A timescale decomposed threshold regression downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall     

Linye Song  Wansuo Duan  Yun Li  Jiangyu Mao 《大气科学进展》2016,33(9):1071-7084

A timescale decomposed threshold regression(TSDTR) downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall(SCESR) is described by using long-term observed station rainfall data and NOAA ERSST data. It makes use of two distinct regression downscaling models corresponding to the interannual and interdecadal rainfall variability of SCESR.The two models are developed based on the partial least squares(PLS) regression technique, linking SCESR to SST modes in preceding months on both interannual and interdecadal timescales. Specifically, using the datasets in the calibration period 1915–84, the variability of SCESR and SST are decomposed into interannual and interdecadal components. On the interannual timescale, a threshold PLS regression model is fitted to interannual components of SCESR and March SST patterns by taking account of the modulation of negative and positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO). On the interdecadal timescale, a standard PLS regression model is fitted to the relationship between SCESR and preceding November SST patterns. The total rainfall prediction is obtained by the sum of the outputs from both the interannual and interdecadal models. Results show that the TSDTR downscaling approach achieves reasonable skill in predicting the observed rainfall in the validation period 1985–2006, compared to other simpler approaches. This study suggests that the TSDTR approach,considering different interannual SCESR-SST relationships under the modulation of PDO phases, as well as the interdecadal variability of SCESR associated with SST patterns, may provide a new perspective to improve climate predictions.  相似文献   

东北地区春季首场透雨的变化特征及与青藏高原地面加热场强度的关系   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

徐士琦  李栋梁 《气象》2016,42(3):271-279

利用1958—2012年4—5月东北地区(39°~55°N、118°~135°E)101个站点逐日降水资料、青藏高原地区(25°~40°N、73.75°~103.75°E)JRA-55的地面感热和潜热通量月平均再分析资料以及NCEP/NCAR-I大气环流场的月平均再分析资料,分析了春播期首场透雨出现日期的时空变化特征及其与透雨量和播种期降水量间的关系,以及对青藏高原地面加热场强度异常的响应及其可能机制。结果表明:透雨日期自1958年以来在东北地区的西北和东南大部分区域呈现略微偏晚的趋势;中部有略微偏早的趋势。春播期首场透雨出现时间偏早(晚)的地方,首场透雨量小(大),春播期总降水量多(少)。同时,4月青藏高原地面加热场强度增强(减弱),有利于(不利于)来自北方的冷空气和南方的暖湿气流在东北上空交汇,且上升气流增强(减弱),水汽输送充沛(减少),导致该地区春季首场透雨出现的时间偏早(晚)。  相似文献   

FY-3微波成像仪10.6 GHz通道超分辨率图像重建          下载免费PDF全文

陈博洋  谷松岩  陈凡胜 《应用气象学报》2016,27(1):123-128

为改善风云三号 (FY-3) 微波成像仪10.6 GHz通道空间分辨率,提出利用超分辨率图像重建算法进行图像重建。分析并指出FY-3微波成像仪10.6 GHz通道具有过采样特征,具备重建得到高于瞬时视场图像的潜力;基于超分辨率图像重建理论,根据FY-3气象卫星轨道、姿态,微波成像仪性能参数以及工作模式等物理约束,建立微波成像仪的超分辨率成像模型,并推导计算出超分辨率成像模型参数;采用POCS算法重建得到10.6 GHz通道的超分辨率图像,采用目视比较分析、图像统计分析对重建图像进行质量评价:重建图像像元平均梯度提高26.5%,功率谱分量和提高5.7%,重建图像具有更高的空间分辨率;台风亮温分析应用显示了从重建图像可发现更微小的景物细节目标。采用超分辨率图像重建算法对FY-3微波成像仪10.6 GHz通道进行重建处理,结果有效且正确,可为数据用户提供更多可用的遥感数据,对微波遥感数据应用具有提升作用。  相似文献   

近54年阿勒泰地区夏季极端降水事件气候特征     

博尔楠  恰里哈尔  阿依敏  别克达吾列提  宋佳 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2016,10(4):39-46

