基于LHS方法的地下水随机模拟及开采量风险性 评价          下载免费PDF全文

崔亚莉  王婉丽  杨广元 《地学前缘》2010,17(6):134-140

地下水流数值模拟过程中,水文地质参数的不确定性对模拟结果影响很大。以内蒙古鄂尔多斯市某水源地为例,利用拉丁超立方抽样(LHS)方法获得了含水层渗透参数的随机组合,进行地下水流随机模拟。通过对观测资料与计算水位的绝对值平均(MAE)误差和误差均方根(RMSE)的统计分析,获得了模型较为稳定的随机模拟次数是243次。利用该随机模型对水源地设计开采量进行水位预测,并给出允许降深的风险性分布图。结果表明,预测水位和标准差分布符合实际情况,水位降深大于35 m的风险性最大达到75%。  相似文献   

Calibration framework for a Kalman filter applied to a groundwater model     

Jean-Philippe Drécourt  Henrik Madsen  Dan Rosbjerg 《Advances in water resources》2006

The paper presents a novel approach to the setup of a Kalman filter by using an automatic calibration framework for estimation of the covariance matrices. The calibration consists of two sequential steps: (1) Automatic calibration of a set of covariance parameters to optimize the performance of the system and (2) adjustment of the model and observation variance to provide an uncertainty analysis relying on the data instead of ad-hoc covariance values. The method is applied to a twin-test experiment with a groundwater model and a colored noise Kalman filter. The filter is implemented in an ensemble framework. It is demonstrated that lattice sampling is preferable to the usual Monte Carlo simulation because its ability to preserve the theoretical mean reduces the size of the ensemble needed. The resulting Kalman filter proves to be efficient in correcting dynamic error and bias over the whole domain studied. The uncertainty analysis provides a reliable estimate of the error in the neighborhood of assimilation points but the simplicity of the covariance models leads to underestimation of the errors far from assimilation points.  相似文献   

Masculinist Epistemologies and the Politics of Fieldwork in Latin Americanist Geography*     

Juanita Sundberg 《The Professional geographer》2003,55(2):180-190

Given the importance of fieldwork in Latin Americanist geography, it is intriguing to note the absence of a dialogue about the politics of fieldwork within the subdiscipline. Drawing from feminist theories about the production of knowledge, this article suggests that the silence about fieldwork is rooted in masculinist epistemologies that predominate in Latin Americanist geography. After analyzing the epistemological and pedagogical implications of masculinism, I argue for increased attention to the nexus of power and knowledge and in particular, to how the researcher's geographic location, social status, race, and gender fundamentally shape the questions asked, the data collected, and the interpretation of the data. Dialogue about these issues in our teaching and writing not only will better prepare students for fieldwork, but also has the potential to foster research that subverts rather than reproduces power inequalities.  相似文献   

多层住宅砖房的地震易损性分析   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：5  

张令心  江近仁  刘洁平 《地震工程与工程振动》2002,22(1):49-55

本文采用概率方法借助于拉丁超立方采样技术和非线性地震反应过程分析对多层住宅砖房的地震易损性进行分析。其分析样本是根据多层住宅砖房目前常用设计参数值的范围选定参数的代表值，并由这些代表值构成的；分析中考虑了地震荷载、结构反应和结构承载力的不确定性。易损性曲线分别对五个不同结构破坏程度的极限状态给出。  相似文献   

Ground motion prediction with the empirical Green's function technique: an assessment of uncertainties and confidence level     

Ronan Pavic  Martin G. Koller  Pierre-Yves Bard  Corinne Lacave-Lachet 《Journal of Seismology》2000,4(1):59-77

