中国地面气温统计降尺度预报方法研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

陈国华  郭品文 《大气科学学报》2016,39(4):569-575

利用中国752个基本、基准地面气象观测站2000—2010年地面温度日值数据,采用具有自适应特征的Kalman滤波类型的递减平均统计降尺度技术,对中国地面温度进行精细化预报研究。分析该方案的降尺度效果,并与常用插值降尺度方法进行比较。结果表明:1)递减平均统计降尺度技术相比插值方法有较大的提高,显著减小东西部预报效果差异,1~3 d预报的均方根误差减小了1.4℃;2)该方案1~3 d预报的均方根误差为1.5℃,预报误差从东南地区(均方根误差为1.4℃)向西北地区(均方根误差为1.8℃)逐渐增大,并且预报效果夏季优于冬季。因此,递减平均统计降尺度技术对中国地面温度进行精细化预报是可行的。  相似文献   

Estimation of transit trip production using Factorial Kriging with External Drift: an aggregated data case study     

Anabele Lindner  Cira Souza Pitombo  Samille Santos Rocha  José Alberto Quintanilha 《地球空间信息科学学报》2016,19(4):245-254

Studies in transportation planning routinely use data in which location attributes are an important source of information. Thus, using spatial attributes in urban travel forecasting models seems reasonable. The main objective of this paper is to estimate transit trip production using Factorial Kriging with External Drift (FKED) through an aggregated data case study of Traffic Analysis Zones in São Paulo city, Brazil. The method consists of a sequential application of Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and Kriging with External Drift (KED). The traditional Linear Regression (LR) model was adopted with the aim of validating the proposed method. The results show that PCA summarizes and combines 23 socioeconomic variables using 4 components. The first component is introduced in KED, as secondary information, to estimate transit trip production by public transport in geographic coordinates where there is no prior knowledge of the values. Cross-validation for the FKED model presented high values of the correlation coefficient between estimated and observed values. Moreover, low error values were observed. The accuracy of the LR model was similar to FKED. However, the proposed method is able to map the transit trip production in several geographical coordinates of non-sampled values.  相似文献   

Comparative Analysis of International Energy Consumption Characteristics and China's Countermeasures     

Yang Zhanhong  Lü  Lianhong  Cao Bao  Wang Xiao  Luo Hong 《地球科学进展》2016,31(1):94-102

With the rise of low carbon economy and the deterioration of the international energy situation, most countries in the world pay more attention to energy issues. In this paper, based on a comparison with several countries of large energy consumption, we used long sequence statistics to analyze the energy consumption characteristics from the world and the history, including energy consumption, energy consumption structure and energy efficiency, and then summed up the characteristics of energy consumption in developed countries, analyzed China's energy consumption process and the current stage, and found out the main problems of energy consumption in China. At last, countermeasures for the healthy development of China's energy were proposed, including actively promoting scientific and technological progress, upgrading energy structure, developing low carbon economy, rationalizing energy prices, improving the proportion of clean energy consumption and emphasizing synergistic effect on environment protection.  相似文献   

大连蜈蚣藻孢子发育及生活史的研究     

贾潇博  姜朋  周汝金  关云  王宏伟 《海洋科学》2016,40(10):25-32

在实验室条件下,对大连蜈蚣藻(Grateloupia dalianensis H.W.Wang et D.Zhao)的孢子早期发育、盘状体的形成和直立枝生长进行了详细研究,对其生活史进行了详细观察,并进行了温度和光照强度对孢子发育影响的研究。结果表明:(1)孢子发育类型为间接盘状体型;(2)生活史由雌、雄配子体、四分孢子体和果孢子体三相世代组成,配子体与孢子体形态相同,属于同型世代交替,与属模蜈蚣藻(G.filicina)一致;(3)温度对盘状体和直立枝生长均有影响,最适温度均为16℃;(4)光照强度对盘状体和直立枝生长均有影响,最适光照强度分别为7 500 lx和10 000 lx。  相似文献   

不同刚度植物杆群对规则波传播及紊动特性影响研究     

谭超  黄本胜  刘达  邱静  王珍  吉红香 《海洋工程》2016,34(6):38-45

以不同刚度硅胶圆杆群为概化植物模型,测定其抗弯弹性模量,通过波浪水槽实验,研究规则波在不同刚度植物杆群内的流速分布、紊动特征及不同刚度杆群的消浪效果。实验结果表明,当波浪通过柔性杆群时,受其摆动的影响,流速周期变化从单峰型逐渐转变成双峰型,杆群刚度越小形成的二次波峰越明显;不同刚度杆群内水体紊动强度变化显示,杆群刚度越大,造成杆群内水体的紊动强度越大;随着杆群抗弯弹性模量的增大,其消浪系数也增大,消浪系数的增长与材料的抗弯弹性模量值非线性关系,而是在某一弹性模量范围内,对消浪系数的影响较为敏感。  相似文献   

1965-2015年新疆夏季不同等级降水的空间分布特征   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

