碳市场与电力市场机制影响下发电机组成本分析与竞争力研究     

孙友源  郭振  张继广  秦亚琦 《气候变化研究进展》2021,17(4):476-483

碳市场和电力市场将共同发挥市场对资源优化配置的决定性作用,对共同市场主体发电企业带来经营和发展挑战。在考虑碳成本的基础上,采用发电机组经济性影响模型,定量分析了碳市场不同发展阶段对发电机组发电成本的影响,定量评价不同能源结构投资收益经济性,以及对集中竞价市场出清顺序的影响。结果表明,随着有偿配额比例和碳价增加,碳成本占发电成本比例逐步攀升,燃煤机组碳成本占发电成本比例最高将达29%,燃气机组此比例达6%;在设定碳市场高比例配额有偿分配和高碳价情况下,煤电和气电单位发电收益逐步降低甚至出现亏损,远低于可再生能源,推动投资逐步向清洁高效火电机组和可再生能源倾斜;碳成本将成为竞价市场需考虑的重要因素,并影响发电机组出清顺序,进一步巩固高效率、低排放机组在集中竞价市场中的竞争力。  相似文献   

IPCC AR6报告解读：气候系统对太阳辐射干预响应     

曹龙 《气候变化研究进展》2021,17(6):671-684

IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第一工作组报告评估了太阳辐射干预（Solar radiation modification,SRM）对气候系统和碳循环的影响。在大幅度减排基础上,太阳辐射干预有潜力作为应对气候变化的备用措施。目前,对于太阳辐射干预气候影响的评估都是基于模式模拟结果。评估主要结论如下：太阳辐射干预可以在全球和区域尺度上抵消一部分温室气体增加造成的气候变化（高信度);但是太阳辐射干预无法在全球和区域尺度上完全抵消温室气体增加引起的气候变化（几乎确定);有可能通过适当的太阳辐射干预设计,同时实现多个温度变化减缓目标（中等信度);在高强度温室气体排放情景下,如果太阳辐射干预实施后突然终止,并且这种终止长时间持续,将会造成快速的气候变化（高信度);如果在减排和CO₂移除的情况下,太阳辐射干预的实施强度逐渐减小至零,将显著降低太阳辐射干预突然终止产生的快速气候变化风险（中等信度);太阳辐射干预会通过降温作用,促进陆地和海洋对大气CO₂的吸收（中等信度),但是太阳辐射干预无法缓解海洋酸化（高信度);太阳辐射干预对其他生物化学循环影响的不确定性大。由于对云-气溶胶-辐射过程的相互作用和微物理过程认知有限,目前对平流层气溶胶注入、海洋低云亮化、高层卷云变薄等太阳辐射干预方法的冷却潜力和气候效应的认知还有很大的不确定性。  相似文献   

Composition and origin of the volatile components released from the Pesyanoe aubrite by stepwise crushing and heating     

《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2021,81(1):125686

Aubrites are achondritic meteorites (enstatite pyroxenites) that were formed in highly reduced magmatic environments on a differentiated parent body sharing a common oxygen isotope reservoir with enstatite chondrites (EC), Earth and Moon, and could be considered as a geochemical model of the early proto-Earth. Some pyroxenes of the Pesyanoe aubrite have high abundance of gaseous inclusions, captured during the crystallization of the rocks. Investigation of the inclusions by IR spectroscopy reveals presence of OH⁻ groups and C–H bonds. The former are assigned to protonated point defects in enstatite lattice and the latter to compounds occupying void walls. Molecular water and CO₂ were not observed. Volatile components released from the samples of the Pesyanoe enstatite by stepwise crushing and heating are composed of CO₂, H₂O and a non-condensable phase. Hydrogen isotopic composition of volatiles extracted in form of molecular water in Px-separates varies in the range δD = −61 – −84‰ with mean value of δD = −73 ± 16‰ VSMOW and is within the ranges of ECs and Earth’s mantle. The total abundance of H₂ in the pyroxene of Pesyanoe were estimated as at least 0.047 ppm that is too low in comparison with that of enstatite chondrites (≥30 ppm H₂) and could indicate nearly complete degassing of the Pesyanoe primitive precursor material during the Pesyanoe parent body accretion or a mantle degassing in igneous differentiation process. In a last case a primitive precursor could have D/H ratio different from that of enstatite chondrites.  相似文献   

