Increasing flood risk under climate change: a pan-European assessment of the benefits of four adaptation strategies   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Lorenzo Alfieri  Luc Feyen  Giuliano Di Baldassarre 《Climatic change》2016,136(3-4):507-521

  相似文献   

Seismic displacement demand prediction in non-linear domain: Optimization of the N2 method     

Diana  Lorenzo  Manno  Andrea  Lestuzzi  Pierino 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2019,18(1):141-158

In Europe, computation of displacement demand for seismic assessment of existing buildings is essentially based on a simplified formulation of the N2 method as prescribed by Eurocode 8(EC8). However, a lack of accuracy of the N2 method in certain conditions has been pointed out by several studies. This paper addresses the assessment of effectiveness of the N2 method in seismic displacement demand determination in non-linear domain. The objective of this work is to investigate the accuracy of the N2 method through comparison with displacement demands computed using non-linear timehistory analysis(NLTHA). Results show that the original N2 method may lead to overestimation or underestimation of displacement demand predictions. This may affect results of mechanical model-based assessment of seismic vulnerability at an urban scale. Hence, the second part of this paper addresses an improvement of the N2 method formula by empirical evaluation of NLTHA results based on EC8 ground-classes. This task is formulated as a mathematical programming problem in which coefficients are obtained by minimizing the overall discrepancy between NLTHA and modified formula results. Various settings of the mathematical programming problem have been solved using a global optimization metaheuristic. An extensive comparison between the original N2 method formulation and optimized formulae highlights benefits of the strategy.  相似文献   

Effect of frictional heating and thermal advection on pre-seismic sliding: a numerical simulation using a rate-, state- and temperature-dependent friction law     

Salvatore de Lorenzo  Mariano Loddo 《Journal of Geodynamics》2010,49(1):1-13

Laboratory experiments on simulated faults in rocks clearly show the temperature dependence of dynamic rock friction. Since rocks surrounding faults are permeable, we have developed a numerical method to describe the thermo-mechanical evolution of the pre-seismic sliding phase which takes into account both the rate-, state- and temperature-dependent friction law and the heat advection term in the energy equation. We consider a laminar fluid motion perpendicular to a vertical fault plane and assume that fluids move away from the fault plane. A semi-analytical temperature solution which accounts for the variability of slip velocity and stress on the fault has been found. This solution has been generalized to the case of a time varying fluid velocity and then was used to include the thermal pressurization effect. After discretizing the temperature solution, the evolution of the system is obtained by the solution of a system of first order differential equations which allows us to determine the evolution of slip, slip rate, friction coefficient, effective normal stress, temperature and fluid velocity. The numerical solutions are found using a Runge-Kutta method with an adaptative stepsize control in time. When the thermal pressurization effects can be neglected, the heat advection effect gives rise to a delay, with respect to the purely conductive case, of the earthquake occurrence time. This delay increases with increasing permeability H of the system. When the thermal pressurization effects are taken into account the situation is opposite, i.e. the onset of instability tends to precede that of the purely conductive case. The advance in the time of occurrence of instability increases with increasing coefficient of thermal pressurization. In the small permeability range (H ≤ 10^?18 m²), the seismic moment and nucleation length of the pre-seismic phase are significantly smaller than those predicted by the purely conductive model.  相似文献   

A conceptual hydrogeological model of ophiolitic aquifers (serpentinised peridotite): The test example of Mt. Prinzera (Northern Italy)          下载免费PDF全文

Stefano Segadelli  Paolo Vescovi  Kei Ogata  Alessandro Chelli  Andrea Zanini  Tiziano Boschetti  Emma Petrella  Lorenzo Toscani  Alessandro Gargini  Fulvio Celico 《水文研究》2017,31(5):1058-1073

The main aim of this study is the experimental analysis of the hydrogeological behaviour of the Mt. Prinzera ultramafic massif in the northern Apennines, Italy. The analysed multidisciplinary database has been acquired through (a) geologic and structural survey; (b) geomorphologic survey; (c) hydrogeological monitoring; (d) physico‐chemical analyses; and (e) isotopic analyses. The ultramafic medium is made of several lithological units, tectonically overlapped. Between them, a low‐permeability, discontinuous unit has been identified. This unit behaves as an aquitard and causes a perched groundwater to temporary flow within the upper medium, close to the surface. This perched groundwater flows out along several structurally controlled depressions, and then several high‐altitude temporary springs can be observed during recharge, together with several perennial basal (i.e., low altitude) springs, caused by the compartmentalisation of the system because of high‐angle tectonic discontinuities.  相似文献   

Nonequilibrium Processes in the Solar Corona,Transition Region,Flares, and Solar Wind <Emphasis Type="Italic">(Invited Review)</Emphasis>     

Jaroslav Dudík  Elena Dzifčáková  Nicole Meyer-Vernet  Giulio Del Zanna  Peter R. Young  Alessandra Giunta  Barbara Sylwester  Janusz Sylwester  Mitsuo Oka  Helen E. Mason  Christian Vocks  Lorenzo Matteini  Säm Krucker  David R. Williams  Šimon Mackovjak 《Solar physics》2017,292(8):100

We review the presence and signatures of the non-equilibrium processes, both non-Maxwellian distributions and non-equilibrium ionization, in the solar transition region, corona, solar wind, and flares. Basic properties of the non-Maxwellian distributions are described together with their influence on the heat flux as well as on the rates of individual collisional processes and the resulting optically thin synthetic spectra. Constraints on the presence of high-energy electrons from observations are reviewed, including positive detection of non-Maxwellian distributions in the solar corona, transition region, flares, and wind. Occurrence of non-equilibrium ionization is reviewed as well, especially in connection to hydrodynamic and generalized collisional-radiative modeling. Predicted spectroscopic signatures of non-equilibrium ionization depending on the assumed plasma conditions are summarized. Finally, we discuss the future remote-sensing instrumentation that can be used for the detection of these non-equilibrium phenomena in various spectral ranges.  相似文献   

