基于CMIP6强迫模拟分析人为气溶胶的气候效应(一)——介绍NUIST模式评估结果          下载免费PDF全文

史湘军  沈沛洁  朱寿鹏  吉璐莹  张海鹏  刘娇娇  陈伯民  李震坤 《大气科学学报》2020,43(3):506-515

为减少不同气候模式评估气溶胶气候效应的差异,第六次耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6,CMIP6)直接给定了人为气溶胶强迫数据。因此,有必要基于此强迫数据重新评估气溶胶气候效应。本研究首先将CMIP6给出的描述人为气溶胶强迫的模块引入南京信息工程大学(Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,NUIST)的地球系统模式(The NUIST Earth System Model,NESM)。之后,利用NESM模式评估地球辐射收支平衡对此人为气溶胶强迫的响应,并分析模式模拟结果的不确定性。评估给出的人为气溶胶有效辐射强迫为-0. 45(±0. 28) W·m~(-2)。其中,气溶胶直接辐射效应为-0. 34(±0. 01) W·m~(-2),与第二次气溶胶比较计划(The second phase of Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and M odels,Aero ComⅡ)的评估结果基本一致;气溶胶对云辐射强迫的影响(包括半直接效应和间接效应)为-0. 10(±0. 30) W·m~(-2),明显受到模式内部变率的干扰,具有较大的不确定性。  相似文献   

全球增暖1.5/2℃下中国区域极端降水的风险变化及其影响因子          下载免费PDF全文

朱连华  祝颖锜  姚壹壹  石晨  徐凡然  赵暐昊  江志红 《大气科学学报》2023,46(1):97-109

利用24个CMIP6全球气候模式的逐日降水模拟资料,基于广义极值分布(GEV)模型,研究了全球增暖1.5/2℃下我国20、50和100 a重现期极端降水的未来风险变化。可以发现,相对于历史时期(1995—2014年),全球升温1.5和2℃下极端降水发生概率风险空间分布相近,总体上呈现增加趋势,但额外增暖0.5℃将导致更高的风险。如50 a重现期极端降水,在增暖1.5/2℃下其重现期将分别变为17/14 a,极端降水将变得更加频繁。不同区域对气候变暖的响应存在区域差异,其中中国西部长江黄河中上游和青藏高原地区、中国东部长江黄河中下游及其以南地区,极端降水发生概率比达到3以上,局部更是达到5以上,为我国极端降水气候变化响应高敏感区域。进一步,基于概率分布函数从理论角度探讨了位置和尺度参数对发生概率风险的影响与贡献度量,并用于探讨极端降水气候平均态和变率变化对极端降水发生风险的影响,结果显示：位置和尺度参数的增量变化、风险变化率存在着显著的东西部差异,从而导致极端降水发生风险的影响因素存在差异。如中国西部尽管极端降水气候平均态和变率变化幅度不大,但因风险变化率较高,从而导致该区域的发生风险大...  相似文献   

Improvement of Soil Moisture Simulation in Eurasia by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model from CMIP5 to CMIP6     

Yinghan SANG  Hong-Li REN  Xueli SHI  Xiaofeng XU  Haishan CHEN 《大气科学进展》2021,38(2):237-252

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Future Changes in Extreme High Temperature over China at 1.5℃-5℃ Global Warming Based on CMIP6 Simulations   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Guwei ZHANG  Gang ZENG  Xiaoye YANG  Zhihong JIANG 《大气科学进展》2021,38(2):253-267

Extreme high temperature(EHT)events are among the most impact-related consequences related to climate change,especially for China,a nation with a large population that is vulnerable to the climate warming.Based on the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6),this study assesses future EHT changes across China at five specific global warming thresholds(1.5℃-5℃).The results indicate that global mean temperature will increase by 1.5℃/2℃ before 2030/2050 relative to pre-industrial levels(1861-1900)under three future scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5),and warming will occur faster under SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5.Under SSP5-8.5,global warming will eventually exceed 5℃ by 2100,while under SSP1-2.6,it will stabilize around 2℃ after 2050.In China,most of the areas where warming exceeds global average levels will be located in Tibet and northern China(Northwest China,North China and Northeast China),covering 50%-70%of the country.Furthermore,about 0.19-0.44 billion people(accounting for 16%-41%of the national population)will experience warming above the global average.Compared to present-day(1995-2014),the warmest day(TXx)will increase most notably in northern China,while the number of warm days(TX90p)and warm spell duration indicator(WSDI)will increase most profoundly in southern China.For example,relative to the present-day,TXx will increase by 1℃-5℃ in northern China,and TX90p(WSDI)will increase by 25-150(10-80)days in southern China at 1.5℃-5℃ global warming.Compared to 2℃-5℃,limiting global warming to 1.5℃ will help avoid about 36%-87%of the EHT increases in China.  相似文献   

