基于NCEP数据进行高度计湿对流层校正的探讨     

扈培信  范陈清  王进  王晶 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2011,(Z1):425-428

为达到高度计几厘米测高精度,湿对流层校正范围为3~45 cm,精确计算湿对流层校正是至关重要的。本文利用美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)数据,采用模型法计算高度计湿对流层校正。计算结果与无线电探空仪计算结果比较,偏差为0.01 cm,均方根为2 cm;与Jason-1模型法湿对流层校正产品比较,偏差为0.2 cm,均方根为1.4 cm。因此,利用NCEP数据计算高度计湿对流层校正精度较高,能够满足高度计大气湿对流层校正精度要求。为高度计大气湿对流层校正的计算提供1种新方法。  相似文献   

Feasibility Comparison of Reanalysis Data from NCEP-Ⅰ and NCEP-Ⅱ in the Himalayas   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

XIE Aihong  REN Jiawen  QIN Xiang  KANG Shichang 《山地科学学报》2009,6(1):56-65

Mt. Everest is often referred to as the earth＇s ＇third＇ pole. As such it is relatively inaccessible and little is known about its meteorology. In 2005, an automatic weather station was operated at North Col （28°1′ 0.95＂ N, 86°57′ 48.4＂ E, 6523 m a.s.l.） of Mt. Everest. Based on the observational data, this paper compares the reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR （hereafter NCEP-Ⅰ） and NCEP-DOE AMIP-Ⅱ （NCEP- Ⅱ）, in order to understand which reanalysis data are more suitable for the high Himalayas with Mr. Everest region. When comparing with those from the other levels, pressure interpolated from 500 hPa level is closer to the observation and can capture more synoptic-scale variability, which may be due to the very complex topography around Mt. Everest and the intricately complicated orographic land-atmosphereocean interactions. The interpolation from both NCEP-Ⅰ and NCEP-Ⅱ daily minimum temperature and daily mean pressure can capture most synopticscale variability （r〉0.82, n=83, p〈0.001）. However, there is difference between NCEP-Ⅰ and NCEP-Ⅱ reanalysis data because of different model parameterization. Comparing with the observation, the magnitude of variability was underestimated by 34.1%, 28.5 % and 27.1% for NCEP-Ⅰ temperature and pressure, and NCEP-Ⅱ pressure, respectively, while overestimated by 44.5 % for NCEP-Ⅱ temperature. For weather events interpolated from the reanalyzed data, NCEP-Ⅰ and NCEP-Ⅱ show the same features that weather events interpolated from pressure appear at the same day as those from the observation, and some events occur one day ahead, while most weather events and NCEP-Ⅱ temperature interpolated from NCEP-Ⅰ happen one day ahead of those from the observation, which is much important for the study on meteorology and climate changes in the region, and is very valuable from the view of improving the safety of climbers who attempt to climb Mt. Everest.  相似文献   

Using a mesoscale ensemble to predict forecast error and perform targeted observation   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

DU Jun  YU Rucong  CUI Chunguang  LI Jun 《海洋学报(英文版)》2014,33(1):83-91

Using NCEP short range ensemble forecast（SREF） system,demonstrated two fundamental on-going evolutions in numerical weather prediction（NWP） are through ensemble methodology.One evolution is the shift from traditional single-value deterministic forecast to flow-dependent（not statistical） probabilistic forecast to address forecast uncertainty.Another is from a one-way observation-prediction system shifting to an interactive two-way observation-prediction system to increase predictability of a weather system.In the first part,how ensemble spread from NCEP SREF predicting ensemble-mean forecast error was evaluated over a period of about a month.The result shows that the current capability of predicting forecast error by the 21-member NCEP SREF has reached to a similar or even higher level than that of current state-of-the-art NWP models in predicting precipitation,e.g.,the spatial correlation between ensemble spread and absolute forecast error has reached 0.5 or higher at 87 h（3.5 d） lead time on average for some meteorological variables.This demonstrates that the current operational ensemble system has already had preliminary capability of predicting the forecast error with usable skill,which is a remarkable achievement as of today.Given the good spread-skill relation,the probability derived from the ensemble was also statistically reliable,which is the most important feature a useful probabilistic forecast should have.The second part of this research tested an ensemble-based interactive targeting（E-BIT） method.Unlike other mathematically-calculated objective approaches,this method is subjective or human interactive based on information from an ensemble of forecasts.A numerical simulation study was performed to eight real atmospheric cases with a 10-member,bred vector-based mesoscale ensemble using the NCEP regional spectral model（RSM,a sub-component of NCEP SREF） to prove the concept of this E-BIT method.The method seems to work most effective for basic atmospheric state variables,moderately effective for convective instabilities and least effective for precipitations.Precipitation is a complex result of many factors and,therefore,a more challenging field to be improved by targeted observation.  相似文献   

