Efficient sampling and data reduction techniques for probabilistic seismic lifeline risk assessment     

Nirmal Jayaram  Jack W. Baker 《地震工程与结构动力学》2010,39(10):1109-1131

Probabilistic seismic risk assessment for spatially distributed lifelines is less straightforward than for individual structures. While procedures such as the ‘PEER framework’ have been developed for risk assessment of individual structures, these are not easily applicable to distributed lifeline systems, due to difficulties in describing ground‐motion intensity (e.g. spectral acceleration) over a region (in contrast to ground‐motion intensity at a single site, which is easily quantified using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis), and since the link between the ground‐motion intensities and lifeline performance is usually not available in closed form. As a result, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and its variants are well suited for characterizing ground motions and computing resulting losses to lifelines. This paper proposes a simulation‐based framework for developing a small but stochastically representative catalog of earthquake ground‐motion intensity maps that can be used for lifeline risk assessment. In this framework, Importance Sampling is used to preferentially sample ‘important’ ground‐motion intensity maps, and K‐Means Clustering is used to identify and combine redundant maps in order to obtain a small catalog. The effects of sampling and clustering are accounted for through a weighting on each remaining map, so that the resulting catalog is still a probabilistically correct representation. The feasibility of the proposed simulation framework is illustrated by using it to assess the seismic risk of a simplified model of the San Francisco Bay Area transportation network. A catalog of just 150 intensity maps is generated to represent hazard at 1038 sites from 10 regional fault segments causing earthquakes with magnitudes between five and eight. The risk estimates obtained using these maps are consistent with those obtained using conventional MCS utilizing many orders of magnitudes more ground‐motion intensity maps. Therefore, the proposed technique can be used to drastically reduce the computational expense of a simulation‐based risk assessment, without compromising the accuracy of the risk estimates. This will facilitate computationally intensive risk analysis of systems such as transportation networks. Finally, the study shows that the uncertainties in the ground‐motion intensities and the spatial correlations between ground‐motion intensities at various sites must be modeled in order to obtain unbiased estimates of lifeline risk. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

创意产业及其地方性     

吴维平 《世界地理研究》2010,19(4):1-15

本文致力研究创意产业集群与城市政策和效益之间的互动。研究的创意产业行业包括软件、多媒体、电子游戏、时装设计、出版、研究与开发。经验调查研究以多个城市的情况作为基础,这些城市包括美国的波士顿、旧金山、圣迭亚戈、西雅图、奥斯丁、华盛顿特区、爱尔兰的都柏林、东京和印度的班加罗尔。本文关键的研究问题是:什么类型的城市是富有创意的?什么区位因素是必不可少的?创意城市共同采取的政策措施有哪些?文章首先总结了影响地方特定创意产业集群的因素和政策措施;接着深入剖析两个成功的创意城市——波士顿和圣迭亚戈的案例,随后讨论城市各自的某些特征是否使得它们更适合发展某一特定的创意产业。  相似文献   

Water ecological function zoning in Heihe River Basin,Northwest China     

《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth》2016

Rapid urbanization coupled with increase in population growth rate in recent years has accelerated economic pressure on the ecological environment leading to a gradual deterioration of global and regional environment. This has particularly resulted into water contamination and shortage of water resources thus posing a great threat to human survival. How to guaranteeing sustainable use of basin water resources has attracted more and more attentions. The Heihe River Basin is the secondary longest river inland China and the significantly water source of Hexi Corridor, the problem of water pollution, ecological environment deterioration and the shortage of water has seriously threatened the ecological system of the Heihe River Basin. In this study, through depicting the characteristics of natural environment, human activities, water ecosystem services and other factors in Heihe River Basin we delineated the water ecological function in Heihe River using the principal components analysis and the K-means clustering method. In the study, Heihe River Basin is divided into 3 primary level areas and 8 secondary level sub-areas. Water ecological characteristics analysis showed that the spatial distribution of the water ecological function of Heihe River Basin was not uniform, which are mainly showed in three aspects, function of windproof and sand fixation, function of soil erosion prevention and function of water sources conservation. The results of this study can provide effective and scientific theoretical references for the integrated water sources management and the ecological function optimization of the Heihe River Basin.  相似文献   

遥感图谱认知理论与计算   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

骆剑承  吴田军  夏列钢 《地球信息科学学报》2016,18(5):578-589

近年来,随着对地观测技术的迅猛发展,卫星遥感领域逐渐进入了大数据时代。针对当前遥感应用的需求和特点,开展与视觉认知相结合的高分辨率遥感认知理论与方法研究是可行且必要的。在此背景下,受地学信息图谱思想启发,本文对遥感认知领域的图谱问题进行了研究,系统地提出了遥感图谱认知理论与计算方法论,旨在规范高分辨率遥感信息提取流程,构建精细化、定量化、智能化、综合化相结合的遥感信息解译模型。整套方法体系由横向“自底向上的分层抽象”和纵向“自顶向下的知识迁移”2个方向上的认知计算组成,分别对应了“由谱聚图”、“图谱协同”和“认图知谱”3大图谱转化过程。论文对涉及的概念、基本思想、关键技术及难点问题进行了重点分析,强调综合利用大数据、逐步融入知识来实现不同层次的遥感认知,以期为数据源极大丰富条件下的遥感信息解译提供新的视角。  相似文献   

