Temporal replication of the national land cover database using active machine learning     

Galen J. Maclaurin 《地理信息系统科学与遥感》2016,53(6):759-777

Regional and national level land cover datasets, such as the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) in the United States, have become an important resource in physical and social science research. Updates to the NLCD have been conducted every 5 years since 2001; however, the procedure for producing a new release is labor-intensive and time-consuming, taking 3 or 4 years to complete. Furthermore, in most countries very few, if any, such releases exist, and thus there is high demand for efficient production of land cover data at different points in time. In this paper, an active machine learning framework for temporal updating (or backcasting) of land cover data is proposed and tested for three study sites covered by the NLCD. The approach employs a maximum entropy classifier to extract information from one Landsat image using the NLCD, and then replicate the classification on a Landsat image for the same geographic extent from a different point in time to create land cover data of similar quality. Results show that this framework can effectively replicate the land cover database in the temporal domain with similar levels of overall and within class agreement when compared against high resolution reference land cover datasets. These results demonstrate that the land cover information encapsulated in the NLCD can effectively be extracted using solely Landsat imagery for replication purposes. The algorithm is fully automated and scalable for applications at landscape and regional scales for multiple points in time.  相似文献   

Modeling the risk of spread and establishment for Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) in Massachusetts from 2008-2009     

Andrew J. Shatz  Florencia Sangermano  Jennifer Miller  Arthur Elmes 《国际地球制图》2016,31(8):813-831

Land managers responsible for invasive species removal in the USA require tools to prevent the Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) (ALB) from decimating the maple-dominant hardwood forests of Massachusetts and New England. Species distribution models (SDMs) and spread models have been applied individually to predict the invasion distribution and rate of spread, but the combination of both models can increase the accuracy of predictions of species spread over time when habitat suitability is heterogeneous across landscapes. First, a SDM was fit to 2008 ALB presence-only locations. Then, a stratified spread model was generated to measure the probability of spread due to natural and human causes. Finally, the SDM and spread models were combined to evaluate the risk of ALB spread in Central Massachusetts in 2008–2009. The SDM predicted many urban locations in Central Massachusetts as having suitable environments for species establishment. The combined model shows the greatest risk of spread and establishment in suitable locations immediately surrounding the epicentre of the ALB outbreak in Northern Worcester with lower risk areas in suitable locations only accessible through long-range dispersal from access to human transportation networks. The risk map achieved an accuracy of 67% using 2009 ALB locations for model validation. This model framework can effectively provide risk managers with valuable information concerning the timing and spatial extent of spread/establishment risk of ALB and potential strategies needed for effective future risk management efforts.  相似文献   

Discussion on applying an analytical method to optimize the anti-freeze design parameters for underground water pipelines in seasonally frozen areas     

Ji Chen  JingYi Zhao  Kun Li  Yu Sheng 《寒旱区科学》2016,8(6):467-476

Adopting the quasi-three-dimensional (Quasi-3D) numerical method to optimize the anti-freeze design parameters of an underground pipeline usually involves heavy numerical calculations. Here, the fitting formulae between the safe conveyance distance (SCD) of a water pipeline and six influencing factors are established based on the lowest water temperature (LWT) along the pipeline axis direction. With reference to the current widely used anti-freeze design approaches for underground pipelines in seasonally frozen areas, this paper first analyzes the feasibility of applying the maximum frozen penetration (MFP) instead of the mean annual ground surface temperature (MAGST) and soil water content (SWC) to calculate the SCD. The results show that the SCD depends on the buried depth if the MFP is fixed and the variation of the MAGST and SWC combination does not significantly change the SCD. A comprehensive formula for the SCD is established based on the relationships between the SCD and several primary influencing factors and the interaction among them. This formula involves five easy-to-access parameters: the MFP, buried depth, pipeline diameter, flow velocity, and inlet water temperature. A comparison between the analytical method and the numerical results based on the Quasi-3D method indicates that the two methods are in good agreement overall. The analytic method can be used to optimize the anti-freeze design parameters of underground water pipelines in seasonally frozen areas under the condition of a 1.5 safety coefficient.  相似文献   

