Trend estimation and univariate forecast of the sunspot numbers: Development and comparison of ARMA, ARIMA and Autoregressive Neural Network models   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Surajit Chattopadhyay  Deepak Jhajharia  Goutami Chattopadhyay 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2011,343(7):433-442

In the present study, a prominent 11-year cycle, supported by the pattern of the autocorrelation function and measures of Euclidean distances, in the mean annual sunspot number time series has been observed by considering the sunspot series for the duration of 1749 to 2007. The trend in the yearly sunspot series, which is found to be non-normally distributed, is examined through the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test. A statistically significant increasing trend is observed in the sunspot series in annual duration. The results indicate that the performance of the autoregressive neural network-based model is much better than the autoregressive moving average and autoregressive integrated moving average-based models for the univariate forecast of the yearly mean sunspot numbers.  相似文献   

A Study of the Hinode Observations of the Bipolar Moving Magnetic Features in Sunspot Penumbrae     

Ke-Jun Li  Yuan-Deng Shen  Li-Heng Yang  Yun-Chun Jiang 《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2010

By using the monochromatic images and magnetograms obtained with the satellite Hinode, 35 pairs of bipolar moving magnetic features (MMFs) in sunspot penumbrae are studied in the following three aspects: the morphological characteristics, velocities of motion and responses in low atmospheric layers. Then the following conclusions are drawn. (1) The bipolar MMFs appear in pairs of positive and negative polarities, are located in the midst of the approximately vertical magnetic fields in spot penumbrae, and move toward the outer boundaries of penumbrae. This indirectly justifies that the bipolar MMFs originate in the horizontal magnetic fields of penumbrae. In the time intervals of 2-8 hours and at the same positions, there appear the bipolar MMFs with similar morphologial characteristics and velocities of motion. This povides an evidence which supports the model of magnetic lines in the shape of sea serpent. (2) In the process of motion of bipolar MMFs there may appear brightenings in the photospere and chromosphere, and this implies that the middle and low layers of solar atmosphere are heated by the bipolar MMFs. (3) The sites of occurrence of bipolar MMFs and the distribution of penumbral magnetic field agree with the structural characteristics of uncombed sunspot penumbrae.  相似文献   

四川盆地东部、西部年降水量的振荡与太阳活动的联系     

谭友邦  方之芳 《成都信息工程学院学报》1989,(4)

本文应用四川盆地23个站的年降水资料、太阳黑子相对数与西北太平洋副高强度指数资料,分析太阳黑子活动的异常与四川盆地降水的联系,认为:四川盆地东西部降水量呈振荡型、这种振荡型可能是太阳活动通过西北太平洋副高的作用而激发的、时间上有滞后一年以上的特性,即太阳黑子活动的强弱、引起西北太平洋副高强度的变化,进而影响四川降水的东西分布特征。反映为太阳黑子偏多年分,第二年的西北太平洋高压偏强、相应四川盆地降水呈西涝东旱型、反之亦然。  相似文献   

琼中地磁台以磁报震方法探索   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

胡久常 《华南地震》1994,14(3):61-65

通过对海南低纬度地区地磁场垂直分量的特殊变化与海南岛及其邻近地区地震活动的对比分析,并结合实用化攻关成果,总结出一套利用琼中地磁台垂直分量１１年变化周期、相关系数Ｒ值变化曲线和日变化“双低点”异常预报海南岛及其邻近地区地震活动的方法。  相似文献   

“拉马德雷”冷位相时期的全球强震和灾害   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

杨冬红  杨学祥 《地震工程学报》2006,28(1):95-96

“拉马德雷”是一种高空气压流，亦称太平洋十年涛动，分别以“暖位相”和“冷位相”两种形式交替在太平洋上空出现，每种现象持续20年至30年。近100多年来“拉马德雷”已出现了两个完整的周期（见表1）。当“拉马德雷”现象以“暖位相”形式出现时，北美大陆附近海面的水温就会异常升高，而北太平洋洋面温度却异常下降。与此同时太平洋高空气流由美洲和亚洲两大陆向太平洋中央移动；低空气流正好相反，使中太平洋海面升高。当“拉马德雷”以“冷位相”形式出现时，情况正好相反。中太平洋海面反复升降导致地壳跷跷板运动，引发强烈的地震活动。  相似文献   