聚类分析在土地工程能力评价中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王珊珊  刘凯  刘飞  李洪文  胡伏生 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2009,20(3):112-117

随着城市化进程的加快,城市地质环境所受的压力和影响与日俱增,工程地质环境的状况直接影响着城市工程建设。本文通过实例研究,从岩土体承载力入手,确定不同高度建筑物的适宜性,利用聚类分析划分不同高度建筑物适宜区。评价结果合理,有利于指导工程建设,扬长避短,因地制宜,对城市规划和发展具有重要意义。  相似文献   

Clustering of groundwater chemistry data with implications for reservoir appraisal in West Siberia     

A.R. Kurchikov  A.G. Plavnik   《Russian Geology and Geophysics》2009,50(11):943-949

Division of sedimentary strata according to groundwater chemistry is discussed with implications for petroleum reservoir potential. It is suggested to process multiparametric water chemistry data from West Siberia using formalized clustering techniques. The efficiency of this approach has been tested for Neocomian clinoform reservoirs with reference to regional-scale appraisal and subregional petroleum division.  相似文献   

Mining knowledge from result comparison between spatial clustering themes     

SHAZongyao BIANFuling 《地球空间信息科学学报》2005,8(1):57-63

This paper introduces some definitions and defines a set of calculating indexes to facilitate the research, and then presents an algorithm to complete the spatial clustering result comparison between different clustering themes. The research shows that some valuable spatial correlation patterns can be further found from the clustering result comparison with multi-themes, based on traditional spatial clustering as the first step. Those patterns can tell us what relations those themes have, and thus will help us have a deeper understanding of the studied spatial entities. An example is also given to demonstrate the principle and process of the method.  相似文献   

HISTORICAL GEOGRAPHY IN JAPAN∗     

《The Professional geographer》2013,65(3):321-326

A regret frequently expressed at International Geographical Congresses concerns the lack of summary information about the nature of geographic research in the host country. During a discussion of this point with members of the Association of Japanese Geographers, the idea of publishing a series of reports on various aspects of Japanese research surfaced. The concept was later enthusiastically supported by the United States National Committee for the International Geographical Union. This first report, “Historical Geography in Japan,” has been modified for the benefit of the English-speaking readers of THE PROFESSIONAL GEOGRAPHER. Although the reports will be of particular interest to those planning to attend the 1980 IGC in Tokyo, they should prove of general interest as well.—H. Jesse Walker, Member, U.S. National Committee, IGU.  相似文献   

Predicting human mobility with activity changes     

Wei Huang  Xintao Liu  Yifang Ban 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(9):1569-1587

Human mobility patterns can provide valuable information in understanding the impact of human behavioral regularities in urban systems, usually with a specific focus on traffic prediction, public health or urban planning. While existing studies on human movement have placed huge emphasis on spatial location to predict where people go next, the time dimension component is usually being treated with oversimplification or even being neglected. Time dimension is crucial to understanding and detecting human activity changes, which play a negative role in prediction and thus may affect the predictive accuracy. This study aims to predict human movement from a spatio-temporal perspective by taking into account the impact of activity changes. We analyze and define changes of human activity and propose an algorithm to detect such changes, based on which a Markov chain model is used to predict human movement. The Microsoft GeoLife dataset is used to test our methodology, and the data of two selected users is used to evaluate the performance of the prediction. We compare the predictive accuracy (R²) derived from the data with and without implementing the activity change detection. The results show that the R² is improved from 0.295 to 0.762 for the user with obvious activity changes and from 0.965 to 0.971 for the user without obvious activity changes. The method proposed by this study improves the accuracy in analyzing and predicting human movement and lays the foundation for related urban studies.  相似文献   

From marginal to conditional probability functions of parameters in a conceptual rainfall–runoff model: an event-based approach     

Santiago Sandoval  Jean-Luc Bertrand-Krajewski 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(11):1340-1350

ABSTRACT

A parameter estimation strategy for a conceptual rainfall–runoff (CRR) model applied to a storm sewer system in an urban catchment (Chassieu, Lyon, France) is proposed on the basis of event-by-event Bayesian local calibrations. The marginal distribution formed by locally-estimated parameters is divided into conditional functions, clustering the event-based parameters based on their transferability to similar rainfall events. The conditional functions showed to be consistent with an observed bimodality in the marginal representation, reflecting two different hydrological conditions mainly related to the magnitude of the rainfall intensities (high or low). The improvements achieved by expressing the parameter probability functions into a conditional form are shown in terms of accuracy (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criterion), precision (average relative interval length) and reliability (percentage of coverage) for simulating flow rate in 255 and 110 calibration/verification events.  相似文献