台风与冷空气对“13.10”上海特大暴雨过程的影响分析     

曹晓岗  王慧  漆梁波 《湖北气象》2014,(4):351-362

2013年10月7—8日上海地区发生特大暴雨过程。利用常规天气资料、FY-2E卫星云图、风廓线雷达资料、NCEP再分析资料以及国内所使用的主要业务模式预报资料,分析台风与冷空气对其发生发展的影响。结果表明,登陆减弱的1323号台风＂菲特＂低压环流与1324号台风＂丹娜丝＂北侧外围强东风急流为该过程强降水区提供了充足的水汽和能量;北方扩散南下冷空气、台风低压环流、＂丹娜丝＂北侧外围强东风急流三者的结合使切变辐合抬升得到加强;分析风廓线雷达资料发现,低层切变线在上海长时间维持是该地产生特大暴雨的主要原因;长时间维持的切变线反映在卫星云图上,为先后5个β中尺度对流云团生成、合并,并造成持续强降水。各业务模式预报结果检验表明,因其不能精确描述各台风的位置、强度和结构,对降水落区、强度以及最强降水时段预报均存在较大误差。对于模式预报误差,要重视实时资料的应用,尤其是组网风廓线雷达资料可作为大暴雨短时预警的重要参考依据。  相似文献   

ANALYSIS OF CAUSATION OF ASYMMETRIC PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE TYPHOON DAMREY     

许向春  于玉斌  王式功  李勋 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2014,20(4):323-333

Severe typhoon Damrey moved across Hainan Island from 00:00 UTC 25 September to 00:00 UTC 27 September in 2005 and gave rise to a significant rain process during its 48-h passage. The precipitation intensity on the southern part of the island is stronger than that on the northern, showing obvious asymmetric distribution. Using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data, the associated mesoscale characteristics of the precipitation were analyzed and the formation of asymmetric rainfall distribution was investigated in the context of a subsynoptic scale disturbance, vertical wind shear and orographic factors. The results are shown as follows. (1) The subsynoptic scale system provided favorable dynamic conditions to the genesis of mesoscale rain clusters and rainbands. (2) The southern Hainan Island was located to the left of the leeward direction of downshear all the time, being favorable to the development of convection and leading to the asymmetric rainfall distribution. (3) Mountain terrain in the southern Hainan Island stimulated the genesis, combination and development of convective cells, promoting the formation of mesoscale precipitation systems and ultimately resulting in rainfall increase in the southern island.  相似文献   

超强台风“威马逊”与“达维”进入北部湾强度变化对比分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

陈见  孙红梅  高安宁  林宗桂  黄明策 《湖北气象》2014,(4):392-400

利用常规气象资料、NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料,采用天气学诊断分析方法,对超强台风＂威马逊＂（1409）和＂达维＂（0518）登陆进入北部湾前后强度变化特征差异进行对比分析,结果表明：（1）500 h Pa副高快速加强,850 h Pa季风急流和越赤道气流汇合卷入到台风环流中,台风移向的下游区域高低空（200—850 h Pa）垂直风切变小,南海北部海温偏高等是＂威马逊＂和＂达维＂登陆海南岛前在近海突然加强的有利条件。（2）从琼州海峡进入北部湾,摩擦消耗小,是＂威马逊＂进入北部湾后,强度下降小,仍维持超强台风级别的主要原因;而从海南岛中部西移进入北部湾,摩擦消耗大,是＂达维＂进入北部湾后,强度下降大,从超强台风降为台风级别的主要原因。（3）动能收支诊断分析显示,地形摩擦对动能的耗散主要集中在边界层内（800 h Pa以下）,＂威马逊＂在超强台风阶段耗散作用最大,进入北部湾之后摩擦耗散减小,而＂达维＂则因横穿海南岛进入北部湾动能的摩擦耗散较大。  相似文献   

