台风凤凰形成发展过程中对流凝结潜热和感热的作用   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

刘裕禄  方祥生  金飞胜  方素青 《气象》2009,35(12):51-57

应用NCEP再分析资料,计算分析了台风凤凰发生和发展过程中的积云对流潜热加热和海面感热通量.表明:感热释放通过海气相关作用使海面风及对流层涡度增强,可能是台风初始低压的形成机制;积云对流潜热释放不但使台风中心增暖并使台风中间层上升运动增强,从而促使台风加强和发展,因此,对流凝结潜热是台风凤凰维持和发展的主要热力和动力因子.  相似文献   

台风“桑美”的数值模拟和地形敏感性试验   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

马玉芬  沈桐立  丁治英  张广兴 《南京气象学院学报》2009,32(2):277-286

用WRF模式对0608号台风“桑美”进行了数值模拟研究,较为成功地模拟出了台风路径和降水,但模拟的台风中心气压远高于实况。为研究“桑美”登陆期间地形的抬升作用对其降水及结构的影响,通过改变特定区域内的地形高度设计了一组敏感性试验。结果表明,台风登陆过程中地形抬升作用对台风降雨量有显著的增幅作用;台风中心位势涡度、气流垂直上升速度、水平水汽通量散度明显增大;地形抬升机制在台风登陆时刻达到最强。  相似文献   

用SMAT建立台风暴雨预报模型的试验研究   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

李博  赵思雄 《气象》2009,35(6):3-12

台风暴雨的灾害性天气预报是科研与业务都特别关注的问题,因此其预报技术方法的研究显得尤为必要.采用综合多级相似预报技术(简记为SMAT),对"浙东南沿海"区域台风过程所引发的暴雨天气进行研究.该技术利用数值模拟结果对样本间的相似程度进行描述,同时将描述样本相似程度的物理量由单因子拓展为因子组合.通过对13年间历史资料的试验,得出了台风暴雨预报模型(SMAT-Ty-phoon).详细介绍了该模型的试验过程和试验结果,给出了重要试验数据参数.台风暴雨的相似试验结果显示,建模时的CSI(forecast successful index)高于0.7,且漏报率为0.在试报阶段,CSI也能保持在0.45以上.此外,台风暴雨预报模型的准确率(0.72)和漏报率(0.26)与业界同行相比,也具有一定优势.在引进数值产品和多因子求相似技术后,试验结果证明SMAT具有较强的平均预报能力,说明了所得到的台风暴雨预报模型是有优势的.最后,通过对试验的分析,得出了对当地台风暴雨发生可能起重要作用的一些物理量,对于这些指标,预报员在业务预报中应给予足够考虑;同时也给出了在做类似相似试验中关键区和相似因子选取时的一些建议.  相似文献   

地形对超强台风罗莎降水影响的初步分析   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2  

黄奕武  端义宏  余晖 《气象》2009,35(9):3-10

为了进一步加深地形对台风降水影响的细节了解,用变分法合成的高分辨率降水资料和地形资料,结合日本再分析资料,对0716号台风罗莎登陆期间地形对降水的影响作了初步分析.过程降水量与地形相关分析表明,沿海地形对降水的影响较大.强降水区主要分布在沿海山体的迎风坡上.分析1小时降水量在不同强度区间的频次分布,发现在山体地形的影响下,山脉区域降水加强.浙江东南沿岸的山体引起的降水增益相对东北沿岸区域的山体偏大.利用日本再分析资料和地形资料计算了气流过沿海山体时的无量纲数Fr值.由于气流Fr较小,气流过浙江沿海地形时更容易翻越山体.抬升位置发生在迎风坡上,因而强降水区也落在迎风坡上.东南沿岸区域的地形对迎风气流的强迫垂直运动在垂直方向上的渗透比东北沿岸区域更深厚,这是导致东南沿岸区域地形对降水增益比东北沿岸区域偏大的原因.  相似文献   

ANALYSIS OF RAINSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SIMILAR TRACK TROPICAL CYCLONES HAITANG (0505) AND BILLS (0604)     

YU Zhen-shou  CHEN Xuan-miao  NI Dong-hong  JI Chun-xiao  XIE Hai-hua 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2009,15(1)

It is generally thought that the influence of comparable track typhoons is approximately similar,but in fact their wind and especially their rainstorm distribution are often very different. Therefore,a contrastive analysis of rainstorms by tropical cyclones (TCs) Haitang (0505) and Bilis (0604),which are of a similar track,is designed to help understand the mechanism of the TC rainstorm and to improve forecasting skills. The daily rainthll of TC itaitang (0505) and Bills (0604) is diagnosed and compared.The result indicates that these two TCs have similar precipitation distribution before landtall but different precipitation characteristics after landthll. Using NCEP/GFS analysis data,the synoptic situation is analyzed; water vapor transportation is discussed regarding the calculated water vapor flux and divergence.The results show that the heavy rainfall in the Zhejiang and Fujian Provinces associated with Haitang (0505) and Bitis (0604) before landlhll results ti'om a peripheral easterly wind,a combination of the tropical cyclone and the terrain. After landthll and moving far inland of the storm,the precipitation of Haitang is caused by water vapor convergence carried by its own circulation; it is much weaker than that in the coastal area. One of the important contributing thctors to heavy rainstorms in southeast Zhejiang is a southeast jet stream,which is maintained over the southeast coast. In contrast,the South China Sea monsoon circulation transports large amounts of water vapor into Bills - when a water-vapor transport belt south of the tropical cyclone significantly strengthens - which strengthens the transport. Then,it causes water vapor flux to converge on the south side of Bilis and diverge on the north side. Precipitation is much stronger on the south side than that on the north side. After Bilis travels far inland,the cold air guided by a north trough travels into the TC and remarkably enhances precipitation. In summary,combining vertical wind shear with water vapor transportation is a good way to predict rainstorms associated with landing tropical cyclones.  相似文献   

