An operational multiscale system for hazards prediction, mapping, and response     

David P. Bacon  Nash’at N. Ahmad  Thomas J. Dunn  Michael C. Monteith  Ananthakrishna Sarma 《Natural Hazards》2008,44(3):317-327

By definition, a crisis is a situation that requires assistance to be managed. Hence, response to a crisis involves the merging of local and non-local emergency response personnel. In this situation, it is critical that each participant: (1) know the roles and responsibilities of each of the other participants; (2) know the capabilities of each of the participants; and (3) have a common basis for action. For many types of natural disasters, this entails having a common operational picture of the unfolding events, including detailed information on the weather, both current and forecasted, that may impact on either the emergency itself or on response activities. The Consequences Assessment Tool Set (CATS) is a comprehensive package of hazard prediction models and casualty and damage assessment tools that provides a linkage between a modeled or observed effect and the attendant consequences for populations, infrastructure, and resources, and, hence, provides the common operational picture for emergency response. The Operational Multiscale Environment model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA) is an atmospheric simulation system that links the latest methods in computational fluid dynamics and high-resolution gridding technologies with numerical weather prediction to provide specific weather analysis and forecast capability that can be merged into the geographic information system framework of CATS. This paper documents the problem of emergency response as an end-to-end system and presents the integrated CATS–OMEGA system as a prototype of such a system that has been used successfully in a number of different situations.  相似文献   

干旱生态环境及水资源对全球气候变暖响应的研究进展   总被引：7，自引：5，他引：2  

邓振镛  张强  辛吉武  赵鸿  王全福  王鹤龄 《冰川冻土》2008,30(1):57-63

西北地区现代气候变化基本特征是冬暖夏干,采用脆弱度和影响指数方法定量评价了生态环境对全球气候变暖响应,重点阐述了西北现代气候变化对干旱生态环境和水资源这两个领域的影响.结果表明: 由于现代气候变干变暖的自然和人为因素的共同作用,导致我国西北地区的黄土高原、黑河流域、石羊河流域、甘南高原和黄河首曲的地域生态环境有不断退化的趋势.气候变干使渭河上游、黄河上游(洮河和大夏河)以及黄土高原中部7条主要河流的径流量呈明显下降趋势,引起水资源短缺.  相似文献   

Nonlinear Analysis of Local Site Effects on Seismic Ground Response in the Bam Earthquake   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

M. H. T. Rayhani  M. H. El Naggar  S. H. Tabatabaei 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2008,26(1):91-100

The influence of local geologic and soil conditions on the intensity of ground shaking is addressed in this study. The amplification of the ground motion due to local site effects resulted in severe damage to dwellings in the Bam area during the 2003 Bam Earthquake. A unique set of strong motion acceleration recordings was obtained at the Bam accelerograph station. Although the highest peak ground acceleration recorded was the vertical component (nearly 1 g), the longitudinal component (fault-parallel motion) clearly had the largest maximum velocity as well as maximum ground displacement. Subsurface geotechnical and geophysical (down-hole) data in two different sites have been obtained and used to estimate the local site condition on earthquake ground motion in the area. The ground response analyses have been conducted considering the nonlinear behavior of the soil deposits using both equivalent linear and nonlinear approaches. The fully nonlinear method embodied in FLAC was used to evaluate the nonlinear soil properties on earthquake wave propagation through the soil layer, and compare with the response from the equivalent linear approach. It is shown that thick alluvium deposits amplified the ground motion and resulted in significant damage in residential buildings in the earthquake stricken region. The comparison of results indicated similar response spectra of the motions for both equivalent and nonlinear analyses, showing peaks in the period range of 0.3–1.5 s. However, the amplification levels of nonlinear analysis were less than the equivalent linear method especially in long periods. The observed response spectra are shown to be above the NEHRP building code design requirements, especially at high frequencies.  相似文献   

