高分辨率模式雷达回波预报能力分析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

刘静  才奎志  谭政华 《气象》2019,45(12):1710-1717

利用2018年7—8月GRAPES_3 km、东北短临(WRFRUC)高分辨率模式综合雷达回波预报数据和辽宁省SWAN雷达组合反射率(MCR)实况,基于邻域法FSS评分指数,分析模式在台风北上和副热带高压边缘暴雨过程中的雷达回波预报能力。结果表明:两家模式在不同降水过程中对小阈值雷达回波有较好的预报技巧,随着回波量级增大,模式预报FSS逐渐减小,雷达回波55 dBz时,FSS甚至为0。当邻域半径是3时,35 dBz以下的回波预报中GRAPES模式在台风北上暴雨中的预报技巧低于副热带高压边缘,35 dBz则相反。WRFRUC模式始终表现为台风北上暴雨中预报较好。当邻域半径9时,WRFRUC模式在台风暴雨中的FSS评分高于GRAPES模式,GRAPES模式在副热带高压暴雨中的FSS评分始终高于WRFRUC模式。GRAPES和WRFRUC模式的最大FSS评分技巧均出现在邻域半径是11时,分别为0.239和0.195。GRAPES模式中FSS评分在12 h逐小时预报中前3个时次较强,WRFRUC模式则表现为中间时次强,两头弱。  相似文献   

中国农业气象模式(CAMM1.0)构建与应用          下载免费PDF全文

马玉平  霍治国  王培娟  俄有浩  邬定荣  房世波  谭凯炎  张祎  孙琳丽  杨建莹  赵俊芳  周梦子  赫迪  徐嘉昕  毛飞  姜朝阳 《应用气象学报》2019,30(5):528-542

为发展适宜中国区域农业种植特点的农业气象模式,基于国外作物生长模拟方法,通过模式机理过程改进或重构以及应用方式革新,建立了中国农业气象模式（Chinese AgroMeteorological Model version 1.0,CAMM1.0）。CAMM1.0利用平均温度和土壤水分改进了作物发育进程模式,利用土壤水分改进了作物叶片光合作用、干物质分配和叶面积扩展过程模式,通过蒸发比法扩展了作物蒸散过程模式;自主建立了基于发育进程的冬小麦株高、基于遥感信息的作物灌溉、遥感数据同化、作物长势与灾害评价等模式。基于互联网技术构造了实时运转平台,主要功能包括作物生长过程实时常规模拟与用户个性化定制模拟。CAMM1.0的部分子模式采用多种方法构造,便于多模式集成。CAMM1.0对作物发育进程、光合过程、株高的模拟效果较好,但对土壤水分变化过程的拟合略差,模拟产量略偏低。CAMM1.0评价淮河流域夏玉米年际干旱减弱而涝渍增加的趋势与实际基本相符。  相似文献   

福建省晋江市城市热岛强度时空变化特征分析     

王可心  陈粲  包云轩  吕青  奴开 《热带气象学报》2019,35(6):852-864

利用传统的气象站法, 结合空间统计学方法(普通克里金插值法), 对福建省晋江市2010—2014年40个自动气象站逐小时温度资料加以计算处理, 分析了晋江市年、季、昼夜热岛强度时空变化规律。(1)晋江市年、季、昼夜热岛强度都呈带状分布, 等值线呈西南-东北走向, 年、季、昼夜变化趋势显著, 北部热岛强度高于南部。五年间热岛强度持续增强, 但增幅不大, 增速放缓。(2)城市化水平的提高, 会导致热岛强度高值出现季节提前, 故旅游区秋冬季热岛强度高于春夏季, 中心城区和产业经济区夏秋季热岛强度高于冬春季。(3)晋江市热岛效应昼夜空间分布格局差异性大, 夜间热岛强度显著高于白天, 最低值出现在14—16时, 中心城区和产业经济区最低值出现时间较旅游区略推迟, 三个功能区的最高值均出现在凌晨。   相似文献   

