基于灰色GM（1，1）模型的城市生活用水量预测   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王勇 《地下水》2010,32(2):104-106

介绍灰色理论建模原理和模型参数辨识方法,并以上海市为实例建立灰色GM（1,1）预测模型,运用残差检验、后验差检验以及关联度检验3种方法对模型进行精度检验,其模型拟合精度达97．25％。用所建立的模型对上海市2003～2007年城市生活用水量进行预测。结果表明,该灰色模型用于城市生活用水量预测,符合其灰色特性,通用性好,并且所需数据少,计算量适中,预测结果与实际情况比较吻合。  相似文献   

保山西邑铅锌矿采选工程RQD与RBI对比研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

王建国  刘德安  徐世光  张世涛  李洪伟 《云南地质》2010,29(2):220-223,214

用岩石质量指标和岩体块度指数的理论,对钻孔岩心实测资料进行分析和对比研究,对钻孔周围岩体进行分级。结果表明:岩体块度指数在岩石质量评价中能更准确地反映其优越性,具有更为显著的工程意义。  相似文献   

水平定向钻穿越工程的项目风险评价          下载免费PDF全文

沈华  马保松  吴浪辉 《探矿工程》2010,37(3):62-65,81

随着我国城市化进程的加快,以及大型基础工程建设投入力度的加大,大型的水平定向钻穿越工程项目也越来越多,然而针对这类工程的风险评价却还不多。某大型天然气输气管道工程项目,投资多,风险大,事先进行风险评估十分必要。首先根据项目专家进行项目评估建立指标体系,然后结合模糊综合评价法和层次分析法各自的优点,针对该指标体系及专家所提供的评判数据,建立判断矩阵和隶属度矩阵并运用Matlab编程计算得权向量和隶属度向量,计算得出项目的风险值,得出相应的结论。  相似文献   

基于情景分析的天津市滨海新区地面沉降预测   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

周俊  杨建图  陆阳  韦劲松  胡蓓蓓 《地质灾害与环境保护》2010,21(1):92-96,100

鉴于地面沉降演化的地质系统渐变性特征,从主要致灾因子考虑建立地面沉降数值模型。设计3种地下水开采情景,编译计算机程序预测地下水位动态变化过程中的地面沉降值。至2020年,在最不利、适中和最理想3种情景下天津市滨海新区最大累计沉降量分别达640 mm、520 mm和150mm;全区平均累计沉降量分别达268 mm、177 mm和95 mm。  相似文献   

利用氮氧同位素研究桂林寨底地下河硝酸盐来源   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

王松  裴建国  梁建宏 《地质灾害与环境保护》2010,21(4):54-56,81

工农业生产的迅速发展使地下水硝酸盐氮(NO3-—N)污染成为世界性的环境问题。地下水中硝酸盐的来源研究在水文地质结构特殊的西南岩溶地区就显得尤为重要。稳定氮同位素和氧同位素在地下水硝酸盐的来源示踪研究中有着广泛的应用。本研究选取岩溶地区典型地下河——广西桂林寨底地下河为研究对象,通过氮氧同位素数据,判断寨底地下河硝酸盐来源是以动物粪便为主的农家肥,为该区地下水的保护和利用提供科学依据。  相似文献   

Volume estimation of small scale debris flows based on observations of topographic changes using airborne LiDAR DEMs     

Hosung Kim  Seung Woo Lee  Chan-Young Yune  Gihong Kim 《山地科学学报》2014,11(3):578-591

This paper describes a geographic information system(GIS)-based method for observing changes in topography caused by the initiation, transport, and deposition of debris flows using highresolution light detection and ranging(LiDAR) digital elevation models(DEMs) obtained before and after the debris flow events. The paper also describes a method for estimating the volume of debris flows using the differences between the LiDAR DEMs. The relative and absolute positioning accuracies of the LiDAR DEMs were evaluated using a real-time precise global navigation satellite system(GNSS) positioning method. In addition, longitudinal and cross-sectional profiles of the study area were constructed to determine the topographic changes caused by the debris flows. The volume of the debris flows was estimated based on the difference between the LiDAR DEMs. The accuracies of the relative and absolute positioning of the two LiDAR DEMs were determined to be ±10 cm and ±11 cm RMSE, respectively, which demonstrates the efficiency of the method for determining topographic changes at an scale equivalent to that of field investigations. Based on the topographic changes, the volume of the debris flows in the study area was estimated to be 3747 m3, which is comparable with the volume estimated based on the data from field investigations.  相似文献   

