Nugara坳陷同-构造上两个油田的地质分析和原油地球化学分析,把坳陷划分为两个独立的含油气系统,不同油田属于不同的系统.这一思路可为今后复杂构造演化区和裂谷盆地含油气系统研究提供借鉴.  相似文献   

中国东部逆断层及油气   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

杨克绳 《海相油气地质》2002,7(2):48-53

传统上把我国的沉积盆地划分为东部拉张,中部过渡,西部挤压,这种观点曾经束缚了人们的地震解释思路,在中国东部的剖面上出现逆断层现象而不能予以确定。事实上,中国东部总体上以拉张构造为主,普遍发育正断层,但在勘探中也确实发现了逆断层,且对油气聚集具有重要的控制作用。从成因观点分析,这些逆断层主要可分为构造挤压型及重力滑动型两大类。构造挤压型逆断层按地质时代又可分为晚第三纪、白垩纪、古生代末等三个时期,它们分别对应于中国东部大地构造演化的三个“断陷—坳陷”旋回,断陷对应于构造拉张期,坳陷对应干构造挤压期,逆断层主要发育于坳陷发育时期。着重对两类逆断层的形成机制、演化规律及油气赋存状态进行了论述剖析。中国东部含油气盆地的构造运动不是一张到顶的;晚第三纪的构造挤压逆冲断层与重力滑动逆冲断层在形成机理上是有区别的;逆同生断层在晚期干上覆地层中形成的浅层构造,应是次生油气藏的良好场所。  相似文献   

华东石油局油田开发“十五”发展战略及2015年远景展望     

汪深 《江苏地质》2002,26(1):54-56

随着第十个五年计划的到来，华东石油局的油田开发工作也进入了新时代，面临着我国加入世界贸易组织（WTO）的新形势，油田开发工作面临着新挑战，在新形势下和新挑战面前，华东石油局根据自身拥有的资源状况科学合理地制定了油田开发“十五”发展战略。  相似文献   

Reconstruction of the diagenesis of the fluvial-lacustrinedeltaic sandstones and its influence on the reservoir quality evolution     

Jinglan Luo  S. Morad  Xiaoli Zhang  Shike Yan  Fuli Wu  Yuhong Li  Junmin Xue 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2002,45(7):616-634

The reservoir quality of Jurassic and Triassic fluvial and lacustrine-deltaic sandstones of the Yanchang Oil Field in the Ordos Basin is strongly influenced by the burial history and facies-related diagenetic events. The fluvial sandstones have a higher average porosity (14.8%) and a higher permeability (12.7 × 10⁻³ μm²) than those of the deltaic sandstones (9.8% and 5.8 ×10⁻³) μm², respectively). The burial compaction, which resulted in 15% and 20% porosity loss for Jurassic and Triassic sandstones, respectively, is the main factor causing the loss of porosity both for the Jurassic and Triassic sandstones. Among the cements, carbonate is the main one that reduced the reservoir quality of the sandstones. The organic acidic fluid derived from organic matter in the source rocks, the inorganic fluid from rock-water reaction during the late diagenesis, and meteoric waters during the epidiagenesis resulted in the formation of dissolution porosity, which is the main reason for the enhancement of reservoir-quality.  相似文献   

震电效应研究在资源勘探中的应用前景   总被引：5，自引：7，他引：5  

刘洪 《地球物理学进展》2002,17(2):211-217

石油，天然气和水的储层主要为含流体多孔介质。由于油气和水资源勘探的日益增长的需要，与含流体多孔介质密切相关的震电效应研究在我国得到了迅速发展。针对声电测井探测渗透率，地震波传播的损耗及其控制，天然电磁波与电磁场的产生机制及其利用等问题，已对第一类震电效应（震阻效应或I效应），第二类震电效应（流动电势效应或E效应）以及充放电（激发极化）效应，开展了理论和实验研究，取得了相当大的进展。随着油气勘探二次创业的到来，将为震电效应在资源勘探中的应用带来巨大的机遇和挑战。  相似文献   

