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101.
基于GIS和SD方法的社会经济发展与生态环境响应动态模拟预测研究 总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9
在着重于空间现象分析处理的GIS与动态模拟的SD方法结合的模式下,动态模拟预测了不同社会经济发展策略对生态环境的影响,揭示了生态经济系统社会经济发展与生态环境相互影响关系,为区域可持续发展提供决策支持服务。 相似文献
102.
Land subsidence caused by groundwater exploitation in Suzhou City,China 总被引:10,自引:2,他引:10
Suzhou City, located at the lower reaches of the Yangtze River in southeastern Jiangsu Province, is one of the few cities
in China which suffer from severe ground settlement. A research project was carried out to investigate this problem. Geological
and hydrogeological studies show that there is a multi-layered aquifer system with three distinct, soft mud layers of marine
and lagoonal origins. An examination of historical records of groundwater extraction, water levels, and ground settlement
shows that the ground subsidence is associated with the continuously increasing groundwater extraction in the deep, confined
aquifer. It is believed that the consolidation of the soft mud layers, especially the third layer which is thick and close
to the main pumped aquifer, contributes to the ground settlement. A three-dimensional finite difference numerical model representing
the multi-layered aquifer system was developed to study the ground settlement in response to groundwater extraction. By calibrating
the model with both the measured groundwater level and ground settlement, the aquifer parameters were estimated. The model
outputs fit reasonably well with the observed results, which indicates that the numerical model can reproduce the dynamic
processes of both groundwater flow and soil consolidation. The hydraulic conductivity of the third mud layer near the center
of the ground settlement has been reduced by over 30% in the last 14 years. The gradual deterioration in the hydraulic conductivity
of the mud may have significant adverse effect on the sustainable groundwater resource of the deep confined aquifer, since
the recharge from the shallow aquifers through the mud layer is the only source of water to the deep aquifer. An analysis
of the spatial distributions of groundwater drawdown and ground settlement shows that the area with maximum drawdown is not
necessarily the area with maximum ground settlement due to the occurrence of the soft mud layer. A simple reallocation in
pumping rates on the basis of the spatial distribution of the thick mud layer could significantly reduce the ground settlement.
Electronic Publication 相似文献
103.
B. P. Harlamov 《Mathematical Geology》2003,35(4):431-449
Zones of increased concentration formed by a solvent flowing from a source are considered. A matehmatical model for forming such zones is proposed. It takes into account that such a zone is composed of a set of independent particles. Hence the distribution of a substance around the source can be explained by movement of an individual particle. In the model this movement is a continuous semi-Markov process with terminal stopping at some random point in space. Parameters of the process depend on the velocity field of the flow. Forward and backward partial differential equations for the distribution density of a random stopping point of the process are derived. The forward equation is investigated for the centrally symmetric case. Solutions of the equation demonstrate either a maximum or a local minimum at the source location. In the latter case a concentric ring around the source is formed. If different substances vary in their absorption rates, they can form separable concentration zones as a family of concentric rings. 相似文献
104.
Horie Kei Maki Norio Kohiyama Masayuki Lu Hengjian Tanaka Satoshi Hashitera Shin Shigekawa Kishie Hayashi Haruo 《Natural Hazards》2003,29(3):341-370
Rebuilding of victims' livelihoods was a crucial issue in the restoration process in the1995 Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster. Housing damage assessment influencedmost of the rebuilding of the livelihood in the long term, because the Victim Certificatesissued by the local governments based on the results of the Housing damage assessmentwas required to receive most of the individual assistance measures. In the process ofHousing damage assessment, many complex problems arose, leading to extensivework on the part of the disaster responders. Consequently, a considerable number ofvictims were dissatisfied with the assessment and applied for a resurvey. Due to a floodof requests for resurvey, disaster responders had to work on damage assessment, leavingrelief activities aside.In order to facilitate Housing damage assessment, this paper discusses thefollowing five points: (1) the processes and the problems of assessments performedin the Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster, (2) the changes in the nature of informationneeded by the victims, (3) the improvements over the present damage assessment, (4)the housing situation in Japan, and (5) the international situation on damage assessment.It is obvious from the results that a poor damage assessment system and the size ofthe disaster produced a very large work load. Differences in appreciation among theinvestigators also contributed to unfair assessments and led to the victims beingincreasingly dissatisfied by the survey results. Finally, a design concept for acomprehensive damage assessment system, which has been derived from theabove five points, is proposed for post-disaster management. 相似文献
105.
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107.
中尺度模式中各种湿物理过程的数值模拟 总被引:14,自引:1,他引:14
利用PSU/NCAR的MM5对1999年6月下旬发生在江淮流域的梅雨锋暴雨进行数值模拟试验,研究MM5中不同湿物理过程中对MM5模拟梅雨锋暴雨的影响。试验结果显示:中尺度模式MM5能一定程度再现一些观测的中尺度特征,对流参数化方案对网格格距的大小比较敏感;显式云物理方案考虑冰相后可明显改善模式对暴雨的模拟能力,尤其是采用Reisner包含霰的混合相双变参数谱方案的双重嵌套网格对降水量的模拟取得较好的效果。 相似文献
108.
柏传志 《南京气象学院学报》2003,26(2):281-284
在一致凸Banach(巴拿赫)空间中研究了渐近非扩张映射的带误差的Ishikawa迭代序列的收敛性。结果推广了原来的定理。 相似文献
109.
徐羹慧 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2003,26(5):1-3,8
目前,业务平台、预报制作系统技术已成为气象台天气预报的关键技术,也是我国与发达国家技术发展的主要差距之一。本文从科学技术论的角度,研究气象台预报制作系统发展的历史及其发展的阶段性,归纳了技术发展的基本特征,提出了预报制作系统技术跨越式发展的应对措施。 相似文献
110.