‘Filament’ marker beds in the Karababa-A Member (Turonian) of the Arabian platform,SE Turkey: Palaeo-environmental significance,stratigraphy and correlation potential     

O. Mülayim  I.O. Yilmaz  B. Sari  B. Ferré 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》2021,132(2):188-198

A ‘filament’ event bed/level corresponds to the occurrence of thin elongate calcitic, shells, or plates of pelagic, bivalve or crinoidal, origin, within pelagic, laminated and organic-matter rich limestones. These organic-rich limestones had been generally deposited under hypoxic/anoxic conditions in an outer-ramp environment. These thin elongate, bivalve shells, or crinoidal plates, are found broken in small pieces, disintegrated, or simply preserved parallel to bedding as almost complete specimens. Such ‘filament’ beds were spotted in SE Turkey in deposits, namely the Karababa-A Member, around the Cenomanian-Turonian boundary (C/TB) and above. On a global scale, these filament event beds illustrate sea-level rise related to eustacy and/or climatic change. The abundance of filaments close to the C/TB is a biological marker of high organic productivity resulting from a climatic change to warmer conditions. The prevailing higher sea-level conditions were then favourable to the accumulation and preservation of organic-rich facies, characteristic of the Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 (OAE2). Using both biostratigraphic and carbon isotopic data, those deposits were dated from the latest Cenomanian-Turonian age. ‘Filament’ event beds were recorded in the same order, except for some small differences. A good number of these bio-events are global. Consequently, on a global scale, they are susceptible to constrain the C/TB, especially the base of the Turonian stage, with a significant degree of confidence.  相似文献   

新疆奇台县黄羊山石墨矿床特征、物质来源及成因     

孙新浩  任云生  孙珍军  李作武  王承洋 《岩石学报》2021,37(6):1867-1882

黄羊山石墨矿床位于新疆东准噶尔造山带南部的卡拉麦里地区东南段,是近年来新发现的国内外首个产于花岗岩体中的超大型石墨矿床。成矿地质条件、矿床地质特征研究表明,该矿床与黄羊山碱性花岗岩体具有密切的时空及成因联系,矿石具独特的球状构造,球体中石墨与长英质矿物及磁黄铁矿、黄铜矿等金属硫化物密切共生。为确定黄羊山石墨矿床的成因和成矿物质来源,本文开展了球状矿石中的石墨拉曼光谱分析和C同位素测试,对与石墨密切共生的金属硫化物开展S-Pb同位素分析。结果表明,黄羊山矿床球状矿石不同部位石墨的拉曼谱峰相似,显示具有很高的结晶程度,估算结晶温度为750～800℃;7件石墨样品的δ~(13)C值在-19.27‰～-19.90‰,分布非常集中,介于岩浆碳值和有机碳值之间,表明具有两者的混合来源。4件磁黄铁矿样品的δ~(34)S值集中在-2.3‰～-2.9‰之间,接近原始地幔值;在Pb同位素构造环境判别图解上,Pb同位素比值(~(206)Pb/~(204) Pb=18.114～19.040,~(207)Pb/~(204) Pb=15.448 ～ 15.543,~(208) Pb/~(204)Pb=38.253～38.915)显示较好的线性关系,延伸方向与地幔演化曲线的延伸方向基本一致;S-Pb同位素测试结果表明,与石墨共生金属硫化物具有幔源特征。综合黄羊山矿床成矿地质条件、成矿特征、石墨及共生硫化物的物质来源等研究结果,本文初步认为,黄羊山石墨矿床形成于碱性花岗岩的岩浆作用阶段,矿石中的金属硫化物来自岩浆混合作用中的幔源基性端元,碳质由于岩浆同化混染作用达到饱和,在硫化物的催化下沉积形成石墨。  相似文献   

Major contribution to carbon neutrality by China’s geosciences and geological technologies     

