Single‐and multi‐objective genetic algorithm optimization for identifying soil parameters     

A. Papon  Y. Riou  C. Dano  P.‐Y. Hicher 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2012,36(5):597-618

This paper discusses the quality of the procedure employed in identifying soil parameters by inverse analysis. This procedure includes a FEM‐simulation for which two constitutive models—a linear elastic perfectly plastic Mohr–Coulomb model and a strain‐hardening elasto‐plastic model—are successively considered. Two kinds of optimization algorithms have been used: a deterministic simplex method and a stochastic genetic method. The soil data come from the results of two pressuremeter tests, complemented by triaxial and resonant column testing. First, the inverse analysis has been performed separately on each pressuremeter test. The genetic method presents the advantage of providing a collection of satisfactory solutions, among which a geotechnical engineer has to choose the optimal one based on his scientific background and/or additional analyses based on further experimental test results. This advantage is enhanced when all the constitutive parameters sensitive to the considered problem have to be identified without restrictions in the search space. Second, the experimental values of the two pressuremeter tests have been processed simultaneously, so that the inverse analysis becomes a multi‐objective optimization problem. The genetic method allows the user to choose the most suitable parameter set according to the Pareto frontier and to guarantee the coherence between the tests. The sets of optimized parameters obtained from inverse analyses are then used to calculate the response of a spread footing, which is part of a predictive benchmark. The numerical results with respect to both the constitutive models and the inverse analysis procedure are discussed. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Simultaneous calibration of surface flow and baseflow simulations: a revisit of the SWAT model calibration framework     

Xuesong Zhang  Raghavan Srinivasan  Jeff Arnold  R. Cesar Izaurralde  David Bosch 《水文研究》2011,25(14):2313-2320

Accurate analysis of water flow pathways from rainfall to streams is critical for simulating water use, climate change impact, and contaminants transport. In this study, we developed a new scheme to simultaneously calibrate surface flow (SF) and baseflow (BF) simulations of soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) by combing evolutionary multi‐objective optimization (EMO) and BF separation techniques. The application of this scheme demonstrated pronounced trade‐off of SWAT's performance on SF and BF simulations. The simulated major water fluxes and storages variables (e.g. soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and groundwater) using the multiple parameters from EMO span wide ranges. Uncertainty analysis was conducted by Bayesian model averaging of the Pareto optimal solutions. The 90% confidence interval (CI) estimated using all streamflows substantially overestimate the uncertainty of low flows on BF days while underestimating the uncertainty of high flows on SF days. Despite using statistical criteria calculated based on streamflow for model selection, it is important to conduct diagnostic analysis of the agreement of SWAT behaviour and actual watershed dynamics. The new calibration technique can serve as a useful tool to explore the trade‐off between SF and BF simulations and provide candidates for further diagnostic assessment and model identification. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

NINO3.4指数的多模式集合预报方法     

郭炜豪  温文  王晓春  郑志海 《热带气象学报》2019,35(2):262-267

基于贝叶斯模式平均方法(Bayesian Model Averaging),发展了一个NINO3.4指数的多模式客观权重集合预报方法(简称OBJ)。该方法基于训练期内单个模式的预报结果,用线性回归订正单个预报的偏差,依据模式的预报效果估计单个模式的权重。利用2002年2月—2015年10月美国哥伦比亚大学国际气候与社会研究所(IRI)提供的7个单一模式对NINO3.4指数的预报结果进行OBJ试验,并采用均方根误差对多模式集合平均预报(简称ENS)和OBJ的预报结果进行检验和评估。结果表明,ENS的预报效果优于7个单一模式的预报效果,而OBJ预报效果优于ENS预报效果,其NINO3.4指数的均方根误差比ENS方法降低了4%。将单一模式预报结果按时间划分为训练期和预报期,利用独立样本估计OBJ的参数并进行预报试验,这些试验也表明,OBJ能进一步提高预报精度。   相似文献   

最优集合预报订正方法在客观温度预报中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

郝翠  张迎新  王在文  付宗钰  DELLE MONACHE Luca 《气象》2019,45(8):1085-1092

数值模式的直接输出预报在实际应用时常与实况产生一定的偏差,对模式预报进行有效的本地化订正是提高预报准确率的重要手段。以欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)模式细网格资料,采用最优集合(anolog ensemble,AnEn)预报订正方法对北京市各站1～7 d的日最高气温和日最低气温进行订正,并对相关参数进行了本地化。采用了滑动训练期、优化变量权重两种方案进行训练。检验评估结果表明:(1)滑动训练期采用60 d时能同时保证计算效率和预报准确率;采用最优变量权重方案后,与预报员主观预报准确率对比,AnEn的最低气温优于预报员主观预报,最高气温基本相当;增加训练期的长度(引入多年的历史资料)相比优化变量权重方案能更有效地提高预报准确率。(2)AnEn预报订正方法在改善数值模式预报的固有偏差(如对由数值模式对局地地形、边界层日变化等形成的误差)效果显著,有较好的应用价值;对于因局地天气(如霾、降水、大风等)影响下,AnEn的温度预报准确率虽优于ECMWF,但不如主观预报,未来还有改进空间。还对检验结果进行了时间和空间验证,确保在以后的业务尤其是智能网格预报业务中的运行效果。  相似文献   