Simulation and Validation of the Aerosol Optical Thicknessover China in 2006     

ZHANG Hu  ZHANG Min  CUI Zhenlei  WANG Yuesi  XIN Jinyuan 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2012,26(3):330-344

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A comparison of frameworks for separating the impacts of human activities and climate change on river flow in existing records and different near-future scenarios     

Soghra Andaryani  Vahid Nourani  James Ball  Saeed Jahanbakhsh Asl  Hamidreza Keshtkar  Dennis Trolle 《水文研究》2021,35(7):e14301

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Comparison of long-, medium- and short-term variations of beach profiles with and without submerged geological control     

J.J. Muñoz-Perez  R. Medina 《Coastal Engineering》2010

Victoria Beach (Cadiz, Spain) comprises a rocky flat outcrop in its northern zone and a sand-rich southern zone. These natural features allowed for a 5-year monitoring period and subsequent analysis of two different profiles (one in each zone) based on differences in bottom contours. Topo-bathymetric data were analysed using empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) to determine changes over the short-, medium- and long-term. Several morphologic phenomena were identified (generalised erosion, seasonal or summer–winter tilting of the profile around different hinge points, berm development and its posterior destruction, etc.) in terms of their importance in explaining the variability of the collected data for both profiles. It is worth mentioning that both profiles undergo parallel regression in the medium-term. Thus, the 1st eigenfunction enabled us to identify the true regression of the beach shoreline, independent of seasonal or summer–winter slope changes. Reconstruction of profiles using EOF components demonstrated that though accretion periods in the medium-term were similar for both types of profiles, the accretion speed was much faster in the sand-rich profile than in the reef-protected profile (1.01 m³/day versus 0.33 m³/day). Moreover, the seasonal erosion rate and the subsequent shoreline retreat for the sand-rich profile were much larger than for the reef-protected profile (121 m³/year versus 29 m³/year). Analysis in the short-term (changes induced by a single day's storm) showed an instantaneous tilting of the profile, with the mobilised sand volume being much greater for the sand-rich than for the reef-protected profile (68 m³/m versus 12 m³/m).  相似文献   

Investigation of highly efficient algorithms for solving linear equations in the discontinuous deformation analysis method          下载免费PDF全文

Xiaodong Fu  Qian Sheng  Yonghui Zhang  Jian Chen 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2016,40(4):469-486

Large‐scale engineering computing using the discontinuous deformation analysis (DDA) method is time‐consuming, which hinders the application of the DDA method. The simulation result of a typical numerical example indicates that the linear equation solver is a key factor that affects the efficiency of the DDA method. In this paper, highly efficient algorithms for solving linear equations are investigated, and two modifications of the DDA programme are presented. The first modification is a linear equation solver with high efficiency. The block Jacobi (BJ) iterative method and the block conjugate gradient with Jacobi pre‐processing (Jacobi‐PCG) iterative method are introduced, and the key operations are detailed, including the matrix‐vector product and the diagonal matrix inversion. Another modification consists of a parallel linear equation solver, which is separately constructed based on the multi‐thread and CPU‐GPU heterogeneous platforms with OpenMP and CUDA, respectively. The simulation results from several numerical examples using the modified DDA programme demonstrate that the Jacobi‐PCG is a better iterative method for large‐scale engineering computing and that adoptive parallel strategies can greatly enhance computational efficiency. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Numerical analysis of the effect of natural microcracks on the supercritical CO2 fracturing crack network of shale rock based on bonded particle models          下载免费PDF全文

Peihuo Peng  Yang Ju  Yongliang Wang  Shaoqin Wang  Feng Gao 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2017,41(18):1992-2013

