Surface air temperature changes over the Tibetan Plateau: Historical evaluation and future projection based on CMIP6 models     

《地学前缘(英文版)》2022,13(6):101452

With its amplification simultaneously emerging in cryospheric regions, especially in the Tibetan Plateau, global warming is undoubtedly occurring. In this study, we utilized 28 global climate models to assess model performance regarding surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau from 1961 to 2014, reported spatiotemporal variability in surface air temperature in the future under four scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), and further quantified the timing of warming levels (1.5, 2, and 3 °C) in the region. The results show that the multimodel ensemble means depicted the spatiotemporal patterns of surface air temperature for the past decades well, although with differences across individual models. The projected surface air temperature, by 2099, would warm by 1.9, 3.2, 5.2, and 6.3 °C relative to the reference period (1981–2010), with increasing rates of 0.11, 0.31, 0.53, and 0.70 °C/decade under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the period 2015–2099, respectively. Compared with the preindustrial periods (1850–1900), the mean annual surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau has hit the 1.5 °C threshold and will break 2 °C in the next decade, but there is still a chance to limit the temperature below 3 °C in this century. Our study provides a new understanding of climate warming in high mountain areas and implies the urgent need to achieve carbon neutrality.  相似文献   

基于CMIP6模式的黄河上游地区未来气温模拟预估     

李纯  姜彤  王艳君  缪丽娟  李溯源  陈梓延  吕嫣冉 《冰川冻土》2022,44(1):171-178

利用第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）提供的5个气候模式,并结合基于地面气象站的CN05.1气象资料,评估了CMIP6模式对黄河上游地区1961—2014年气温变化的模拟能力。基于7个共享社会经济路径及代表性浓度路径（SSP-RCP）组合情景,结合多模式集合平均预估了2015—2100年黄河上游地区年均气温和季平均气温的时空变化规律。结果表明：多模式集合平均能较好地模拟黄河上游地区历史平均气温的空间分布格局与年变化。7个未来情景一致表明,2015—2100年黄河上游地区年平均气温呈现波动上升趋势［0.03～0.82 ℃?（10a）^-1］。其中,低辐射强迫情景下（SSP1-1.9、SSP1-2.6及SSP4-3.4）气温先呈现增加趋势,21世纪中期到达增幅峰值,之后增温呈现放缓趋势;而中、高辐射强迫情景下（SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0、SSP4-6.0及SSP5-8.5）气温表现为持续上升态势。空间上,未来气温增幅显著的区域位于黄河上游西部地区;时间上,呈现夏季增温快,春季增温慢。四季增温的空间分布呈现出一致特征,表现为西部增温强于东部,北部增温强于南部。研究结果可为黄河流域水资源管理及气候变化的适应性研究提供科学依据。  相似文献   

The rapidly shrinking cryopshere in the past decade：an interpretation of cryospheric changes from IPCC WGI Sixth Assessment Report北大核心CSCD     

钟歆玥  康世昌  郭万钦  吴晓东  陈金雷 《冰川冻土》2022,44(3):946-953

The Working Group I report of the Sixth Assessment Report（AR6）of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change（IPCC）was released in August 2021. Base on updated and expanding data, AR6 presented the improved assessment of past changes and processes of cryosphere. AR6 also predicted the future changes us⁃ ing the models in CMIP6. The components of cryosphere were rapid shrinking under climate warming in the last decade. There were decreasing trends in Arctic sea-ice area and thickness. Sea-ice loss was significant. The Greenland Ice Sheet, the Antarctic Ice Sheet and all glaciers lost more mass than in any other decade. Global warming over the last decades had led to widespread permafrost warming, active layer thickness increasing and subsea permafrost extent reducing. Snow cover extent in the Northern Hemisphere also decreased significantly. However, the variations of snow depth and snow water equivalent showed great spatial heterogeneity. The rapid shrinking of the cryosphere accelerated the global mean sea level rise. The impact of human activities on cryo⁃ sphere will become more significant in the future. The Arctic sea-ice area will decrease, and the Arctic Ocean will likely become practically sea ice-free. The Greenland Ice Sheet, the Antarctic Ice Sheet and glaciers will continue to lose mass throughout this century. Permafrost and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent will con⁃ tinue to decrease as global climate continues to warm. In addition, there are still uncertainties in the prediction of cryosphere due to the absence of observations, the poor sensitivity of models to the components and processes of cryosphere, and the inexplicit represent of the mechanism of light-absorbing impurities. More attentions should be paid on these issues in the future. © 2022 Science Press (China). All rights reserved.  相似文献   