使用人工神经网络进行我国大陆强震时间序列预测   总被引：6，自引：2，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

王炜  谢端  宋先月  赵利飞 《地震工程学报》2002,24(4):315-319

使用人工神经网络对中国大陆最大地震时间序列进行预测，预测次年的中国大陆最大地震震级，结果表明该方法具有较好的预报效果。还表明中国大陆强震活动除了与强震时间序列本身有关外，还与全球的强震活动，太阳黑子活动等有密切的非线性关系。  相似文献   

太阳黑子对厄尔尼诺、拉尼娜的影响   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：3  

赵佩章  陈健  赵文桐 《地球物理学进展》2001,16(3):85-90

本文分析了太阳黑子、日食、厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜现象之间的关系，指明了用太阳黑子和日食情况来预测厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜现象在时间上和强度上，都可有很高准确性，太阳黑子峰值年影响日食形成的厄尔尼诺加强，拉尼娜减弱，谷值年相反。  相似文献   

中国地区地磁异常静日（AQD）的初步分析          下载免费PDF全文

彭丰林  朱岗崑 《地球物理学报》1988,31(3):249-256

本文将G.M.Brown等人对离S_q电流体系焦点较远处台站的异常静日（AQD）的H分量分析,发展为对包括S_q电流体系焦点附近台站和Z、D分量在内的AQD分析。主要分析了中国五个地磁台D、H、Z三要素静日最大值和最小值出现时间的分布,及其季节变化和逐年变化规律。结果表明,D、Z也有和H类似的AQD现象,其出现的年频度,也有与太阳黑子数反相变化的趋势。在有三个多太阳周资料的佘山台,太阳极小年AQD(Z_max)出现的频度,和随后的太阳极大年的黑子数R呈近似线性的关系。最后,本文对今后我国开展变化磁场的分析研究提出了建议。  相似文献   

The 27-Day Signal in Sunspot Number Series and the Solar Dynamo     

Jean-Louis Le Mouël  Mikhail G. Shnirman  Elena M. Blanter 《Solar physics》2007,246(2):295-307

We analyze the Wolf number daily series WN (1849 to present) as well as two other related series characterizing solar activity. Our analysis consists in computing the amplitude of a given Fourier component in a sliding time window and examining its long-term evolution. We start with the well-known 27.03- and 27.6-day periods and observe strong decadal variations of this amplitude as well as a sharp increase of the average value starting around 1905. We then consider a packet of 31 lines with periods from 25.743 to 28.453 days, which is shown to be a better representation of the synodic solar rotation. We first examine the temporal evolution of individual lines, then the energy of the packet. The energy of the packet increases sharply at the beginning of the 20th century, leading by more than two decades the well-known increase of the Wolf number. The nonaxisymmetry of sunspots increases before the total increase of activity and may be considered as a precursor. We discuss briefly and tentatively this observation in terms of solar dynamo theory.  相似文献   

foF2月中值太阳循环变化及单站谱模型研究          下载免费PDF全文

徐彤  吴振森  吴健  黄朝军  冯健 《地球物理学报》2008,51(5)

利用我国9个电离层观测站第21和22太阳周大约20年的foF2月中值数据,分析太阳活动和地磁活动对电离层foF2的影响,结果显示白天和夏季夜间foF2和太阳黑子数R之间存在着明显非线性关系,并且随着纬度的降低逐渐增强.当回归分析加入地磁Ap指数时,多重回归模型与实测值误差进一步减小,说明同时考虑太阳活动和地磁活动的非线性影响能够更好地描述foF2的变化.基于foF2与太阳黑子数R及地磁指数Ap之间的非线性统计关系,利用Fourier级数建立9个单站谱模型,并与国际参考电离层IRI进行了比较,精度有一定提高.  相似文献