Simulation and projection of climate change using CMIP6 Muti-models in the Belt and Road Region     

YanRan Lü  Tong Jiang  YanJun Wang  BuDa Su  JinLong Huang  Hui Tao 《寒旱区科学》2020,12(6):389-403

Climate condition over a region is mostly determined by the changes in precipitation, temperature and evaporation as the key climate variables. The countries belong to the Belt and Road region are subjected to face strong changes in future climate. In this paper, we used five global climate models from the latest Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to evaluate future climate changes under seven combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5) across the Belt and Road region. This study focuses on undertaking a climate change assessment in terms of future changes in precipitation, air temperature and actual evaporation for the three distinct periods as near-term period (2021-2040), mid-term period (2041-2060) and long-term period (2081-2100). To discern spatial structure, K?ppen-Geiger Climate Classification method has been used in this study. In relative terms, the results indicate an evidence of increasing tendency in all the studied variables, where significant changes are anticipated mostly in the long-term period. In addition to, though it is projected to increase under all the SSP-RCP scenarios, greater increases will be happened under higher emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0). For temperature, robust increases in annual mean temperature is found to be 5.2 °C under SSP3-7.0, and highest 7.0 °C under SSP5-8.5 scenario relative to present day. The northern part especially Cold and Polar region will be even more warmer (+6.1 °C) in the long-term (2081-2100) period under SSP5-8.5. Similarly, at the end of the twenty-first century, annual mean precipitation is inclined to increase largely with a rate of 2.1% and 2.8% per decade under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 respectively. Spatial distribution demonstrates that the largest precipitation increases are to be pronounced in the Polar and Arid regions. Precipitation is projected to increase with response to increasing warming most of the regions. Finally, the actual evaporation is projected to increase significantly with rate of 20.3% under SSP3-7.0 and greatest 27.0% for SSP5-8.5 by the end of the century. It is important to note that the changes in evaporation respond to global mean temperature rise consistently in terms of similar spatial pattern for all the scenarios where stronger increase found in the Cold and Polar regions. The increase in precipitation is overruled by enhanced evaporation over the region. However, this study reveals that the CMIP6 models can simulate temperature better than precipitation over the Belt and Road region. Findings of this study could be the reliable basis for initiating policies against further climate induced impacts in the regional scale.  相似文献   

Effects of pulsed nutrient inputs on phytoplankton assemblage structure and blooms in an enclosed coastal area   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

Sofie Spatharis  George Tsirtsis  Daniel B. Danielidis  Thang Do Chi  David Mouillot   《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2007,73(3-4):807-815

The response of phytoplankton assemblage structure to terrestrial nutrient inputs was examined for the Gulf of Kalloni in the Northern Aegean Sea, a productive semi-enclosed coastal marine ecosystem. The study was focused on a typical annual cycle, and emphasis was placed on the comparative analysis between blooms developing after significant nutrient inputs from the watershed, and naturally occurring blooms. Baseline information was collected on a monthly basis from a network of stations located in the oligotrophic open sea and the interior and more productive part of the embayment. Intensive sampling was also carried out along a gradient in the vicinity of a river which was the most important source of freshwater and nutrient input for the Gulf. Phytoplankton assemblage structure was analyzed from 188 samples using diversity indices (Shannon and Average Taxonomic Distinctness), multivariate plotting methods (NMDS), multivariate statistics (PERMANOVA), and canonical correspondence analysis (CCA). Three characteristic assemblages were recognized: (1) an autumn assemblage developed under nutrient depleted conditions, having low diversity due to the dominance of two small diatoms, (2) a winter bloom of the potentially toxic species Pseudo-nitzschia calliantha occurring immediately after a nutrient peak and characterized by very low diversity, and (3) a naturally occurring early summer bloom of centric diatoms with relatively high diversity. The results of the study support the view that moderate nutrient inputs may have a beneficial effect on the functioning of coastal ecosystems, stimulating the taxonomic diversity through the growth of different taxonomic groups and taxa. On the other hand, a sudden pulse of high nutrient concentrations may greatly affect the natural succession of organisms, have a negative effect on the diversity through the dominance of a single species, and can increase the possibility of a harmful algal bloom development.  相似文献   