气候变化对塔里木河来自天山的地表径流影响   总被引：21，自引：10，他引：11  

高前兆  王润  Ernst GIESE 《冰川冻土》2008,30(1):1-11

塔里木河水资源主要来自天山南坡两条源流,选择西段阿克苏河和中段开都河-孔雀河作为研究区.1956-2003年研究河源山区气温呈持续升温且降水波动增加的趋势,其中1995-2003年升温强劲,升温速率高出48 a期间平均的3倍以上;降水自1986年后持续增加,20世纪90年代较80年代增幅达18%,并显示出河源山区湿岛向塔里木盆地扩展.因高山缺少气象观测,出山径流过程变化可以综合反映中高山带的气候变化.塔里木河来自天山的地表径流在1986-2003年间持续增长,以冰川融水补给为主的库玛拉克河,1994年以来年径流量增加已在前期平均值基础上提升了一个台阶;开都河以降水径流补给为主,1986-2002年出现了观测记录以来的丰水期,并使1986年后博斯腾湖水位快速上升,恢复到1958年记录的最高水位以上.两河年径流变化趋势基本相似,但也显示有西、中段的气候变化局部差异,出现丰枯水期的不一致;然而,在近16 a升温过程中,年径流增长幅度和快慢相近.  相似文献   

海拉尔盆地贝西斜坡北部地区储层特征及影响因素分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

李占东  周件林  文华  孙娜 《岩石矿物学杂志》2008,27(1):45-51

通过测井曲线的标准化处理及信息提取、岩心及录井岩屑观察、铸体薄片、物性分析、扫描电镜、压汞分析等技术手段,研究了海拉尔盆地贝西斜坡北部地区南屯组储层的主要岩性特征、物性特征、储集空间类型和影响因素.研究结果表明.海拉尔盆地南屯组以内陆湖相碎屑岩为主,主要包括角砾岩、砾岩、砂砾岩、粗砂岩、细砂岩、粉砂岩、泥质砂岩及泥岩等.南一段储层孔隙度平均值为6.15%,渗透率平均值为0.31 × 10-3μm2,为低孔特低渗型孔隙特征;南二段储层孔隙度平均值为12.18%,渗透率平均值为2.79× 10-3μm2,属于中孔低渗型孔隙特征.储集空间类型以粒间孔隙为主,发育一定的次生孔隙.喉道分为4种类型(Ⅰ类、Ⅱ类、Ⅲ类、Ⅳ类).扇三角洲前缘分支水道砂体、扇三角洲平原辫状河道砂体和滨浅湖砂坝微相砂体为该区有利的储层砂体类型.储层性质主要受沉积相和成岩作用影响.  相似文献   

Numerical and experimental study on hydrodynamic interaction of side-by-side moored multiple vessels   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

S.Y. Hong  J.H. Kim  S.K. Cho  Y.R. Choi  Y.S. Kim 《Ocean Engineering》2005,32(7):783-801

This paper aims to investigate the basic interaction characteristics of side-by-side moored vessels both numerically and experimentally. A higher-order boundary element method (HOBEM) combined with generalized mode approach is applied to analysis of motion and drift force of side-by-side moored multiple vessels (LNG FPSO, LNGC and shuttle tankers). Model tests were carried out for the same floating bodies investigated in the numerical study in regular and irregular waves. Global and local motion responses and drift forces of three vessels are compared with those of calculations. Discussions is highlighted on applicability of numerical method to prediction of sophisticated multi-body interaction problem of which motion behavior is very important to analysis of mooring dynamics of deep sea floating bodies.  相似文献   

Synthetic echograms generated from the relative frequency response   总被引：1，自引：3，他引：1  

Korneliussen  Rolf J; Ona  Egil 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2003,60(3):636-640

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Functional responses for zooplankton feeding on multiple resources: a review of assumptions and biological dynamics     

Wendy Gentleman  Andrew Leising  Bruce Frost  Suzanne Strom  James Murray 《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》2003,50(22-26):2847

