莎车Ms5．2地震天体引潮力和温度异常初探     

尼鲁帕尔·买买吐孙  张永仙  马未宇  阿里木江·亚力坤 《地震地磁观测与研究》2012,33(3):26-31

对2011年12月1日莎车Ms5．2地震的天体引潮力周期变化过程进行计算,并根据该周期分析了NCEP温度数据资料,提取地震前的异常增温变化图像。结果表明：天体引潮力对处于临界状态的活动断层具有诱发作用;震前温度变化发生明显异常,经历起始增温一异常加强一高峰一衰减一平静的演化过程;出现温度异常位置与震中位置有较好的空间对应关系;NCEP温度异常研究在地震前兆研究中有较好的实用价值。  相似文献   

全球海域大风频率精细化统计分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

郑崇伟 《广东海洋大学学报》2013,(6):77-81

利用1999年8月-2009年7月高精度、高分辨率的QN（QuikSCAT／NCEP）混合风场,对全球海域6级以上的大风频率进行统计分析,为航海、防灾减灾、海洋能开发等提供科学依据。结果表明,全球海域6级以上大风频率具有很大的区域性、季节性差异：1）南北半球西风带海域的大风频率明显高于其余海域,尤其是南印度洋“咆哮西风带”海域出现频率最高,高值中心在60％以上。30°N以内低纬度大范围海域的大风频率整体较低,基本在10％以内,仅在阿拉伯海、琉球群岛——台湾岛——南海大风区一带、南印度洋的马达加斯加——澳大利亚一带存在以东西向椭圆状海域,在20％-40％;2）冬半球的大风频率远大于夏半球,1、4、10月南北半球西风带海域的大风频率明显强于其余海域,7月南半球西风带海域的大风频率较高,北半球大部分海域在10％以内,阿拉伯海、孟加拉湾、南中国海,由于受到强劲西南季风的影响,为北半球的大风频率相对大值区,尤其是阿拉伯海大部分海域在50％以上,大值中心甚至高达90％以上。  相似文献   

DIFFERENCES OF SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON DERIVED BY NCEP AND ECMWF REANALYSIS DATA     

ZHENG Bin  GU De-jun  LI Chun-hui 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2006,12(2):197-200

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A PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THUNDERSTORM FORECAST WITH LS-SVM METHOD     

王振会  张祎  朱佳 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2013,19(1):104-108

The LS-SVM(Least squares support vector machine) method is presented to set up a model to forecast the occurrence of thunderstorms in the Nanjing area by combining NCEP FNL Operational Global Analysis data on 1.0°×1.0° grids and cloud-to-ground lightning data observed with a lightning location system in Jiangsu province during 2007-2008.A dataset with 642 samples,including 195 thunderstorm samples and 447 non-thunderstorm samples,are randomly divided into two groups,one(having 386 samples) for modeling and the rest for independent verification.The predictors are atmospheric instability parameters which can be obtained from the NCEP data and the predictand is the occurrence of thunderstorms observed by the lightning location system.Preliminary applications to the independent samples for a 6-hour forecast of thunderstorm events show that the prediction correction rate of this model is 78.26%,false alarm rate is 21.74%,and forecasting technical score is 0.61,all better than those from either linear regression or artificial neural network.  相似文献   

新疆大气水汽通量及其净收支的计算和分析   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

刘蕊  杨青 《中国沙漠》2010,30(5):1221-1228

通过对NCEP 2.5°×2.5°再分析资料与NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料和探空资料的比较,讨论了该资料在新疆的适用性,并在此基础上计算和分析了新疆1948—2007年60 a的大气水汽通量及其净收支情况。结果表明,新疆大气水汽输送主要受三支水汽输送带影响：西伯利亚和蒙古方向的西北风水汽输送带、孟加拉湾路径到达新疆南部的西南风水汽输送带和来自大西洋的西风水汽输送带;夏季新疆主要受两股水汽通量影响,即西风和西北风,冬季新疆则主要受西风水汽输送带的影响,仅南疆盆地受来自青藏高原中西部的西南暖湿气流的影响;新疆地区空中水汽1978年以前主要来源于经向输送,而1978年以后纬向输送增加,其水汽净收支由经向和纬向水汽共同提供,但经向水汽的贡献仍最大。  相似文献   

Short-term Climate Characteristics at Ny-lesund over the Arctic Tundra Area     

邓海滨  陆龙骅  卞林根 《极地研究(英文版)》2005,(2)

Based on the Germany Koldwey Station's 1994-2003 conventional ob-servation hourly data,this paper conducts a statistical analysis on the short-termclimate characteristics for an arctic tundra region(Ny-lesund island)where ourfirst arctic expedition station(Huanghe Station)was located.Affected by theNorth Atlantic warming current,this area has a humid temperate climate,andthe air temperature at Ny-lesund rose above 0℃ even during deep winter sea-son during our research period.The wind speed in this area was low and appearedmost at southeast direction.We find that the temperature at Ny-lesund rose inthe faster rate(0.68℃/10 a)than those at the whole Arctic area.Comparedwith the floating ices where our expedition conducted in the Arctic,Ny-lesundwas warmer and more humid and had lower wind speed.Comparison of the nearsurface air temperature derived by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis to the conventionalmeasurements conducted at the Koldwey site in Ny-lesund area shows a good a-greement for winter season and a significant difference for summer season.  相似文献   

