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21.
At first-order of approximation a sea-state may be considered as an infinite sum of Airy components with angular frequencies ωi and wave-number vectors ki. A second-order analysis shows the co-existence of long waves appearing at the difference frequencies ωiωj with wave-number vectors ki—kj. In shallow water they become appreciable in amplitudes and may induce slow-drift motion of moored structures.For small values of ωiωj,ki—kj may take all kinds of directions for an angular-spread wave system. Then it may be questioned how the in-line and transverse second-order accelerations compare to those obtained for a mono-directional wave-system.This analysis is carried out here by relating the spectra of the second-order horizontal accelerations to the directional wave-spectrum. Numerical applications are first performed for deep water. They show that at low frequencies, even for very narrowly spread wave systems, the transverse component is larger than the in-line component. In shallow water both components are dratically reduced as compared to the mono-directional case. As a consequence one may question the validity of model-testings or numerical models which take no account of the directionality of the wave-system.  相似文献   
22.
Low-frequency damping of a moored semisubmersible drilling platform was obtained from numerical extinction tests simulated in still water and in regular waves and from mean wave drift forces calculated at zero forward speed. The influence of drag forces was represented by the modified Morison equation. The platform as used for the 18th ITTC Comparative Mooring Study was analyzed in irregular beam waves. The computed time series of sway as well as the corresponding sway response spectrum compared favourably with model test measurements, demonstrating that this procedure to determine low-frequency damping can be effective.  相似文献   
23.
分形分析方法在海冰趋势预测中的应用   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
根据渤海北部1966——2001海冰冰级年际变化的实际资料,利用R/S分析的原理和方法计算了H指数,建立了R(i)/S(i)与i的关系式,对渤海北部海冰趋势进行了预测分析。结果表明,利用分形分析方法进行海冰趋势预测不仅方法简便,而且结论具有客观性,可以将其作为海冰趋势预测中较为有效的一种方法。  相似文献   
24.
Seasonal and spatial variations of iceberg drift were studied using continuous satellite scatterometer images off Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica. Generally, iceberg drift speed showed a westward increase to the Greenwich Meridian. Seasonal variations of the drift speed were high in autumn—early winter and low in spring, and their magnitudes also increased westward. Seasonal variations of the drift speed were significantly correlated with variations of sea levels at Syowa and Mawson Stations, and hence qualitatively consistent with geostrophic current variations. Thus, the scatterometer data are demonstrated to be useful in monitoring iceberg trajectory and oceanic current variations. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   
25.
青岛市大气污染时间序列分析预报方法研究   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
根据青岛市大气污染监测资料 ,采用时间序列分析方法 ,建立多种预报模型 ,有原序列周期外延法、均生函数周期外延法、均生函数逐步回归法以及自回归预报法等 ,最后提出一种综合预报模型。连续预报试验表明 ,综合预报模型优于任何个别预报模型 ,有较好的预报能力。利用马尔可夫概型对污染状态 (轻、中、重 )进行了分级预报试验 ,也获得良好的效果。  相似文献   
26.
高志刚  李程  李欢  王国松 《海洋通报》2020,39(2):272-280
近些年,由于中国经济的高速发展,原油需求逐年增长,同时海上溢油事故发生的风险也在加剧。海上溢油会严重破坏海洋环境,危害我国经济发展,加强溢油漂移扩散预报研究能够为海上溢油应急响应提供技术支撑。因此,国家海洋信息中心研发了海上突发事件应急一体化预测预警系统。该系统基于GIS平台研发,能够在二维电子海图基础上叠加相关的海洋环境动力要素信息,模拟溢油扩散和漂移态势,同时计算剩余油量,估算溢油面积以及岸线吸附程度等。2013年11月22日,山东黄岛发生输油管道爆炸事故,造成大量原油溢入胶州湾。本文利用该系统结合高分辨率大气模型WRF的三重嵌套技术和海流模型SELFE的非结构化网格加密技术,对事故溢油漂移扩散开展了预测工作。预测结果显示,油污受胶州湾内往复流的影响极大,72 h后,胶州湾内外大部分海域都将存在油污,主要集中在黄岛沿岸海域、团岛及浮山湾附近,预测扫海面积为70.32 km2。经海事部门高分辨率卫星观测结果印证,系统模拟的溢油分布较为合理。该系统的业务化应用为相关海上溢油污染应急工作提供了一定理论依据和参考。  相似文献   
27.
在分析山东南部海岸几十年来的地形观测资料的基础上,运用砂质海岸等深线变化预测理论,建立该区的岸滩侵蚀演变预测模型,研究了该区域岸滩演变规律。实测资料验证表明:预测结果合理,基本反映了本区岸滩演变的特征。  相似文献   
28.
黄河三角洲*暴雨雷达回波特征及临近预报   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
本文利用1994-1998年东营站713数字化雷达回波资料结合高空、地面形势,对发生在黄河三角洲地区的33个暴雨日41个暴雨中尺度雷达回波系统特征及形成过程进行了总结,提出了暴雨临近预报的着眼点。在1999年的预报服务中,取得了良好的经济效益和社会效益。  相似文献   
29.
李英 《海洋预报》2005,22(Z1):183-188
作为海洋环境预报公益服务的窗口自开播至今,经历了20年的风风雨雨,海洋电视节目的内容从单一性的项目到海浪、海温、海冰、风暴潮、海水浴场综合性预报,电视视频信号从复合、分量信号到数字信号,通过光缆采用基带的方式传送视频信号到中央电视台.  相似文献   
30.
High resolution, single-channel seismic sparker profiles across the Akademichesky Ridge, an intra-basin structural high in Lake Baikal (Russia), reveal the presence of small sediment mounds and intervening moats in the upper part of the sedimentary cover. Such features interrupt the generally uniform and even acoustic facies and are not consistent with the hemipelagic sedimentation, which is expected on such an isolated high and which would produce a uniform sediment drape over bottom irregularities. The influence of turbidity currents is excluded since the ridge is an isolated high elevated more than 600-1000 m above adjacent basins. The mounded seismic facies, including migrating sediment waves and non-depositional/erosional incisions, strongly suggest that sediment accumulation was controlled by bottom-current activity. We interpret the mounds as small-scale (< few tens of km2 in area) lacustrine drifts. Four basic types of geometry are identified: 1) slope-plastered patch sheets; 2) patch drifts; 3) confined drifts; 4) fault-controlled drifts. The general asymmetry in the sedimentary cover of the ridge, showing thicker deposits on the NW flank, and the common location of patch drifts on the northeast side of small basement knolls indicate that deposition took preferentially place at the lee sides of obstacles in a current flowing northward or sub-parallel to the main contours. Deep-water circulation in the ridge area is not known in detail, but there are indications that relatively cold saline water masses are presently flowing out of the Central Basin and plunging into the deep parts of the North Basin across the ridge, a process that appears to be driven mainly by small differences in salinity. We infer that the process responsible for the observed bottom-current-controlled sedimentary features has to be sought in these large-scale water-mass movements and their past equivalents. The age of the onset of the bottom-current-controlled sedimentation, based on an average sedimentation rate of 4.0 cm/ky, is roughly estimated to be as least as old as 3.5 Ma, which is generally regarded as the age of the onset of the last major tectonic pulse of rift basin development in the Baikal region.  相似文献   
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