《China Geology》2021,4(2):329-352

In the context of global climate change, geosciences provide an important geological solution to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality, China’s geosciences and geological technologies can play an important role in solving the problem of carbon neutrality. This paper discusses the main problems, opportunities, and challenges that can be solved by the participation of geosciences in carbon neutrality, as well as China’s response to them. The main scientific problems involved and the geological work carried out mainly fall into three categories: (1) Carbon emission reduction technology (natural gas hydrate, geothermal, hot dry rock, nuclear energy, hydropower, wind energy, solar energy, hydrogen energy); (2) carbon sequestration technology (carbon capture and storage, underground space utilization); (3) key minerals needed to support carbon neutralization (raw materials for energy transformation, carbon reduction technology). Therefore, geosciences and geological technologies are needed: First, actively participate in the development of green energy such as natural gas, geothermal energy, hydropower, hot dry rock, and key energy minerals, and develop exploration and exploitation technologies such as geothermal energy and natural gas; the second is to do a good job in geological support for new energy site selection, carry out an in-depth study on geotechnical feasibility and mitigation measures, and form the basis of relevant economic decisions to reduce costs and prevent geological disasters; the third is to develop and coordinate relevant departments of geosciences, organize and carry out strategic research on natural resources, carry out theoretical system research on global climate change and other issues under the guidance of earth system science theory, and coordinate frontier scientific information and advanced technological tools of various disciplines. The goal of carbon neutrality provides new opportunities and challenges for geosciences research. In the future, it is necessary to provide theoretical and technical support from various aspects, enhance the ability of climate adaptation, and support the realization of the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.  相似文献   

Would different methodologies for assessing carbon leakage exposure lead to different risk levels? A case study of the Brazilian industry     

Luan Santos  André F. P. Lucena  Rafael Garaffa 《Climate Policy》2019,19(9):1102-1116

Energy-intensive industries play an important role in low-carbon development, being particularly exposed to climate policies. Concern over possible carbon leakage in this sector poses a major challenge for designing effective carbon pricing instruments (CPI). Different methodologies for assessing carbon leakage exposure are currently used by different jurisdictions, each of them based on different approaches and indicators. This paper aims to analyse the extent to which the use of different methodologies leads to different results in terms of exposure to the risk of carbon leakage, using the Brazilian industry sector as a case study. Results indicate that carbon leakage exposure is an expected outcome of eventual CPI implementation in Brazilian industry. However, results vary according to the chosen methodology, so the definition of the criteria is paramount for assessing sectoral exposure to the risk of carbon leakage.

Key policy insights

• Despite increasing discussion about the implementation of carbon pricing on the Brazilian industrial sector, the evaluation of carbon leakage risks is still neglected.

• Assessments of the risk of carbon leakage are directly related to the indicators and criteria used by each methodology. Thus, a given subsector may present different levels of exposure to carbon leakage depending on the methodological choice.

• More than a purely technical discussion, the methodological definition of carbon leakage risk is a political discussion – it can be well-conducted, leading to the success of a CPI, or even sabotaged, by implicitly subsidizing energy-intensive industries.

  相似文献   

Perceived fairness and public acceptability of carbon pricing: a review of the literature     

Sara Maestre-Andrés  Stefan Drews  Jeroen van den Bergh 《Climate Policy》2019,19(9):1186-1204

While carbon pricing is widely seen as a crucial element of climate policy and has been implemented in many countries, it also has met with strong resistance. We provide a comprehensive overview of public perceptions of the fairness of carbon pricing and how these affect policy acceptability. To this end, we review evidence from empirical studies on how individuals judge personal, distributional and procedural aspects of carbon taxes and cap-and-trade. In addition, we examine preferences for particular redistributive and other uses of revenues generated by carbon pricing and their role in instrument acceptability. Our results indicate a high concern over distributional effects, particularly in relation to policy impacts on poor people, in turn reducing policy acceptability. In addition, people show little trust in the capacities of governments to put the revenues of carbon pricing to good use. Somewhat surprisingly, most studies do not indicate clear public preferences for using revenues to ensure fairer policy outcomes, notably by reducing its regressive effects. Instead, many people prefer using revenues for ‘environmental projects’ of various kinds. We end by providing recommendations for improving public acceptability of carbon pricing. One suggestion to increase policy acceptability is combining the redistribution of revenue to vulnerable groups with the funding for environmental projects, such as on renewable energy.