江苏一次突发暴雨的数值模拟     

张钊扬  钱贞成  王春明 《气象与环境科学》2014,37(3):67-75

采用中尺度WRF模式（WRF3．4）和WRF-3DVAR系统,同化GTS常规观测资料和GPS反演的探空廓线资料,对2012年8月10日发生在江苏东北部地区的一次突发性特大暴雨进行数值模拟,并利用高分辨率的模式输出数据对此次暴雨过程进行多尺度分析和对流不稳定性研究。结果表明：模拟结果较好地再现了此次过程;台风低压和中纬度槽脊系统相互作用,中低层弱冷空气扩散和高、低空急流耦合为此次暴雨过程提供了有利的大尺度背景;地面中尺度辐合线和迅速发展的β中尺度对流系统（M8CS）是直接导致此次局地突发性暴雨的中尺度系统,地面中尺度辐合线的位置和暴雨的落区基本一致,M8CS的强烈发展对应于暴雨的最强阶段;暴雨发生前和暴雨发生时,对流系统中等日。线密集而陡峭,不稳定能量的突然性释放造成αθ／Oz迅速减小,口。垂直剖面呈伸向低空的“漏斗状”分布,有利于垂直涡度和对流不稳定发展。  相似文献   

满足实时导航应用的路径规划算法研究     

陈涛  翟京生  郭建忠  姚霄飞 《测绘与空间地理信息》2014,(9):10-13

主要针对当前嵌入式导航应用中路径规划计算存在的问题,设计了一种满足实时导航应用基于转换路网的分层搜索A*算法。该算法对于大区域的路径规划采用分层搜索策略,路径计算时采用能够处理交叉口转向限制和结点权重,并且占用存储空间小,搜索速度快的基于转换路网的二次搜索A*算法。通过实际的应用表明,算法在计算速度、路径合理性等方面可以满足实时导航应用的技术需求。  相似文献   

Modified parameterization for near-inertial waves     

Weiqi Hong  Lei Zhou  Xiaohui Xie  Han Zhang  Changrong Liang 《海洋学报(英文版)》2022,41(10):41-53

The near-inertial waves (NIWs) are important for energy cascade in the ocean. They are usually significantly reinforced by strong winds, such as typhoon. Due to relatively coarse resolutions in contemporary climate models, NIWs and associated ocean mixing need to be parameterized. In this study, a parameterization for NIWs proposed by Jochum in 2013 (J13 scheme), which has been widely used, is compared with the observations in the South China Sea, and the observations are treated as model outputs. Under normal conditions, the J13 scheme performs well. However, there are noticeable discrepancies between the J13 scheme and observations during typhoon. During Typhoon Kalmaegi in 2014, the inferred value of the boundary layer is deeper in the J13 scheme due to the weak near-inertial velocity shear in the vertical. After typhoon, the spreading of NIWs beneath the upper boundary layer is much faster than the theoretical prediction of inertial gravity waves, and this fast process is not rendered well by the J13 scheme. In addition, below the boundary layer, NIWs and associated diapycnal mixing last longer than the direct impacts of typhoon on the sea surface. Since the energy dissipation and diapycnal mixing below the boundary layer are bounded to the surface winds in the J13 scheme, the prolonged influences of typhoon via NIWs in the ocean interior are missing in this scheme. Based on current examination, modifications to the J13 scheme are proposed, and the modified version can reduce the discrepancies in the temporal and vertical structures of diapycnal mixing.  相似文献   

