气候突变的聚类分析   总被引：9，自引：2，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

程乾生  朱迎善 《地球物理学报》1998,41(3):308-314

气候数据是时间序列,是一类有序样品．本文给出了一种新的有序样品谱系聚类算法,先对数据进行平滑拟合,然后用聚类分析的方法分析了北半球的气候资料,证实了1920年为气候突变点．同时也找到了较低的各个层次上的突变点．  相似文献   

Internal testing of a numerical model of hillslope–channel coupling using laboratory flume experiments     

Katerina Michaelides  John Wainwright 《水文研究》2008,22(13):2274-2291

The numerical model COUP 2D simulates the hydrological coupling between hillslopes and the river channel during a rainfall event. In order to test the numerical model, a 1:100 scaled laboratory flume which was modified to incorporate lateral hillslope elements, was used to run a series of experiments in which hillslope angle, channel angle, hillslope discharge and channel discharge were the varying parameters. Overall, there were 18 different experimental configurations with three replicates carried out for each condition, leading to a total of 54 experiments. These conditions were then used to parameterize and run COUP 2D. Internal model outputs of flow depth and flow velocity at four cross‐sections in the channel were compared to the measurements made in the physical model for the same parameter conditions. Statistical comparisons of the measured and modelled data were carried out for each experiment and across all experiments, using two goodness‐of‐fit measures—root mean square error and Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency—in order to assess the performance of the model over an entire simulation as well as over all the simulations. The main effects on the goodness‐of‐fit measures for flow depth of each experimental variable, as well as the interactions between variables, were evaluated using statistical modelling. The results show that the model captures flow‐depth variations in response to changing channel and hillslope parameters. Statistical modelling suggests that the main effects on model error are cross‐section position, channel angle and channel discharge. Significant interactions also occur between all the channel variables and between the channel variables and hillslope discharge. The results of the testing procedure have significant implications for the consideration of different model components and for the interaction between data‐ and model evaluation. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Governance fit for climate change in a Caribbean coastal-marine context     

《Marine Policy》2015

Coastal-marine systems in small island developing states of the Caribbean are highly vulnerable to both current and future climate change. Societies navigate these changes in part through processes of governance and the institutions through which governance takes place. The concept of institutional adaptive capacity is used to explore how governance processes and institutional arrangements can be adapted to match the scale and extent of climate change in a case study of the Soufriere Marine Management Area, St. Lucia. Institutional adaptive capacity is analyzed based on the following factors: institutional variety, analytical deliberation and nesting and networks. The analysis is based on 36 semi-structured interviews conducted with key informants from NGOs, cooperatives, management authorities and government agencies. The findings suggest that governance to address climate change in the case study is contingent upon developing holistic, integrated management systems, improving flexibility in existing collaborative decision making processes, augmenting the capacity of local management authorities with support from higher-level government, exploring opportunities for private–social partnerships, and developing adequate social–environmental monitoring programs. These findings have potential implications and lessons for similar settings throughout the Caribbean.  相似文献   

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杨厚丽  邹彤  郭唐永  刘延飞 《大地测量与地球动力学》2015,35(2):346-348

?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????и??????????????????????????????λ??????????????????????????÷??????????????????????g?????????????????÷?????????????10^??3?? μGal??????????????  相似文献   

Simulation of probability distributions commonly used in hydrological frequency analysis     

Ke‐Sheng Cheng  Jie‐Lun Chiang  Chieh‐Wei Hsu 《水文研究》2007,21(1):51-60

Random variable simulation has been applied to many applications in hydrological modelling, flood risk analysis, environmental impact assessment, etc. However, computer codes for simulation of distributions commonly used in hydrological frequency analysis are not available in most software libraries. This paper presents a frequency‐factor‐based method for random number generation of five distributions (normal, log–normal, extreme‐value type I, Pearson type III and log‐Pearson type III) commonly used in hydrological frequency analysis. The proposed method is shown to produce random numbers of desired distributions through three means of validation: (1) graphical comparison of cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) and empirical CDFs derived from generated data; (2) properties of estimated parameters; (3) type I error of goodness‐of‐fit test. An advantage of the method is that it does not require CDF inversion, and frequency factors of the five commonly used distributions involves only the standard normal deviate. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

气象风险源的社会关注度风险等级分析方法   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

罗慧  李良序  张彦宇  刘璐  李社宏  李彩莲 《气象》2008,34(5):9-13

为了定量分析社会公众对气象风险关注等级程度以及对应等级的关注人数,综合应用模糊数学和多项式拟合方法,以西安市2004年1月至2007年10月,与当地公众生活关系密切的5类高影响天气事件,即:高温、雷暴、大到暴雨、中雨和小雨,作为潜在气象风险源,综合应用12121气象信息服务电话拨打次数和气象信息,计算出气象风险超越概率,通过对其4次多项式的拟合和求解,定量计算了一般、中、高三等级的气象风险关注度以及对应等级的关注人数.这有利于政府决策者及社会公众在响应气象风险时有较为定量的判断.  相似文献   