Modelers often need to quantify the rates at which zooplankton consume a variety of species, size classes and trophic types. Implicit in the equations used to describe the multiple resource functional response (i.e. how nutritional intake varies with resource densities) are assumptions that are not often stated, let alone tested. This is problematic because models are sensitive to the details of these formulations. Here, we enable modelers to make more informed decisions by providing them with a new framework for considering zooplankton feeding on multiple resources. We define a new classification of multiple resource responses that is based on preference, selection and switching, and we develop a set of mathematical diagnostics that elucidate model assumptions. We use these tools to evaluate the assumptions and biological dynamics inherent in published multiple resource responses. These models are shown to simulate different resource preferences, implied single resource responses, changes in intake with changing resource densities, nutritional benefits of generalism, and nutritional costs of selection. Certain formulations are further shown to exhibit anomalous dynamics such as negative switching and sub-optimal feeding. Such varied responses can have vastly different ecological consequences for both zooplankton and their resources; inappropriate choices may incorrectly quantify biologically-mediated fluxes and predict spurious dynamics. We discuss how our classes and diagnostics can help constrain parameters, interpret behaviors, and identify limitations to a formulation's applicability for both regional (e.g. High-Nitrate-Low-Chlorophyll regions comprising large areas of the Pacific) and large-scale applications (e.g. global biogeochemical or climate change models). Strategies for assessing uncertainty and for using the mathematics to guide future experimental investigations are also discussed.  相似文献   

黄河三角洲造陆速率对夏季风强度变化和人类活动的响应     

许炯心 《海洋学报》2007,29(5):88-94

以夏季风强度指数和年均气温作为反映气候变化的指数,以人类净引水量和流域水土保持面积作为反映人类活动变化的指标,并以黄河流域为例,研究了三角洲造陆对气候变化和人类活动的响应.研究表明,夏季风强度指数的变化可分为三个阶段:(1)在1951~1963年夏季风强度指数呈持续增强的变化趋势;(2)在1963~1965年夏季风强度指数呈突变式减弱;(3)在1966~2000年夏季风强度指数保持在较低的水平上,且呈缓慢减弱的趋势.年降水量变化与夏季风强度指数有同步关系.从1950到1970年的年均温度在波动中略呈降低趋势,然而从1970年开始年均温度在波动中具有持续上升的趋势.气候变化会导致入海泥沙通量的变化,并可能进一步导致三角洲造陆速率的变化.黄河三角洲造陆速率、入海泥沙通量在1952~1964年均呈增大的趋势,1964年后则呈减小的趋势,在总体上与夏季风强度指数的变化趋势相同.除了气候变化以外,流域水土保持和引水对三角洲造陆也有影响.多元回归分析表明,三角洲造陆速率随夏季风强度指数的减弱而减小,随年气温的升高而减小,随梯田林草面积的增加而减小,随年净引水量的增加而减小,同时还表明,夏季风强度指数、年均气温、水土保持措施面积和人类净引水量对三角洲造陆速率变化的贡献率分别为34.94%,3.80%,53.82%和7.44%.表示气候变化的两个变量的贡献率之和为38.7%,说明气候变化对黄河三角洲造陆过程的影响是不容忽视的.  相似文献   

Numerical Simulation of Dynamic Response of Supple Nets     

朱立新梁振林  黄六一赵芬芳 《中国海洋工程》2006,20(3):443-456

1 .Introduction Owing to the decline of capture fisheries andsaturation of traditional inshorefarms ,sea cage cul-ture as a newtype of aquaculture is developingrapidlyin China .However ,cage culture is a highriskoperation.The practice is vulnerable to natural hazards ,such as strong tides ,storms and typhoons .So,it is necessaryto assess the behavior of a sea cage exposedto waves and current before the designandinstallation of the structure . Computer simulation,due to its many advantages ,ha…  相似文献