杜雅菡  周顺武  亨巴提  李耀辉  王铁  宋瑶 《冰川冻土》2018,40(6):1231-1241

根据新疆51个台站1965-2015年夏季逐日降水资料,将降水划分为小雨、中雨及大雨3个等级,分析了新疆近51 a夏季不同等级降水量、降水日数及降水强度的空间分布特征,并讨论了各等级降水日、降水量及降水强度与总降水量的空间相似程度以及各等级降水对夏季总降水的贡献。结果表明：新疆降水主要集中在夏季,并以小雨为主。以天山山脉为界,南北两疆降水空间分布存在明显差异,北疆夏季降水量（日）占年降水量（日）的36%~45%（36%~39%）,南疆夏季降水量（日）占年降水量（日）的51%~63%（48%~60%）;新疆夏季不同等级降水量、降水日及降水强度的空间分布不均匀。新疆夏季总降水量与各等级降水量的空间相似系数最为密切,与各等级降水强度的空间相似系数相对较小;新疆夏季小雨贡献率最大,中雨其次,大雨最小,夏季降水量和降水日的变化主要受小雨的影响。  相似文献   

微波辐射计在对流天气预报中的应用     

蔡奕萍  袁志扬  李婵珠  黄锋 《广东气象》2021,43(1)

选取2016—2018年每年4—9月份RPG-HATPRO型42通道微波辐射计观测的不稳定指数参数(K、SI、CAPE、LI)及水汽参数(IWV、LWP),研究得出各参数触发雷雨大风、短时强降水的阈值条件为K>37℃、SI<-1℃、IWV>60 kg/m~2、LWP>400 g/m~2,而LI、CAPE无法对3种天气类型进行区分。利用费舍判别分析方法,将不稳定指数参数及水汽参数作为预报因子,建立预报方程并进行检验,结果表明:二级判别方程预测对流天气的准确率为76%,可以作为预报对流天气的辅助工具;多级判别方程不能很好地区分3种天气类型,但将其作为修正后的二级判别方程使用,能提高对流天气的测中概率。  相似文献   

Influence of Sea Surface Temperature on the Predictability of Idealized Tropical Cyclone Intensity     

钟权加  李建平  李舒文  王羱  丁瑞强  张立凤 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(4):355-367

The role of sea surface temperature (SST) forcing in the development and predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is examined using a large set of idealized numerical experiments in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results indicate that the onset time of rapid intensification of TC gradually decreases, and the peak intensity of TC gradually increases, with the increased magnitude of SST. The predictability limits of the maximum 10 m wind speed (MWS) and minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) are ~72 and ~84 hours, respectively. Comparisons of the analyses of variance for different simulation time confirm that the MWS and MSLP have strong signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) from 0-72 hours and a marked decrease beyond 72 hours. For the horizontal and vertical structures of wind speed, noticeable decreases in the magnitude of SNR can be seen as the simulation time increases, similar to that of the SLP or perturbation pressure. These results indicate that the SST as an external forcing signal plays an important role in TC intensity for up to 72 hours, and it is significantly weakened if the simulation time exceeds the predictability limits of TC intensity.  相似文献   

西北太平洋热带气旋路径的历史模拟          下载免费PDF全文

郑倩  孙艺迪  高猛 《大气科学学报》2021,44(6):862-874

基于IBTrACS提供的热带气旋最佳路径数据集,在统计分析历史热带气旋的发生年频次、发生位置、路径移动及强度变化等的基础上,建立了西北太平洋热带气旋轨迹合成模型。模型包括生成模型、移动模型、消亡模型及强度模型4个部分,并从地理轨迹密度、年登陆率、登陆风速分布三个方面,对模拟的气旋路径与历史气旋路径进行比较,以验证模型的准确性和可靠性。结果表明,构建的西北太平洋热带气旋全路径统计模拟模型稳健可靠,可进一步应用于研究区热带气旋的定量精细化的风险评估,能提高气旋风险灾害评估的可信度。  相似文献   

1960—2017年河西地区降水时空变化特征     

王秀娜  丁永建  王建  赵传成 《冰川冻土》2021,43(4):1179-1189

利用1960—2017年日降水量资料,采用线性倾向趋势分析、滑动分析和泰森多边形法等,对河西地区多年降水时空变化特征及不同量级降水日数及降水强度的变化趋势进行了研究。结果表明：河西地区年均降水量为99.0 mm,呈现明显的逐年上升趋势,平均倾向率为8.72 mm?（10a）^-1,月降水量为单峰分布,5—10月夏秋汛期降水量占年降水量的89.2%,各季节降水量均呈现显著上升趋势;年均降水日数为36.7天,呈现明显的上升趋势,增幅为3.18 d?（10a）^-1,降水日数主要分布在夏季,约占总降水日数的54.6%;平均降水强度为2.70 mm?d^-1,呈现减弱趋势,变化速率为-0.04 mm?d^-1?（10a）^-1;零星小雨和小雨降水日数均呈现增加趋势,而二者平均降水强度均为下降趋势,小到中雨降水日数和降水强度呈现增加趋势,中雨及以上的降水变化趋势不明显。  相似文献