全日潮海域风暴潮增水中全日扰动和半日扰动分析     

李谊纯  刘金贵  董德信 《海洋工程》2016,34(5):51-56

风暴潮增水是风暴潮与天文潮相互作用理论研究的基本内容,也是风暴潮预报中的重要问题。最大余水位的产生机制对于提高预报精度及海岸带防护有着重要意义。为研究全日潮海域风暴潮增水中的全日扰动和半日扰动,对Horsburgh与Wilson的风暴潮余水位模型进行了改进和扩展,建立了包括多个分潮的余水位分解方法并将其应用于防城港站,对台风"启德"和"山神"影响下的潮位过程进行了分析。结果显示,建立的余水位的分解方法对于全日分潮和半日分潮有良好的适用性。由于高频分潮产生机制的复杂性,该方法对高频分潮应用尚需进一步研究。在全日潮的防城港海域,全日扰动与半日扰动具有相同的量级,二者的和约占总增水的15%~19%。台风过程不同,相位变化项和局地变化项对增水的贡献有较大差异。  相似文献   

Application of Linear Mean-Square Estimation in Ocean Engineering     

王莉萍  陈柏宇  陈超  陈正寿  刘桂林 《海洋工程》2016,(1):149-160

The attempt to obtain long-term observed data around some sea areas we concern is usually very hard or even impossible in practical offshore and ocean engineering situations. In this paper, by means of linear mean-square estimation method, a new way to extend short-term data to long-term ones is developed. The long-term data about concerning sea areas can be constructed via a series of long-term data obtained from neighbor oceanographic stations, through relevance analysis of different data series. It is effective to cover the insufficiency of time series prediction method’s overdependence upon the length of data series, as well as the limitation of variable numbers adopted in multiple linear regression model. The storm surge data collected from three oceanographic stations located in Shandong Peninsula are taken as examples to analyze the number-selection effect of reference oceanographic stations (adjacent to the concerning sea area) and the correlation coefficients between sea sites which are selected for reference and for engineering projects construction respectively. By comparing the N-year return-period values which are calculated from observed raw data and processed data which are extended from finite data series by means of the linear mean-square estimation method, one can draw a conclusion that this method can give considerably good estimation in practical ocean engineering, in spite of different extreme value distributions about raw and processed data.  相似文献   

非平稳条件下北京市最大月降水量频率特征分析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

韩丽  黄俊雄  周娜  李超 《水文》2021,41(2):32-37,108

为探究气候变化下极端降水的频率变化特征,基于北京市22个雨量站实测月降水量数据,以时间为协变量构建平稳和非平稳GEV模型,对北京市最大月降水量序列(极值降水序列)进行模拟和频率分析,并采用Bootstrap方法对频率分析结果的不确定性进行评价。结果表明:所有极值降水序列的最优概率分布模型均为非平稳GEV模型,该模型能够抓住序列随时间呈显著下降趋势的变化特征;由非平稳GEV模型估算得到的极值降水重现水平随时间呈减少趋势,这意味着未来极值降水导致洪涝灾害的风险在降低,但导致干旱的风险将增加;随着重现期的增加,极值降水重现水平估计值的不确定性也随之增大。  相似文献   

BP人工神经网络法在大同市日极大风速预报中的应用     

刘洁莉  刘冬辉  韩登云  徐鑫 《内蒙古气象》2019,(2):34-38

文章利用2010年1月1日—2013年12月31日逐日NCEP再分析资料(1°×1°)和大同地区地面常规观测资料,采用BP人工神经网络法建立大同市分站点、分季节日极大风速人工神经网络预报模型并且在对T639数值预报产品和EC细网格数值预报产品释用基础上建立了台站日极大风速的客观预报系统,对2015年9月1日—2016年7月31日进行了24h预报,试用结果显示,各季模式平均绝对误差在3.2~5.7m·s^-1之间,因此,该系统可以为预报员快速做出日极大风速的预报提供客观参考依据。  相似文献   

