Testing the robustness of the physically-based ECOMAG model with respect to changing conditions   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

A. Gelfan  Yu Motovilov  I. Krylenko  V. Moreido  E. Zakharova 《水文科学杂志》2015,60(7-8):1266-1285

Abstract

The robustness of the physically-based, semi-distributed hydrological model ECOMAG with respect to changing (climatic or land-use) conditions was evaluated for two basins, considered within the modelling workshop held in the frame of the 2013 IAHS conference in Göteborg, Sweden. The first basin, the Garonne River basin, France, is characterized mostly by changes in climatic conditions, while the second, Obyån Creek, Sweden, was exposed to drastic land cover change due to deforestation. Tests were conducted to evaluate the model’s ability to simulate with acceptable accuracy the changing hydrological regime of each basin and to retain, in the process, relatively stable values of the parameters. Acceptable performance of the ECOMAG model was obtained under the different combinations of the calibration/evaluation periods, including, importantly, the periods of hydrological regime changes in both basins.  相似文献   

适于城市交通时序空间数据预测的层叠泛化模型     

刘希亮  陆锋 《地球信息科学学报》2015,17(12):1474-1482

受地理过程的动态随机性影响,时序空间数据建模普遍存在先验知识缺乏与模型参数设置问题,导致单一模型难以有效地反映地理系统的整体运行状态。本文提出了一个普适性的集成学习框架,设计了基于异态集成学习的层叠泛化模型,按照组合模型最大化减小原始预测误差原则改进了层叠泛化模型平均输出的混合策略,并基于error-ambiguity decomposition对提出的层叠泛化模型的有效性进行了数学证明。基于北京市交通路网通行状态数据的实验结果表明,层叠泛化模型的均方根误差与平均绝对误差均小于单一模型;平均绝对误差方差均小于基于数理统计的混合模型,验证了层叠泛化模型在时序空间数据预测方面的优越性。  相似文献   

Effects of vertical irregularity and thickness of unreinforced masonry infill on the robustness of RC framed buildings          下载免费PDF全文

Goutam Mondal  Solomon Tesfamariam 《地震工程与结构动力学》2014,43(2):205-223

Presence of irregularities in reinforced concrete (RC) buildings increases seismic vulnerability. During severe seismic shaking, such buildings may suffer disproportionate damage or even collapse that can be minimized by increasing robustness. Robustness is a desirable property of structural systems that can mitigate susceptible buildings to disproportionate collapse. In this paper, the effects of vertical irregularity and thickness of unreinforced masonry infill on the robustness of a six‐story three‐bay RC frame are quantified. Nonlinear static analysis of the frame is performed, and parametric study is undertaken by considering two parameters: absence of masonry infill at different floors (i.e., vertical irregularities) and infill thickness. Robustness has been quantified in terms of stiffness, base shear, ductility, and energy dissipation capacity of the frame. It was observed that the infill thickness and vertical irregularity have significant influence on the response of RC frame. The response surface method is used to develop a predictive equation for robustness as a function of the two parameters. The predictive equation is validated further using 12 randomly selected computer simulations. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

广义高斯分布下稳健估计方法的抗差特性评价     

刘珺  邢鹏飞 《大地测量与地球动力学》2016,36(3):257-260

为寻求在抗差特性方面更具优势的稳健估计方法,引入能更客观地描述观测值真实分布的广义高斯分布来模拟观测值,并结合独立等权观测值的水准网和测边网算例,比较了12种常用稳健估计方法的抗差特性。研究表明,观测值服从广义高斯分布时,在与试验类似的独立等权观测值的水准网和测边网平差计算中,L1法、Danish法、German-McClure法和IGGⅢ方案是抗差特性相对更优的稳健估计方法。  相似文献   

基于整体最小二乘的稳健点云数据平面拟合   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

官云兰  刘绍堂  周世健  张立亭  鲁铁定 《大地测量与地球动力学》2011,31(5):80-83

针对点云数据平面拟合方法没有完整考虑测量数据中的误差及系数阵中误差的情况,提出稳健整体最小二乘点云数据平面拟合方法。该法以整体最小二乘法为基础,在考虑全部观测量存在误差的情况下,通过一定的准则删除数据中的粗差或异常值,从而获得稳健的平面参数估值。实验中,分别利用最小二乘法、特征值法和稳健整体最小二乘拟合法对仿真点云数据和真实点云数据进行平面拟合,结果显示该法能克服异常值的影响,得到可靠的平面参数估值,具有稳健性。  相似文献   

Seismic response control with density-variable tuned liquid dampers     

Yuxiang Xin  Genda Chen  Menglin Lou 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2009,8(4):537-546

In this paper,the seismic effectiveness of a density-variable tuned liquid damper(DVTLD) with a sloping bottom is experimentally investigated through a series of shake table tests on a 1/4-scale,3-story frame structure and numerically simulated by a new semi-analytical model.Special attention was given to reducing the fi rst peak and maximum response under near-and far-fi eld ground motions,and the robustness of a density-variable control system consisting of multiple DVTLDs with closely-spaced frequencies....  相似文献   