The problem of predicting the geometric structure of induced fractures is highly complex and significant in the fracturing stimulation of rock reservoirs. In the traditional continuous fracturing models, the mechanical properties of reservoir rock are input as macroscopic quantities. These models neglect the microcracks and discontinuous characteristics of rock, which are important factors influencing the geometric structure of the induced fractures. In this paper, we simulate supercritical CO₂ fracturing based on the bonded particle model to investigate the effect of original natural microcracks on the induced‐fracture network distribution. The microcracks are simulated explicitly as broken bonds that form and coalesce into macroscopic fractures in the supercritical CO₂ fracturing process. A calculation method for the distribution uniformity index (DUI) is proposed. The influence of the total number and DUI of initial microcracks on the mechanical properties of the rock sample is studied. The DUI of the induced fractures of supercritical CO₂ fracturing and hydraulic fracturing for different DUIs of initial microcracks are compared, holding other conditions constant. The sensitivity of the DUI of the induced fractures to that of initial natural microcracks under different horizontal stress ratios is also probed. The numerical results indicate that the distribution of induced fractures of supercritical CO₂ fracturing is more uniform than that of common hydraulic fracturing when the horizontal stress ratio is small.  相似文献   

An improved SPH method for saturated soils and its application to investigate the mechanisms of embankment failure: Case of hydrostatic pore‐water pressure     

Ha H. Bui  Ryoichi Fukagawa 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2013,37(1):31-50

The method of smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) has recently been applied to computational geomechanics and has been shown to be a powerful alternative to the standard numerical method, that is, the finite element method, for handling large deformation and post‐failure of geomaterials. However, very few studies apply the SPH method to model saturated or submerged soil problems. Our recent studies of this matter revealed that significant errors may be made if the gradient of the pore‐water pressure is handled using the standard SPH formulation. To overcome this problem and to enhance the SPH applications to computational geomechanics, this article proposes a general SPH formulation, which can be applied straightforwardly to dry and saturated soils. For simplicity, the current work assumes hydrostatic pore‐water pressure. It is shown that the proposed formulation can remove the numerical error mentioned earlier. Moreover, this formulation automatically satisfies the dynamic boundary conditions at a submerged ground surface, thereby saving computational cost. Discussions on the applications of the standard and new SPH formulations are also given through some numerical tests. Furthermore, techniques to obtain the correct SPH solution are also proposed and discussed throughout. As an application of the proposed method, the effect of the dilatancy angle on the failure mechanism of a two‐sided embankment subjected to a high groundwater table is presented and compared with that of other solutions. Finally, the proposed formulation can be considered a basic formulation for further developments of SPH for saturated soils. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Coral assemblages and reef growth in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (Western Pacific Ocean)     

Peter Houk  Robert Van Woesik 《Marine Ecology》2010,31(2):318-329

Reef development varies considerably around the high, raised‐limestone islands of the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI). Here we examine the modern assemblages at 30 sites for coral composition, colony density, colony size, and fidelity. We defined four reef types and hypothesize the presence of environmentally driven ecological stasis, whereby the environment continuously selects for coral species membership, defines colony sizes, and over time creates the noted reef types. Our results show that constructional spur‐and‐groove reefs supported significantly larger coral‐colony sizes and higher coral species richness compared with high‐relief interstitial framework, low‐relief incipient, and non‐constructional coral assemblages. Non‐constructional reefs supported much smaller coral colony sizes, despite similar population densities, and were consistently found in association with high wave exposure. The distinct coral assemblages found on interstitial framework and low‐relief incipient reefs were not affiliated with any wave exposure regime, but were located adjacent to large watersheds and on islands with unique geological history. These assemblages were nested within the spur‐and‐groove species pool. Overall, modern coral cover was well predicted by bathymetric slope and watershed size, while species richness was additively influenced by two proxies of pollution, suggesting the latter is better suited for establishing management targets. In contrast with previous studies that suggested modern assemblages were biologically controlled in the CNMI, we show reef assemblages and reef development are highly influenced by long‐term environmental forcing.  相似文献