块体空气动力算法的再计算湍通量与NCEP湍通量的比较   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

史剑  赵栋梁  孙建 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2006,36(Z1):15-19

以NCEP资料提供的水文气象参数作为输入量,利用4种块体空气动力算法重新计算了动量和热量通量,与相应的NCEP自身提供的湍通量进行了比较分析,发现再计算动量、感热和潜热通量的偏差值随风速增加而增大;在中高风速下,再计算动量通量的相对误差较小,其他情况下再计算动量、感热和潜热通量的相对误差最高能达到50%左右;相对误差一般随纬度的增大而增大,表明两者之间存在不协调性。研究还表明,改进后的NCEP2资料与NCEP1资料相比,这种不协调性并没有得到改善。  相似文献   

Sensitivity of the Interannual Kuroshio Transport Variation South of Japan to Wind Dataset in OGCM Calculation   总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1  

Hiroshi Yoshinari  Motoyoshi Ikeda  Kiyoshi Tanaka  Yukio Masumoto 《Journal of Oceanography》2004,60(2):341-350

Numerical experiments were carried out using OGCM (Ocean General Circulation Model), MOM2.2 (Modular Ocean Model Ver. 2.2), over realistic topography data, ETOPO5 (Earth Topography - 5 Minute), to investigate the interannual variability of the Kuroshio transport in 1960–2000 south of Japan; 1) the PN line located off the East China Sea, and 2) the ASUKA (Affiliated Surveys of the Kuroshio off Cape Ashizuri) line located off Cape Ashizuri. We adopted two wind datasets as driving forces of the OGCM: 1) the NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis monthly mean wind stress data, and 2) the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts) daily wind data. In the ECMWF experiments we replaced the NCEP/NCAR data only in 1979–1993 because of the availability of the data. The OGCMs and observation basically agree on the temporal variation patterns of the transports until 1986 on the PN line with correlation coefficients of about 0.6. During the 1990s, when data were collected on the ASUKA line, the NCEP/NCAR experiments give lower correlation coefficients (less than 0.3), on both PN and ASUKA lines, while the ECMWF experiments have a higher value on the ASUKA line (0.5). One of the reasons for the disagreement between the observations and OGCMs during the 1990s might arise from the NCEP/NCAR data. An additional analysis of a wind-driven circulation was performed to examine the sensitivity of integrated Sverdrup transport along the western boundary to the propagation speed of a baroclinic Rossby wave, which is varied by stratification. A variation of the stratification, which might be induced by variability of air-sea heat and freshwater fluxes, cannot be a main cause of the disagreement. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Seasonal Prediction for May Rainfall over Southern China Based on the NCEP CFSv2     

李婵珠  杨崧  莫伟强  张劲梅  魏维 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2022,28(1):29-44

In this study, we assess the prediction for May rainfall over southern China (SC) by using the NCEP CFSv2 outputs. Results show that the CFSv2 is able to depict the climatology of May rainfall and associated circulations. However, the model has a poor skill in predicting interannual variation due to its poor performance in capturing related anomalous circulations. In observation, the above-normal SC rainfall is associated with two anomalous anticyclones over the western tropical Pacific and northeastern China, respectively, with a low-pressure convergence in between. In the CFSv2, however, the anomalous circulations exhibit the patterns in response to the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), demonstrating that the model overestimates the relationship between May SC rainfall and the ENSO. Because of the onset of the South China Sea monsoon, the atmospheric circulation in May over SC is more complex, so the prediction for May SC rainfall is more challenging. In this study, we establish a dynamic-statistical forecast model for May SC rainfall based on the relationship between the interannual variation of rainfall and large-scale ocean-atmosphere variables in the CFSv2. The sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the northeastern Pacific and the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, and the 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies over western Siberia in previous April, which exert great influence on the SC rainfall in May, are chosen as predictors. Furthermore, multiple linear regression is employed between the predictors obtained from the CFSv2 and observed May SC rainfall. Both cross validation and independent test show that the hybrid model significantly improve the model''s skill in predicting the interannual variation of May SC rainfall by two months in advance.  相似文献   

NCEP/NCAR再分析气温在南极中山站-Dome A考察断面的适用性研究     

谢爱红  效存德  任贾文 《冰川冻土》2010,32(5)

以东南极冰盖边缘地带LGB69、冰盖内陆Eagle、冰盖顶点Dome A自动气象站2005—2006年记录的日平均气温为基础,辅以南极大陆边缘中山站2005年的连续气温资料,根据4个站点的海拔、气温、气压和地形,选择最接近气象站观测点的气压层,通过改进的9格点反距离加权内插法,分析NCEP/NCAR再分析气温在该断面的适用性.结果表明:NCEP/NCAR再分析气温与中山站、LGB69站、Eagle站和Dome A站实际观测值之间的相关系数分别高达0.624、0.648、0.744和0.705(p0.001,n≥365),能够反映本地区气温的年变化和季节变化.但与实测值相比,再分析资料具有气温普遍偏高、年温差和标准偏差偏小、春夏季适用性强而秋冬季适用性差等特点.此外,从南极冰盖边缘至内陆,再分析气温误差有增大的趋势.  相似文献