A ‘safety deposit’ mechanism for US climate policy     

《Climate Policy》2013,13(2):232-238

US policy makers are currently evaluating options to reduce domestic carbon dioxide emissions, and several economy-wide cap-and-trade proposals have been put forward in the 111th Congress. Despite mounting enthusiasm for cap-and-trade, advocates of this approach have had to defend such proposals against the criticisms that prices in the resulting carbon market will be unstable and that the implied costs of policy might exceed society's willingness to pay for the expected environmental benefits. Allowance borrowing has been proposed as one solution to both of these concerns, with firm-level borrowing intended to mitigate the impacts of transient cost shocks, and system-level borrowing intended to hedge against the risk of early technology bottlenecks. Each of these mechanisms, as proposed, relies upon prescribed constraints, such as interest payments or quantity limits, to protect against overuse. This article introduces a novel mechanism that offers qualitatively similar protection—a firm-level deposit on borrowed allowances that is refundable upon repayment of the emissions debt. However, the deposit mechanism is shown to be both more economically efficient and more effective in mitigating performance risk, when compared to the existing alternatives.  相似文献   

中国燃煤电厂碳捕集与生物质掺烧碳捕集改造的经济性     

袁家海  王耀  张为荣  张健 《气候变化研究进展》2022,18(6):764-776

碳捕集与封存（CCS）技术作为解决全球气候变化问题的重要手段之一,能够有效减少CO₂排放。中国作为碳排放大国,当前电力的主要来源仍是煤电,碳捕集（CC）改造在燃煤电厂中有很大的应用潜力。经济性对CC改造的部署至关重要。为此,本文计算了中国各省典型电厂CC改造前后的平准化度电成本,比较了不同省份的CO₂捕集成本与CO₂避免成本,分析了不同掺烧率下生物质掺烧结合碳捕集(bioenergy with carbon capture,BECC)改造的经济性。研究发现,CC改造会导致不同地区的燃煤电厂度电成本增加57.51%~93.38%。煤价较低的华北和西北地区（青海除外）CC改造经济性较好,BECC改造则更适合华中地区。建议在推进燃煤电厂CC和BECC改造时要充分考虑区域资源特点,完善碳市场建设,形成合理碳价以促进CC和BECC部署。  相似文献   

中国城乡家庭能源平等变化特征分析     

王强  周侃  林键 《地理学报》2022,77(2):457-473

能源转型是中国如期实现碳中和、碳达峰目标的必然路径,也是缩小城乡居民能源消费差距、实现能源平等的关键举措。基于2013年和2017年的家庭追踪调查数据,运用基尼系数、局部加权回归以及逐步回归等方法,在揭示中国城乡家庭能源平等的时空特征、能源转型效果基础上,定量评价影响地区间、城乡间家庭能源平等的驱动因素。结果表明：① 中国城乡家庭的能源消费水平总体呈明显不平等特征,但随着能源转型政策实施以及城乡融合进程加速,城乡家庭间能源不平等程度有所减小。② 对10609个城乡家庭样本、9类分区的比较显示,除长三角地区的家庭能源平等性较高外,其他地区均呈不同程度的非均衡性,尤其在云贵等西南地区的家庭能源不平等现象尤为突出。③ 家庭收入、家庭规模、城乡居住区位、气候条件以及现代化能源可获得性显著影响家庭能源支出,进而对区域间的家庭能源平等性造成影响,而当地的能源资源禀赋对家庭能源支出的影响并不显著。④ 尽管农村地区气态能源、电力资源普及有效推动了城乡家庭能源转型,但农村家庭需担负相较于城镇家庭居民更大的能源转型经济压力。  相似文献   

新区划图双参数调整对剪力墙结构土建成本的影响     

张波  陈学良  杨晓宁  邱利军  李宗超 《震灾防御技术》2021,16(2):339-345

考虑到《中国地震动参数区划图》（GB 18306—2015）（中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局等,2016）,提出了双参数调整原则,即对场地地震动峰值加速度和反应谱特征周期进行同时调整,以确定设计地震动反应谱,这势必会增加结构的土建成本。因此,基于Ⅱ类场地,对抗震设防烈度7度（0.15 g）的剪力墙结构在不同场地类别下的地震动参数进行推导。采用单一控制变量法,对某12层剪力墙结构按不同抗震设防烈度和不同场地类别进行设计,使其满足规范最低标准,计算相应的钢筋和混凝土材料用量;根据现时市场定额,比较分析单一地震动参数变化时的土建成本,研究结果可为工程实践提供一定参考。  相似文献   

The development of integrated terrestrial and marine pathways in the Argo-Saronic region,Greece     

J.M.L. Newhard  N.S. Levine  A.D. Phebus 《制图学和地理信息科学》2013,40(4):379-390

Least cost path applications can be a powerful tool for understanding connectivity across a landscape. A limitation to this method is its difficulty in integrating terrestrial, marine, and cultural factors – all of which would have been at play in the prehistoric Aegean. This study looks at a method of modeling pathways that integrates major factors (land, sea, and culture) that would be in play while considering medium- to long-distance travel in the Aegean. This test case explores the possible relationships between proposed routes for communication and identified coastal sites with parameters modeled in geographic information system that affect travel in cultural, marine, and terrestrial contexts. The methods presented have significance beyond the Late Bronze Age Aegean. The development of a methodology that incorporates marine, cultural, and terrestrial environments provides a mechanism by which specific hypotheses regarding complex communication routes may be addressed in regions of the world where there is an intensive interplay between terrestrial and marine geographies.  相似文献   