一种粒子群算法求解最优抵偿投影面的方法     

吴啸龙  杨志强  白亚伟 《测绘科学》2015,40(2):142-144,159

为了更加有效地控制在建立高斯平面直角坐标系时产生的实测边长投影变形,该文研究利用粒子群非线性算法在有限维度的解空间内,动态、自适应地求解抵偿投影面参数的方法。结果表明:采用粒子群算法得到的抵偿投影面结果不但满足ym不同取值时投影变形的限差要求,同时相应的投影变形量绝对值均小于经典算法给出的结果。在控制实测边长投影变形时,该方法具有同时满足快速收敛与遍历解空间全部潜在解的优势。  相似文献   

客观预报方程中因子的选取及应用效果分析     

许美玲  段旭  丁圣 《气象》2009,35(9):112-118

利用因子选取及方程建立人机交互平台,建立了云南省125个气象站的降水、温度客观要素预报方程.对比试验表明,绝大多数组合因子都优于单因子,组合因子预报方程的质量普遍比单因子预报方程好.预报检验结果显示,干季的降水预报尚未达到可用程度,雨季小雨及中雨、大雨的预报有一定业务指导意义,对于反映中小尺度系统的暴雨天气预报效果较差,在因子的选择上还需要做大量细致的工作.温度预报具有一定的参考价值,但还有待进一步改进.  相似文献   

Comparison of spectral and time domain calibration methods for precipitation‐discharge processes     

Jan J. Quets  Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy  Valentijn R. N. Pauwels 《水文研究》2010,24(8):1048-1062

Hydrological model parameter estimation is an important aspect in hydrologic modelling. Usually, parameters are estimated through an objective function minimization, quantifying the mismatch between the model results and the observations. The objective function choice has a large impact on the sensitivity analysis and calibration outcomes. In this study, it is assessed whether spectral objective functions can compete with an objective function in the time domain for optimization of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Three empirical spectral objective functions were applied, based on matching (i) Fourier amplitude spectra, (ii) periodograms and (iii) Fourier series of simulated and observed discharge time series. It is shown that most sensitive parameters and their optimal values are distinct for different objective functions. The best results were found through calibration with an objective function based on the square difference between the simulated and observed discharge Fourier series coefficients. The potential strengths and weaknesses of using a spectral objective function as compared to utilising a time domain objective function are discussed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

对T106分析／预报场可预报性的初步分析   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：3  

李Chong  于波 《气象科学》2001,21(4):379-391

本文围绕日常天气预报的需求和为区域数值天气预报模式定义天气背景场和初值场的需要，针对9210工程MICAPS系统中T106谱模式的客观分析场和预报场的可预报性进行了初步诊断，定量分析比较了T106、欧洲中心ECMWT、华盛顿KEBC和日本JAPAN数值模式对天气环流形势和预报的统计误差，并初步探讨了模式误差的自身预报问题。文中指出了T106模式的误差源主要来自于其客观分析场的固定误差，提出了以集成客观分析场作为客观分析，提供预报员预报参考或作为数值预报的背景初值场。  相似文献   

Interpolation of runoff applying objective methods     

L. Gottschalk 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1993,7(4):269-281

The paper treats the problem of interpolating annual runoff from regular streamflow measurements in a regional scale applying objective methods. These methods are adapted to point processes like temperature and precipitation. Modifications are needed to account for the fact that streamflow is an integrated process following the hierarchical structure of river systems. The most straightforward method is therefore to relate the interpolation to the existing river network. For theoretical reasons it is preferable to interpolate the lateral inflow rather than the flow in the river itself. Procedures for the interpolation with the different approaches are developed and discussed. Special attention is put on the question how the equation of continuity can be satisfied. The Laagen drainage basin in southern Norway is used as a test area. The data consist of annual observations of streamflow and digital map information on river networks and drainage basin boundaries.  相似文献   

Objective Frontal Analysis Techniques Applied to Extreme/Non-Extreme Precipitation Events     

Kašpar  M. 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2003,47(3):605-631

A simple method of the objective frontal analysis (OFA) based on a thermal definition of atmospheric fronts is proposed for the area of Central Europe with the aid of gridded numerical weather prediction model (NWP model) outputs. The OFA includes both mathematical and graphical techniques that enable a computer to draw fronts entirely automatically in atmospheric cross-sections by means of one locating equation and four masking criteria. The OFA also enables to analyse the frontal wave position and the type, activity, and future development of fronts.The OFA is applied to two synoptically analogous cold-frontal situations, which occurred over the Czech Republic in summer season and were characterised by quite different precipitation amounts. The outputs (12h, 18h, and 24h forecasts) of the NWP model Europa Modell/Deutschland Modell are used in computations. The equivalent potential temperature is considered as an input thermal parameter of the OFA. The impact of applying and changing the OFA masking criteria is various and among others also depends on synoptic situation. The comparison between the objective and subjective analysed fronts subserves to evaluate the values of masking threshold constants. Some obtained results of the analysis of the extreme precipitation situation support the possibility of enhanced precipitation amounts. The analysis of the second non-extreme precipitation situation revealed a few different features that do not support the forecast of enhanced precipitation amounts. The results show the OFA could contribute to the improvement of the general short-range weather forecast.  相似文献