Reconstructing historic Glacial Lake Outburst Floods through numerical modelling and geomorphological assessment: Extreme events in the Himalaya          下载免费PDF全文

Matthew J. Westoby  Neil F. Glasser  Michael J. Hambrey  James Brasington  John M. Reynolds  Mohamed A. A. M. Hassan 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2014,39(12):1675-1692

Recession of high‐mountain glaciers in response to climatic change frequently results in the development of moraine‐dammed glacial lakes. Moraine dam failure is often accompanied by the release of large volumes of water and sediment, termed a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF). Chukhung Glacier is a small (~3 km²) receding valley glacier in Mt. Everest (Sagarmatha) National Park, Nepal. Unlike many Himalayan glaciers, which possess a thick mantle of supraglacial debris, its surface is relatively clean. The glacier terminus has receded 1.3 km from its maximum Holocene position, and in doing so provided the space for an ice‐contact moraine‐dammed lake to develop. The lake had a maximum volume of 5.5 × 10⁵ m³ and drained as a result of breaching of the terminal moraine. An estimated 1.3 × 10⁵ m³ of material was removed from the terminal moraine during breach development. Numerical dam‐breach modelling, implemented within a Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework, was used to investigate a range of moraine‐dam failure scenarios. Reconstructed outflow peak discharges, including failure via overtopping and piping mechanisms, are in the range 146–2200 m³ s^‐1. Results from two‐dimensional hydrodynamic GLOF modelling indicate that maximum local flow depths may have exceeded 9 m, with maximum flow velocities exceeding 20 m s^‐1 within 700 m of the breach. The floodwaters mobilised a significant amount of material, sourced mostly from the expanding breach, forming a 300 m long and 100 m wide debris fan originating at the breach exit. moraine‐dam. These results also suggest that inundation of the entire floodplain may have been achieved within ten minutes of initial breach development, suggesting that debris fan development was rapid. We discuss the key glaciological and geomorphological factors that have determined the evolution of a hazardous moraine‐dammed lake complex and the subsequent generation of a GLOF and its geomorphological impact. © 2014 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

抑制涡激振动的螺旋列板设计参数研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

沙勇  曹静  张恩勇  周巍伟  陈严飞 《海洋工程》2013,31(1):43-48

基于水池模型实验结果和工程设计经验,结合国内外试验数据,着重分析用于抑制海洋立管涡激振动的螺旋列板几何参数(鳍高和螺距)及覆盖率对立管涡激振动的影响;并对水动力直径和水动力系数的选取对预报涡激振动的影响进行了分析,进而提出了适合于海洋立管工程应用的螺旋列板几何和设计参数选取的建议,为螺旋列板工程应用、海洋立管强度和疲劳设计提供参考。  相似文献   

锚固岩石边坡地震稳定性拟动力分析     

阮晓波  孙树林  刘文亮 《岩土力学》2013,34(Z1):293-300

地震易发地区的锚固岩石边坡,需要研究其地震稳定性。对于锚固典型岩石边坡,在考虑水平与竖向地震力、张裂缝积水深度、坡顶超载、锚索倾角、锚索位置、锚索拉力及静水与动水压力等的条件下,运用拟静力和拟动力方法分别推导了不同工况条件下其抗滑和抗倾覆地震安全系数。分析表明,竖向向上地震力有利于锚固岩石边坡的抗滑稳定,而竖向下的地震力有利于锚固岩石边坡的抗倾覆稳定;在相同工况条件下,当岩体放大系数等于1.0时,拟动力与拟静力方法所得锚固岩石边坡地震安全系数相差无几,但是,当岩体放大系数逐渐增大时,拟动力方法所得地震安全系数越来越明显地小于拟静力方法所得地震安全系数。因此,在抗震设计当中适当的考虑岩体放大系数,将会有利于锚固岩石边坡的安全设计。  相似文献   

“威马逊”台风暴潮增水及水动力响应数值模拟     

黄潘阳  叶银灿  韦雁机  来向华 《海洋预报》2012,29(2):32-38

基于河口海岸水动力三维数值计算模型,建立浙江沿海天文潮与风暴潮耦合预报模式。利用该模式,对经过浙江沿海海域的台风"威马逊"进行数值计算,风暴潮增水计算结果与实测值符合较好,误差基本在±20 cm以内。计算增水值与传统的调和分析法所得的增水结果相比,也较为一致。进一步对局部水动力响应的研究发现,风暴潮期间,局部地区从底到表各层水流流速均急剧增大或减小,其值达到了与天文潮流同等的数量级。当水流流向与风向相同或相近时,流速增大,相反时,则流速减小。且台风期间,各层水流流向也随风向发生改变,流态变得更加复杂。  相似文献   

Vorticity budget study on the seasonal upper circulation in the northern South China Sea from altimetry data and a numerical model   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

CAI Shuqun  ZHENG Shu  HE Yinghui 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2012,11(4):455-464