基于加速鲁棒特征图像匹配的云导风计算方法     

孔德华  张东  张卓  宋志尧 《海洋科学》2022,46(9):64-76

利用云导风技术结合高分辨率气象卫星遥感数据获取风矢量,在监测台风等极端气象灾害方面具有重要应用。本文提出了一种基于加速鲁棒特征(speeded up robust features,SURF)图像匹配的云导风计算方法,利用SURF算法结合随机抽样一致算法(random sample consensus,RANSAC),提取并匹配两景连续时序云图的特征点,计算风矢量,并结合当地大气温度廓线指定云高,经质量控制得到云导风矢量。运用该方法模拟了2018年台风“山竹”的云导风矢量,以美国威斯康星大学气象卫星研究合作所(CIMSS)的大气运动矢量资料进行验证,结果表明:(1)风速和风向的相关系数分别为0.78和0.79,均方根误差分别为4.75 m·s^–1和37.64°,平均绝对百分比误差分别为33.49%和22.55%,整体具有良好的模拟精度;(2)与CIMSS资料相比,基于特征点匹配的SURF云导风计算方法在反演密集云区的风矢量有明显优势,可有效提高云区内风矢量的数量,扩大风矢量的空间覆盖范围;(3)图像对比度增强处理对特征点的提取和风矢量的空间分布有重要影响,伽马变换因子γ=5时,能较好地平衡台风外围螺旋云带和中心附近云区的风矢量数量,反映台风风场的整体特征。该方法作为基于尺度不变特征变换的云导风计算方法的改进,可为利用卫星遥感影像数据进行云导风计算提供新的思路。  相似文献   

WRF大气模式与台风经验模型在超强台风“山竹”过程重构中的比较分析     

李心雨  杨昀  李自如  王惠群  管卫兵  何杰 《海洋工程》2022,40(4):53-64,111

通过中尺度气象研究与预报模式WRF（weather research and forecasting）和两种台风经验模型重构了2018年影响我国珠江口地区的超强台风“山竹”过程中的气压和风矢量场,在台风最佳路径数据的基础上开展了方法间的比较,并与香港、澳门和深圳三个国际机场的实测数据进行了对比分析,验证了三种模拟方案模拟台风“山竹”的可靠性。利用非结构网格半隐式跨尺度海洋模式SCHISM （semi-implicit cross-scale hydroscience integrated system model）,将三种模拟气压和风场作为驱动场输入风暴潮模式中进行增水模拟试验,比较了它们在赤湾、三灶、横门和黄埔四个测站风暴潮增水中各自的效果,并进一步验证了WRF模式和两种经验模型模拟台风“山竹”的有效性。综合来看, WRF大气模式对气压、风速、风向及风暴增水模拟效果最佳,如果进一步优化该模式的各种参数化方案,可能还能提高其精度。如果不具备使用WRF大气模式的条件,台风经验1模型也是一个完全可以接受的、简单快捷的方案。  相似文献   

热带气旋尺度和结构的影响因子和理论探索          下载免费PDF全文

林岩銮  王丹阳 《海洋科学进展》2022,40(4):742-754

热带气旋是地球上最主要的自然灾害之一,其结构和尺度不仅直接影响其致灾范围,还间接影响其强度和移动路径。对热带气旋结构和尺度的科学认识有助于其强度和路径预报能力的提高,本身也是重要的科学问题。热带气旋的尺度通常用最大风速半径和外围半径刻画,而结构通常指最大风速半径和外围半径的相对大小。自然界中热带气旋的尺度和结构可以有很大的差异,在其发展过程中尺度和结构也可以发生明显的变化,从而影响强度和路径。本文从观测、模拟和理论三方面简要回顾了热带气旋结构和尺度方面的相关研究,重点介绍了Emanuel-Rotunno台风结构模型的理论推导,并展望了未来可能的研究方向和思路。  相似文献   

Propagating radial waves of travel cost in a grid     

Dana Tomlin 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(9):1391-1413

To calculate the minimum cost of travel to each location within a geographical area from a specified set of locations, most geographic information systems represent that area as a rectangular grid of discrete cells, each indicating the cost of traversing that cell's particular location. These increments of cost are then accumulated by proceeding from cell to adjacent cell in a manner that resembles the propagation of waves. Because this propagation is limited to the eight directions associated with each cell's eight neighbors, however, it is often misdirected, and travel costs are therefore often overestimated. This article discusses the context, precedent, design, implementation, performance, and implications of a new algorithm that eliminates such problems in a straightforward manner. It does so by retaining the octangular propagation mechanism of earlier algorithms while keeping track of the particular locations at which propagated waves of accumulating travel cost either refract or diffract. The approach also holds promise for significant improvement in areas ranging from dispersion modeling and shape analysis to interpolation and the delineation of cost-minimizing paths.  相似文献