DIAGNOSIS OF WAVE ACTIVITY OVER RAINBAND OF LANDFALL TYPHOON   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

冉令坤  阿布都尔·里赫姆  阿尔·拉马纳丹 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2009,15(2):121-129

A generalized wave-activity density, which is defined as an absolute value of production of three-dimensional vorticity vector perturbation and gradient of general potential temperature perturbation, is introduced and its wave-activity law is derived in Cartesian coordinates. Constructed in an agoestrophic and nonhydrostatic dynamical framework, the generalized wave-activity law may be applicable to diagnose mesoscale weather systems leading to heavy rainfall. The generalized wave-activity density and wave-activity flux divergence were calculated with the objective analysis data to investigate the character of wave activity over heavy-rainfall regions. The primary dynamical processes responsible for disturbance associated with heavy rainfall were also analyzed. It was shown that the generalized wave-activity density was closely correlated to the observed 6-h accumulative rainfall. This indicated that the wave activity or disturbance was evident over the frontal and landfall-typhoon heavy-rainfall regions in middle and lower troposphere. For the landfall-typhoon rainband, the portion of generalized wave-activity flux divergence, denoting the interaction between the basic-state cyclonic circulation of landfall typhoon and mesoscale waves, was the primary dynamic process responsible for the evolution of generalized wave-activity density.  相似文献   

CORRECTION OF ASYMMETRIC STRENGTHENING OF QUIKSCAT WIND FIELD AND ASSIMILATION APPLICATION IN TYPHOON SIMULATION   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

王亮  陆汉城  潘晓滨  张云 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2009,15(1):78-82

As an approach to the technological problem that the wind data of QuikSCAT scatterometer cannot accurately describe the zone of typhoon-level strong wind speed, some objective factors such as the typhoon moving speed, direction and friction are introduced in this study to construct the asymmetric strengthening of the QuikSCAT wind field. Then by adopting a technology of four-dimensional data assimilation, an experiment that includes both the assimilation and forecasting phases is designed to simulate Typhoon Rananim numerically. The results show that with model constraints and adjustment, this technology can incorporate the QuikSCAT wind data to the entire column of the model atmosphere, improve greatly the simulating effects of the whole-column wind, pressure field and the track as well as the simulated typhoon intensity covered by the forecast phase, and work positively for the forecasting of landfall locations.  相似文献   

THE THEORY OF MOIST POTENTIAL VORTICITY AND ITS APPLICATION IN THE DIAGNOSIS OF TYPHOON RAINFALL AND INTENSITY     

邓国  高守亭 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2009,15(2):204-209

This paper tests the impacts of cloud-induced mass forcing on the moist potential vorticity (MPV) anomaly associated with torrential rains caused by Typhoon No.9914 (Dan) by using fine model simulation data outputted by the Fifth-Generation NCAR / Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5). The diagnostic results show that the positive MPV anomaly region, which is obtained by integrating the MPV from 600 hPa to 300 hPa in the vertical, roughly coincides with the precipitation at their synchronous stages either in position or in the distribution pattern, and the maximum positive MPV area of Dan is located mainly between 600 hPa and 300 hPa, which is much higher than torrential rain cases. Further analyses also showed that the value of positive MPV anomaly increased or decreased with the development of Dan, and the positive MPV anomaly may also be served as a tracer to indicate the evolution of tropical cyclone intensity.  相似文献   

利用一个海气耦合模式对台风Krovanh的模拟   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  

蒋小平  刘春霞  齐义泉 《大气科学》2009,33(1):99-108

采用中尺度大气模式MM5和区域海洋模式POM构造了中尺度海气耦合模式, 模拟了Krovanh (0312) 台风过程中台风－海洋相互作用, 分析了台风引起的海面降温影响台风强度的机制和海洋对台风响应的特征。试验结果显示: 考虑台风引起的海面降温使台风强度模拟有了较大改进, 模拟的台风中心气压和近中心最大风速均与实况较符合。POM模拟的海表面温度与TRMM/TMI观测的海表面温度也较为一致, 台风Krovanh在其路径右侧95 km处引起较大的海面降温, 最大降温幅度达5.8℃。与海表面温度降低相对应的是混合层深度的增加, 较大的海面降温对应较大的混合层加深, 表明大风夹卷在海表面温度的降低中起主要作用。分析表明, 台风引起的海面降温降低海洋向大气输送的潜热通量和感热通量, 特别是在台风内核区, 平均总热通量减少了32.1%。热通量的减少使得湿静力能及湿静力能径向梯度减小, 削弱了台风强度。  相似文献   

“黄蜂”边界层风速分析—— 台风平均风速的时距选取与强度估计   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

蔡凝昊  宋金杰  赵坤  宋丽莉 《气象科学》2009,29(4):461-466

通过对热带风暴(TC)"黄蜂"登陆的一次边界层观测所得到风速资料的分析计算,取得不同时距下平均风速序列.比较不同时距选取时登陆TC的平均风速、风向和台风强度,发现1 min平均比10 min平均水平最大风速大25.30%,风向变化不大,TC强度指数1 min与10 min相差2%～4%.时距选取较小时,TC平均风速和强度变大,所测得风速区域也变大,而风向与时距的选取没有明显关系.只是在阵风变化比较大的情况下选取小的时距可以更好的表示这种特征.所以时距选取需要对所研究问题的需要进行分析,对不同的问题选取不同的时距以得到更好的结果.  相似文献