甘肃金川矿区构造应力场与构造演化研究          下载免费PDF全文

和秋姣  赖健清  毛先成  肖文舟  艾启兴  刘烨  杜日俊 《地质找矿论丛》2019,34(2):265-273

文章统计分析了金川矿区内地层和侵入体中的节理构造,对矿区内的共轭剪节理进行配套、分期,综合区域构造演化史后分析了矿区构造应力场。研究表明,金川矿区从新太古代到古生代至少受到4期古构造应力的作用。第一期构造应力场为NS向的挤压,由阴山陆块与鄂尔多斯陆块碰撞形成华北古陆西部陆块引起。第二期构造应力场为NE-SW向的挤压,与华北克拉通东、西陆块碰撞拼合并参与Columbia超大陆拼合事件有关;其后阿拉善陆块与华南陆块参与Rodinia超大陆拼合事件,应力场持续作用。第三期构造应力场为近NS向的挤压,由祁连洋不断向北俯冲引起。第四期构造应力场为NNE-SSW向的挤压,与祁连造山带发生的强烈造山运动有关。  相似文献   

北京公交就业可达性及其地区和人群差异   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

孙铁山  范颖玲  齐云蕾 《地理科学进展》2018,37(8):1066-1074

运用经济普查、人口普查数据和基于百度地图的公交出行时间数据,分析北京都市区基于公共交通的就业可达性及其在城市不同人群和地区间的差异。结果表明：北京都市区的居民可在60分钟内通过公共交通到达18.3%的都市区工作岗位,这比美国100个最大的都市区的平均就业可达性水平要高,接近于美国纽约都市区的就业可达性水平。同时,由于就业郊区化程度有限和以中心—放射式布局的公交网络,北京都市区内的公交就业可达性存在着巨大的区域差异,中心城区的就业可达性远远高于郊区。此外,人口居住的郊区化程度远远高于就业的郊区化程度,导致北京都市区宏观层面的职住不平衡。随着人口居住郊区化程度的提高,公共交通如何服务居住日益分散的人口,提高就业可达性,是一项巨大的挑战。研究还发现,由于城市中心区的大部分就业为高技术的就业岗位,因此高受教育程度人口能更多地享受目前公共交通系统的便利,而受教育程度低的人口和外来人口公交就业可达性较低。为解决弱势群体所面临的就业可达性的不平等问题,需要更多的规划与政策干预。  相似文献   

大桥水库地震遥测台网持续时间震级的研制     

赵珠  吴今生  谢蓉华  王登伟  王松 《四川地震》1999,(3):18-24

由于大桥水库地震台网各子台台基和地下结构的特殊性, 造成震级计算上的较大偏差。为此, 利用该台网各子台同一型号地震仪的垂直向速度量记录, 测量了震级为０５ ～５４ 的４６２ 次地震的振动持续时间, 制作了该台网的持续时间震级公式和便查表。在方法上, 不同于通常的按一次或二次曲线的拟合, 而采取计算机自动分段按折线拟合的方法, 以阻尼最小二乘法完成其计算。先进行分台拟合, 比较异同之后, 合并数据再拟合, 最后给出了适宜于鲁坝、瓦吉木两台和大石头、凉风岗、瓦坡支和彝海子４ 个台使用的两套平均持续时间公式和便查表, 以供大桥水库地震台网测震分析使用。  相似文献   

Seismicity acceleration model and its application to several earthquake regions in China     

WEN-ZHENG YANG 《地震学报(英文版)》1999,12(1):35-45

With the theory of subcritical crack growth, we can deduce the fundamental equation of regional seismicity acceleration model. Applying this model to intraplate earthquake regions, we select three earthquake subplates: North China Subplate, Chuan-Dian Block and Xinjiang Subplate, and divide the three subplates into seven researched regions by the difference of seismicity and tectonic conditions. With the modified equation given by Sornette and Sammis (1995), we analysis the seismicity of each region. To those strong earthquakes already occurred in these region, the model can give close fitting of magnitude and occurrence time, and the result in this article indicates that the seismicity acceleration model can also be used for describing the seismicity of intraplate. In the article, we give the magnitude and occurrence time of possible strong earthquakes in Shanxi, Ordos, Bole-Tuokexun, Ayinke-Wuqia earthquake regions. In the same subplate or block, the earthquake periods for each earthquake region are similar in time interval. The constant αin model can be used to describe the intensity of regional seismicity, and for the Chinese Mainland, α is 0.4 generally. To the seismicity in Taiwan and other regions with complex tectonic conditions, the model does not fit well at present.  相似文献