Key policy insights

• If people perceive carbon pricing instruments as fair, this increases policy acceptability and support.

• People’s satisfaction with information provided by the government about the policy instrument increases acceptability.

• While people express high concern over uneven distribution of the policy burden, they often prefer using carbon pricing revenues for environmental projects instead of compensation for inequitable outcomes.

• Recent studies find that people’s preferences shift to using revenues for making policy fairer if they better understand the functioning of carbon pricing, notably that relatively high prices of CO₂-intensive goods and services reduce their consumption.

• Combining the redistribution of revenue to support both vulnerable groups and environmental projects, such as on renewable energy, seems to most increase policy acceptability.

  相似文献   

碳市场顶层设计路线图     

邹骥  柴麒敏  陈济  傅莎  葛兴安  胡敏  李昂  林丹妮  林殷  刘冬惠  刘俊伶  刘爽  祁悦  王克  王庶  张俊杰 《气候变化研究进展》2019,15(3):217-221

中国正面临着低碳减排和保持经济增速的双重挑战。为利用碳排放权交易机制以最低的社会成本实现减排目标,我国自2013年起开始建设碳排放权交易试点,并于2017年12月起宣布正式启动全国碳市场。然而碳市场的顶层设计不可一蹴而就,需要在我国宏观经济改革的大背景下分阶段逐步推进。短期（2020年前）碳市场建设重在强化产权制度建设,完善市场交易基础。中期（2021—2030年）碳市场建设要形成活跃的市场氛围,充分降低我国的温室气体达峰成本。长期（2031—2050年）碳市场建设要形成稳定上升的碳价趋势,为我国的低碳转型提供长期动力。  相似文献   

Molecular and isotopic compositions of bitumens in Silurian tar sands from the Tarim Basin,NW China: Characterizing biodegradation and hydrocarbon charging in an old composite basin   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Wanglu Jia  Zhongyao Xiao  Chiling Yu  Ping'an Peng 《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2010

Biodegradation and oil mixing in Silurian sandstone reservoirs of the Tarim Basin, one of the largest composite basins in China, were investigated by analyzing the molecular characteristics and stable carbon isotopic signatures of low-molecular-weight (LMW) saturated hydrocarbons and high-molecular-weight (HMW) asphaltenes. Detection of 25-norhopanes and 17-nortricyclic terpanes in most Silurian tar sands from the Tabei Uplift in the Tarim Basin suggests a much greater degree of biodegradation here than in the Tazhong Uplift. This explains the relatively more abundant tricyclic terpanes, gammacerane, pregnane and diasteranes in tar sands from the Tabei Uplift than in those from the Tazhong Uplift. Hence, care must be taken when assigning oil source correlations using biomarkers in tar sands because of the biodegradation and mixing of oils derived from multiple sources in such an old composite basin. Asphaltenes in the tar sands seem to be part of the oil charge before biodegradation, depending on the relative anti-biodegradation characteristics of asphaltenes, the similarity in carbon isotopic signatures for asphaltenes and their pyrolysates, and the consistent product distribution for flash pyrolysis and for regular steranes in asphaltene pyrolysates, regardless of whether the tar sands were charged with fresh oil. According to the relative distributions of regular steranes and the relatively abundant 1,2,3,4-tetramethylbenzene significantly enriched in ¹³C, the oil sources for asphaltenes in the tar sands might be related to lower Paleozoic marine source rocks formed in euxinic conditions. Nevertheless, the relatively low abundance of gammacerane and C₂₈ regular steranes observed in asphaltene pyrolysates and residual hydrocarbons, within limited samples investigated in this work, made a direct correlation of oils originally charged into Silurian tar sands with those Cambrian source rocks, reported so far, seem not to be possible. Comparison of carbon isotopic signatures of n-alkanes in asphaltene pyrolysates with those of LMW saturated hydrocarbons is helpful in determining if the abundant n-alkanes in tar sands are derived from fresh oil charges after biodegradation. The limited carbon isotopic data for n-alkanes in LMW saturated hydrocarbons from the tar sands can be used to classify oils charged after biodegradation in the composite basin into four distinct groups.  相似文献