An assessment of uncertainties for ground motion predictions with the aid of the empirical Green's function (EGF) technique is presented. The main input parameters were identified, and their respective uncertainties were assessed by means of an international expert inquiry. The repercussion of these input uncertainties on the final ground motion estimates were investigated by means of the Latin Hypercube Sampling technique. The mean ground motion estimates (response spectra) and their standard deviations were compared with results obtained from empirical attenuation laws. The most sensitive input parameter turned out to be the seismic moment corresponding to the EGF. In general, if the source parameters are well determined, equivalent uncertainties, statistically speaking, can be expected from the EGF technique and from the application of attenuation laws. Therefore, if EGFs with well known source parameters are available, the EGF technique seems to be preferable: site effects are automatically taken into account, and physically realistic acceleration time histories can be obtained. However, further investigations on the reliability of the EGF technique should be performed, and finally, it is recalled that the EGF technique is based on the assumption of linearity. If conditions are such that this assumption cannot be maintained, the EGF technique should be combined with non-linear geotechnical methods.  相似文献   

BOOK REVIEWS     

《The Professional geographer》1986,38(2):195-222

Book Reviewed in this article: The Vanishing Farmland Crisis, Critical Views of the Movement to Preserve Agricultural Land . John Baden Protecting Farmlands . Frederick R. Steiner and John E. Theilacker Ecological Effects of Fire in South African Ecosystems . Peter de V. Booysen and Neil M. Tainton Geography in China . Wu Chuanjun , Wang Nailiang , Lin Chao and Zhao Songqiao Resource Inventory and Baseline Study Methods for Developing Countries . Francis Conant , Peter Rogers , Marion Baumgardner , Cyrus Mc Kell , Raymond Dasmann, and Priscilla Reining Principles of Remote Sensing . Paul J. Curran Famine As A Geographical Phenomenon . Bruce Currey and Graeme Hugo The Suburban Squeeze: Land Conversion and Regulation in the San Francisco Bay Area . David E. Dowall Senses of Place . John Eyles Uneven Development and the Geographical Transfer of Value . D. K. Forbes and P. J. Rimmer Issues in Wilderness Management . Michael Frome Land-use and Prehistory in South-east Spain , The London Research Series in Geography 8. Antonio Gilman and John B. Thornes with Stephen Wise Regions in Question, Space, Development Theory and Regional Policy . Charles Gore The Colorado River: Instability and Basin Management . William L. Graf Hazardous Waste Sites: The Credibility Gap . Michael R. Greenberg and Richard F. Anderson Peasants, Subsistence Ecology, and Development in the Highlands of Papua New Guinea . Lawrence S. Grossman Silver Cities: The Photography of American Urbanization, 1839-1915 Peter B. Hales Silicon Landscapes . Peter Hall and Ann Markusen Remaking Ibieca: Rural Life in Aragon under Franco . Susan F. Harding The European Energy Challenge: East and West . George W. Hoffman The Global Climate . John T. Houghton The Urban Jobless in Eastern Africa . Abel G. M. Ishumi . The Tourist: Travel in Twentieth-Century North America . John A. Jakle City and Society: An Outline for Urban Geography . R. J. Johnston Residential Segregation, The State and Constitutional Conflict in American Urban Areas . R. J. Johnston Accessibility and Utilization: Geographical Perspectives on Health Care Delivery . Alun E. Joseph and David R. Phillips To the Heart of Asia: The Life of Sven Hedin . George Kish North American Culture , Vol 1. Ary J. Lamme III Past and Present in the Americas: A Compendium of Recent Studies . John Lynch Ethnicity in Contemporary America: A Geographical Appraisal . Jesse O. Mc Kee The Shell Countryside Book . Richard Muir and Eric Duffey 1990 Planning Conference Series. Proceedings of the National Geographic Areas Conference . Proceedings of the Regional Geographic Areas Conferences Wood, Brick, and Stone: The North American Settlement Landscape . Vol. 2: Barns and Farm Structures . Allen G. Noble Bangladesh: Biography of a Muslim Nation . Charles Peter O'donnell  相似文献   