油田放射性异常成因研究   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

王平  李舟波 《地球物理学报》1995,38(4):528-538

为探索地表放射性异常与地下油气藏的关系，在４种类型的９个油气藏上收集了３１０口井的测井数据，同时在５个油气藏上进行了地面放射性测量．上述资料证实，异常从油层到地表具有延续性，在同一油层上方放射性异常随测点与油层距离加大而减弱，复合式油气藏各油层异常独立存在，不同类型油藏异常总体形态相似，异常幅值与油藏圈闭条件有关．这些为油气物质垂向运移及放射性异常深部形成机制提供了直接证据．在此基础上，综合前人研究成果，提出了油田放射性异常物质来源主要是生油岩的观点和油气盆地内流体微运移循环的设想，建立了油田放射性异常综合成因模式．  相似文献   

中国西北地区岩石层瑞利波三维速度结构与沉积盆地   总被引：20，自引：6，他引：20       下载免费PDF全文

滕吉文  胡家富  张中杰  王爱武  孙小丽  杨占寿  杨顶辉  万志超 《地球物理学报》1995,38(6):737-749

研究了中、新生界沉积层所覆盖的我国西北各沉积盆地：准噶尔盆地、塔里木盆地、柴达木盆地，以及一系列中小型盆地和其邻近地域的深部岩石层三维速度结构，探讨其和造山带与油气田的关系．使用了适配滤波频时分析方法，分析了我国数字台网的中长周期瑞利面波资料，计算得到２５７条混合路径的面波群速度频散．利用改进的分格随机反演理论与方法，从混合路径中提取了１００条频散突出路径的４°×４°网格单元的纯路径频散，并反演研究区的三维Ｓ波速度结构．频散的周期从１．９５ｓ到１５１．７ｓ，浅部分辨率可达１ｋｍ，得出了该区深达２００ｋｍ范围内三维瑞利波群速度的分布与特征．所得结果表明：塔里木盆地、哈密－吐鲁番盆地、伊宁盆地以及藏北地区的羌塘盆地具有较好的油气前景．我国西北邻国接壤地带，也均为良好的油气盆地潜在地带．  相似文献   

Feinauflösung von UV-Spektren durch Differentiation 1. und 2. Ordnung im Rahmen der Kohlenwasserstoffanalyse     

H. Hellmann 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》1995,23(3):121-130

Fine Resolution of UV Spectra by Differentiation of 1st and 2nd Order in Hydrocarbon Analysis Basic UV spectra (0th order) in unpolar solvents such as cyclohexane are useful — though with some reservations — in characterizing mineral oils occuring in pure form and aromatic fractions in environmental samples separated by chromatographic techniques. The common standard raffinates, biogenic hydrocarbons or other mixes of hydrocarbons including polycyclic aromatics can be approximately identified. The spectra of 1st and 2nd order improve the reliability of the results and permit above all to detect polycondensated aromatics even in traces. Finally, partial spectra of 1st and 2nd order in the wavelength ranges 205…240, 220…260, and 260…320 nm allow because of their very specific structures a simple and fast practically definite assignment to the above-mentioned groups of aromatics. Analogously, substituted aromatics in detergents and other technical products have already been identified. The method is suitable as a fast preliminary test, at least.  相似文献   

Application of the modified Arps-Roberts discovery proces model to the 1995 U.S. National Oil and Gas Assessment     

L. J. Drew  J. H. Schuenemeyer  R. F. Mast 《Natural Resources Research》1995,4(3):242-252

ARDS (version 4.01), a modified version of the Arps-Roberts discovery process model, was used to forecast the remaining oil and gas resources in more than 50 provinces, super-exploration plays, and individual plays in the onshore and offshore United States for the 1995 National Oil and Gas Assessment. The size distribution of oil and gas fields was estimated for the underlying distribution of fields; the size distribution for the remaining fields was calculated to be the difference between this distribution and that of discovered fields. The guidelines that govern the 1995 National Assessment require the underlying size distribution of fields to be estimated by using only data from two standard commercial data files (the NRG Associates field file and the Petroleum Information Inc. well file). However, a variety of situations required further modification of the discovery process modeling system; for example, multiple exploration plays that occurred nearly simultaneously and also displaced each other in time, and the phenomenon of field growth introduced a large bias in the forecasts produced by the discovery process models for some provinces.  相似文献