温度、浓度对流体中氟钛络合物水解的影响:对深部地质过程中钛元素活动的制约   总被引：6，自引：3，他引：3  

何俊杰  丁兴  王玉荣  孙卫东  傅斌 《岩石学报》2015,31(3):802-810

Ti是自然界中丰度最高的高场强元素(HFSE),其主要赋存矿物——金红石的溶解度决定了俯冲带HFSE的活动与循环。而富氟流体被认为是影响Ti等HFSE能否活化、迁移的重要因素。本文对不同浓度的氟钛络合物(K2Ti F6)在100MPa压力和200~500℃温度下的稳定性进行了研究,结果显示其在热液条件下发生显著水解,水解程度与温度和初始浓度密切相关,即温度越高、初始浓度越低,则水解程度越剧烈。对实验数据进行拟合,首次获得了K2Ti F6的表观水解常数与温度的关系式:-ln K=(8972±788)/T-(4.16428±1.40362),其中获得的热力学参数为:ΔrHΘ=74.59±6.55k J/mol,ΔrSΘ=34.62±11.67J/(mol·K)。同时,运用上述获得的关系式将温度推广到俯冲带条件,计算了金红石溶解度和流体中Ti的最大迁移量之间的关系。结果显示,当金红石的溶解度大于1000μg/m L时,富F流体能有效迁移的Ti大于1μg/m L;随着金红石溶解度的增加,Ti的有效迁移百分比也逐渐增大,但俯冲流体中Ti的最大迁移量可能不超过6700μg/m L,比之前的预计要低得多。本文的研究证实了富F流体能最大程度活化并迁移Ti等HFSE。其中,对于岩浆-热液体系而言,F主要通过在岩浆中预富集,然后再大量分配进入晚期流体中而形成富F流体;对于俯冲带而言,多硅白云母的脱水或热解是形成富F流体/超临界流体的有效途径。  相似文献   

沉淀-陈化-返溶作用和压力对热液中氟钛络合物高温水解的影响及地质意义   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

何俊杰  丁兴  王玉荣  孙卫东 《岩石学报》2015,31(7):1870-1878

钛是自然界中最不活泼的金属元素之一,然而越来越多的证据显示钛可以在特定条件下能进入热液流体中发生迁移,其中氟可能在其中扮演着重要的角色。本文研究了300℃和50~400MPa压力条件下氟钛络合物(K2Ti F6)的稳定性以及沉淀-陈化-返溶作用和压力对氟钛络合物水解行为的影响。研究结果显示,氟钛络合物水解的过程中,由于Ti O2沉淀物的陈化作用,在稳定的温度和压力条件下,沉淀物的返溶很难发生;但在缓慢降温和机械性振荡过程中,沉淀物的返溶会明显发生。而且,在温度不变的情况下,压力的改变对K2Ti F6水解并没有显著的影响,显示氟钛络合物不管在高压还是低压环境下均遵循近似的水解规律。本文认为主要的原因在于压力的增高会促进水解反应沉淀物的陈化,进而抑制沉淀物的返溶,但并不破坏水解反应的平衡。最后,本文提出金属络合物的形成-水解-沉淀/返溶-陈化过程是水-岩作用或热液成矿过程中高场强元素活化、迁移和成矿的主要机制。  相似文献   

CAS FGOALS-g3 Model Datasets for the CMIP6 Scenario Model Intercomparison Project(ScenarioMIP)     

Ye PU  Hongbo LIU  Ruojing YAN  Hao YANG  Kun XIA  Yiyuan LI  Li DONG  Lijuan LI  He WANG  Yan NIE  Mirong SONG  Jinbo XIE  Shuwen ZHAO  Kangjun CHEN  Bin WANG  Jianghao LI  Ling ZUO 《大气科学进展》2020,37(10):1081-1092

This paper describes the datasets from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project(ScenarioMIP) simulation experiments run with the Chinese Academy of Sciences Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model,GridPoint version 3(CAS FGOALS-g3). FGOALS-g3 is driven by eight shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs) with different sets of future emission, concentration, and land-use scenarios. All Tier 1 and 2 experiments were carried out and were initialized using historical runs. A branch run method was used for the ensemble simulations. Model outputs were three-hourly, six-hourly, daily, and/or monthly mean values for the primary variables of the four component models. An evaluation and analysis of the simulations is also presented. The present results are expected to aid research into future climate change and socio-economic development.  相似文献   

中国地球气候系统模式的发展及其模拟和预估   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

周天军  陈梓明  邹立维  陈晓龙  俞永强  王斌  包庆  鲍颖  曹剑  何编  胡帅  李立娟  李建  林岩銮  马利斌  乔方利  容新尧  宋振亚  唐彦丽  吴波  吴统文  辛晓歌  张贺  张明华 《气象学报》2020,78(3):332-350