BOOK REVIEWS     

《The Professional geographer》1983,35(4):488-524

Book Reviewed in this article: Main Street: Northeastern Oregon: The Founding and Development of Small Towns . Barbara Ruth Bailey . Food Politics: The Regional Conflict . David N. Balaam and Michael J. Carey , eds. The International Economy and Industrial Development: Trade and Investment in the Third World . R. Ballance , J. Ansari and H. Singer . Neighborhoods in Urban America . Ronald H. Bayor , ed. The English Heartland . By Robert Beckinsale and Monica Beckinsale . Regional Dimensions of Industrial Policy . Michael E. Bell and Paul S. Lande , eds. Tension Areas of the World . D. Gordon Bennett , ed. Latin America: an Introductory Survey . B. W. Blouet and O. M. Blouet , eds. Integration and Division: Geographical Perspectives on the Northern Ireland Problem . Frederick W. Boal and J. Neville H. Douglas , eds. Energy and Land Use . Robert W. Burchell and David Listokin , eds. Slopes and Weathering . Michael Clarke and John Small . Alaska's Rural Development . Peter G. Cornwall and Gerald Mc Beath , eds. The Politics of Park Design: A History of Urban Parks in America . Galen Cranz . World Congress on Land Policy, 1980, Proceedings . Matthew Cullen and Sharon Woolery , eds. Oregon Divided: A Regional Geography . Samuel N. Dicken and Emily F. Dicken . Urban Food Marketing and Third World Rural Development . T. Scarlett Epstein . South Africa: Spatial Frameworks for Development . T. J. D. Fair . Institutions and Geographical Patterns . Robin Flowerdew , ed. Industrialization of U.S. Agriculture, An Interpretive Atlas . Howard F. Gregor . Planning Theory: Prospects for the 1980s . Patsy Healy , Glen Mc Dougall and Michael J. Thomas , eds. Neighborhood Mobilization: Redevelopment and Response . Jeffrey R. Henig . The American Urban System: A Geographical Perspective . R. J. Johnston . Climate, History and the Modern World . Hubert H. Lamb . Climate and History: Studies in Past Climates and Their Impact on Man . T. M. L. Wigley , M. J. Ingram and G. Farmer . China: Railways and Agricultural Development, 1875–1935 . Ernest P. Liang . A Desirable Energy Future—A National Perspective . Robert S. Livingston , T. D. Anderson , T. M. Besmann , M. Olszewski , A. M. Perry , and C. D. West . Topothesia: Essays Presented to T. S. Ó Máille . B. S. Mac Aodha , ed. Transportation for the Poor: Research in Rural Mobility . Hal S. Maggied . Land Uses in American Cities . Harold M. Mayer and Charles R. Haves . Industrial Organisation and Location . Philip Mc Dermott and Michael Taylor . Human Adaptability: an Introduction to Ecological Anthropology . Emilio F. Moran . Regional Analysis and the New International Division of Labor . Frank Moulaert and Patricia W. Salinas , eds. The Nuclear War Atlas. Victoriaville, Quebec, Canada : Urbanization and Environmental Quality . Isao Orishimo . The Garden of Eden: The Botanic Garden and the Re-Creation of Paradise . John Prest . Earthfire, The Eruption of Mount St. Helens . Charles Rosenfeld and Robert Cooke . Contest for the South China Sea . Marwyn S. Samuels . The Future of the Wetlands: Assessing Visual-Cultural Values . Richard C. Smardon , ed. Tucson: the Life and Times of An American City. C. L. Sonnichsen . The Geography of Multinationals . Michael Taylor and Nigel Thrift , eds. Impact of Marine Pollution on Society . Virginia Tippie and Dana Kester . Reviving the Industrial City: the Politics of Urban Renewal in Lyon and Birmingham . Jerry A. Webman . Andean Reflections: Letters from Carl O. Sauer While on a South American Trip under a Grant from the Rockefeller Foundation, 1942 . Robert C. West , ed. Cartographic Drawing with Computers . P. Yoeli .  相似文献   

Placement Optimization Method of FPSO Gas Detectors Based on Leakage Risk     

KANG Jichuan  SUN Chongwen  JIN Peng  YAN Fasuo  SUN Liping 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2022,21(1):49-61