Based on the EOF analyses of Absolute Dynamic Topography satellite data,it is found that,in summer,the northern South China Sea(SCS) is dominated by an anticyclonic gyre whilst by a cyclonic one in winter.A connected single-layer and two-layer model is employed here to investigate the dynamic mechanism of the circulation in the northern SCS.Numerical experiments show that the nonlinear term,the pressure torque and the planetary vorticity advection play important roles in the circulation of the northern SCS,whilst the contribution by seasonal wind stress curl is local and limited.Only a small part of the Kuroshio water intrudes into the SCS,it then induces a positive vorticity band extending southwestward from the west of the Luzon Strait(LS) and a negative vorticity band along the 200 m isobath of the northern basin.The positive vorticity field induced by the local summer wind stress curl is weaker than that induced in winter in the northern SCS.Besides the Kuroshio intrusion and monsoon,the water transports via the Sunda Shelf and the Sibutu Passage are also important to the circulation in the northern SCS,and the induced vorticity field in summer is almost contrary to that in winter.The strength variations of these three key factors(Kuroshio,monsoon and the water transports via the Sunda Shelf and the Sibutu Passage) determine the seasonal variations of the vorticity and eddy fields in the northern SCS.As for the water exchange via the LS,the Kuroshio intrusion brings about a net inflow into the SCS,and the monsoon has a less effect,whilst the water transports via the Sunda Shelf and the Sibutu Passage are the most important influencing factors,thus,the water exchange of the SCS with the Pacific via the LS changes dramatically from an outflow of the SCS in summer to an inflow into the SCS in winter.  相似文献   

Transient bifurcation condition of partially saturated porous media at finite strain   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Xiaoyu Song 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2017,41(1):135-156

Bifurcation of unsaturated soils into a localized shear band is a ubiquitous failure mode of partially saturated soils. The density and degree of saturation have major impacts on the inception of localized deformations in unsaturated soils. Unsaturated fluid flow may dramatically change the density and degree of fluid saturation of unsaturated soils. Therefore, the unsaturated fluid flow is a potential trigger for shear banding in such materials. In this paper, we derive a simplified bifurcation condition of localized deformation in unsaturated soils under the local transient condition at finite strain. This transient bifurcation condition is implemented into a nonlinear finite element code to study the inception of localized deformation in unsaturated soil specimens. Numerical simulations are conducted to study the impact of soil fabrics of density, a ‘bonding’ variable, and intrinsic permeability on the inception of localized failures via the transient bifurcation criterion. Mesh sensitivity analysis is performed to demonstrate the viscosity effect of unsaturated fluid flow on the localized deformation. Numerical simulations demonstrate that the transient bifurcation condition can detect the localized deformation triggered by the internal unsaturated fluid flow process in unsaturated soils. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于力学过程的蓄滞洪区洪水风险评估模型及应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

果鹏  夏军强  陈倩  李娜 《水科学进展》2017,28(6):858-867

为定量评估分蓄洪工程启用过程中蓄滞洪区的洪水风险等级,创建了基于力学过程的蓄滞洪区洪水风险评估模型。该模型采用二维水动力学模块计算蓄滞洪区的洪水演进过程,利用洪水中人体跌倒失稳公式及洪水中房屋、农作物损失的计算关系式,评估各类受淹对象的洪水风险等级。然后将二维水动力学模块计算的洪水要素与两个物理模型试验值进行对比,表明二维水动力学模块的计算精度良好。最后计算了荆江分洪工程启用时分洪区内洪水的演进过程,并评估洪灾中群众的危险等级和财产损失。计算结果表明:洪水演进至140 h时,蓄滞洪区群众、房屋、水稻和棉花的平均损失率分别为85%、59%、63%和72%。模型中提出的采用基于受淹对象失稳机制的洪水风险分析方法,比以往经验水深法划分风险等级的适用性更好,不仅能为洪水风险管理及蓄滞洪区启用标准制定提供参考,也能推广应用于溃坝或堰塞湖溃决等极端洪水风险评估。  相似文献   

出渗对均匀大粒径泥沙附近水动力特性影响          下载免费PDF全文

蒋昌波  刘洋  邓斌  刘易庄  陈家源 《水科学进展》2017,28(1):67-75

为探讨出渗对均匀大粒径泥沙颗粒周围水流特性的影响,基于粒子图像测速技术（PIV）对出渗影响下的均匀大粒径泥沙颗粒群周围水流结构进行测量,并对不同出渗强度下颗粒群周围立面二维流场结构进行了分析。试验结果表明:出渗能够减小颗粒群周围原水流运动方向的流速,而增大垂直向上的流速,且两者均随着出渗强度的增强而对流速的影响愈加明显;根据实测数据,拟合出考虑出渗影响下的均匀大粒径泥沙周围纵向流速分布公式,相关性较好;出渗能增强颗粒群附近的紊动强度,加剧周围水体的能量耗散;随着出渗强度的增强,颗粒群周围的涡量值随之减小。  相似文献   

三维应力状态下砂的临界状态本构模型分叉分析     

甄文战  孙德安  陈瑶瑶 《岩土力学》2011,32(9):2663-2668

就服从非关联流动法则软化型砂的临界状态本构模型,在不同应力路径下的分叉进行了理论和数值分析。理论分析表明：分叉现象强烈依赖于应力路径,即当平均应力p一定时,应力路径在洛德角在-25o～15o之间时,均会在应力-应变关系硬化阶段出现分叉现象,而其他应力路径下不会产生分叉。并且分叉时对应的应力比、主应变及剪切带倾角都随洛德角的增加而变化,其值是先增加而后减小。采用回映应力更新算法,编写了该本构模型材料子程序,借助有限元软件ABAQUS及材料子程序,通过数值计算方法预测到了分叉点所对应的应力状态,表明了分叉现象在数值计算中的存在性,并通过数值预测值和理论解的对比,两者结果基本一致。  相似文献   

Impact of climate change on floodplain inundation and hydrological connectivity between wetlands and rivers in a tropical river catchment   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Fazlul Karim  Cuan Petheram  Steve Marvanek  Catherine Ticehurst  Jim Wallace  Masud Hasan 《水文研究》2016,30(10):1574-1593

  相似文献