The tripole: A new coherent vortex structure of incompressible two-dimensional flows     

Lorenzo M. Polvani  Xavier J. Carton 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2013,107(1-4):87-102

Abstract

Using a contour dynamical algorithm, we have found rotating tripolar V-state solutions for the inviscid Euler equations in two-dimensions. We have studied their geometry as a function of their physical parameters. Their stability was investigated with the aid of contour surgery, and most of the states were found to be stable. Under finite-amplitude perturbations, tripoles are shown to either fission into two asymmetric dipoles or to evolve into a shielded axisymmetric vortex, demonstrating the existence of two new ‘‘reversible transitions'’ between topologically distinct coherent vortex structures. These dynamical results are confirmed by pseudo-spectral simulations, with which we also show how continuous tripolar long-lived coherent vortex structures can be generated in a variety of ways.  相似文献   

From China’s Heavy Precipitation in 2020 to a “Glocal” Hydrometeorological Solution for Flood Risk Prediction     

Huan WU  Xiaomeng LI  Guy J.-P.SCHUMANN  Lorenzo ALFIERI  Yun CHEN  Hui XU  Zhifang WU  Hong LU  Yamin HU  Qiang ZHU  Zhijun HUANG  Weitian CHEN  Ying HU 《大气科学进展》2021,38(1):1-7

The prolonged mei-yu/baiu system with anomalous precipitation in the year 2020 has swollen many rivers and lakes,caused flash flooding,urban flooding and landslides,and consistently wreaked havoc across large swathes of China,particularly in the Yangtze River basin.Significant precipitation and flooding anomalies have already been seen in magnitude and extension so far this year,which have been exerting much higher pressure on emergency responses in flood control and mitigation than in other years,even though a rainy season with multiple ongoing serious flood events in different provinces is not that uncommon in China.Instead of delving into the causes of the uniqueness of this year’s extreme precipitation-flooding situation,which certainly warrants in-depth exploration,in this article we provide a short view toward a more general hydrometeorological solution to this annual nationwide problem.A“glocal”(global to local)hydrometeorological solution for floods(GHS-F)is considered to be critical for better preparedness,mitigation,and management of different types of significant precipitation-caused flooding,which happen extensively almost every year in many countries such as China,India and the United States.Such a GHS-F model is necessary from both scientific and operational perspectives,with the strength in providing spatially consistent flood definitions and spatially distributed flood risk classification considering the heterogeneity in vulnerability and resilience across the entire domain.Priorities in the development of such a GHS-F are suggested,emphasizing the user’s requirements and needs according to practical experiences with various flood response agencies.  相似文献   

Physical and biological factors influencing the spatial distribution of age-0 walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) around the Pribilof Islands, Bering Sea     

Lorenzo Ciannelli  Richard D. Brodeur  Gordon L. Swartzman  Sigrid Salo 《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》2002,49(26):6109-6126

The waters around the Pribilof Islands, in the southeast Bering Sea, are a main nursery area for age-0 pollock. Each summer, the islands are surrounded by a well-mixed inshore region, separated from a stratified offshore region by a frontal zone. To study the spatial distribution of age-0 pollock around this frontal structure in relation to physical and biological factors that are likely to influence it, such as advection, age-0 pollock feeding, and predation, samples were collected during September of four consecutive years, 1994–97, along two transects. Samples collected included water column hydrography and currents, acoustic backscatter, and groundfish predator density.Our analysis suggested that different mechanisms may be involved in controlling age-0 pollock distribution north and south of the islands. On the shelf area north of the islands, high age-0 pollock density was significantly associated with areas of high potential for growth only in years or portions of the frontal transect in which predator numbers were relatively low, indicating the importance of predation in controlling fish distribution in this area. In contrast, south of the islands, age-0 pollock distribution was associated more with prey availability, which appeared to be determined by vertical spatial overlap between predators and prey. Moreover, south of the islands, the stronger geostrophic currents, typical of the slope region, were more likely to affect the overall standing biomass of juvenile pollock, by constantly advecting fish away from the area.  相似文献   

Spatial patterns of pollock and zooplankton distribution in the Pribilof Islands, Alaska nursery area and their relationship to pollock recruitment   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

Swartzman  Gordon; Napp  Jeffrey; Brodeur  Richard; Winter  Andreas; Ciannelli  Lorenzo 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2002,59(6):1167-1186

  相似文献   

Optimizing interpolation of shoot density data from a Posidonia oceanica seagrass bed   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Michele Scardi  Lorenzo A. Chessa  Eugenio Fresi  Antonio Pais  & Simone Serra 《Marine Ecology》2006,27(4):339-349

A case study on the optimization of Posidonia oceanica density interpolation, using a data set from a large meadow at Porto Conte Bay (NW Sardinia, Italy), is presented. Ordinary point kriging, cokriging and a weighted average based on inverse square distance were used to interpolate density data measured in 36 sampling stations. The results obtained from different methods were then compared by means of a leave‐one‐out cross‐validation procedure. The scale at which interpolation was carried out was defined on the basis of the Hausdorff dimension of the variogram. Optimizing spatial scale and data points search strategy allowed obtaining more accurate density estimates independently of the interpolation method.  相似文献