As the first step of the fire/gas-detection systems of floating production storage and offloading(FPSO)units is to iden-tify leakage accidents,gas detectors play an important role in controlling the leakage risk.To improve the leakage scenario detection rate and reduce the cumulative risk value,this paper presents an optimization method of the gas detector placement.The probability density distribution and cumulative probability density distribution of the leakage source variables and environmental variables were calculated based on the Offshore Reliability Data and the statistical data of the relevant leakage variables.A potential leakage sce-nario set was constructed using Latin hypercube sampling.The typical FPSO leakage scenarios were analyzed through computational fluid dynamics(CFD),and the impacts of different parameters on the leakage were addressed.A series of detectors was deployed according to the simulation results.The minimization of the product of effective detection time and gas leakage volume was the risk optimization objective,and the location and number of detectors were taken as decision variables.A greedy extraction heuristic algo-rithm was used to solve the optimization problem.The results show that the optimized placement had a better monitoring effect on the leakage scenario.  相似文献   

Autonomy in a post-neoliberal era: Community water governance in Cochabamba,Bolivia     

《Geoforum》2015

Bolivia’s leftward political shift, which is frequently described as “post-neoliberal,” is crucially linked to the ideal of autonomy. While autonomy has a long history among leftist theorists and social movements in Latin America, its contemporary importance is related to an ongoing effort on the part of scholars and activists to identify an alternative organizational form that eschews both state actors and private entities. Drawing on fieldwork conducted with a group of community-run water systems in peri-urban Cochabamba, this paper asks what autonomous water governance looks like in practice. By presenting a case in which the community water systems made a series of structurally limited “autonomous” decisions that ultimately bound them more closely to the local state and private sector, the paper argues that autonomy faces socio-ecological limitations when conceptualized as a project of internal self-governance. Socio-ecological processes take place at multiple scales and over long time spans; a radical politics of autonomy therefore necessitates a spatially extroverted project that focuses on building strategic alliances that strengthen community autonomy in the long-term.  相似文献   

Preliminary analysis of the development of the Carbon Tracker system in Latin America and the Caribbean     

《Atmósfera》2014,27(1):61-76

The Carbon Tracker system will play a major role in understanding CO₂ sinks and sources, gas exchange between the atmosphere and oceans, and gas emissions from forest fres and fossil fuels in Latin America and the Caribbean. This paper discusses the trends in carbon fluxes in the biosphere and ocean, as well as emissions from forest fres and fossil fuel use in the above-mentioned region, using the Carbon Tracker (CT) system. From 2000 to 2009, the mean carbon fluxes for the biosphere, fossil fuel use, wildfires and the ocean in Latin America and the Caribbean were −0.03, 0.41, 0.296, −0.061 Pg C/yr, respectively, and −0.02, 0.117, 0.013, −0.003 Pg C/yr, respectively, in Mexico. The mean net carbon flux for Latin America and the Caribbean was 0.645 Pg C/yr, and 0.126 Pg C/yr for Mexico. The terrestrial sinks in Latin America and the Caribbean are dominated by the forest, agricultural, grass and shrub regions, as well as the Andes mountain range and the net surface-atmosphere fluxes including fossil fuel are dominant in regions around large cities in Mexico, Brazil, Chile, and areas undergoing deforestation along the Amazon River. The results confirm that forest fres are an important source of CO₂ in Latin America and the Caribbean. In addition, we can confirm that policies encouraging the use of ethanol in light vehicles in Brazil have helped to decrease carbon emissions from fossil fuel, and assume the effects of the Proárbol program on carbon sinks from the biosphere and from fire emissions sources in Mexico. Based on this analysis, we are confident that the CT system will play a major role in Latin America and the Caribbean as a scientific tool to understand the uptake and release of CO₂ from terrestrial ecosystems, fossil fuel use and the oceans, and for long-term monitoring of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations.  相似文献