基于GIS的南海台风风浪预报系统   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

尹毅  王静  毛庆文  齐义泉 《海洋通报》2008,27(6)

探索了以组件式 GIS 为平台集成风场与海浪数值模型的关键技术研究及其实现过程,成功构建了南海台风风浪预报系统.该系统实现了数值模型计算所有阶段,即模型前处理、模型计算、模型后处理以及模型计算结果与 GIS 的无缝集成,大大提高了模型应用的可操作性和决策效率.经半年以上时间的使用,取得了良好的运行效果.  相似文献   

Interactions between sediment chemistry and frenulate pogonophores (Annelida) in the north-east Atlantic     

P.R. Dando  A.J. Southward  E.C. Southward  P. Lamont  R. Harvey 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2008,55(8):966-996

The small frenulate pogonophores (Annelida: Pogonophora a.k.a. Siboglinidae) typically inhabit muddy sediments on the continental slope, although a few species occur near hydrothermal vents and cold seeps. We present data on the distribution and habitat characteristics of several species on the European continental shelf and slope from 48°N to 75°N and show how the animals interact with the chemistry of the sediments. The environments inhabited include: shallow (30 m), organic-rich, fjord sediments; slope sediments (1000–2200 m) and methane seeps at 330 m depth. All the species studied obtain nutrition from endosymbiotic bacteria. They take up reduced sulphur species, or in one case, methane, through the posterior parts of their tubes buried in the anoxic sediment. We conclude that most species undertake sulphide ‘mining’, a mechanism previously demonstrated in the bivalves Lucinoma borealis and Thyasira sarsi. These pogonophores participate in the sulphur cycle and effectively lower the sulphide content of the sediments. Our results show that the abundance of frenulate pogonophores increases with increasing sedimentation and with decreasing abundance of other benthos, particularly bioturbating organisms. The maximum sustainable carrying capacity of non-seep sediments for frenulate pogonophores is limited by the rate of sulphate reduction.  相似文献   

厚壳贻贝(Mytilus coruscus)足丝蛋白mcofp3和mcofp6的cDNA克隆及序列分析     

廖智  鲁涛  李楠楠  徐田军  王日昕  石戈 《海洋与湖沼》2010,41(5):739-747

通过设计特异性引物,采用PCR扩增的方法对厚壳贻贝足腺细胞cDNA文库进行筛选,共克隆得到14条厚壳贻贝mcofp3的cDNA序列和8条mcofp6的cDNA序列,并对其基因序列及推导的氨基酸序列进行了序列比对和变异位点初步分析。结果表明,14条mcofp3cDNA序列分属于厚壳贻贝mcofp3家族的两个亚家族,其成熟肽序列变异相对活跃;而8条mcofp6 cDNA序列并无明显的亚家族划分,序列相对保守。本次实验所获得的mcofp cDNA序列初步显示了厚壳贻贝足丝蛋白家族基因的分子多样性,为将来深入了解厚壳贻贝足丝蛋白的分子多样性机制以及在此基础上开发相关的新型生物黏附剂奠定了基础。  相似文献   

高分六号遥感卫星新增波段下的树种分类精度分析     

张沁雨  李哲  夏朝宗  陈健  彭道黎 《地球信息科学学报》2019,21(10):1619-1628

高分六号卫星具有覆盖广、多种分辨率、波段多的优势,能为遥感解译提供更丰富的信息。为探究高分六号卫星新增波段在森林树种识别上的应用,本文以覆盖根河市阿龙山林业局的一期高分六号宽幅影像为数据源,基于特征优化空间算法（Feature Space Optimization,FSO）和最大似然分类法,分别利用高分六号的前4个波段和所有波段（8波段）的光谱、纹理等特征进行了森林树种分类,并逐一添加新增波段特征确定了各波段的贡献率排名。结果表明：在加入了优选出的均匀性纹理、均值纹理和角二阶矩纹理3种纹理特征后,前4波段和8波段的分类精度比只基于光谱特征时的精度分别高出13.23%和24.63%;利用8波段信息比只利用前4波段在基于光谱特征上的精度高11.88%,在基于光谱+纹理特征上则高23.24%;基于8波段光谱+纹理特征的树种分类精度最高,达到68.74%,新增4波段的贡献率排名为B6>B5>B8>B7,说明新增红边波段对于本次树种分类试验的贡献率最高,能为北方树种识别提供有效帮助。  相似文献