汶川地震前后的气象异常   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

石俊  王维侠  温敬霞 《云南天文台台刊》2010,(1):78-84

有研究认为局地气象异常与地震之间存在着一定的相关性,那么震惊中外的汶川大地震前后有没有气象异常呢？应用NCEP再分析资料,以1988—2007年20年间局地气象要素的平均值和标准偏差为基准,通过构建气象异常指数对2008年5月12日汶川发生的大地震前后的日平均气温、日最高气温、日最低气温、日平均降水强度和日平均气压等5项气象要素指标的异常状况进行了分析,结果表明在地震前2个月的时间内有异常状况出现,并且其变化幅度和持续时间都比较长,在地震过后这些异常并未立即消失;从5项气象要素异常空间分异来看,汶川是气象异常的中心地带,表征了汶川地震与局地气象之间存在着一定的相关性。尽管气象异常是否是地震发生的必然前兆尚待进一步考证,但出现在汶川特大地震前后的气象异常再次给我们一个提示,即气象异常与地震的关系值得深入研究。  相似文献   

NCEP集合预报系统在亚欧和北美区域的预报效果对比   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

段明铿  王盘兴  李驰钦 《南京气象学院学报》2012,(6):641-651

使用NCEP集合预报系统（EPS）输出的500hPa位势高度场预报资料和相应的NCEP／NCAR再分析资料,针对集合平均预报和概率预报,采用多种预报效果检验评价方法,对该系统在亚欧和北美区域的预报效果进行全面的分析比较。总体而言,NCEP—EPS对亚欧区域的环流集合预报效果不亚于其对北关区域的预报效果。1）ACC检验表明,亚欧区域的集合平均预报效果在除冬季外的三个季节都明显优于北美区域,可用预报的时效相差达0．6～1d,且夏季的差别最大。RMSE检验表明,亚欧区域的预报效果在四个季节里均优于北美区域。2）集合概率预报可靠性的季节差别不明显,均为预报时效较短（长）时,北关（亚欧）区域的可靠性更好。系统对亚欧区域的事件识别范围相对较小,但其预报可靠性较高,北美区域则正好相反。3）夏季亚欧区域的集合概率预报效果明显优于北美区域,秋季和冬季北关区域的预报效果较好,春季在预报时效小于5d时北美区域占优,而其后则是亚欧区域的预报分辨能力更好。  相似文献   

NCEP再分析资料在强对流环境分析中的应用   总被引：11，自引：3，他引：8       下载免费PDF全文

王秀明  俞小鼎  朱禾 《应用气象学报》2012,23(2):139-146

为考察NCEP再分析资料在我国强对流天气产生环境分析中的适用性,选取2002—2009年多普勒天气雷达识别的60例超级单体风暴个例,对比分析常规探空资料和NCEP再分析资料提取的温、湿、风垂直廓线,结果表明:NCEP再分析资料计算的对流有效位能因对抬升气团湿度敏感而与观测间差异较大,宜用K指数、温度直减率分析大气层结稳定度;因对流层中高层风与探空差异不大,其中500~700 hPa的风与探空近乎一致,因此NCEP再分析资料计算的深层、中层风垂直切变参量可靠性较高;NCEP再分析资料水汽参数与探空资料差异大,特别是在大气边界层,需用观测资料订正;边界层物理量,特别是风向与探空差异显著,因此不宜用NCEP再分析资料讨论雷暴触发问题;平均而言,NCEP再分析资料湿度廓线低层偏干而中层偏湿,925 hPa以上风速偏小,降低了强对流发生概率。  相似文献   

Pressure and temperature feasibility of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data at Mt. Everest     