Retrieving multi-scale climatic variations from high dimensional time-series MODIS green vegetation cover in a tropical/subtropical mountainous island     

CHANG Chung-te  WANG Hsueh-ching  HUANG Cho-ying 《山地科学学报》2014,11(2):407-420

【Title】
There are knowledge gaps in our understanding of vegetation responses to multi-scale climate-related variables in tropical/subtropical mountainous islands in the Asia-Pacific region. Therefore, this study investigated inter-annual vegetation dynamics and regular/irregular climate patterns in Taiwan. We applied principal component analysis （PCA） on 11 years （2001~2011） of high-dimensional monthly photosynthetically active vegetation cover （PV） derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer （MODIS） and investigated the relationships between spatiotemporal patterns of the eigenvectors and loadings of each component through time and multi-scale climate-related variations. Results showed that the first five components contributed to 96.4% of the total variance. The first component （PC1, explaining 94.5% of variance） loadings, as expected, were significantly correlated with the temporal dynamics of the PV （r = 0.94）, which was mainly governed by regional climate. The temporal loadings of PC2 and PC3 （0.8% and 0.6% of variance, respectively） were significantly correlated with the temporal dynamics of the PV of forests （r = 0.72） and the farmlands （r = 0.80）, respectively. The low-order components （PC4 and PC5, 0.3% and 0.2% of variance, respectively） were closely related to the occurrence of drought （r = 0.49） and to irregular ENSO associated climate anomalies （r = -0.54）, respectively. Pronounced correlations were also observed between PC5 and the Southern Oscillation Index （SOI） with one to three months of time lags （r = -0.35 ~ -0.43, respectively）, revealing biophysical memory effects on the time-series pattern of the vegetation through ENSO-related rainfall patterns. Our findings reveal that the sensitivity of the ecosystems in this tropical/subtropical mountainous island may not only be regulated by regional climate and human activities but also be susceptible to large-scale climate anomalies which are crucial and comparable to previous large scale analyses. This study demonstrates that PCA can be an effective tool for analyzing seasonal and inter-annual variability of vegetation dynamics across this tropical/subtropical mountainous islandin the Pacific Ocean, which provides an opportunity to forecast the responses and feedbacks of terrestrial environments to future climate scenarios.  相似文献   

Changes in Land Use and Agricultural Production Structure Before and After the Implementation of Grain for Green Program in Western China–Taking Two Typical Counties as Examples   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

ZHOU Ping  WEN An-bang  YAN Dong-chun  SHI Zhong-lin  GUO Jin  JU Zhan-sheng  ZHANG Yi-lan 《山地科学学报》2014,11(2):526-534

Soil erosion becomes a serious environmental problem in the world, especially in western China. An effective management practice called the Grain for Green Program （GGP）, which was launched in 1999, aims to reduce soil and water loss and alleviate the ecological environment problem in western China. Two typical counties in western China, the Zhongxian （in Chongqing Municipality） and Ansai （in Shaanxi Province） were chosen to evaluate the dynamic changes of land use and agricultural production structure before and after the implementation of the Program in this paper. The results showed that the cultivated land area was reduced by 7.08% from 1989 to 2003. The cultivated land per person was decreased by 8.42% during 1999-2003. Moreover, the stability index of the secondary sector of the economy was increased from 0.91 in the period 1990-1999 to 0.94 in the following ten years. In addition, the stability index of tertiary economic sector increased from 0.88 to 0.92 in Zhongxian county. Meanwhile, the cultivated land area was reduced by 15.48% from 1990 to 1999. The soil erosion modulus was decreased by 33.33% from 1999 to 2006. Also, the stability index of secondary and tertiary economic sectors was 0.86 in the period 1998-2002. However, it decreased by 77% during 2002 to 2007 in Ansai County. These results imply that the Grain for Green Program had different impact on the two regions. Several effective strategies of soil and water conservation have been carried out to ameliorate the sustainable development of ecological environment and economy in these two counties of western China.  相似文献   