Simplified-robust geotechnical design of soldier pile–anchor tieback shoring system for deep excavation     

Wenping Gong  Hongwei Huang  C. Hsein Juang  Lei Wang 《Marine Georesources & Geotechnology》2017,35(2):157-169

The shoring system that consists of soldier piles and anchor tiebacks is often used in deep excavations in sandy deposits. However, uncertainties often exist in the design of such shoring systems. In this article, a simplified-robust geotechnical design method is proposed to account for these uncertainties in the shoring system design. Specifically, for a given deep excavation, uncertain soil parameters and surcharges are treated as noise factors, and the parameters of soldier piles and tieback anchors are treated as design parameters. Robust design is then implemented as a multiobjective optimization problem, in which the design robustness is sought along with cost efficiency and safety requirements. A trade-off between design robustness and cost efficiency exists and the optimization usually leads to a Pareto front. By applying the knee point concept, the most preferred design that meets the safety requirements and yields the best compromise between design robustness and cost efficiency can be identified on the Pareto front. Improvements made to the existing robust geotechnical design method include an efficient formulation of the design robustness and a new procedure for finding the most preferred design in the design pool. The new simplified-robust geotechnical design method is illustrated with a real-world excavation case study.  相似文献   

On robustness of large quantile estimates to largest elements of the observation series   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

W. G. Strupczewski  K. Kochanek  S. Weglarczyk  V. P. Singh 《水文研究》2007,21(10):1328-1344

The robustness of large quantile estimates of largest elements in a small sample by the methods of moments (MOM), L‐moments (LMM) and maximum likelihood (MLM) was evaluated and compared. Bias (B) and mean square error (MSE) were used to measure the estimation methods performance. Quantiles were estimated by eight two‐parameter probability distributions with the variation coefficient being the shape parameter. The effect of dropping largest elements of the series on large quantile values was assessed for various variation coefficient (C_V)/sample size (n) ‘combinations’ with n = 30 as the basic value. To that end, both the Monte Carlo sampling experiments and an asymptotic approach consisting in distribution truncation were applied. In general, both sampling and asymptotic approaches point to MLM as the most robust method of the three considered, with respect to bias of large quantiles. Comparing the performance of two other methods, the MOM estimates were found to be more robust for small and moderate hydrological samples drawn from distributions with zero lower‐bound than were the LMM estimates. Extending the evaluation to outliers, it was shown that all the above findings remain valid. However, using the MSE variation as a measure of performance, the LMM was found to be the best for most distribution/variation coefficient combinations, whereas MOM was found to be the worst. Moreover, removal of the largest sample element need not result in a loss of estimation efficiency. The gain in accuracy is observed for the heavy‐tailed and log‐normal distributions, being particularly distinctive for LMM. In practice, while dealing with a single sample deprived of its largest element, one should choose the estimation method giving the lowest MSE of large quantiles. For n = 30 and several distribution/variation coefficient combinations, the MLM outperformed the two other methods in this respect and its supremacy grew with sample size, while MOM was usually the worst. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于截断1-范数损失函数的鲁棒超限学习机     

王快妮  曹进德 《南京气象学院学报》2019,11(4):453-459

对噪声和异常值较敏感、鲁棒性差是超限学习机（ELM）的主要问题.在1-范数损失函数的基础上,提出截断1-范数损失函数来抑制噪声和异常值的影响,建立了基于截断1-范数损失函数的鲁棒ELM模型.通过迭代重赋权算法求解对应的优化问题,并利用4个模拟数据集和9个真实数据集验证模型的有效性.数值实验结果表明,在噪声环境下鲁棒ELM的泛化性能优于对比方法,并且具有较强的鲁棒性,尤其是在异常值比例较大的情形下.  相似文献   

Robust flood statistics: comparison of peak over threshold approaches based on monthly maxima and TL-moments     

Svenja Fischer  Andreas Schumann 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):457-470

ABSTRACT

Flood quantile estimation based on partial duration series (peak over threshold, POT) represents a noteworthy alternative to the classical annual maximum approach since it enlarges the available information spectrum. Here the POT approach is discussed with reference to its benefits in increasing the robustness of flood quantile estimations. The classical POT approach is based on a Poisson distribution for the annual number of exceedences, although this can be questionable in some cases. Therefore, the Poisson distribution is compared with two other distributions (binomial and Gumbel-Schelling). The results show that only rarely is there a difference from the Poisson distribution. In the second part we investigate the robustness of flood quantiles derived from different approaches in the sense of their temporal stability against the occurrence of extreme events. Besides the classical approach using annual maxima series (AMS) with the generalized extreme value distribution and different parameter estimation methods, two different applications of POT are tested. Both are based on monthly maxima above a threshold, but one also uses trimmed L-moments (TL-moments). It is shown how quantile estimations based on this “robust” POT approach (rPOT) become more robust than AMS-based methods, even in the case of occasional extraordinary extreme events.