Aihong Xie  Jiawen Ren  Xiang Qin  Shikang Kang 《山地科学学报》2008,5(1):32-37

Mt.Everest （27°54＇ N,86°54＇ E）,the highest peak,is often referred to as the earth＇s ＇third＇ pole,at an elevation of 8844.43 m. Due to the difficult logistics in the extreme high elevation regions over the Himalayas,observational meteorological data are very few on Mt. Everest. In 2005,an automatic weather station was operated at the East Rongbuk glacier Col of Mt. Everest over the Himalayas. The observational data have been compared with the reanalysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR）,and the reliability of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data has been investigated in the Himalayan region,after the reanalyzed data were interpolated in the horizontal to the location of Mt. Everest and in the vertical to the height of the observed sites. The reanalysis data can capture much of the synoptic-scale variability in temperature and pressure,although the reanalysis values are systematically lower than the observation. Furthermore,most of the variability magnitude is,to some degree,underestimated. In addition,the variation extracted from the NCEP/NCAR reanalyzed pressure and temperature prominently appears one-day lead to that from the observational data,which is more important from the standpoint of improving the safety of climbers who attempt to climb Mt. Everest peak.  相似文献   

非结构网格模型在闽东沿海台风浪模拟中的应用          下载免费PDF全文

何佳 《应用海洋学学报》2019,38(1):75-83

基于加密的非结构三角网格，以Holland模型风场叠加美国国家环境预报中心（NCEP）海面风场构造的合成风场驱动第三代浅水波浪数值模型（SWAN）对2017年影响闽东海域的“纳沙”和“泰利”台风过程进行数值模拟，并运用浮标站的实测数据对模拟结果进行验证.结果表明，模型计算的风速、有效波高与实测值符合较好，合成风场能较好地模拟台风期间的风速变化过程，SWAN模式能够合理地再现闽东沿海台风浪的时空分布特征.由模拟结果可见：台风“纳沙”中心越过台湾岛进入台湾海峡北部海面，受海峡地形的约束，其波浪场呈NE—SW向椭圆状分布，北部海域的浪高大于南部，闽东沿海遍布大范围的巨浪到狂浪；超强台风“泰利”未登陆闽东，当其台风中心与大陆的距离最近时，海面波浪场分布与台风风场结构一致，台风中心附近海域为14 m以上的怒涛区，巨浪遍布于闽东沿海.研究结果可为闽东沿海台风浪灾害预警和应急管理提供技术支撑和参考依据.  相似文献   

基于南海夏季风季节内振荡的降水延伸预报试验   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

陈官军  魏凤英  姚文清  周璇 《应用气象学报》2016,27(3):273-284

利用代表南海夏季风季节内振荡特征的850 hPa纬向风EOF分解的前两个主成分,定义南海夏季风季节内振荡指数,并利用美国国家环境预测中心第2代气候预报系统 (NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2, NCEP/CFSv2) 提供的1982—2009年逐日回算预报场计算了南海夏季风季节内振荡指数的预报值,用于我国南方地区持续性强降水的预报试验。试验结果表明:利用南海夏季风季节内振荡实时监测指数与模式直接预报降水量相结合的统计动力延伸预报方法,能够有效提高季节内降水分量的预报效果。同时,该方法能够避免末端数据损失,修正了对模式预报降水直接进行带通滤波而导致的负相关现象,并起到消除模式系统误差的作用。  相似文献   

国外几套再分析资料的对比与分析   总被引：8，自引：3，他引：5  

邓小花  翟盘茂  袁春红 《气象科技》2010,38(1):1-8

针对目前最主要的3种再分析资料NCEP、ECMWF、JMA,从各家再分析中心所采用的同化方案、所用到的数据、质量控制方法及相关的偏差校正方法方面,进行相关介绍和对比,以便对再分析资料的特点有更为充分的了解,对我国未来再分析工作的发展起到借鉴作用。通过对比发现,各家再分析中心采用的同化方案主要为三维、四维变分方法和最优插值法。各家最主要的差别在于所选用的数据类型不同,以及所采用模式在分辨率上的差异。此外,还从经验出发简要给出了各类再分析资料在不同方面的优缺点,从而为各类再分析资料的选择使用方面提供参考。简单陈述了国内再分析工作的进展,并给出了提高我国再分析工作质量所需要关注和亟待解决的问题。  相似文献