Characterizing errors in digital elevation models and estimating the financial costs of accuracy     

S. R. Januchowski  R. L. Pressey  J. VanDerWal  A. Edwards 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(9):1327-1347

Digital topographic models are the foundation of more advanced modeling applications and ultimately inform planning and decision making in many fields. Despite this, the error associated with these models and derived attributes is commonly overlooked. Little attention has been given in the scientific literature to the benefits gained from having less error in a model or to the corresponding cost associated with reducing model error by choosing one product over another. To address these gaps in knowledge we evaluated the error associated with five digital elevation models (DEMs) and derived attributes of slope and aspect relative to the same attributes derived from LiDAR data. We also estimated the acquisition and processing costs per square kilometer of the five test models and the LiDAR models. We used three measures to characterize model error: (1) root mean square error, (2) mean error (and standard deviation), and (3) area of significant elevation error. We applied these measures to DEM products that are used extensively across a range of applications for planning and managing natural resources. We depicted the relationship between model accuracy (the inverse of error) and cost in two ways. One was accuracy/cost ratio for each model. The other used separate data on accuracy and cost to better guide potential users in choosing between models or deciding on necessary expenditure on models. The main conclusion of our work was that accounting for error in DEMs can inform choice of models and the need for financial outlays.  相似文献   

遥感技术对输电线路路径成本优化的作用     

许琳  林荣 《中国勘察设计》2012,(12):101-103

路径方案的选定对输电线路的技术经济指标、施工和运行维护起着决定性作用。本文以全寿命周期理念为指导,通过对GPS、遥感技术在输电线路中的应用评价,选择一种能降低电网建设全寿命周期成本,提高输电系统的生产效率与管理水平的路径方案。  相似文献   

栅格成本距离计算的改进蚁群算法     

曲小康  芮小平  韩莹  李祥琛  伍彬 《地球信息科学学报》2016,18(8):1052-1059

栅格数据模型是地理信息科学领域的主要数据模型,成本距离分析是其重要的应用方向之一。但当栅格数据量较大时,传统的Dijkstra求解效率较低,因此本文提出了一种用改进蚁群算法来求解栅格成本距离的方法。首先,构建了适合人工智能算法的栅格数据模型及编码方法;然后,在此基础上初始化蚁群,采用状态概率选择机制计算相邻栅格单元之间距离成本,以及距离成本路径方向选择,同时利用改进的信息素更新机制加强蚁群之间信息交流,加快算法收敛速度;最后,引入了遗传算法的选择、交叉和变异等算子优化生产的成本距离的解,增加解的全局性。本文以北极地区的海冰密集度栅格数据为基础,求解北极地区适合航行路线的成本距离。实验表明,结合了蚁群算法和遗传算法优势的改进蚁群算法,能够快速有效地求解出基于栅格数据的成本距离。  相似文献   

双分辨率集合卡尔曼滤波同化方案及模拟试验          下载免费PDF全文

孙龙彧  乔小湜  蒋大凯  陈力强  吴曼丽  梁寒 《气象与环境学报》2013,29(5):43-48

高分辨率中尺度模式集合卡尔曼滤波实际应用的困难是集合预报会耗费大量的时间。而双分辨率集合卡尔曼滤波是由一组低分辨率样本提供同化所需的背景误差协方差矩阵,这种方法可以减少集合预报的时间。为了检验其有效性,文中利用模拟资料,与标准高分辨率集合卡尔曼滤波方法比较。结果表明：在第一个同化时次,两者对500 hPa水平风场和扰动位温场的分析增量场均与真实增量场的高低值中心位置一致,且结构与真实增量场接近,前者（高分辨率集合卡尔曼滤波）的增量值比后者（双分辨率集合卡尔曼滤波）的增量值更接近真实情况;在连续的预报-同化循环试验中,随着同化次数的增加,两种方法分析变量的均方根误差总体上都是下降的,均表现了很好的同化能力,但后者与前者相比仍存在一定的差距;在相同的运行环境下,后者的运行时间仅是前者的1/6。  相似文献   

中国制造业分布的地理变迁与驱动因素   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6  

石敏俊  杨晶  龙文  魏也华 《地理研究》2013,32(9):1708-1720

近年来中国制造业分布格局呈现出新的动向。以2004-2005年为转折点,以食品轻纺行业为主的部分制造业部门开始从沿海省份向中西部省份转移,北京、天津、上海、浙江、广东、福建等省份的产业份额明显下降,安徽、江西、湖南、河南、四川等中西部省份的产业份额趋于增加。在地市尺度上,制造业分布变化呈现出"西进北上"的特点,具体表现为产业份额从沿海发达城市转向沿海省份内部发展相对滞后的地市、以及中西部省份内部产业基础较好且本地市场规模较大的地市。中部地区的重点开发区域已成为承接产业转移的重要载体。沿海地区劳动力、土地等要素成本上升导致要素成本的区域差异不断扩大,与此同时中西部地区市场邻近和供给邻近逐步得到改善。沿海地区和中西部地区之间要素成本差异的扩大和贸易成本差异的缩小,使得贸易成本和要素成本的均衡关系发生逆转性变化,这是驱动中国产业分布地理变迁的核心因素。  相似文献