Uncertainty of the Linear Trend in the Zonal SST Gradient Across the Equatorial Pacific Since 1881     

Chan Zhang  Youmin Tang  Jun Ying  Junde Li 《大气与海洋》2019,57(1):61-72

The change in the zonal sea surface temperature gradient (ZSSTG) across the equatorial Pacific plays an important role in the global climate system. However, there has not yet been a consensual conclusion about the changing ZSSTG at either a short-term (from 20 to 90 years) or a long-term time scale (longer than 90 years) in the literature. In this study, the uncertainty of the trend in ZSSTG for different sub-periods since 1881 was examined using four interpolated datasets and four un-interpolated datasets. It was found that the trend in ZSSTG on the short-term time scale could be significantly influenced by internal variability such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. On the long-term time scale, the sign of the ZSSTG trend depends on the dataset used. In particular, it was not possible to draw a uniform conclusion about the secular trends in ZSSTG in recent history, given the high sensitivity of the ZSSTG trends to the period, dataset, and regions used to calculate the trends. Our results imply that it may not be possible to detect the response of ZSSTG to global warming until a longer data record becomes available in the future.  相似文献   

非平稳条件下北京市最大月降水量频率特征分析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

韩丽  黄俊雄  周娜  李超 《水文》2021,41(2):32-37,108

为探究气候变化下极端降水的频率变化特征,基于北京市22个雨量站实测月降水量数据,以时间为协变量构建平稳和非平稳GEV模型,对北京市最大月降水量序列(极值降水序列)进行模拟和频率分析,并采用Bootstrap方法对频率分析结果的不确定性进行评价.结果表明:所有极值降水序列的最优概率分布模型均为非平稳GEV模型,该模型能够...  相似文献   

A comparative analysis of metiers and catch profiles for some French demersal and pelagic fleets     

Marchal  Paul 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2008,65(4):674-686

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陈志遥  李树德 《大地测量与地球动力学》2008,28(3):112-117

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基于模糊理论的时空数据模型及算法解决     

陈珺 《测绘与空间地理信息》2009,32(1)

针对当前时空数据模型中存在的主要问题,本文提出了一种基于模糊理论的时空数据模型.该模型从时空对象演化的角度出发,结合模糊隶属度的概念,力求精确表达对象演化的整个过程及对象之间的相互关系.在此基础上,进一步分析了该模型的数据结构以及算法解决,为时空数据模型的研究提供了新的思路.  相似文献   

Water quality modeling and sensitivity analysis using Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP) in the Shenandoah River watershed     

Mbongowo J. Mbuh  Richard Mbih  Comfort Wendi 《自然地理学》2019,40(2):127-148

This study used the Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP) to simulate nutrients, dissolved oxygen (DO), and chlorophyll-a dynamics in the Shenandoah River basin and performed an uncertainty analysis to examine the complexity of these variables in water quality estimation and their influence on the Shenandoah River. Significant progress has been made; however, nutrient loads emitted into the Shenandoah River from nonpoint sources remain high. Modeling of three points on the Shenandoah River in Virginia and West Virginia provides an ideal case study since the river is classified by the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality as being impaired. The results of a sensitivity test show that model error decreases with increasing model complexity and sensitivity. The model predicted DO values that tended to be close to the measured data, while total nitrogen and phosphorus tended to be overemphasized. Our results examine the importance of temperature, stream flow, and velocity in influencing water quality between seasons and levels on the different sections of the watershed.  相似文献   

Uncertainty analysis of soil-pile interactions of monopile offshore wind turbine support structures     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

The objective of this work is to study the uncertainties involved in the modelling of the soil-pile interaction concerning their influence on the prediction of the dynamic structural response of monopile offshore wind turbine support structures. Two main issues are identified and addressed: the adequacy of the method used to deal with the soil-pile interactions and the adequacy of the soil properties reflecting the behaviour of the soil. The present study develops an approach that defines the penetrated pile length depending on the soil profile. Also, a parameter is defined to avoid the excessive usage of steel for the penetrated pile structure. The uncertainties are included in the probabilistic free vibration analysis and the contribution of each random variable to the scatter of the response is estimated by performing a sensitivity analysis. The results indicate that the uncertainty involved in the modelling of the soil profile has a significant effect on the coefficient of variance of the natural frequency, which is a serious issue to be considered in the fatigue life assessment of offshore wind turbine support structures.  相似文献   

江河入海流量在线监测不确定度评估方法研究与应用     

杨永俊  胡展铭  林忠胜  王玉 《海洋通报》2019,(3)

鉴于国内目前缺少流量在线监测不确定性评估方面的研究,针对江河入海流量在线监测过程中可能产生的各种不确定性,本文采用不确定度概念对不确定性进行评估,给出了不确定度的主要来源、各来源不确定度的评估方法,以及江河入海流量在线监测总不确定度评估模型,并应用该模型对辽河入海流量在线监测的不确定度进行了评估。  相似文献   

基于椭球不确定性的平差模型与算法     

宋迎春  夏玉国  谢雪梅 《测绘学报》2019,48(5):555-562

测量平差模型中的参数通常存在一些不确定的附加信息或先验信息,充分利用它们可以对部分参数进行约束,从而保证参数解的唯一性和稳定性。本文利用椭球集合描述不确定性,建立了一个新的带有椭球不确定性的平差模型。以两个椭球交集的外接椭球的特征矩阵的迹最小平差准则,分析了不确定度的传播规律,给出了带有椭球不确定性的平差方法。最后,通过算例验证了算法的有效性,说明了平差解与带权混合估计的关系。  相似文献   

海表面温度时空变异特征及对验证误差影响     

蒋锦刚  徐曜  聂晨晖  潘骁骏  周斌 《遥感学报》2019,23(2):336-348

海洋要素的变化存在明显的区域性和季节性的变化特性,本文选择海洋要素中最为突出的海表面温度(SST)要素作为主要分析参数,设计时空变异参数的计算指标,分析时空变异对验证误差影响的关系,通过研究及试验的数据精度验证,证明了时空变异是造成误差的直接原因之一。强烈的时空属性变异,在验证过程中会引入很大的验证误差,处于不同变异等级区划的数据,其验证结果相对误差可达13.08%,变异越剧烈的区域,精度验证效果越差,验证误差就越大,这些误差并非完全是遥感产品的误差,验证结果不具有代表性,不能真实的反映遥感产品的误差特征。对于SST等海洋遥感产品验证时,需要考虑时空变异对验证误差的影响和贡献,合理选择验证试验区域、代表性的评价数据集和科学的评价方法。  相似文献