地球气候系统模式是开展多学科、多圈层集成研究的重要平台,其发展是国际地学领域特别是全球变化领域竞争的前沿。中国的地球气候系统模式研发工作始于20世纪80年代,最近10年得到快速发展。研发格局上已经形成中国科学院、有关部委和高校三足鼎立的局面。文中在简要回顾中国地球气候系统模式早期发展历史的基础上,总结了中国参加第6次耦合模式比较计划的9个地球气候系统模式的技术特点,初步评估了中国4个模式对全球和东亚气候模拟的基本性能,分析了其在4种共享社会经济路径情景下对全球降水与温度的预估变化及其与平衡态气候敏感度的联系。最后,结合国际态势,从发展的角度提出未来中国气候模式研发工作需要加强的8个方向。   相似文献   

基于CMIP6强迫模拟分析人为气溶胶的气候效应(一)——介绍NUIST模式评估结果          下载免费PDF全文

史湘军  沈沛洁  朱寿鹏  吉璐莹  张海鹏  刘娇娇  陈伯民  李震坤 《大气科学学报》2020,43(3):506-515

为减少不同气候模式评估气溶胶气候效应的差异,第六次耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6,CMIP6)直接给定了人为气溶胶强迫数据。因此,有必要基于此强迫数据重新评估气溶胶气候效应。本研究首先将CMIP6给出的描述人为气溶胶强迫的模块引入南京信息工程大学(Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,NUIST)的地球系统模式(The NUIST Earth System Model,NESM)。之后,利用NESM模式评估地球辐射收支平衡对此人为气溶胶强迫的响应,并分析模式模拟结果的不确定性。评估给出的人为气溶胶有效辐射强迫为-0. 45(±0. 28) W·m~(-2)。其中,气溶胶直接辐射效应为-0. 34(±0. 01) W·m~(-2),与第二次气溶胶比较计划(The second phase of Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and M odels,Aero ComⅡ)的评估结果基本一致;气溶胶对云辐射强迫的影响(包括半直接效应和间接效应)为-0. 10(±0. 30) W·m~(-2),明显受到模式内部变率的干扰,具有较大的不确定性。  相似文献   

Weichselian sediments at Foss‐Eikeland,Jæren (southwest Norway): sea‐level changes and glaciation history     

S. Raunholm  E. Larsen  H. P Sejrup 《第四纪科学杂志》2002,17(3):241-260

The Jæren area in southwestern Norway has experienced great changes in sea‐levels and sedimentary environments during the Weichselian, and some of these changes are recorded at Foss‐Eikeland. Four diamictons interbedded with glaciomarine and glaciofluvial sediments are exposed in a large gravel pit situated above the post‐glacial marine limit. The interpretation of these sediments has implications for the history of both the inland ice and the Norwegian Channel Ice Stream. During a Middle Weichselian interstadial, a large glaciofluvial delta prograded into a shallow marine environment along the coast of Jæren. A minor glacial advance deposited a gravelly diamicton, and a glaciomarine diamicton was deposited during a following marine transgression. This subsequently was reworked by grounded ice, forming a well‐defined boulder pavement. The boulder pavement is followed by glaciomarine clay with a lower, laminated part and an upper part of sandy clay. The laminated clay probably was deposited under sea‐ice, whereas more open glaciomarine conditions prevailed during deposition of the upper part. The clay is intersected by clastic dykes protruding from the overlying, late Weichselian till. Preconsolidation values from the marine clay suggest an ice thickness of at least 500 m during the last glacial phase. The large variations in sea‐level probably are a combined effect of eustasy and glacio‐isostatic changes caused by an inland ice sheet and an ice stream in the Norwegian Channel. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The iron Kα lines as a tool for magnetic field estimations in non-flat accretion flows     

A.F. Zakharov  Z. Ma  Y. Bao 《New Astronomy》2004,9(8):663-677

Observations of AGNs and microquasars by ASCA, RXTE, Chandra and XMM-Newton indicate the existence of broad X-ray emission lines of ionized heavy elements in their spectra. Such spectral lines were discovered also in X-ray spectra of neutron stars and X-ray afterglows of GRBs. Recently, Zakharov et al. [MNRAS 342 (2003) 1325] described a procedure to estimate an upper limit of the magnetic fields in regions from which X-ray photons are emitted. The authors simulated typical profiles of the iron Kα line in the presence of magnetic field and compared them with observational data in the framework of the widely accepted accretion disk model. Here we further consider typical Zeeman splitting in the framework of a model of non-flat accretion flows, which is a generalization of previous consideration into non-equatorial plane motion of particles emitting X-ray photons. Using perspective facilities of space borne instruments (e.g., Constellation-X mission) a better resolution of the blue peak structure of iron Kα line will allow to evaluate the magnetic fields with higher accuracy.  相似文献