本文采用阿勒泰地区7个国家级气象站近54a(1960～2013年)夏季(6～8月)的日有效降水量（20～20h降水量≥0.1mm）资料,用WMO推荐的百分位法计算了全地区过去54a夏季极端强降水的阈值、进一步分析了当地夏季时空分布特征及变化趋势,结果表明：阿勒泰地区夏季极端强降水阈值呈西部、南部小,北部、东部大,并且空间异常分布特征如下: 夏季以及夏季各月的极端强降水日数和强度均可总结出5种最主要模型;极端强降水量可总结出8种最主要模型;并且通过时间标准化序列分析各种模型都有对应的降水日数、量级、强度明显偏多（强）和偏少（弱）的时段。日数、量级、强度近54a来,除吉木乃略有下降以外,其余各县（市）均为增长趋势,尤其是北部、东部地区.同时上述三指标存在着显著的年代际和年纪尺度的周期变化,上世纪90年代和2010年至今为三个指标最多(强)的年代,而上世纪70年代为最少（最差）的年代.并通过周期分析（小波分析）可知,均有对应的显著变化周期。  相似文献   

利用GNSS干涉信号振荡幅度反演土壤湿度   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

汉牟田  张波  杨东凯  洪学宝  杨磊  宋曙辉 《测绘学报》2016,45(11):1293-1300

根据干涉效应和GNSS接收机信噪比估计方法,推导了利用GNSS干涉信号幅度进行土壤湿度反演的模型,建模过程考虑了天线增益、土壤介电常数和噪声的影响。提出了使用AMPD算法从含有噪声的归一化干涉功率曲线中提取干涉峰值与谷值,进而反演了土壤介电常数与土壤湿度的方法,并对其进行了仿真。结果表明,利用提取出来的干涉谷值进行反演性能比峰值好,相对稳定准确的卫星仰角范围为5°~25°,湿度大于0.06cm~3/cm~3时反演结果更为准确,标准差在0.01cm~3/cm~3左右波动。  相似文献   

The Carrancas Formation,Bambuí Group: A record of pre-Marinoan sedimentation on the southern São Francisco craton,Brazil     

《Journal of South American Earth Sciences》2016

The Carrancas Formation outcrops in east-central Brazil on the southern margin of the São Francisco craton where it comprises the base of the late Neoproterozoic Bambuí Group. It is overlain by the basal Ediacaran cap carbonate Sete Lagoas Formation and was for a long time considered to be glacially influenced and correlative with the glaciogenic Jequitaí Formation. New stratigraphic, isotopic and geochronologic data imply that the Carrancas Formation was instead formed by the shedding of debris from basement highs uplifted during an episode of minor continental rifting. Reddish dolostones in the upper Carrancas Formation have δ¹³C values ranging from +7.1 to +9.6‰, which is a unique C isotopic composition for the lowermost Bambuí Group but similar to values found in the Tijucuçu sequence, a pre-glacial unit in the Araçuaí fold belt on the eastern margin of the São Francisco craton. The stratigraphic position below basal Ediacaran cap carbonates and the highly positive δ¹³C values together indicate a Cryogenian interglacial age for the Carrancas Formation, with the high δ¹³C values representing the so-called Keele peak, which precedes the pre-Marinoan Trezona negative δ¹³C excursion in other well characterized Cryogenian sequences. Hence, The Carrancas Formation pre-dates de Marinoan Jequitaí Formation and represents an interval of Cryogenian stratigraphy not previously known to occur on the southern margin of São Francicso craton. Documentation of Cryogenian interglacial strata on the São Francisco craton reinforces recent revisions to the age of Bambuí Group strata and has implications for the development of the Bambuí basin.  相似文献   

基于峰值因子最大化的鬼波压制方法     

叶林  韩立国  李洪建  张威  李宇  于晨霞 《世界地质》2016,35(4):1101-1108

针对传统拖缆采集得到的海上地震资料受鬼波影响而导致频带宽度变窄,笔者提出一种去鬼波方法,可以压制鬼波效应,拓宽频带。首先在频率-空间域推导出镜像数据生成公式,并基于峰值因子最大化的参数搜索方法来估计最优的鬼波延迟时间,将最优的鬼波延迟时代入镜像记录生成公式,获得最优的镜像记录,利用联合反褶积算法得到最优的去鬼波结果。将本文中的方法应用于模拟的变深度采集数据和海上实测的变深度采集数据,证实该方法可以有效地压制鬼波,消除频谱中的陷波点,得到宽频数据。  相似文献   