Mapping daily temperature and precipitation in the Qilian Mountains of northwest China     

Shou-zhang Peng  Chuan-yan Zhao  Xiao-ping Wang  Zhong-lin Xu  Xing-ming Liu  Hu Hao  Shi-fei Yang 《山地科学学报》2014,11(4):896-905

Daily meteorological data are the critical inputs for distributed hydrological and ecological models. This study modified mountain microclimate simulation model （MTCLIM） with the data from 19 weather stations, and compared and validated two methods （the MTCLIM and the modified MTCLIM） in the Qilian Mountains of Northwest China to estimate daily temperature （i.e., maximum temperature, minimum temperature） and precipitation at six weather stations from i January 2000 to 31December 2009. The algorithm of temperature in modified MTCLIM was improved by constructing the daily linear regression relationship between temperature and elevation, aspect and location information. There are two steps to modify the MTCLIM to predict daily precipitation： firstly, the linear regression relationship was built between annual average precipitation and elevation, location, and vegetation index; secondly, the distance weight for measuring the contribution of each weather station on target point was improved by average wind direction during the rainy season. Several regression analysis and goodness-of-fit indices （i.e., Pearson＇s correlation coefficient, coefficient of determination, mean absolute error, root-mean-square error and modelingefficiency） were used to validate these estimated values. The result showed that the modified MTCLIM had a better performance than the MTCLIM. Therefore, the modified MTCLIM was used to map daily meteorological data in the study area from 2000 to 2009. These results were validated using weather stations with short time data and the predicted accuracy was acceptable. The meteorological data mapped could become inputs for distributed hydrological and ecological models applied in the Qilian Mountains.  相似文献   

Historical Sediment Record of ~(137)Cs, δ-HCH,and δ~(13)C Reflects the Impact of Land Use on Soil Erosion     

TANG Xiang-Yu  ;ZHANG Xin-Bao  ;GUAN Zhuo  ;LONG Yi  ;TANG Qiang  ;LU Yu-Juan 《山地科学学报》2014,11(4):866-874

This paper reports the concentrations of 137 Cs, hexachlorocyclohexane(HCH), dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes(DDT) and its main degradation products, δ13C, and organic carbon in pond sediments(0-210 cm, sectioned by 2-20 cm interval) and surface soils(the 0-3 cm horizon) collected in 2010 from Chenjia catchment, which is located in Yanting county in the hilly central Sichuan of China. α-, δ-, and γ-HCH, DDT, and DDD were not detected throughout the sediment profile. Trace concentrations of δ-HCH(0.89-29.31 ng g-1) and p,p′-DDE(1.85-6.02 ng g-1) were detected only in top 40 cm sediment. The 137 Cs fallout peak in 1963(corresponding to the 55-60 cm depth), the sedimentary signature left by the last year of HCH use in 1989(an additional indicator at 20-25 cm), and the obvious original channel bed prior to the construction of the pond in 1956 were used as temporal markers to estimate changes in average sedimentation rate between different periods due to changes in land use. Continuous, marked decrease in average sedimentation rate(i.e., 3.79, 1.35 and 1.07 cm year-1 in 1956-1963, 1963-1989, and 1989-2010, respectively)over time was observed, probably due to the reforestation, abandoning of steep sloping farmland for afforestation and natural re-vegetation(implementation of the Grain for Green Program), and the conversion of part of gently sloping farmland terraces to orchard land since the 1980 s, especially since the 1990 s. This was corroborated by the observed decrease(more negative) in δ13C of sediment towards the surface, which indicates increased relative contribution of eroded soil particles coming from slopes with increased tree cover in sediment source area. Combined use of 137 Cs, δ-HCH, and δ13C record in sediments has been demonstrated to be a powerful approach to reconstruction of response in sedimentation rate to historical land use changes.  相似文献