冷空气强风在大型城市中的精细结构和形成机制     

向杰勋  陈桂兴  姜平  吴乃庚  温之平 《大气科学》2019,43(3):577-597

地面强风可直接造成人员伤亡和经济损失,严重影响出行安全、工农业生产等社会秩序。强风的发生与天气系统和复杂下垫面的共同作用密切相关,在城市区域尤为明显。受数值模拟技术和计算资源的限制,对实际天气条件下大范围城区的强风现象进行建筑物分辨率的大规模数值模拟研究仍是一个挑战。本研究利用中尺度气象模式嵌套流体计算动力模式的超高分辨率局地气象预报系统,对强冷空气过程造成广州市区的一次强风事件进行数值模拟,深入探讨强风的精细结构和形成机制。结果表明,伴随着强冷空气入侵,广州市区的平均风速和风场高频扰动均明显增强,且在城市冠层顶尤为明显,呈现区域不均匀的三维结构,数值模拟与地面观测相一致。较大范围的强风速和阵风主要出现在建筑物较为低矮的老城区上空,并持续影响下游河道等开阔区域。在高层建筑密集的新城区,虽然整体风速明显减弱,但能在平行风向的街道狭管和下游区域形成局地强风。特别是,超高层建筑群引起显著的垂直环流,导致强风扰动向下传播,造成最大风速达8 m s?1的地面局地强风,阵风指数接近2。上游建筑群引起的风场扰动呈现大尺度湍流结构,能沿着平均气流传播影响数公里之远的下游地区。当风场扰动经过广州塔等单体超高层建筑时,可在其两侧绕流区再次加强,形成局地强风。局地强风和阵风还出现在垂直于风向排列的沿江高层建筑群的侧边,与建筑屏风的阻挡效应和缺口溢出有关。研究结果促进认识城市强风的时空特征和物理机制,有助于提升城市气象的精细化预报水平。  相似文献   

Holocene peatland development and hydrological variability inferred from bog‐pine dendrochronology and peat stratigraphy – a case study from southern Sweden     

Johannes Edvardsson  Hans Linderson  Mats Rundgren  Dan Hammarlund 《第四纪科学杂志》2012,27(6):553-563

Dendrochronological analysis was applied to subfossil remains of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) buried in a South Swedish peat deposit. In combination with peat stratigraphy, this approach was explored for its potential to provide information on the local hydrological and depositional history at the site, forming the basis for a regional palaeohydrological analysis. A 726‐year ring‐width chronology was developed and assigned an absolute age of 7233–6508 cal a BP (5284–4559 BC) through cross‐dating with German bog‐pine chronologies, whereas two short additional records of older ages were radiocarbon dated. Registration of growth positions of individual trees allowed assessment of the spatial dynamics of the pine population in response to hydrological changes and peatland ontogeny. Annually resolved growth variability patterns in the pine population reveal several establishment and degeneration phases, probably reflecting fluctuations in bog‐surface wetness. A major establishment phase at 7200–6900 cal a BP reflects the onset of a period of lowered groundwater level, also indicated by increased peat humification, and a development consistent with regional temperature and lake level reconstructions revealed from other proxies. This study demonstrates that subfossil bog‐pine populations may provide annually to decadally resolved reconstructions of local groundwater variability, which are highly relevant in a long‐term palaeoclimatic context. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Trend detection in river flow series: 1. Annual maximum flow / Détection de tendance dans des séries de débit fluvial: 1. Débit maximum annuel     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5)

Abstract

Results of a study on change detection in hydrological time series of annual maximum river flow are presented. Out of more than a thousand long time series made available by the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) in Koblenz, Germany, a worldwide data set consisting of 195 long series of daily mean flow records was selected, based on such criteria as length of series, currency, lack of gaps and missing values, adequate geographical distribution, and priority to smaller catchments. The analysis of annual maximum flows does not support the hypothesis of ubiquitous growth of high flows. Although 27 cases of strong, statistically significant increase were identified by the Mann-Kendall test, there are 31 decreases as well, and most (137) time series do not show any significant changes (at the 10% level). Caution is advised in interpreting these results as flooding is a complex phenomenon, caused by a number of factors that can be associated with local, regional, and hemispheric climatic processes. Moreover, river flow has strong natural variability and exhibits long-term persistence which can confound the results of trend and significance tests.  相似文献