基于模型试验的泥石流坡面物源启动预警模型          下载免费PDF全文

乔建平  李明俐  杨宗佶  孟华君  姜元俊 《水科学进展》2018,29(1):64-72

为进一步探明银洞子沟物源区坡面物源启动机理与降雨的相关性,在进行详细的现场考察与工程勘察工作后选取了典型模型体,并采用20余组人工降雨物理试验方法将降雨强度与坡度设为控制变量,研究了4种坡形、5种雨强条件下,坡面松散物源的失稳机制及破坏模式。试验结果揭示了地表变形与地下物理力学参数变化的定量响应关系,并基于试验发生破坏的临界雨量,建立了银洞子沟传统I-D预警模型。之后提炼可靠预警参数(坡度、深部体积含水率),通过数学回归分析方法并采用Exponential模型,得出IGD、IGM多参数新型预警判别式,实现了传统I-D模型的有效修正,并具一定的可靠性和实用价值。  相似文献   

A Study of the Extended-range Forecast for the Low Frequency Temperature and High Temperature Weather over the Lower Reaches of Yangtze River Valley in Summer     

Qiuming Yang 《地球科学进展》2018,33(4):385-395

Based on the observational data, the variations of Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO) of the daily temperatures and its relationships to the high temperature in summer over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (LYRV) were studied for the period of 1979-2011. It is found that the daily temperatures over LYRV in May-August was mainly of periodic oscillations of 1525, 3060 and 6070 days, and the interannual variation of the intensity of its 3060-day oscillation had a strongly positive correlation with the number of days with daily highest temperature over 35 ℃ in July-August. Low frequency components of daily temperature in the LYRV, and the principal components of the Eastern Asian 850 hPa low frequency temperature, over a time period ranging from 1979 to 2000, were used to establish the Extended Complex Autoregressive model (ECAR) on an extended-range forecast of the 3060-day low frequency temperature over the LYRV. A 11-year independent real-time extended-range forecast was conducted on the extended-range forecast of low frequency component of the temperature over the LYRV in May-August, for the period ranging from 2001 to 2011. These experimental results show that this ECAR model, which is based on a data-driven model, has a good forecast skill at the lead time of approximately 23 days, with a forecast ability superior to the traditional autoregressive (AR) model. Hence, the development and variation of the leading 3060-day modes for the Eastern Asian 850 hPa low frequency temperatures and temporal evolutions of their relationships to low frequency components of the temperature over the LYRV in summer are very helpful in predicting the persistent high temperature over the LYRV at a 20 to 25 days lead.  相似文献   

Objective Analysis on Large-scale Circulation Type and Its Links to Precipitation over China     

Liang Chen  Jianping Duan  Zhuguo Ma 《地球科学进展》2018,33(4):396-403

Atmospheric circulation anomaly is a direct cause of weather and climate change. In the past, most researches for the relationship between Weather Type (WT) and precipitation have mainly focused on the subjective classification and diagnosis. Compared to the subjective analysis, objective classification uses more consistent index and standard unification, thus, we can get more WTs, and it has been widely used in many areas. By using daily 12UTC Sea Level Pressure (SLP), Precipitable Water (PW), and 700 hPa wind speed (UV700) data from ECMWF’s Interim Reanalysis, the classification of WTs over China was performed with the method of obliquely rotated T-mode principle component analysis. WT and its link to precipitation over China were further analyzed. The results show that the influence of different WTs on precipitation is not uniform over China, and also show distinctly difference in different seasons. A common feature is that WTs great impact on the regions and months with large precipitation, while less impact on regions and months have with less precipitation. In addition, precipitation trends originating from WT intensity changes are much more deterministic, significant, and predictable than trends from WT frequency changes.  相似文献